DFS Alerts
Targeting pitchers who are giving up hard contact: Much like Archer yesterday, it is viable to use Verlander at SP and to target him with Orioles bats
Much like Chris Archer yesterday, Justin Verlander has had an impressive last two weeks, holding an elite xFIP of 2.79 but is giving up an immense amount of hard contact. Over that period, Verlander is giving up hard contact on 46% of at-bats that have ended in contact. Verlander’s 20.00 K/BB helps his cause, powered mainly by a 37% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. His opponent today will be the Orioles, a team that has respectable 20% strikeout rate as a team over the last week, making both Verlander and the Orioles bats boom or bust options today. For those who play multiple-entry GPPs, it would not be a bad strategy to get exposure to both Verlander and the Orioles RHBs (Jones/Machado/Trumbo/Schoop), since Verlander has been slightly worse versus RHBs (4.17 xFIP vs. RHBs this season).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo
Targeting pitchers who are giving up hard contact: Use Freddie Freeman
The theme of the weekend is pitchers who do not strike out many batters but give up an above average amount of hard contact. The Mets and Braves game will continue that theme, considering Seth Lugo, the Mets starter, has a hard contact percentage of 43% over the last two weeks, paired with a strikeout rate of 23%. This k-rate is actually fairly respectable, so it probably will not be a good idea to stack the Braves. Still, using a batter who holds a 156 wRC+ versus RHP like Freddie Freeman is not a bad strategy. However, Freeman will strikeout with the best of them, whiffing in 23% of at-bats versus RHP. Look to Freeman as a high-risk/high-reward option at the always crucial first base position.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Seth Lugo Kenta Maeda looks to continue his string of solid outings
Kenta Maeda looks to continue his strong run, building on a 2.52 SIERA over the last fourteen days. Over that period, Maeda has a GB% of 52%, a strikeout rate of 33%, and an elite 22% hard contact allowed rate. Over the last week, Maeda’s opponent has a team ISO of 0.124 and an average K rate of 22%. The Marlins have a dearth of LHBs that can take advantage of Maeda’s 4.81 xFIP against LHB, relying on Christian Yelich when they face RHPs. If Maeda can successfully navigate around Christian Yelich and Justin Bour today, he is in a good position to go deep into the game and rack up a decent number of strikeouts.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Justin Bour 3 Reasons to stack Rays
Reason # 1: Luis Cessa is only striking out 10% of batters over the last two weeks and is giving up a 41% fly ball percentage, paired with a 34% hard contact rate on at-bats that have ended in contact. Reason # 2: Cessa is giving up fly ball percentages over 35% to batters on both sides of the plate in recent starts while allowing slightly more hard contact to LHBs. Reason # 3: The Rays have three LHBs who are hitting the ball well over the last week, led by Logan Morrison, who has a 50% hard contact percentage in at-bats that ended in contact. Additionally, Kevin Kiermaier and Corey Dickerson both have greater than 30% of hard contact rates over that same period.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kevin Kiermaier, Corey Dickerson, Luis Cessa Roth's weather update includes news about rain that may impact the CIN-PIT game in the later innings
Roth’s updated weather report has assigned the CIN-PITgame YELLOW/ORANGE and mentions the possibility of a late-inning delay. Check out his updated report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Hamels's hard contact allowed has led to short outings in recent starts
Cole Hamels has hit a rough patch over his last couple of outings, and his batted ball statistics point to why he may be struggling. Over the last 30 days, Hamels is giving up hard contact on 41% of at-bats that end in contact, while striking out 25% of hitters. It is the sport of baseball, so anything could happen, but it sure seems like an Angels team that has Albert Pujols and Mike Trout hitting the ball well could spell trouble for Hamels. Both Angels are hitting the baseball hard in greater than 44% of their at-bats over the last week that have ended in contact, while each is striking out less than 14% of the time. In recent outings, Hamels has depended greatly on his strikeouts, failing to induce much soft contact, which should lead to productive at-bats for Trout and Pujols.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Cole Hamels DJ LeMahieu will bat second and face Christian Friedrich today
Christian Friedrich has stark L/R splits, allowing an xFIP of 5.44 versus RHBs, compared to a much more respectable 3.50 xFIP versus lefties. The southpaw will face the Rockies today, a team who has a couple of formidable right-handed bats. Nolan Arenado is the biggest name on the Rockies, but it is DJ LeMahieu who boasts the largest wRC+ totals versus LHP. LeMahieu’s wRC+ vs. LHP is 136, compared to Arenado’s more modest 106, although Arenado does best LeMaheiu in power, holding a 0.235 ISO against LHP (DJ’s ISO vs. LHP is 0.177).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Christian Friedrich, Nolan Arenado Eric Hosmer will enjoy a ballpark upgrade against a flyball pitcher today
James Shields has had mediocre peripherals for the majority of the year and his last month has been no different. Over the last 30 days, he has a strikeout rate south of 15% and is allowing 39% hard contact on at-bats that end with contact. This kind of hard contact, combined with Shields’s 38% fly ball percentage over that same period, is a recipe for trouble, making Eric Hosmer a viable mid-tier first baseman. Hosmer holds a 118 wRC+ this year versus righties and holds a respectable 0.170 ISO. Hosmer will be enjoying a ballpark upgrade according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, considering U.S. Cellular has a 1.04 home run rating for lefties, compared to Kauffman’s stadium measly 0.91 home run rating.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: James Shields Mike Napoli will face Hector Santiago, a flyball pitcher, in a home run neutral park
Hector Santiago will face an Indians team that has at least two known lefty-smashers in Mike Napoli and Brandon Guyer. Santiago’s susceptibility versus RHBs has been well documented, and his 50% fly ball percentage and 37% hard hit percentage allowed to RHBs fully support using RHBs for the Indians today. Napoli’s 0.220 ISO against LHP makes him an elite option in a park that is neutral for home run power to RHBs, sitting at 1.02 on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Hector Santiago Curtis Granderson is on fire and facing a pitcher who has been giving up plenty of line drives
John Gant has been giving up plenty of hard contact in recent starts, allowing hard contact on 47% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last two weeks. His 26% k rate is above average, but may not be elite enough to make up for such a bloated hard contact percentage. He has limited his fly balls, only holding a 20% fly ball rate, but his 33% line drive rate reflects the solid wood that hitters have been putting on Gant’s pitches. Curtis Granderson was worth using yesterday, and he is worth using again today. Granderson has a 318 wRC+ over the last week, with an elite 9 % k rate over that period. Look for Curtis to hit a couple of hard line drives today, and maybe even get one elevated enough to get over the fence.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: John Gant Ubaldo Jimenez is facing the Tigers and Victor Martinez will be batting from the left side of the plate (PLAY HIM!)
Ubaldo has been helping DFS players make successful lineups on their mobile phones for years, consistently giving up predictable production to LHBs. This year has been no different, holding an xFIP of 5.36 and giving up a fly ball percentage of 39% to LHBs. Sadly, the Tigers only have one legitimate left-handed hitter to exploit Ubaldo’s susceptibility to LHBs in Victor Martinez. Victor boasts a 0.203 ISO against righties this year, and offers a more than respectable floor, striking out only 14% of the time versus RHP. Look to J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera as additional Tigers to include in a stack, since the two RHBs hold wRC+ totals against RHP of 163 and 145, respectively.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez Max Scherzer is the quintessential cash game SP option today versus the Phillies
While it is baseball, a sport with high variance, fading chalk in matchups as positive as Max Scherzer’s situation today seems a bit too contrarian. So, fade Max Scherzer if you insist, but know he is in a ridiculously positive set of circumstances. Over the last two weeks, Scherzer’s peripherals indicate that he is on the rise, striking out 27% of batters and surrendering an impressive 17% hard contact rate. On the flip side, his opponent has ZERO batters with a wRC+ total greater than 130 over the last week. Additionally, of the four Phillies with wRC+ totals over 100, two are striking out more than 20% of the time in the last seven days. Even if one Philly manages to put one out of the yard, Scherzer should more than make up for it with a copious amount of strikeouts and the win.
As reported by: FanGraphs Andrew McCutchen looks to make hard contact against rookie pitcher Robert Stephenson
Robert Stephenson has only pitched one game for the Reds since the All-Star break, and he showed why rookies can be hard to predict. Stephenson struck out 9 batters in only 5.1 innings, but surrendered 2 home runs and gave up a hard contact on 55% of balls that were put into play. Worth noting is that in the minors this year, Stephenson surprisingly performed better against LHBs, allowing an OPS to lefties of 0.647, compared to an OPS of 0.767 versus righties. While it is tempting to endorse Stephenson as a boom or bust SP option because of his strikeout upside, the Pirates only have one batter whiffing more than 25% of the time over the last week in David Freese, and Freese is not even in the lineup today. Andrew McCutchen has an impressive 0.241 ISO over the last week and looks like a prime candidate to take advantage of Stephenson’s hard contact allowed.
As reported by: Baseball Reference and FanGraphs Other tagged players: Robert Stephenson Brian McCann is facing Chris Archer in New York and makes for a boom or bust option at the C position
Chris Archer has a phenomenal 2.59 xFIP over the last 14 days, striking out a ridiculous 36% of batters over that period. If Archer has had one flaw in his peripheral statistics over that period, it would be his hard contact allowed, sitting at 45% for at-bats that have ended in contact. Brian McCann has a 198 wRC+ over the last week and looks to be a legitimate batter with which to target Archer in a game taking place at Yankees Stadium. McCann’s best L/R, home/away split combination is at home versus RHP, where he holds a 118 wRC+ total. Consider McCann a high-risk/high-reward option at the always tricky catcher position.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Archer It may be wise to avoid both sides of the Felix-Athletics matchup
Felix Hernandez is facing an Athletics team that has been relatively punchless over the last week, with only one batter, Danny Valencia, holding a wRC+ greater than 150 over that period. However, Felix Hernandez has a ballooned SIERA of 5.75 over the last couple of weeks, striking out only 15% of batters and living off of inducing soft contact. Even if Felix can avoid a few of the A’s power bats like Danny Valencia today and limit production, his upside appears to be limited, with only two A’s striking out more than 25% of the time over the last seven days. It may be wise to avoid both A’s hitters and Felix this afternoon.
As reported by: FanGraphs