DFS Alerts

Bryce Harper may be a low-owned, elite play for the afternoon slate if other DFS players avoid the unknown

The Nationals lineup will not be available in time for early lock contests, but it may be a low-owned strategy to use the usual power bats for the Nationals. It will be a Sunday night game, so there is a reduced possibility that the Nats elect to rest many of their regulars. The risk would be worth it because of the Mets starter, Seth Lugo, who is giving up a ridiculous amount of hard contact over the last couple of weeks, allowing hard contact in 50% of at-bats that end in contact. Of these same at-bats, 38% are of the fly ball variety, making the Nats bats on both sides of the plate attractive options today. It should be noted that Dusty Baker is not a manager known for his conventional managerial style, but Bryce Harper looks to be an elite bat that may go under-owned. Harper has a 125 wRC+ over the last week, and much like Franklin Gutierrez yesterday, when Bryce is striking out less than 10% of the time, he should be in your lineup. We will provide an update if Harper is not in the lineup tonight.

Trout's peripherals point towards a big game today

In an earlier post about Chase Anderson, the 40/40/20 rule was referenced, meaning when a pitcher has a flyball % > 40, a hard contact % > 40, and a strike out % <20. Over the last two weeks, Hisashi Iwakuma nearly meets this rule for offensive production, considering he has a FB% OF 41, a hard contact % of 38, and a meager 11% k rate. Iwakuma on the season has allowed similar statistics to both LHBs and RHBs, making all of the Angels hitters today viable options for DFS purposes. If today is a day to create rules based on sabermetric data, another rule should be that Mike Trout should be in every DFS lineup on days that his strikeout % over the last seven days is less than 10%. Trout’s has whiffed in 9% of at-bats over the last week and a big day for Trout is probable.

For contrarians only: Fade Rockies!

Over the last couple of weeks, Archie Bradley has a respectable 3.32 SIERA, an elite 63% groundball rate, and a decent K-rate of 21%. Bradley has been much more susceptible to left-handed bats, so he will have to avoid making any mistakes to David Dahl and Carlos Gonzales. If he is able to mitigate the damage done by these two lefties, he should be able to lean on his stuff to hold down RHBs (Bradley has a 3.56 xFIP on the season vs. RHBs). It is worth noting that Car-Go has hit the ball hard in 71% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last week, leading us to believe that a home run off Bradley may be inevitable if Bradley cannot successfully pitch around the Rockies slugger. It is worth reiterating, the Rockies fade is more of a game theory strategy, founded on the hopes that Bradley’s success against RHBs will help him quell any Colorado rallies. The fact that Charlie Blackmon is not in the lineup should also boost the probability that Bradley will be able to limit the production by the Rockies.

Three reasons to stack…A’s?

Reason # 1: Over the last two weeks, Eduardo Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 4%. Yes, you read that correctly, 4%.
Reason # 2: Rodriguez has not had good command and holds a 0.25 K/BB ratio over that same two week time period, leading to a laughable SIERA of 7.66.
Reason # 3: If E-Rod does not get back on track in a hurry, the Athletics have a slew of right-handed, lefty-smashing specialist, including Danny Valencia, Jake Smolinksi, Marcus Semien, and Khris Davis who hold wRC+ totals vs. LHP of 171, 158, 136, and 133, respectively.
The Athletics may have taken a peek at some sabermetrics when constructing the lineup today, considering that the first four batters in the lineup are in order, Marcus Semien, Jake Smolinski, Danny Valencia, and Khris Davis at cleanup.

"Second" lead-off man Byron Buxton and Brian Dozier make a dynamic two man stack

Over the last two weeks, Anthony Ranaudo has given up hard contact (36% of the time), fly balls (42% of the time), and allowed production to both sides of the plate (6.64 xFIP to LHBs vs. 6.86 xFIP to RHBs). Ranaudo will not be striking his way out of any jams either since he whiffed less than 13% of batters faced over that same period. Over the last week, Byron Buxton and Brian Dozier stand out as Twins who are feeling good at the plate, both holding wRC+ totals over 200. Buxton, in particular, has a silly good 443 wRC+ and has not struck out in 10 plate appearances.

Brandon Phillips scratched

Iribarren will take his place.

Kevin Roth reports relatively calm weather today

Kevin Roth’s weather report is full of good weather today and does mention that the game in Baltimore will experience gusts of wind blowing in up to 20 mph. Check out his full report for additional wind details.

3 Reasons to stack…Braves?

Reason # 1: Over the last month, Jake Thompson is striking out only 13% of the hitters he faces, with both LHBs and RHBs whiffing at about the same rate.
Reason# 2: Over that same period of time, Thompson’s batted profile is not making him any worse of a pitcher to target with batters. When balls are put in play, he is giving up hard contact 39% of the time, and they are fly balls 38% of the time.
Reason # 3: We have a pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a poor batted ball profile, meaning we only need quality hitters to have a recipe for offensive production. Over the last week, the Braves have two hitters with wRC+ totals over 200, including Adonis Garcia and Freddie Freeman. Adonis is feeling it right now, only whiffing 10% of the time over the past seven days.

Erick Aybar scratched, Andrew Romine to start

Romine will start at third

Chase Anderson's reverse splits make Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen solid OF plays today

Chase Anderson is known by most as being a reverse splits pitcher, and this year has been no different than the past. Anderson has an xFIP of 4.89 and a K % of 18% to RHBs. If we wanted to make a 40/40/20 rule, when a pitcher has a flyball percentage over 40, a hard contact allowed percentage over 40, and a strikeout percentage under 20, Anderson may be the poster boy. Over the last week, Starling Marte is blistering the baseball, holding a wRC+ of 235 and only going down on strikes 11% of the time. Andrew McCutchen is also worth a look, considering he is also only going down on strikes 11% of the time over the last week.

Evan Longoria and Brad Miller look to take advantage of a slumping J.A. Happ

Each DFS player may have a different philosophy on indicators of future performance, but if recent pitching performance is one of them, then J.A. Happ may not bring his A-game today. Over his last couple of outings, A.J. is striking out less than 19% of batters, while giving up a generous 39% hard contact percentage, and not giving up markedly different production to either side of the plate (4.22 xFIP to LHB vs. 3.95 xFIP to RHB). The Rays stack should not be one of the more popular plays today and Brad Miller and Evan Longoria both have hard contact percentages over 35% during the last seven days. As often happens when analyzing baseball, it is worth noting that these same two batters have K percentages over 25%, a reminder that Happ may not be such a terrible GPP option himself.

Gyorko looks to commit righty-on-righty crime from the 2-hole today

Over the last month, Tim Adleman is striking out 12% of batters, while giving up hard contact on 33% of balls that are put into play. Of these, 50% have been flyballs, leading one to believe that Adleman’s 2.81 HR/9 is not an aberration. Anytime a pitcher has shown an inability to get batters out of the same handedness, there is a slight DFS edge to be had, and Adleman holds a putrid 10% strikeout percentage versus RHBs. Cardinals RHBs are practical options today, starting with Jedd Gyorko, a RHB who possesses an impressive 131 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Look to target a low-owned RHB with a 0.340 ISO versus RHP today in Jedd Gyorko.

Chralie Blackmon scratched

Charlie Blackmon scratched tapia will start in his place.

Las Vegas projects Rich Hill to give up 2.65 runs to the Padres

Over the last couple of weeks, Rich Hill has a strikeout rate of 13%, a flyball percentage of 40%, and an xFIP of 4.39. While only a limited number of innings, the line may be more of a reflection of how inept the San Diego Padres have been this year than the recent form of Rich Hill. Over the last week, four Padres batters are striking out more than 25% of the time, led by Derek Norris who is sporting an unbelievable 61% strikeout rate over that period. Hill will still need to avoid making a mistake to batters like Will Myers and Yangervis Solarte, who both have hard contact percentages of 50% or greater over the last seven days. Still, the strikeout upside that the Padres offer makes Rich Hill a more than attractive option at SP tonight.

3 Reasons to stack Mariners tonight

Reason #1: Hard contact generally leads to trouble, and Tyler Skaggs is giving up an enormous 50% hard hit rate on balls put into play.
Reason #2: Two of the Mariners first four batters, Franklin Gutierrez and Nelson Cruz, have wRC+ totals versus LHP over 140
Reason #3: A handful of the Mariners batters are seeing the ball well in recent games, considering that the two through five hitters are all striking out less than 24% of the time over the last week.

When Franklin Gutierrez is striking out less than 18% of the time over the last week and is facing a left-handed pitcher, play Franklin Gutierrez!