DFS Alerts
Will Myers Scratched
Analysis coming soon.
Ivan Nova looks to continue his hot streak against a below average Brewers team
Ivan Nova has had a slight resurgence since being traded to the National League and has had an impressive last couple of weeks. His 2.64 SIERA over the last two weeks is good for 8th best in the majors. Over the last 14 days, Nova has kept his hard contact below 29%, while whiffing a respectable 22% of batters. He has not been dominate against RHBs by any means but has fared better against RHBs than LHBs, striking out RHBs at a rate of 21% this year. The Brewers do not have a left-handed bat with a wRC+ over 100 this year, so Nova will look to take advantage of a plus matchup today in Milwaukee.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Kevin Roth's weather report is out, and he mentions that the games in Detroit and Texas may see pop-up showers
Kevin Roth discusses a couple of cities with pop-up showers, giving YELLOW ratings to the games in Detroit and Texas. Roth firmly believes that both games will play, but does acknowledge that there is a slight possibility of delay in Texas, depending on where the storms occur.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather 3 Reasons to stack Washington Nationals today
Reason # 1: Chad Bettis is in a bad way right now, holding a 6.83 xFIP over the last two weeks. His 10% strikeout rate over that period means that Bettis has been allowing plenty of contact, and considerably harder contact to RHBs (Bettis has allowed a 34% hard contact percentage to RHBs on the year).
Reason # 2: Three of the Nationals hitters are seeing the ball extremely well over the last 7 days, with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman possessing hard contact percentages of 43%, 41%, and 35%, respectively.
Reason #3: The game will be played in Washington, and Bettis surprisingly has performed better at home this year, holding an xFIP of 3.74 at home, compared to 4.52 on the road.
Playing a Nationals stack today is a sound strategy, even after a disappointing showing yesterday.
Three things to know about Mets pitcher Robert Gsellman (and using Phillies hitters)
Fact # 1: He is a right-handed pitcher, who pitched in AA and AAA in 2016. During that stint, he posted a 6.9 K/9, so it appears that he is not much of a strikeout pitcher. With Gsellman on the mound today for New York, a batter like Tommy Joseph, who presents a certain degree of strikeout risk, becomes a more viable play at 1B.
Fact # 2: In the minors, Gsellman did not display drastic platoon splits, allowing an OPS of 0.686 to LHBs, compared to 0.718 to RHBs. If we can glean anything from these numbers, it is perhaps that Phillies RHBs are not necessarily off limits.
Fact # 3: Gsellman has thrown as many as 108 pitches in his last handful of outings, pointing to the possibility that he could pitch deep into the game today if he has early success against an average Phillies lineup. While Gsellman looks to have a very low ceiling today, he does have a bottom of the barrel price on most sites.
Max Kepler looks to get back on track today against R.A. Dickey
Since the beginning of 2015, Max Kepler has one of the best wKN/C in the league amongst batters with at least 10 ABs against the knuckleball. Kepler’s wKN/C of 8.30 makes him extra interesting against R.A. Dickey today, a pitcher who has a 4.96 xFIP at home this year. It should be noted that Kepler has been scuffling in recent games, posting a wRC+ of 79 over the last week. Still, DFS players could rely on his past performance versus the knuckleball and hope that a couple of ABs versus Dickey is just what Kepler needs to get back on track.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: R.A. Dickey The Orioles have had less success against southpaws this year than would be expected, making CC Sabathia an interesting play today
For anyone who puts stock into SIERA in recent performances, CC Sabathia may be interesting today. Over the last few weeks, Sabathia has the 2nd best SIERA in the league, sitting at a cool 2.13. Over that period, Sabathia has a massive 36% strikeout rate, a respectable 28% flyball rate, and an impressive 22% hard contact rate. That is the good news. The bad news is that Sabathia strikes out RHBs 19% of the time, compared to 23% of the time versus LHBs, and the Orioles are loaded with capable RHBs. Still, after looking deeper, of the usual starters, only Manny Machado (wRC+ 130 vs. LHP) and Chris Davis (wRC+ 107 vs. LHP have a wRC+ over 100 versus LHP this year.
