DFS Alerts
Tim Adleman has allowed seven HRs over his last three starts
Tim Adleman has a 4.02 ERA that’s still about a run below his estimators (two full runs below his FIP) due to a .252 BABIP and 87.8 LOB%. He is missing more bats that expected though (9.7 SwStr%), even if it’s not showing up in his strikeout rate (17.5%). He has allowed 10 HRs in eight starts (seven over his last three) with batters from either side hitting him about equally well. While he does get a significant park upgrade, especially against RH power, there are certainly some Pittsburgh bats to consider, especially for Fanduel players. Jung-Ho Kang (135 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP career) has a 362 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% over the last week, while Andrew McCutchen (125 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been swinging the bat better and costs less than $4K on either site. Josh Bell (154 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP) continues to be an affordable First Base pivot on either site out of the second slot.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell, Tim Adleman
Phillies own one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate (3.3)
Tanner Roark is rarely, if ever, viewed as an exciting daily fantasy option. This is because he tends to be over-priced (tonight is no different) and lacks strikeout upside (19.3% K%). However, Roark does do a great job of limiting hard contact (24.5%) and is bestowed with favorable matchup against the Phillies, especially with Maikel Franco remaining out of the lineup this evening. Roark is certainly viable in cash game formats being a massive home favorite (-262 money line), but we should gladly look elsewhere in tournaments for higher upside.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines
Rick Porcello's price tag likely elevated by his Win total
Rick Porcello has 19 Wins and that’s mentioned not to use it as some sort of assessment of his skills, but because it’s probably elevating his price tag beyond merit. He’s been in the $11K range on DraftKings for a while now with just a league average strikeout rate and a 3.52 FIP with an ERA not much lower. That’s a decent pitcher, but not one who should cost nearly this much in Toronto. The Blue Jays have a 112 wRC+ at home with a 15 HR/FB in this park and vs RHP. The top half of this lineup is reduced in price tonight on DraftKings and should be in play there. All four have at least a 115 wRC+ and .196 ISO vs RHP this season. Encarnacion (who is really too low at $3.9K) and Bautista each have three career HRs against Porcello, but this is an improved pitcher.
Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Rick Porcello Nationals have tonight's highest run projection (5.7) against Jake Thompson, but are very expensive
The Nationals are projected for a slate high 5.7 runs against Jake Thompson, who has not pitched very well despite allowing just three runs over 14 innings in his last two starts (five walks, nine strikeouts). In fact, no other offense is even projected to score more than five runs. Batters from the left side have a higher wOBA (.381 to .340), but RHBs have hit him harder (37.3% to 31.6%). The normal candidates – Harper (124 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP this season), Murphy (161 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP this season) and Turner (148 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP this season) – all project well, but cost above $4K on Fanduel and $5K on DraftKings. The top half of the Washington order would be nice to roster (sans Werth), but are players going to be able to afford them among a plethora of expensive pitching options tonight?
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Jake Thompson Snell in boom-or-bust spot on the road at Yankee Stadium
Blake Snell has flashed some of his strikeout potential in his first 15 major league starts, racking up a respectable 23.8% strikeout rate in the process. Unfortunately, he has also totaled a n astronomical 12.7% walk rate. The high walk rate has ballooned his SIERA to 4.61, which would usually indicate that we need to stay away in all formats. However, Snell is intriguing because he has some solid upside in the starts where he does manage to limit his walks. He also matches up well against a Yankees squad that has become more strikout-happy with the influx of their young bats. Snell has held left-handed batters to a .290 wOBA to this point in his career, though his hard hit profile is actually a bit worse against lefties than right-handed batters. Snell is an easy fade in cash games but is certainly in play as a long-shot tournament flier.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Kevin Gausman gets a park upgrade in Detroit, but his reverse split could be an issue against predominantly RH lineup
Kevin Gausman has struck out at least eight in four of his last five starts and though his 11.6 SwStr% over the last month isn’t much higher than his season rate with a 24.1 K%, he’s having a quality season with a park upgrade tonight in Detroit. He’s a reasonable pitching choice for around $9K tonight. The biggest issue here is that he has an extreme platoon split. RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season. Miguel Cabrera (154 wRC+, .218 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (144 wRC+, .251 ISO) have both punished RHP since last season and will likely go under-owned here with a perceived bad matchup and platoon disadvantage (check our Projected Ownership page). A red hot Justin Upton (224 wRC+ last seven days) has hit RHP well in the past (115 wRC+, .208 ISO since last season) and still costs just $3.5K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez, Justin Upton Brault finds himself in one of the better park-adjusted matchups of the night
The overall pitching profile for Steven Brault isn’t anything to write home about, but he is minimum salary on DraftKings and extremely affordable at $5.8K on FanDuel. His SIERA of 4.98 is actually much higher than we would have expected just analyzing his numbers, as he has allowed hard contact just 27.1% of the time and hasn’t exactly been super lucky with an above-average .316 BABIP allowed. The high SIERA is likely primarily due to his 11.5% walk rate, which is obviously concerning. The matchup is a good one at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against the fading Reds offense. Brault was highly owned in his last start, but that came against the strikeout-prone Milwaukee lineup, who players are targeting pitchers against repeatedly nowadays. Brault shouldn’t be as highly owned tonight, and could be a nice option in tournaments to to pay up for expensive bats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Jose Fernandez faces a lineup with only one batter below a 130 wRC+ vs RHP this season
Jose Fernandez has struck out just 11 of his last 55 batters and just 25.5% of batters over the last month. The good news is that four of his last six starts have been on the road and he’s been a better pitcher at home (27.0 K-BB% since last season). He has not struck out fewer than six in any home start this year and only that twice. The Dodgers come to town and they’ve been mashing RHP recently and now have a 109 wRC+, 15.9 HR/FB and 34.5 Hard% against them, which are pretty close to what LHBs have done against Fernandez this season (15.8 HR/FB, 36.9 Hard%). Putting our faith in what Fernandez has previously established as one of the best pitchers in baseball is probably the correct way to go more often than not and he still may be tonight’s top overall arm, but players should consider his issues with LHBs when paying up for him. In fact, after Utley, there is not a single batter in the lineup until the pitcher with a wRC+ below 130 and only Reddick has an ISO below .194 against RHP this season. In fact, for those not on board with Fernandez, at severely depressed price points (everyone except Seager is $3.6K or less on either site), a Dodger stack might be an acceptably contrarian approach tonight. Yasmani Grandal’s cost (below $3K on either site) appears a bit low even for this matchup with a 135 wRC+ and .277 ISO vs RHP this season.
Other tagged players: Chase Utley, Josh Reddick, Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal Marco Estrada has allowed at least five runs in three of last four starts
Marco Estrada has gone no more than five innings with at least five runs in three of his last four starts and has really struggled since injuring his back and missing three weeks in July with a BABIP above .300 since returning. While that makes Boston bats more interesting here, it’s really only Ortiz (175 wRC+, .353 ISO) and Betts (139 wRC+, .225 ISO) who have mashed RHP this year, at least of those in the top half the batting order. Of course, players are paying up to get them, even in what might be considered a marginal matchup. Sandy Leon (129 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP this season) is a reasonably affordable Catcher for around $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Sandy Leon, Marco Estrada Kershaw returns in great spot in Miami, but likely to be limited on a pitch count
