DFS Alerts
Kevin Roth's weather report is out and it is a beautiful day for baseball
Today brings DFS players a beautiful day of weather. Kevin Roth’s report has no rating worse than YELLOW, making today a perfect day for MLB DFS.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather
Marcus Stroman faces the right-handed heavy Twins today
Marcus Stroman has been fantastic in recent starts and faces a Twins club that has been awful over the last week, sporting a team wRC+ of 61. Over the last two weeks, Stroman has a 31% strikeout rate, much higher than his 20% strikeout rate for the season. On the other hand, the Twins have been less bad against RHP than their reputation, posting a team wRC+ of 95 and a k% of 22%. Supporting the thought that Stroman is the best play on the early slate is the Twins lefties numbers over the last week, considering Eduardo Escobar and Robbie Grossman are the only Twins with wRC+ totals over 100 in the last 7 days. Escobar’s ISO of 0.063 should not scare anyone and Robbie Grossman’s power comes from the right side of the plate, posting only a 0.145 ISO versus RHP this year. Stroman may be popular today due to the Twins reputation against RHP, but for good reason, considering the Twins lack of quality left-handed bats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Chad Green is a legitimate boom or bust option at pitcher today
Chad Green has a 36% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, holding a 2.41 xFIP over the last that same period. Green faces an Orioles team today that has been much like the Houston Astros of old, seemingly equally capable of striking out 10 times as they are of hitting 5 home runs. Over the last week, the Orioles have a team wRC+ of 85, and k% of 22%, making Chad Green a viable high risk, high reward pitcher today. The game is taking place in New York, but the Orioles have a dearth of left-handed swingers, with only Pedro Alvarez and Chris Davis acting as legitimate power threats from the left side of the plate. Chad Green has all the characteristics of a boom or bust pitcher today, holding hitters to a hard contact rate of 29% over the last two weeks, but surrendering a fly ball percentage of 44%. While the fly balls could very well get Green into trouble today, but his 2.50 xFIP at home is encouraging. Chad Green is a cheap option at pitcher that will allow DFS players to load up on offense.
As reported by: FanGraphs Tucker Barnhardt scratched from the Reds lineup Friday
Barnhart has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds’ lineup for an unspecified reason. Ramon Cabrera will replace him and bat eighth.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans Verified Twitter Account Other tagged players: Ramon Cabrera
After being nearly no hit last night, Dodgers have just a 78 wRC+ vs LHP
Mike Montgomery struck out five of 15 Rockies in Colorado in his first start for the Cubs. He threw just 60 pitches though, which is a concern for tonight, but the Dodgers have great difficulty against LHP, as we saw last night, and now have just a 78 wRC+ (third worst) against them with just a 10.6 HR/FB. The Red Sox didn’t win a World Series for nearly 90 years after trading Babe Ruth and the Dodgers could be in a similar situation here. The curse of A.J. Ellis is real. Though Carlos Ruiz shows up tonight, he bats sixth and is not even available on DraftKings tonight. He and Seager (120 wRC+, .199 ISO) are the only above average bats in this lineup vs LHP. Nobody else has a wRC+ above 90 and only Justin Turner also has an ISO above .130. Even expected to go just five innings, Mike Montgomery could make some sense in a good spot in your second DraftKings spot for just $5.3K.
Other tagged players: Carlos Ruiz, Corey Seager, Justin Turner
Joel De La Cruz is surrendering a 35.6% Hard% to LHB
There aren’t many times where we are intrigued by the Giants offense on a full slate, but they definitely deserve at least a mention tonight. Joel De La Cruz has struggled to a tune of a 5.31 SIERA over 14 appearances (seven starts) for the Braves, walking over three batters per nine innings in the process. He also has a minuscule 12.4% strikeout rate. These factors don’t bode well against a Giants team that has the second lowest strikeout rate and the second highest walk rate against right-handed pitching in the majors. They match up very well against De La Cruz, though their prices are all over the map on some sites. We should avoid the over-priced Denard Span and Angel Pagan in anything but a tournament stack and instead target the great value in Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford (.185 ISO vs RHP), and Brandon Belt (132 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Joel De La Cruz Samardzija has pitched better last two starts, gets Braves (82 wRC+ vs RHP) at home
Jeff Samardzija is having his second consecutive down year, but has a few things in his favor though today. He’s pitched a bit better of late, striking out 12 of his last 49 with just two walks and five runs over 13 innings, both starts at home against mediocre offenses. Tonight, he’s at home again against an even worse offense (83 wRC+ on the road, 82 wRC+ vs RHP). They don’t strike out a lot, but already hit for very little power (9.1 HR/FB vs RHP), which this park should suppress even more. Samardzija is a reasonable play between $8K and $9K tonight in a great spot for run prevention and innings, though not strikeouts tonight. There’s little interest in Atlanta bats in a difficult run environment tonight with a lineup projected for 3.3 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds He's baaack! Pollock will make his season debut, as the Diamondbacks are in a ideal matchup
The Reds and Diamondbacks are set to meet in a contest that checks-in with one of the heftier run totals on the board. This is a tough task for Brandon Finnegan, pitching on the road in a great hitters’ park against a Diamondbacks lineups that quietly now leads the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Finnegan is also quite awful from a pitching perspective, accumulating a meager 17.5% strikeout rate, a 11.6% walk rate, a 37.6% hard hit rate, and a 5.21 SIERA this season. Finnegan has allowed a hard hit rate of 40.6% against right handed hitters this year. Just let that sink in. We can stack up the Diamondbacks with confidence tonight, and there is a case to be made for nearly every hitter in that lineup. A.J. Pollock (137 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .185 ISO vs LHP since 2015), Paul Goldschmidt (186 wRC+, .459 wOBA, .263 ISO vs LHP), Wellington Castillo (155 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .308 ISO vs LHP), and Rickie Weeks Jr. (156 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .322 ISO vs LHP) are the core options here hitting in the heart of the Arizona order.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Rickie Weeks, Welington Castillo, Brandon Finnegan Joey Votto arrives in Arizona with a 230 wRC+ over the last week facing a pitcher with a lot of hard contact allowed
Batters from either side have a .360+ wOBA and 40+ Hard% against Braden Shipley (14.8 K%) so far. There will be plenty of opportunities for hard contact tonight. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP) is an obvious top First Base choice on FanDuel ($3.6K), but is nearly $2K more expensive on DraftKings. He arrives in Arizona with a 230 wRC+ over the last week. Adam Duvall (114 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the other strong bat against RHP with a viable $3.1K price tag on FanDuel. While a few other Cincinnati bats appear playable at a reasonable cost, none really stand out.
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Braden Shipley Kevin Pillar scratched Friday
Ezequiel Carrera will now enter the lineup and bat 9th, while Darwin Barney will move from 9th to 7th in the lineup. It’s good news for Pat Dean, but the Jays still have plenty of power from the right side waiting to take advantage of his HR issues against RH bats.
As reported by: Mike Wilner Other tagged players: Ezequiel Carrera
LHBs have a .386 wOBA and 38.6 Hard% against Vogelsong since last season
Though LHBs have hit Ryan Vogelsong much better than RHBs since last season (.386 wOBA, 38.6 Hard% vs .287 wOBA, 28.3 Hard%), Chris Carter (100 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be a bat worth taking a chance on with a 250 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% at home tonight. A cheaper player that may be worth looking at is Kirk Nieuwenhuis (97 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2015). This is a league average bat with some power costing $3.6K or less on either site. Jonathan Villar (107 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is much more expensive, but should be able to run against Cervelli if he gets on.
Other tagged players: Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar, Ryan Vogelsong Bell gets the bump to the two-hole, as the Pirates check-in with a nice 5.0 implied run total
Left-handed batters are the ideal way to attack Matt Garza, unfortunately that is something that this Pirates almost lacks almost entirely, as Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco (122 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .218 ISO vs RHP) are the only lefties to crack the Pittsburgh lineup tonight. Garza has struggled getting strikeouts this season especially (12.3% K%), but his strength has been keeping the ball on the ground (53.9%). Outside the Pirates lefties as one offs, this is a clear stack or fade situation in tournaments since Garza hasn’t been beaten by the long ball very often, even in starts where he is blown up. However, the Pirates have hitters with good reverse splits, and may go under owned in a righty-righty matchup. Not to the extent of lefty-lefty, obviously, but still we see the masses really searching for platoon advantage batters. The batters who really stand out are Starling Marte (120 wRC+, .349 wOBA) and Andrew McCutchen (163 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Garza Kevin's evening forecast is nearly clean
Kevin mentions a few games in his late update, but only one that seems to have much potential for a delay and even that seems like a long shot in Oakland St Louis. All pitchers look clear tonight. Read Kevin's full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for possible late developments.
Mike Fiers has a 26.6 K% over the last month and faces the Rays (23.8 K% vs RHP) at home
Mike Fiers has a 26.6 K% over the last month and has been running through some very tough offenses (BAL, TOR 2x, DET) with only one start at home (TOR), which helps justify the six HRs over his last three starts a little bit. Tonight, he’s in a neutral spot (Rays 101 wRC+ on the road, 100 wRC+ vs RHP), facing an offense with some power (14.5 HR/FB vs RHP), but also one that has a 23.8 K% vs RHP. He’s flashed similar upside occasionally in the past, but is always an arm that comes with a lot of variance in the performance. On a weak board, he might be worth a shot for $8K on either site in a high strikeout spot. The Rays realize this is a reverse platoon arm (RHBs .341 wOBA, LHBs .298 wOBA since last year) and stuck an extra tolken RHB in there tonight, though Mahtook has been terrible vs RHP. Fiers has allowed hard contact more than one-third of the time to batters from either side. Evan Longoria (145 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP this season) and Logan Forsythe (113 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP this season) are both reasonably priced bats worth considering.
Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Mikie Mahtook, Logan Forsythe Mariners shuffle lineup facing Chris Sale (25.3 GB% last four starts).
The Mariners have gone a bit unorthodox or at least a different look against Chris Sale tonight, but it doesn’t really make any of their bats look all that much better. He has pitched at least 6.2 innings with seven strikeouts or more in each of his last four starts, while his SwStr% has increased in each one, but was only above 10% in his last one. While he’s only allowed a single HR over this span, he has an amazingly low 25.3 GB% that is a concern when the opposing team puts the second highest percentage of fly balls over the fence against LHP (17.3 HR/FB). Chris Sale is still one of the top pitchers tonight and should remain on players’ radars, but perhaps not atop it with the highest price tag tonight. Nelson Cruz (184 wRC+, .325 ISO vs LHP since 2015) remains in play tonight due to enormous fly ball rate from Sale. For players thinking about Mike Zunino as a punt Catcher bumped to the fifth spot for $3K, he has just a career 73 wRC+ and .117 ISO vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino