DFS Alerts
Sean Manaea has allowed 16 HRs to RHBs in 19 starts, only seven away from Oakland
Sean Manaea’s 13.1 SwStr% over the last month is top five in baseball and suggests improvement may be in store for his league average 20.4 K% this season. Stephen Vogt is doing him no favors as the second worst pitch framer in baseball (-15.7 RAA) according to Stat Corner though and he’s behind the plate tonight. Players could consider the potential upside in Manaea’s arm for less than $7K because the Astros have a 22.9 K% vs LHP, but their strengths also accentuate his weakness against RH power. He’s allowed 19 HRs in 19 starts (35 Hard%), 12 of which have been in Oakland. Sixteen of those HRs have gone to RHBs and the Astros have a team 15.5 HR/FB vs LHP. Springer (172 wRC+, .298 ISO) and Altuve (182 wRC+, .225 ISO) are the top bats vs LHP this season, but rookie Alex Berman (137 wRC+, .257 ISO) has performed strongly as well and Evan Gattis (137 wRC+, .282 ISO) might be the top Catcher on the board in this spot. He already has a homer off Manaea (six PAs) with a 101 mph aEV on four batted balls. Yulieski Gurriel has a 160 wRC+ in 16 PAs since his call-up and costs just $2.4K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Stat Corner Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman
The 13.9% SwStr% of Pineda is just one of his elite advanced metrics
Michael Pineda has been the epitome of a pitcher that has had great metrics with bad results all season long, and we still continue to wait for everything to correct itself in the long run. We have yet to see a major correction in his .338 BABIP or 16.8% HR/FB rate, and that’s a big reason why his ERA remains at 5.02 despite a sparkling 3.47 SIERA and a 26.3% strikeout rate. His above average hard contact allowed (32.9%) will always force a higher BABIP, but it’s hard to ignore how pristine his metrics look otherwise. We’ve ridden the Pineda train this long and this definitely isn’t the spot we should hop off. There’s plenty of upside here, especially against what is now a mediocre Kansas City offense.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Carpenter (162 wRC+, .299 ISO) and Moss (151 wRC+, .363 ISO) continue to crush RHP
Zackh Davies has been nearly a league average arm in a tough park (4.06 ERA, 4.20 SIERA, 19.5 K%), but is not in a good spot hosting the Cardinals (109 wRC+ on the road, 111 wRC+ vs RHP) tonight. He doesn’t have much of a split, as batters from either side have been about average against him, so this may not be the top spot for offense tonight, but Matt Carpenter (161 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP this season) and Brandon Moss (151 wRC+, .363 ISO vs RHP this season) have to be mentioned in a favorable power environment against a marginal RHP. Punters could consider Kolten Wong (101 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) for the minimum price at Second Base on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Zach Davies, Kolten Wong Carlos Martinez hasn't had a SwStr above 6.3% in five starts.
Carlos Martinez has the fifth best GB rate (56.1%) in baseball, but that’s essentially what you’re being asked to pay $10K for tonight because his SwStr has crated over the last month to 5.8% and hasn’t been above 6.3% in any of his last five starts. He’s been extremely fortunate to have even an 18.4 K% over that span. The Brewers (25.4 K% at home and vs RHP) may help him keep it there, but you have to wonder if that’s worth $10K in a dangerous park. LHBs have hit him well since last season (.326 wOBA, 32.5 Hard%) and though the Brewers don’t have a lot of potency in that area, there are a couple of bats to consider. Kirk Nieuwenhuis is a low priced OF bat with some power (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP this season) and Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+) could cause some problems atop the lineup, but probably won’t be running much on Molina. Carlos Martinez should still end up with fine results against a predominantly RH lineup, but you have to question that price tag with a severe lack of swings and misses over the last month.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Kirk Nieuwenhuis Cubs implied run total continues to creep towards 5.0 runs, currently at 4.9
Steven Brault had a strikeout to right-handed batters in the minors this year of over 26%, with a solid changeup he is able to use if he gets ahead in the count. Of course, Brault has his work cut out for him today, as Kris Bryant (176 wRC+, .438 wOBA, .329 ISO vs LHP), Ben Zobrist (135 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .164 ISO vs LHP), Dexter Fowler (136 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .185 ISO vs LHP), and Willson Contreras (127 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .186 ISO vs LHP) all do a fantastic job putting the ball in play against left-handed pitching. The Cubs jump out as one of those stack or fade situations with so many other great spots for offense on this slate. With that said, Bryant can always be considered as a one off option, especially against a left-handed pitcher making his third career start. This is why we would prefer a full stack in this spot hoping to take advantage all at once if the stage and/or matchup is too much for Brault to handle.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler, Willson Contreras, Steven Brault Hector Santiago has just a 13.0 K% with a 42.1 Hard% since the trade to Minnesota
Hector Santiago has dropped his walk rate nearly 10 points to 3.3% since being traded to the Twins. The problem is that he’s nearly dropped his strikeout rate 10 points also to 13% with a 42.1 Hard%, which has led to seven HRs in four starts. Cleveland is tied for the best home offense in baseball (122 wRC+), but have been slumping vs LHP due to Davis and Napoli having a negative wRC+ over the last week. Napoli still has a 146 wRC+ and .261 ISO vs LHP since last season and at least a 38.9 Hard% over the last week and needs to be considered against a pitcher who allows so much hard contact with an non-existent strikeout rate over his last four starts. Seventh is the new cleanup for Terry Francona though, as he continues to bat his best bat in that spot. Against LHP, that’s the recently acquired Brandon Guyer, who has a 191 wRC+ and .232 ISO vs LHP this season. The Indians are projected for 5.3 runs tonight, but without very many extremely potent bats against LHP.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Hector Santiago Jake Thompson has walked as many as he's struck out with a 40% hard hit rate through four starts
Jake Thompson brought a 16.8 K% from AAA that hasn’t transitioned well to the majors over four starts so far as his 7.2 BB% has doubled as he’s struck out as many as he’s walked (14% each) with a 40.9% hard contact rate. Batters from both sides have hammered him equally well. The Nationals are one of several offenses projected for more than five runs tonight with several viable options. Aside from Harper (132 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Murphy (166 wRC+, .279 ISO), Turner (157 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Rendon (111 wRC+, .190 ISO) now give them two more formidable bats vs RHP this year. They’re all fairly expensive bats though. Perhaps Clint Robinson (99 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a punt 1B option for $2.3K on FanDuel if necessary.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Clint Robinson, Jake Thompson, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner Marco Estrada has allowed five home runs in his last nine innings pitched
Marco Estrada is a massive fly ball pitcher (46.5%), which keeps his opponents’ batting average down (.227 BABIP). He will always have one of the lowest batting averages allowed in all of baseball. The problem with Estrada is that when the fly ball variance catches up with him, he has dreadful starts where the opposing team can hit multiple home runs. Coincidentally, Baltimore features a plethora of home run hitters. The Orioles haven’t had much history of success against Estrada, but we could definitely see some home runs here. Trying to go home run hunting with individual Orioles bats is more than viable, but the full stack is certainly in play in case Estrada implodes for a third straight game. Mark Trumbo (145 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .296 ISO vs RHP), Manny Machado (143 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .287 ISO vs RHP), and Chris Davis (121 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHP) are the best home run threats in this Orioles lineup putting them at the top of the list of bats to target in this spot. Jonathan Schoop (.199 ISO vs RHP) gets the bump to lead off with Adam Jones out of the lineup and can certainly be considered with the pop he can provide.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Marco Estrada The Blue Jays have a team 154 wRC+ over the last week with more walks than strikeouts
The Blue Jays were inexplicably shut down by Jered Weaver last week, but have been on fire since with a slate leading 154 wRC+, 18.3 HR/FB and -0.5 K-BB%. That’s more walks than strikeouts! They are on the road tonight, but get to face another marginal lefty in Baltimore with a healthy 5.35 run projection. Josh Donaldson (172 wRC+, .295 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has a 297 wRC+ and 40.9 Hard% over the last week and might be tonight’s top overall bat against a pitcher that has allowed a .346 wOBA and 33 HRs to RHBs since last season. Rather than just list the entire lineup, let’s remind players that each of the first six have a wRC+ of 119 or higher with an ISO above .185 vs LHP since last season and all project strongly tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Wade Miley Maybin and Kinsler swap spots facing recent HR machine James Shields
James Shields trumps Coors tonight as the Tigers enter the evening with tonight’s highest run projection (5.9%), facing HR machine James Shields, who has allowed 11 HRs over his last 15 innings, spanning four starts. Nineteen of his 31 HRs this year have been surrendered to RHBs. The obvious is that Miguel Cabrera (156 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top overall bat, while both Martinez boys with a wRC+ above 130 and ISO above .200 vs RHP this season project strongly as well tonight. Players looking for some more affordable exposure need to consider Cameron Maybe (124 wRC+ vs RHP this season) as an essential part of any stack. Though a bump to leadoff is just one spot and he hasn’t hit for any power this year, he has a 208 wRC+ and 42.9 Hard% over the last week and is likely to score at least one run tonight. He’s the only bat in the first six that costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (94 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP this season) is a very reasonable pivot from the popular Babe Sanchez behind the plate.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, James Shields, Jarrod Saltalamacchia Holt replaces Pedroia in the lineup and bats lead off, Red Sox implied run total sits at 5.3 runs
There’s so many viable spots to find offense tonight that the Red Sox hitters may actually go under-owned against Matt Andriese at Fenway Park. That’s not to say it’s the wrong play, but it would seem like the right long-term strategy to stack Boston in a spot similar to this one. Since ownership should be so spread out tonight , we shouldn’t really look to load up on Boston bats just in an effort to be contrarian. Andriese has posted some decent results this year, but he allows hard contact 33.8% of the time and will likely regrees toward a higher BABIP than his current .279 mark. Boston still leads the league in wOBA against RHP, and they are obviously in a good spot here at home. The top hitters to target here would be David Ortiz (179 wRC+, .443 wOBA, .362 ISO vs RHP) and Mookie Betts (146 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .231 ISO vs RHP). Brock Holt (.150 ISO vs RHP) is also an essential target if stacking Boston given his affordable price tag and bump to the lead off position.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Matt Andriese Tanner Roark has just a 5.5 K-BB% with an ERA and estimators above five over last seven starts
The Phillies are projected for just 3.66 runs tonight, which makes one think an $8.5K Tanner Roark might be a popular arm (check our Projected Ownership page once it updates today), but there may be reasons to consider fading him tonight. While he’s built his 19.5 K% on a 15 strikeout performance in April that he has not even come within seven strikeouts in a game of since, he’s continued to generate extremely weak contact through most of the season and still has just a 0.6 Hard-Soft% for the season. Over his last seven starts, however, he has just a 5.5 K-BB% with a bit more hard contact (28.8%). His ERA and estimators are both above five. That’s well over a month of data calling him a below average pitcher, who’s striking out barely more batters than he’s walked. Consider looking elsewhere for your pitching needs if he’s going to be a popular pick tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership The Cubs face off against a pitcher who has only logged 11 innings in the majors this year
The Cubs will face Brock Stewart, a right-handed pitcher who has only pitched 11 innings in the majors in 2016. The Cubs have been hot, sending 5 batters to the plate today with wRC+ totals greater than 130 over the last 7 days. Over the last week, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist have wRC+ totals of 247, 145, 144, 134, and 131, respectively. Stacking the Cubs is rarely a bad strategy and looks to be a fantastic way to capture production today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Brock Stewart
The White Sox face Taijuan Walker at home today
Taijuan Walker will face off against the White Sox today in Chicago. Walker looks to get back on track, but he will have to hold down the White Sox LHBs like Justin Morneau and Adam Eaton. Morneau and Eaton have shown power against RHP, holding ISOs of 0.204 and 0.156, respectively. Meanwhile, Walker has allowed a fly ball percentage to LHBs of 46%, exacerbated by a hard contact rate allowed to lefties of 32%. For anyone considering a full White Sox stack, be sure to include Todd Frazier who is hitting the ball hard 41% of the time over the last 7 days.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Taijuan Walker, Adam Eaton The Texas Rangers look to take advantage of a scuffling right-handed pitcher
Over the last couple of weeks, pitcher X has been striking out 10% of batters, while giving up a 50% fly ball percentage and a 35% hard contact rate. Over this period, pitcher X has a SIERA of 8.06 and K/BB ratio of 0.50. It would surprise many to find out that this pitcher is…Danny Salazar, a pitcher known for his strikeout rate north of 25% in 2015. If Salazar continues his struggles today, look to target him with batters on both sides of the plate. Salazar has an xFIP of 4.17 against RHBs, making a hitter like Jonathan Lucroy a premium option at the catcher position. Lucroy has displayed plenty of power versus right-handed pitching, holding a 0.255 ISO on the year versus righties.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Danny Salazar