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the universe with a 30.8 K-BB% before he went down. He missed over two months and is still second among all pitchers with a 5.5 fWAR. That’s what makes this so hard because he has a really nice matchup in Miami, even though they’ve gotten a little healthier in the power department this week. The Marlins have just one two batters with a wRC+ above 92 vs LHP this season in the lineup, one with an ISO above .150 and one with a wRC+ above 70 over the last week (10 PA min.). No matter how well he pitches, Kershaw would have to be without a protective pitch limit for us to have an expectation of him covering his cost, still the highest on the board. The Marlins are projected for just three runs, but it would probably be even lower if all were right in the world.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Clayton Richard has a 66.2 GB% and a -2.8 Hard-Soft% through four starts
Clayton Richard has a fairly extensive history of not being a good pitcher in this league and his peripherals are still poor through four starts (7.5 K-BB%). He’s dominating at the point of contact though (66.2 GB% and a -2.8 Hard-Soft%), and while we probably can’t consider that sustainable, he’s in a great spot (Rockies 85 wRC+, 16.1 K-BB% on the road) and extremely cheap. At just $4.7K on DraftKings, he may even be the top point per dollar play. RHBs do have a .347 wOBA against him each of the last two seasons, but with hard contact just 28% of the time. It’s extremely difficult to find value here in such a negative run environment with an offense that has only one RHB (Arenado 118 wRC+) that’s an above average hitter on the road, yet he’s still priced as if this game is at Coors. Nick Hundley (119 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP this season) may still be an affordable option at a very weak Catcher position tonight.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Nick Hundley Lucroy OUT against struggling Taijuan Walker (23 ERs last 21.2 IP) in Safeco
Hot/cold streaks are not supposed to be predictive and the overall numbers call this an average pitcher (4.16 SIERA, 20.1 K%) facing an average offense (98 wRC+ vs RHP), but Taijuan Walker has gotten shelled for 23 ERs in 21.2 innings over his last five starts, spanning two months due to a lingering foot injury, which may make recent numbers more meaningful in this case. He’s allowed eight HRs over that span, striking out just 14 of 104 batters, not even lasting an inning in his last start. Texas is the hottest offense in the league (154 wRC+, 17.6 K%, 37.1 Hard% over the last week). Perhaps tonight, on the short slate, going with the hot bats against the cold pitcher is an interesting way to lean. Walker doesn’t have much of a platoon split at all, but we still want batters who hit RHP well, pushing us towards Mazara (113 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP) and Moreland (103 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP this season) in the value range for around $3.5K or less on either site. Odor (116 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP this season) and Beltran (109 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this season) are the hottest bats, both with a wRC+ right around 230 and a hard hit rate above 45% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Mitch Moreland, Taijuan Walker Derek Holland has a 5.1% K-BB% and 5.65 xFIP versus RHB
The Mariners have actually been swinging the bats very well of late. They also draw a plus matchup against Derek Holland tonight, as he owns a meager 14.3% strikeout rate on the season accompanied by a 30.4% hard hit rate, a 5.18 SIERA, and a 5.27 xFIP. He is a left-handed pitcher with traditional splits, as right-handed batters have a .333 wOBA and a 32.9% hard hit rate against him, compared to a .241 wOBA and an 18.0% hard hit rate for left-handed batters. Obviously, we will want to target Seattle right-handed batters here, but hat does eliminate a few of their better hitters. Nelson Cruz (157 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .312 ISO vs LHP), Franklin Gutierrez (151 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .251 ISO vs LHP), and Dae-Ho Lee (.175 ISO vs LHP) are firmly in play, Guillermo Heredia has been leading off against left-handed pitching of late, and tonight is no different. A Mariners stack of the righties is definitely a strategy to consider for tournaments.
Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee, Guillermo Heredia, Derek Holland A couple of areas with a risk of rain in Kevin's late forecast
With just six games on the night slate, Kevin’s late weather forecast gives us some risk of rain in both Pittsburgh and St Louis, though the most likely scenario has the games playing without major issues. To further assess risk in those games, players should read the full report on our Weather Page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Padres implied run total is on the rise, currently sitting at 4.3 runs
Through his first three major league starts, Jeff Hoffman, has produced some ugly numbers, to put it kindly. He has an ERA of 6.60 matched by a 6.61 SIERA and has allowed hard contact at a 40.0% clip. Hoffman has walked more batters than he has struck out, which is never great. Hoffman did have a 24.2% strikeout rate at the minor league level this season, though he did struggle with his command at times (8.6%). Rostering Hoffman is a move that comes with a ton of risk, but it is one that could really pay off in tournamnents. If expecting Hoffman to continue his gas can-like ways, the heart of the Padres order is where we’ll want to focus. Travis Jankowski is a great bet for a stolen base or two if he can reach base. Yangervis Solarte (121 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .199 ISO vs RHP), Alex Dickerson (.220 ISO vs RHP), and Ryan Schimpf (147 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .364 ISO vs RHP) are the best remaining San Diego bats to consider.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Travis Jankowski, Alex Dickerson