As reported by: FanGraphs Brandon Belt scratched, Conor Gillaspie will play 1b and bat 5th
Analysis coming soon.
Kevin Roth gives the Angels-Tigers game the green light
Kevin Roth has provided us with a weather update, emphasizing that the Angels-Tigers game is good to go.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Brandon Moss looks to take advantage of Neal's inability to strike out LHBs
Zachary Neal has a minuscule 6% strikeout percentage over the last couple of weeks, indicating that he may not have what it takes to strike out major league batters. In only 38 innings, it appears that Neal is more susceptible to LHBs, holding a pitiful 3% K rate against LHBs. Brandon Moss has a solid 157 wRC+ against RHP, but strikes out 30% of the time. Moss’s 30% strikeout rate should be mitigated by Neal’s inability to put LHB away, helping DFS players to enjoy Moss’s 0.375 ISO without his usual strikeout risk. Look to take advantage of this rare opportunity to play Brandon Moss on a night where he should put the ball in play in all three or four plate appearances.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Zach Neal White Sox right-handed bats look to tee off of Miranda
Ariel Miranda has logged only 19 innings in the majors this year, so we cannot glean too much from his limited action. Still, it is worth noting that he is striking out LHBs 29% of the time, compared to 18% of the time versus RHBs. If any conclusions can be made from Miranda’s limited time in the majors, Miranda has shown that he will give up contact to RHBs. This puts bats like Jose Abreu squarely in play for the evening slate. Abreu took a long time to get going this year but has posted an impressive 0.455 ISO over the last week. A two-man stack of Abreu and Todd Frazier would be a pragmatic strategy to take advantage of a young pitcher who has shown that he may have trouble striking out RHBs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Ariel Miranda Matt Joyce looks to take advantage of Jimmy Nelson's struggles versus LHB
Most DFS players do not need research to know that Jimmy Nelson cannot get out left-handed batters. Nelson has an xFIP of 5.34 versus LHBs this year, allowing a hefty 37% hard contact on the year. The fact that Nelson has maintained such a large hard contact percentage is a testament to how well LHBs have been able to square up his pitches. With Nelson’s 16% k rate versus lefties, the floor for Pirates lefties like Matt Joyce appears to be elevated today in Milwaukee. Joyce strikes out a decent amount against RHPs, 25% of at-bats, but looks to be in a better situation today versus Jimmy Nelson.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jimmy Nelson James McCann faces a homerun-prone Brett Oberholtzer
In 55 innings of work this year, Brett Oberholtzer has successfully established a HR/9 over 2 against both LHBs and RHBs. Against RHBs, Oberholtzer’s 15% k rate, 42% fly ball percentage, 34% hard contact percentage, and ridiculous 2.02 HR/9 all point towards playing Tigers RHBs. While an all out Tigers stack will be popular, and for a good reason, James McCann is an unheralded Tiger that has been seeing that ball well in recent games. McCann is striking out an incredible 5% of the time in the last week while posting an impressive 0.500 ISO.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jake Peavy going to the DL, Albert Suarez will start tonight
Analysis coming soon.
Dodgers lefties look to take advantage of Hammel's hard contact allowed
Jason Hammel has been a productive pitcher this season but has hit a little bit of a rough patch over the last two weeks. Over that period, his strikeout rate is below 20% and his batted ball profile is not looking good, giving up 45% hard contact and 35% fly balls. Hammel has been fairly susceptible to left-handed bats this year, possessing a 4.93xFIP against LHBs. The Dodgers have plenty of LHBs worthy of punishing right-handed pitching, beginning with Corey Seager and his 156 wRC+. Additionally, Joc Pederson, Adrian Gonzalez, and Yasmani Grandal have wRC+ totals against RHP of 139, 136, and 123, respectively. The Dodgers stack is not the most creative stack today but has merit nonetheless.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal