DFS Alerts
Kendrys Morales will look to take advantage of Michael Fulmer's high line drive rate
Michael Fulmer faces one of the easier teams to overlook in DFS, the Royals. However, today may not be the day may not be the day to overlook some of the Royals left-handed bats, after observing that Fulmer has a line drive percentage of 43% over the last 14 days. This line drive rate makes even more sense after noticing Fulmer’s ridiculously high hard hit percentage, sitting at a robust 63% over that same period. Kendrys Morales is absolutely scorching the ball right now, holding a 57% hard contact percentage over the last week, while only striking out in 17% of at-bats. Morales has more power versus LHPs, but still boasts a plenty adequate ISO versus RHP of 0.175. At an always pivotal position, look to Morales as a less popular 1B play in a fantastic situation.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Michael Fulmer
Rockies lefties are always potent at home but get an even larger bump facing Braden Shipley
Braden Shipley is pitching at Coors Field tonight, one of the least favorable environments for pitchers to take the mound in the league. The home run environment for right-handed power and left-handed power at Coors Field is rated by RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors as a 1.23 and 1.20, respectively. The advantageous home run hitting environment for LHBs is not good news for Shipley, since Shipley is surrendering a 45% flyball percentage this year, paired with an above average hard contact percentage of 39%. Any of the three Rockies LHBs with wRC+ totals over 120 are in play tonight, including David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, and of course, Carlos Gonzalez.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Braden Shipley Stack the top of the Nationals lineup, beginning with Trea Turner
Robert Gsellman’s first start was mediocre, seeing that he went 6 innings and surrendered four earned runs. In AA and AAA this year, he posted a 6.9 K/9, so it seems that he is not much of a strikeout pitcher. In the minors, Gsellman did not display drastic platoon splits, allowing an OPS of 0.686 to LHBs, compared to 0.718 to RHBs, so batters like Jayson Werth and Trea Turner are very much in play today. Werth and Turner have been making a large amount of hard contact over the last week, hitting the ball hard on at-bats ending in contact 43% and 35% of the time, respectively. Trea Turner has been a high floor option in recent games, whiffing a respectable 18% of the time over the last week.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jayson Werth, Robert Gsellman Tim Anderson is a sneaky-solid play at the top of the White Sox lineup
When Hector Santiago is pitching well, he generally finds success via a respectable strikeout rate. On the season, Santiago’s 51% flyball percentage is a leading reason why he needs a respectable strikeout rate to avoid home run trouble. Over the last couple of weeks, Santiago has a strikeout rate of 8% and a flyball percentage even higher than usual, sitting at a massive 63%. Most will look to play Todd Frazier and his 110 wRC+ versus LHP, but do not overlook Tim Anderson. Anderson has an above average 130 wRC+ versus LHP and has been seeing the ball well in the last week, hitting the ball hard 43% of the time and only going down on strikes 13% of the time.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Hector Santiago Josh Bell makes a value play at 1B from the two-hole in the Pirates lineup
Ivan Nova faced this same Brewers team on August 28th, and he limited the Brewers to one earned run over six innings but was pulled after only 75 pitches. Nova’s upside appears to be limited by his possible low pitch count and his modest 18% strikeout rate over the last month. This games offensive production will most likely come from the left-handed swinging Pirates bats. Jimmy Nelson holds a 15% strikeout rate versus LHBs on the season and over the last two weeks, Jimmy Nelson is only striking out 10% of batters in general. Unless Nelson turns things around in a hurry, the Pirates lefties like Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco should be in for a productive day PNC Park. Josh Bell, in particular, will serve as a value play, while Polanco makes for an elite higher priced play in the outfield, providing a 0.231 ISO and the potential to steal a base (FanGraphs speed rating of 6.1).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ivan Nova, Jimmy Nelson Eric Aybar scratched, Romine will replace him at 3B
Romine will bat 9th for the Tigers instead of Aybar
Brandon Moss will be batting in a plus environment today at Great American Ball Park
Dan Straily has been putting together respectable outings for much of the last half of the season and has posted an xFIP of 4.00 over the last couple of weeks. Straily has good numbers at home versus lefties, but he is allowing similar batted ball profiles home and away, allowing a fly ball percentage over 42%. The only difference has been Straily’s HR/FB, which has been 4%, a number indicating that Straily has been fairly lucky regarding home runs allowed to LHBs at home. This is especially surprising, considering that Great American Ball Park has a 1.29 rating for left-handed batting home run power according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors. Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss have been swinging the bat well lately, holding hard contact percentages over the last week of 33% and 44%, respectively.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Dan Straily Adrian Beltre looks to take advantage of Joe Musgrove's hard contact allowed
Derek Holland and Joe Musgrove face off today in a game that features two pitchers who have proven to be volatile, making targeting hitters against them a high-risk/high-reward strategy. While both pitchers have had a respectable last month, posting SIERAs under 4.00, Holland is outperforming Musgrove over the last month in a few notable categories, including hard contact allowed, swinging strike rate, and overall strikeout rate. If the Rangers bats are able to take advantage of Musgrove’s hard contact allowed (38% over the last month), the production could come from either side of the plate. Adrian Beltre’s bat is sizzling right now, considering Beltre is making hard contact in 53% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last week, while only striking out 14% of the time over that period.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Joe Musgrove Jonathan Lucroy scratched
Robinson Chirinos will be starting in his place.
Phillips scratched Peraza will start
Jose Peraza will be starting in his place.
Jorge Soler Scratched
Tommy La Stella will be replacing him in the lineup.
Roth's Weather Report mentions that the game in Colorado is worth monitoring
Kevin Roth has rated the Coors Field game as Yellow/Orange, mentioning that the storm looks like many that hit the Colorado area. Monitor this game and check out Roth’s full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Bumgarner appears to have the edge in a battle of aces today in Chicago
Madison Bumgarner will face off against Jake Arrieta today in Chicago. The Cubs have a wRC+ of 117 versus lefties this year, while the Giants hold a more humble 101 wRC+ versus RHP. Both offenses have limited their strikeout versus the respective handedness of the opposing pitcher, whiffing less than 20% of the time. If we were looking for a reason besides the Las Vegas line to favor one of these aces, we could look at each pitcher’s performance over the last two weeks. Arrieta’s peripherals over the last couple of weeks are less than impressive, considering he has a 6.01 SIERA over that period with a ho-hum 16% strikeout rate. On the other hand, Bumgarner has a more respectable 3.82 SIERA over that same period and is whiffing batters 24% of the time. Further supporting the notion of using Bumgarner is the Cubs team wRC+ of 92 over the last week, considerably lower than the Giants wRC+ of 128, good for 3rd best in the league.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jake Arrieta Andrew Triggs has struck out 20 of 80 batters with just one walk last four starts, costs just $4.1K in Oakland
Andrew Triggs has struck out 20 of 80 batters with just a single walk and HR over four starts since being moved into the rotation, allowing seven runs in 21.2 innings with just 22.4% hard contact, reaching the six inning mark with just under 90 pitches in each of his last two. Two of his starts have been in tough environments in St Louis and Texas. Though he does face the top offense in baseball (Boston – 115 wRC+ vs RHP), he does so in a favorable home environment that could help lessen the blow. Even at just $4.1K on DraftKings, he’s expected to be owned at less than 1% on our Projected Ownership page with a few other reasonable arms in his price rage, but he may be the best of them all. In fact, the Red Sox are projected for projected for just 4.2 runs tonight, making this a decent spot to fade their high priced bats.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership
Brett Oberholtzer is surrendering 2.11 HR/9 to RHB this season
Brett Oberholtzer has pitched out of the bullpen this entire season, and hasn’t been a regular starter in the majors since 2014. Even with limited work out of the bullpen, he has struggled against right-handed batters with a 16.4% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and a 5.40 xFIP. Throughout his career Oberholtzer has shown zero ability to limit hard hits (31.3%) or fly balls (43.7%) to righties, and really hasn’t even been any better than average against left-handed batters. Nelson Cruz is the top play for the Mariners with his .394 wOBA and .314 ISO against left-handed pitching. Mike Zunino (.269 ISO vs LHP) is in consideration for tournaments given the power that comes with his high fly balls and hard hits, but his strikeouts makes him too volatile for cash games. If going for a full Mariners stack, don’t shy away from using Robinson Cano (.171 ISO) and Kyle Seager (.191 ISO), as they both can handle LHP, and stand a great chance to see quite a bit of the Angels bullpen.
Other tagged players: Mike Zunino, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Brett Oberholtzer