DFS Alerts
Jorge Soler will bat 4th for the Cubs and face Collin McHugh at Minute Maid Park
At this point in the season, DFS players know that Anthony Rizzo and Khris Bryant are likely to find success against any average to below average pitcher. However, Joe Maddon has continued to mix up his lineup throughout the year, presenting us with different values from week to week. Today’s value of the day is Jorge Soler who will bat cleanup and face Collin McHugh, a pitcher with an xFIP of 4.13 versus RHBs. Soler is not a low-floor play, holding a 23% k rate versus righties, but does boast the upside of a 0.183 ISO versus RHP. Look to Soler as a value play in the outfield today in a park that holds a 1.12 home run rating for RHBs, according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
Roth's weather report highlights a relatively quiet day of weather with CIN-PIT and TB-NYY receiving YELLOW weather ratings
Kevin Roth has released his Saturday Weather Report, and it looks to be a quiet day of weather, considering that YELLOW ratings in Pittsburgh and New York are the most severe ratings of the day. Roth advises keeping an eye on Pittsburgh but expects the game to play. Check out his full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Las Vegas has given the BOS-TOR game a projected 9.5 O/U
Targeting above average pitchers is usually a bad strategy, but Las Vegas agrees that it is a good idea to stack Jays and Red Sox today, projecting an O/U of 9.5. J.A. Happ and Eduardo Rodriguez enter today’s game with two of the highest SIERAs over the last two weeks, sitting at 5.82 and 5.87, respectively. Both pitchers are not this bad, so while there is a possibility that one or both of them pitch better today, a game-stack on both sides is a viable strategy for GPPs. Chris Young, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Hanley Ramirez have hit the ball hard in at least 50% of at-bats ending in contact over the last week. Meanwhile, Edwin Encarnacion, Russel Martin, Jose Bautista, and Josh Donaldson have all hit the ball hard in at least 36% of at-bats ending in contact over the last week. Stacking the Blue Jays and Red Sox will necessitate the use of a low-priced pitcher, but this game in Toronto has the potential have the highest scoring total on the day.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Chris Young Yu Darvish has just a 23.7 K% over the last month, but gets a significant park upgrade and price drop tonight
Yu Darvish struck out a season low in his last outing against the Astros, as his strikeout rate over the last month has now “plummeted” to 23.7%. It’s more apt to call it inconsistency, as he’s still struck out nine in two of his last four starts. Control has become more of an issue, walking 10 of his last 78 batters, and it has been so in a the past at times, but the high strikeout upside is often enough to negate it. His 22.1 K-BB% this year would be fifth best in baseball with enough innings to qualify, so even if the Angels strike out a major league low 15.9% vs RHP, he should gain enough from a significant park upgrade against an offense without much power (10.4 HR/FB vs RHP) to offset it. Add in a price that has dropped just below $10K on DraftKings and there’s more value in an arm you who compares favorably to several higher priced ones tonight. For the Angels, Mike Trout (173 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is matchup proof, not a term often used in daily fantasy baseball, but on top of that, this has been a particularly favorable matchup for him in the past with four HRs in 40 PAs against Darvish, but also 11 Ks.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout
Tyler Skaggs (22.6 K%) may be a viable low end arm in a pitcher's park vs Rangers (100 wRC+ vs LHP)
Tyler Skaggs has an increased 9.5 SwStr% over the last month, bringing his 22.6 season K% more in line with his SwStr rate. Players looking for an arm on the cheap end may be able to consider him for $7.2K on DraftKings. Although RHBs have a .345 wOBA against him and all five of his HRs allowed in eight starts, this will be only his third home start with the first two being against a Boston and a very powerful Seattle lineup. The Rangers are just an average offense vs LHP (100 wRC+) and worse than that on the road (91 wRC+) in a negative run environment tonight. It’s not out of the question that we see a decent effort out of Skaggs tonight. Beltran (164 wRC+, .259 ISO) and Beltre (163 wRC+, .280 ISO), the best bats against RHP this year are priced up a bit, but still playable here, as should be Jonathan Lucroy (110 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP this season) who was really struggling against LHP before the trade. He costs just $3.6K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy A couple of areas with weather concerns in Kevin Roth's Friday forecast
Kevin’s weather report illustrates risk in several areas but the primary concerns come out of games in Chicago and St. Louis, though the most likely scenario is that these games play without any major issues. To further assess risk in those games, players should read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Carlos Rodon has been consistent, but still struggles with RHBs (.344 wOBA, 17 HRs)
Carlos Rodon has pitched between 5.2 and seven innings in all but three starts (just once less than five) and has struck out between five and eight in 17 of 23 starts. That’s remarkable consistency, but not a ton of upside for a cost above $8K. He’s also topped out at six strikeouts over his last five starts and even that just once. He still struggles with RHBs (.344 wOBA with 17 HRs this season) and the Royals do top the order with several bats who hit LHP well. The interesting thing is that we can almost split them in half by site. Morales (126 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP this season) and Cain (159 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP since last season) should be looked at on Fanduel for less than $3.5K, while Orlando (118 wRC+, .165 ISO vs LHP this season) and Cuthbert (137 wRC+, .170 ISO vs LHP this season) cost $3K or less on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Paulo Orlando, Cheslor Cuthbert, Carlos Rodon Giants run total has ballooned to 5.5 runs, making them the highest projected offense tonight
Rubby De La Rosa is returning from an elbow injury to make a brief start tonight due to a strict 50-pitch limit, and Braden Shipley is expected to follow him out of the bullpen. De La Rosa has only made eight starts this year, but he allowed hard contact at a 32.8% clip and will likely not have his best stuff in his return. De La Rosa has also struggled mightily against left-handed batters in his career (4.67 xFIP, .366 wOBA allowed). It’s also a tough matchup against the resilient, patient Giants offense in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona. As for Shipley, he has allowed hard contact at a 41.7% rate and has a 5.52 SIERA in his eight starts. In other words, feel free to load up all the Giants left-handed batters in tournaments. Brandon Belt (128 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .188 ISO vs RHP), Angel Pagan (115 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .142 ISO vs RHP), and Brandon Crawford (.193 ISO vs RHP) would be our top targets.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Angel Pagan, Brandon Crawford, Rubby De La Rosa, Braden Shipley Cleveland lines up seven LHBs against RHP with a reverse split (RHBs .383 wOBA against Duffey)
Tyler Duffey was banished to AAA at the end of August. He made two starts there, striking out 15 of 57 batters, but also uncharacteristically walking five of them and allowing four HRs in the more recent one. He’s had decent peripherals in the majors (13.3 K-BB% over 173 career innings), but struggled with hard contact this year (33.6 Hard% and 22 HRs in 115 innings). More than half of them came at home against RHBs (13), as he’s shown a reverse platoon split (RHBs .383 wOBA against him since last season). Naturally, a manager who keeps his most potent bat batting eighth (Tyler Naquin 144 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP) would have just one RH batter in the first eight. At least Mike Napoli (111 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is batting cleanup and costs a reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings. He and Naquin are also the only two batters in the first eight with a wRC+ below 108 over the last week. Projected for 4.8 runs tonight, Cleveland batters should be considered, as the top three in the order all have a 120+ wRC+ vs RHP this season, but exposure would probably be more efficient on Fanduel where they all cost less than $4K.
Other tagged players: Tyler Naquin, Tyler Duffey Madison Bumgarner faces an offense with a 20.0 HR/FB vs LHP in Arizona
Madison Bumgarner does have three starts of just five innings with four or five runs since the start of August, but perhaps had his best outing since the break, striking out 10 of 25 Cubs last time out. His 27.8 K% is still a career high, though his estimators and walk rate are a bit higher with the ERA a bit lower with a career high 80.5 LOB%. The concern today is a dangerous park against an offense that mashes LHP (111 wRC+, 20.0 HR/FB) and is now even better with the return of A.J. Pollock (132 wRC+, .176 ISO vs LHP since 2015). They do strike out 23% of the time against southpaws, so Bumgarner is not entirely off the board for a reasonable $11K on either site and there’s not much interested in attacking him, though the Arizona bats are much cheaper than normal. Only Goldschmidt (183 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who has a 101 mph aEV on his last 13 batted balls against Bumgarner, costs more than $4K on DK or $3K on FD.
Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt Jimmy Nelson has an abysmal 2.1% K-BB% versus LHB
Jimmy Nelson has been living dangerously, with nine walks and just five strikeouts in his last two starts. This season Nelson has 16 starts with at least three walks, and with a career-low 17.1% strikeout rate, there is no reason to have an increased walk rate as well. His only real skill is inducing ground balls (50.7%), but he manages a just-above-average ground ball rate to left-handed batters while allowing a ton of hard hits (37.3%). Matt Carpenter (148 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .271 ISO vs RHP), Brandon Moss (130 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .328 ISO vs RHP) and Kolten Wong are the top plays here with the notorious issues Nelson has with left-handed batters.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Kolten Wong, Jimmy Nelson Carlos Martinez has a 42.7 K% against the Brewers and an 18.4 K% against the rest of the league
Carlos Martinez has struck out 13, 11 and eight Brewers in three starts against them this season. In fact, he has a 42.7 K% against the Brewers and an 18.4 K% against the rest of the league this year. His ground ball rates in those games: 71.4%, 85.7% and 63.2%. Projecting him to live up to those expectations once again may be a mistake, but this is an offense that strikes out a ton (25.5% vs RHP) and is without their top bat tonight (Ryan Braun is out). Martinez certainly has the upside to beat $10K in this spot at home. Projected for just over three runs, there’s no interest in Milwaukee bats against a pitcher who has dominated them this season.
Danny Salazar has a 43.7 K%, 59.1 GB% and 9.1 Hard% over his last two starts
Danny Salazar has a 43.7 K%, 59.1 GB% and 9.1 Hard% over his last two starts. That certainly sounds like a much healthier pitcher than the guy who struggled in his first two starts back from the DL. The Twins actually have the highest team wRC+ (152) over the last week, but are an otherwise neutral offense (97 wRC+ at home and vs RHP) in a park that doesn’t play strongly one way or the other. Salazar is one of the top arms on an All-Star pitching board tonight and may be one of the most cost efficient for less than $10K on either site (just $9K on DraftKings). Miguel Sano (126 wRC+,.243 ISO vs RHP career) may still be worth a look for $3.6K or less on either site. He has a 184 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week, while Salazar has virtually no platoon split. Brian Dozier (133 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP this season) has been pounding everybody (336 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days), but may be priced out in a bad spot ($5.4K on DK, $4.2K on FD).
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano Rays implied run total has plummeted to just 3.5 runs
Michael Pineda is firmly in the running for most frustrating pitcher to roster this season. All of his peripheral stats scream that he should be performing better than he has been. We’ve been waiting for that .343 BABIP and 16.2% HR/FB rate of Pineda to correct themselves for months now. It’s virtually unheard of for a pitcher to have a 5.10 ERA while also owning a 3.44 SIERA. His strikeout rate of 26.3% is also well above league average. Most of his struggles are due to the fact that he has allowed quite a bit of hard contact (33.7%). However, Pineda draws an absolutely fantastic matchup against a Tampa Bay squad that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate and ranks just 16th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. It’s reasonable to have exposure to Pineda in all formats on this slate with his affordable price tag around the industry.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines There may be more cost efficient options than Jon Lester, now above $12K on DraftKings in Houston
Jon Lester is a quality pitcher with a 24.6 K% and some merit to a 2.61 ERA approximately a run below his estimators due to a great defense behind him (.253 BABIP allowed). However, a trip to Houston costing $12K may be stretching the boundaries of his talent, even if the Astros strike out 25% of the time at home and 22.8% against LHP. He’s not an all out fade, but there are probably more cost efficient options on a star studded pitching board tonight. Players should still tread lightly with Houston bats here, but $4K on DraftKings might make George Springer (162 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP since 2015) slightly interesting.
Other tagged players: George Springer