DFS Alerts
Angels RHB should fly under the radar in plus matchup
It’s not unusual that we would want to target right-handed batters against a young left-handed pitcher like Ariel Miranda. That is especially true in the case of the Angels, where the heart of their order is the only part worth mentioning for daily fantasy purposes, which leads us to like Mike Trout (163 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .349 ISO vs LHP since 2015), Albert Pujols (138 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP), and C.J. Cron (.176 ISO vs LHP) in this spot. Miranda has a 4.85 SIERA, a 5.18 xFIP, and has surrendered hard contact 40.8% of the time in his brief major league career. The only issue is that he has actually been better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters, though he has still allowed a hard hit rate of 39.7% to RHB. However, the sample size is still too small for us to put too much stock into potential reverse splits, so the usual suspects mentioned previously are certainly strong options for the Angels tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron, Ariel Miranda
Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated with no significant concerns
With Colorado the only spot with any rain real rain issues, and still lower concern levels than normal for that park (YELLOW/GREEN), Kevin updates on some wind conditions. It’s blowing in from right in Baltimore and Cleveland. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Padres implied run total has fallen to 2.9 runs
The Padres rank third in strikeouts against left-handed pitching and actually have the highest overall strikeout rate of any team over the past month at 26.2%. Julio Urias is a strikeout pitcher with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 10.7% swinging strike rate. There honestly is not much concern in the matchup, and we should fully expect Urias to be effective with potential upside against this lineup. The primary question here is his innings cap. Though, Urias has gone six innings and eclipsed 90 pitches in his last two starts, the Dodgers have continued to emphasize that they intend to limit his innings this season. If Urias is permitted to take on that same type of workload again, then we should fully expect him to produce a similar output to his previous two starts. However, his price tag increase could be a problem in tournaments with the innings limit looming.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Price has a 12.1% SwStr% on the season, eclipsing his career high
It has been a frustrating season for David Price (and daily fantasy players), as he has fallen victim to a .318 opposing BABIP and a 13.0% HR/FB rate. In comparison, his career numbers are .290 and 9.4%, respectively. This has been the primary reason why the SIERA and xFIP of Price continue to look much better than his 3.97 ERA, though he continues to close the gap with some solid performances. His walk (5.4%) and strikeout rates (24.3%) are both slightly better than his career averages. The only metric that jumps out is an alarming 35.6% hard hit rate. Though, this is a good matchup against an Oakland team that has begun the transition towards the future and now ranks just 25th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. The price tag has increased for Price, but there is a case to be made that he could end up as the top pitcher on this slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Ray has increased his K-BB% to 19.8% with recent performances
Robbie Ray (3.47 SIERA) is finally figuring things out at the major league level. His 28.3% strikeout rate is the second highest on the slate, and he has been more successful at limiting walks. Yet, he has received a massive price discount, especially on DraftKings, because he is pitching at Coors Field. There is obvious risk here, but Ray profiles as a pitcher that can do well at Coors Field. He throws his fastball or slider 89% of the time, and the thin air has the least effect on those two pitches. If wanting a high risk, high reward option in tournaments, the chances of Ray pitching a good game increases against a Rockies offense that struggles more against left-handed pitching. Since this is Coors, a case can be made for Rockies righties like Nolan Arenado (116 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .256 ISO vs LHP) if preferring to take that route.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado A.J. Griffin did not allow a HR for the first time in 12 starts last time out
A.J. Griffin just broke a streak of 11 straight starts with a HR (17 of his overall 19 allowed this season), most of them (seven) on the road. He has competed six innings in just two of his last 13 starts. A 79.5 LOB% has kept his 4.39 ERA from being even higher and he faces a dangerous offense with quite a bit of power at home tonight. A lot of that power is RH though and Griffin has allowed 13 HRs with a .387 wOBA to LHBs, while he’s been reasonable against RHBs (.291 wOBA, six HRs). That doesn’t completely remove guys like Correa (133 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP career) and Altuve (159 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season) from consideration, but ups the value of guys like Rasmus (99 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $3.6K or less on either site and Jason Castro (103 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Colby Rasmus, A.J. Griffin, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well, but still has a weakness against LHBs (.346 wOBA since last year)
Anthony DeSclafani has a 2.96 ERA assisted by a 79.8 LOB% that has him nearly a run below his estimators. He’s not a bad pitcher at all (16.9 K-BB%), but perhaps a bit over-priced ($10.1K on DraftKings) in a matchup where he hosts the Cardinals (107 wRC+ on the road, 109 wRC+ vs RHP). LHBs have hit him pretty well though (.346 wOBA, 32.7 Hard% since 2015 and nine of his 10 HRs this season), so Matt Carpenter (154 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Brandon Moss (144 wRC+, .351 ISO vs RHP this season) are still strong bats at a reasonable cost tonight.
Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Anthony DeSclafani Major reverse line movement favor the Diamondbacks and their RHB
The Diamondbacks offense matches up extremely well with Jorge De La Rosa, but they are priced accordingly and we will especially have to pay for them on DraftKings. For example, Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt (176 wRC+, .444 wOBA, .248 ISO vs LHP), Welington Castillo (153 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP), and Yasmany Tomas (157 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) all have price tags of $4.9K or higher. The most obvious play of the group is A.J. Pollock (131 wRC, .369 wOBA, .177 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who is locked in to the two spot in the order and is still priced significantly cheaper than the other top Arizona bats. Pollock should be one of the highest owned offensive player on the entire slate (as indicated by our Projected Ownership page), but it honestly won’t be high enough to be fade worthy with the full slate. Jorge de la Rosa has a 9.9% walk rate, 31.4% hard hit rate, and a 4.81 SIERA, so don’t expect him to fare well at Coors Field tonight or any night he is facing a right-heavy lineup like the Diamondbacks.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo, Jean Segura, Jorge De La Rosa Carlos Rodon has been consistent, but his ceiling isn't much higher than his floor for more than $8K
Carlos Rodon has pitched at least 5.2 innings in 19 of his 22 starts. He’s struck out between six and eight in 14 of those starts, but never more than eight and fewer than six in three of his last four. He’s been a perfectly consistent, slightly above average pitcher in a neutral spot tonight and is priced as such between $8K and $9K. There’s a decent floor there, but a ceiling not much higher. The Twins have a team 102 wRC+ vs LHP, but haven’t been as potent recently and also strike out a 23.4% clip against them. Brian Dozier still has a 168 wRC+ and .360 ISO vs LHP, but has failed in his last few starts against them. Miguel Sano (119 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP this season) is ice cold (-9 wRC+, 17.7 Hard% last seven days), but costs just $3.2K on DraftKings. Jorge Polanco (119 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP this season) is an interesting play for just $3.1K on either site against a pitcher RHBs have a .347 wOBA against since last season.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Carlos Rodon, Jorge Polanco Danny Duffy has struck out a total of 11 batters over his last three starts
Danny Duffy’s cost has dropped below $10K on either site with good reason. He has struck out more than six in just one of his last eight starts, including just 11 total over his last three. With a declining innings total in each of his last three starts, this may be a tiring pitcher, about to set a new career high for innings either tonight or next time out. With an abundance of strong arms on the mound tonight and his fourth appointment against a predominantly RH Detroit lineup in less than three months, this appears to be a good spot to fade Duffy. For the Tigers, J.D. Martinez (146 wRC+, .268 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has a 206 wRC+ over the last week, but eight Ks in 19 PAs against Duffy (though a 97.4 mph aEV on six batted balls). Miguel Cabrera (152 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs less than $4K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Danny Duffy Alex Cobb makes his first start in nearly two years at home against the Blue Jays
Alex Cobb has not thrown a major league pitch in nearly two years and has struggled greatly in eight minor league rehab starts, striking out just 15 of 103 batters with eight walks. He returns in a tough spot against the Blue Jays and while we want no part of him yet, this may not be all that interesting a spot for the Blue Jays either with a park downgrade and then a likely early appointment with the Tampa Bay bullpen, though today’s Relief Brief reminds us that they’ve allowed the third highest HR/9 in the majors. The top four are all strong bats against RHP with significant power and may have reasonable value on DraftKings at less than $4.5K (Michael Saunders has a 371 wRC+ over the last week), except for Josh Donaldson (153 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is always a top Third Base bat with a 350 wRC+ over the last month, but a $5.6K price on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Michael Saunders, Alex Cobb Yankees are somewhat surprisingly implied to score 4.2 runs
Dylan Bundy provides a bit more upside than most of the other inexpensive pitchers on the board tonight, as he has a 22.0% strikeout rate accompanied by respectable swing-and-miss stuff. His 10.7% swinging strike rate is pretty solid for an inexperienced starting pitcher. Bundy does a good job at limiting hard contact (28.5%), and his 4.12 SIERA is right around league average. The new-look Yankees offense can certainly be contained at times, especially once Gary Sanchez (270 wRC+, .570 wOBA, ,481 ISO vs RHP) starts to cool off. Bundy allowed five runs in just four innings against the Yankees in his last start, but that was mostly tough luck (.500 BABIP). He still struck out six batters in those four innings, and he should be better this time out.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez Chris Carter OUT in tough park for RH power against Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon got spanked in Milwaukee, lasting just three innings, the first time in nine starts that he failed to go at least six innings. He still has a strong 16.6 K-BB% on the season with a 53.7 GB% that would be seventh best in baseball with enough innings. He transitions back home, to a much more favorable park, especially against RH power, to face the same offense, who drop to a 12.9 HR/FB on the road with a strikeout rate above 25% both away from home and vs RHP. This is a nice bounce back spot and perhaps Taillon will be more lightly owned due to their last encounter (check our Projected Ownership page when it updates). He’s a nice play on either site, but a bit more interesting on FanDuel for $1K less. Chris Carter is for the Brewers tonight, as it makes some sense to rest him against a tough pitcher in a tough park on RH power. Hernan Perez (95 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP this season) wins small sample BvP today with three HRs in seven PAs against Taillon, but is an average hitter at best against RHP and loses any value he has in transition to a much tougher park. Projected for just $3.5 runs, there are no Milwaukee batters of interest.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Hernan Perez Doug Fister has a 5.44 xFIP versus LHB and allows 1.57 HR/9
Doug Fister does possess legitimate skills to induce ground balls (55.8%) and soft contact (-5.3% Hard-Soft%) to right-handed batters, but against left-handed batters, he is extremely vulnerable. Fister has a 14.1% strikeout rate with basically no ability to control batted balls (36.6% Hard%). Most of the top Rangers bats are right-handed, but Nomar Mazara (113 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Beltran (.208 ISO vs RHP), Rougned Odor (.240 ISO vs RHP) and Mitch Moreland (.223 ISO vs RHP) are strong tournament options tonight given how much Fister struggles with lefties.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor, Mitch Moreland, Doug Fister Jeremy Hellickson (15.0 K-BB%, 3.80 ERA) costs just $4.5K on DraftKings against the Braves
Jeremy Hellickson brings a perfectly serviceable 15.0 K-BB% with a 3.80 ERA and estimators right around four into this matchup with the Braves. While it’s true the Braves have improved offensively, they are now only the fourth worst offense on the road (83 wRC+) and vs RHP (85 wRC+) with a 113 wRC+ over the last week, but that’s still no reason for Hellickson to cost just $4.5K on DraftKings, where he’s one of several great, low priced values. Players will have to check back when our Projected Ownership page updates to see how popular he’s expected to be in this severely under-priced spot. He’s $2.8K more expensive on FanDuel. Hellickson has occasionally been HR prone (23 HRs) as a fly ball pitcher (1.09 GB/FB) in a small park, so Freddie Freeman (150 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is still a bat players want to look at. He’s quite expensive on DraftKings ($5.5K), but has a 196 wRC+ over the last week. The Braves have no other batter with an ISO above .180 vs RHP since last year, further enhancing Hellickson’s value.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman