DFS Alerts
Sanchez moved up to third, Judge sixth facing Weaver in LA
Gary Sanchez has been crushing baseballs in Yankee Stadium (246 wRC+, .405 ISO vs RHP) and has a 322 wRC+ overall this past week, but now we get to see if he can do it in a pitcher’s park. In his favor though are Jered Weaver, who has allowed 26 RHs this season and a .349 wOBA to RHBs since last season and a lineup bump to third tonight, while he still costs $3.2K or less on either site. He’s a great play at Catcher against a HR prone pitcher at a reasonable price. Aaron Judge moves up to sixth and has a 227 wRC+ since his promotion at a similar cost. There really aren’t many other Yankee bats that look extremely strong with a fairly significant park downgrade. Brian McCann has a 102 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP this year, but Sanchez is cheaper at the same position. No other bat is above average against RHP this year and if they’ve struggled at Yankee Stadium, they’re unlikely to come out smoking in a much tougher park.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Brian McCann, Jered Weaver
Greinke looks to finally get back on track against strikeout-happy Padres lineup
Zack Greinke is coming off a horrendous pitching performance against the Red Sox his last time out. We’ll have to give him a little bit of a break, as it was a tough matchup and Greinke is still trying to get back to form after a long stint on the disabled list. However, even his season –long numbers are not exactly what we’d normally expect from Greinke, as his SIERA sits at 3.85 and his strikeout rate has shrunk to 20.5% while surrendering an uncharacteristically high 30.4% hard contact rate. On the plus side, Greinke still isn’t walking anyone (4.5% BB%), but opposing hitters seem to be squaring him up more frequently than in past seasons. This matchup looks great on paper with the Padres owning the league’s worst wOBA (.292) and second highest strikeout rate (24.5%) to right-handed pitching. With that said, the Padres have been much better versus RHP since Ryan Schimpf (146 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .341 ISO vs RHP) and Alex Dickerson (127 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .245 ISO vs RHP) became everyday starters for San Diego. Greinke is the preferred option for tournaments here, but a case can certainly be made for attacking him with a few Padres lefty bats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson
Giants implied run total on the rise, up to 4.4 runs
Seth Lugo makes his first major league start tonight for the Mets at San Francisco. He has actually looked pretty good in 17 bullpen innings and had decent numbers in the minors. This isn’t a spot where we should be super high on the Giants, but certainly they have enough talent and are a pesky enough offense to make life tough on rookie pitcher. This would be a full stack or nothing situation, as we don’t really know what to expect from Lugo, and we’re really hoping for a blow up that turns this into a bullpen game with production up and down the Giants lineup. Brandon Belt (136 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .194 ISO vs RHP), Buster Posey (119 wRC+, .343 wOBA vs RHP), and Angel Pagan (122 wRC+, .346 wOBA vs RHP) are the top options to consider.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Angel Pagan, Seth Lugo Rockies projected for just 10th best 4.7 runs at home tonight
A 4.7 run projection is only 10th on the board and the lowest in memory for the Rockies at home. Add in some major weather concerns tonight and this might be the perfect night to fade this lineup against Kyle Hendricks, who has dominated contact this season (25.6 Soft%, 24.1 Hard%) with a 22.3 Hard%. Weather concerns and an $8K price tag in Coors probably keep us off him as well. It’s a low run projection for the Rockies, not low relative to other projected run totals. Bats like Blackmon (130 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP this season) and Gonzalez (135 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP this season) still project well, just not as strongly as usual at home with the same enormous price tags.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon Masahiro Tanaka has struck out 16 of last 51 batters and gets a major park upgrade against Angels
Masahiro Tanaka has struck out 16 of his last 51 batters and hasn’t walked a batter in three starts. Contact hasn’t been very good, as he now has a 34.3 Hard% on the season and long gone is his excellent ground ball rate from early in the season. Further disappointing news is that he faces the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (15.7% vs RHP), but it’s an otherwise mostly neutral offense (100 wRC+ v RHP) without a lot of power in a pitchers’ park (9.8 HR/FB vs RHP). What we lose in strikeouts, there’s a good chance he gains back in innings and run prevention here with the Angels projected for less than four runs. Tanaka does cost $9K, but we have to lean more on batted ball outcomes without a lot of strikeouts across the board tonight. As usual, an expensive Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP this season) is the only consideration on the home team side.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mike Trout Differing degrees of risk in several spots, worst in Colorado tonight
While the norm seems to be some degree of risk associated with Colorado this time of year, Kevin’s code ORANGE tonight is a bit more concerning than usual. The good news is that with the Cubs run projection dropping and Hendricks on the mound, tonight may have been shaping up as a decent night to fade Coors anyway. Along with that, Washington Atlanta is ORANGE/YELLOW with Teheran potentially on a lower pitch count returning from injury, this may add enough concern to take him off the board. Minnesota Kansas City is YELLOW/ORANGE as well, but there should be little interest in the pitching there anyway. There’s a lot to digest, so it’s recommended that players visit our Weather Page to read Kevin’s full report and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further important updates.
Zobrist gets the night off in Coors as Cubs run projection has dropped since opening above six
Tyler Anderson has had some success at Coors this year (3.04 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 15.6 K-BB%, 53.4 GB% at home), but this is a very dangerous spot against a Cubs lineup with a 115 wRC+ vs LHP that will only be accentuated by this extremely positive run environment. It looks a little less potent without Ben Zobrist in the lineup and some could even argue for fading high priced bats here after the run projection has dropped from above six to 5.7 runs around an hour ago, but Kris Bryant (172 wRC+, .318 ISO vs LHP this season) could do some major damage here. He enters Coors with a 276 wRC+ and 45.8 Hard% over the last week. Dexter Fowler is traditionally a stronger bat vs LHP too (142 wRC+, .159 ISO since 2015), but the value play here may be Javier Baez (155 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP career) for just $3.2K on FanDuel. Matt Szczur (115 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP this season) is the other reasonably priced player here ($4.1K on DK, $3K on FD).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Tyler Anderson, Dexter Fowler, Javier Baez White Sox bats are in plus matchup, albeit, an extremely unexciting one
Graveman is one of those low strikeout pitchers (13.9% K%) who look like they should be getting shelled every time out, but more often than not, it’s only an underwhelming couple few runs that makes it frustrating to stack against. He has high ground balls to both right and left-handed batters (52.7%) with very low strikeouts and walks to righties but slightly higher in both categories as well as a ton of hard hits (33.6%). We could certainly play a Jose Abreu (118 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .163 ISO vs RHP) or Todd Frazier (.225 ISO vs RHP) as a one off, as Graveman will allow the occasional home run, but it’s still pretty low probability here. Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera are certainly likely to pick up a couple hits, but there’s not much reason to chase after them. This spot just screams stack or fade in regards to the White Sox offense.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Kendall Graveman James Shields has allowed 21 runs in his last 9.1 innings with twice as many HRs as Ks
James Shields has allowed 21 runs in only 9.1 August innings, covering three starts in which he’s walked five and struck out just three with six HRs. That’s twice as many HRs as Ks, resulting in a 9.00 ERA over the last month with a 6.14 SIERA and 7.08 xFIP with an 8.40 FIP. That’s how you get a team like Oakland (89 wRC+ vs RHP) projected for 4.8 runs. While Khris Davis (111 wRC+, .263 ISO) has been their best hitter with the most power against RHP, Danny Valencia (103 wRC+, .139 ISO vs RHP this season) does have a 170 wRC+ over the last week and RHBs do have a 34.2 Hard% against Shields since last season. It might surprise players to learn that Ryon Healy (107 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Coco Crisp (103 wRC+, .192 ISO) are second and third in the lineup in ISO vs RHP this year. Healy costs just $3.3K on DraftKings, though there aren’t many bats priced below $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Coco Crisp, Ryon Healy, James Shields Adam Morgan is allowing an astronomical 2.38 HR/9 to RHB
Morgan (4.48 SIERA) may not be be as bad as his 6.62 ERA and 37.0% hard contact rate allowed would indicate, but he is still not very good. Morgan has some massive struggles against right-handed batters, as they have a .403 wOBA to go along with a 38.9% hard contact rate. He also surrenders more fly balls (41.8%) to right-handed batters and has a much more difficult time getting them out with any sort of consistency. This great news for the upside of Cardinals righties like Stephen Piscotty (168 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .280 ISO vs LHP), Tommy Pham (117 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .298 ISO vs LHP), Yadier Molina, and Jhonny Peralta. Even though he sacrifices the platoon advantage, Matt Carpenter (129 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .174 ISO vs LHP) remains in consideration due to his ability to hit left-handed pitching and he is simply a better hitter than Morgan is a pitcher.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta, Matt Carpenter, Adam Morgan RHBs have a .340 wOBA and 31 HRs against Wade Miley since 2015
Wade Miley is a lefty who struggles with RHBs, allowing a .340 wOBA since last season. They have 31 of his 37 HRs surrendered since last season despite just a 27.7 Hard%. The Astros will strike out a bit (22% on the road and vs LHP), but have a 15.4 HR/FB vs LHP. This is not a good spot for Miley in his new home park. It may be a good spot for the top of the Houston lineup, particularly those who mash LHP in Altuve (195 wRC+, .235 ISO this season) and Springer (164 wRC+, .293 ISO this season). Both are fairly expensive, but still decent values tonight, though that may keep their ownership below 10% according to our Ownership Projection page. Evan Gattis (124 wRC+, .288 ISO vs LHP this season) is slightly cheaper with just as much power, though less of an all around offensive player.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, Wade Miley Murphy OUT, Revere moves up to second as Teheran returns from the DL
Julio Teheran has missed a few weeks with a back issue. He pitched well in a single AAA rehab start, striking out five in five innings, facing just three above the minimum, but that also makes him less likely to go very deep tonight, which we’ll need from a pitcher priced more than $8K, who doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (22.4%). This might be a spot where we want to fade Teheran, but don’t really look to attack him either. Bryce Harper (129 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season) may be a high priced consideration though. He has caught fire again (267 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%), though some of those numbers may be over-stated by a trip to Colorado. We’re expecting to see a poor bullpen early and a healthy Harper can hit both right and left-handed pitchers. With Murphy out, for some reason, Dusty Baker wants to give more opportunities to Ben Revere (43 wRC+ vs RHP this season) in the second spot tonight.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper Logan Forsythe, the Rays best hitter versus LHP, out of the lineup Friday
Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than his advanced metrics indicate, as he has been saddled with some tough matchups all year long. This is a little bit of a softer landing spot against the Rays, who have been striking out in bunches over the past couple of months. The Rays now have the highest strikeout rate in the league at 25.3% against left-handed pitching, and their team wOBA has slipped all the way to 20th against southpaws. We no longer have to be afraid to use left-handed pitchers against them, but the masses could stick to the old notions that we don’t take left-handed pitchers against the Rays. There is some risk obviously, as Hamels’ 4.07 SIERA and 9.1% walk rate are the worst marks of his major league career. The upside is still there (12.3% SwStr%), and his 23% strikeout rate should see a boost with a matchup against the Rays.
As reported by: FanGraphs 
Marlins projected for a slate low 3.15 runs against Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole has allowed nine ERs over his last two starts (10 innings), but had been pitching better previously and has pushed his strikeout rate up to league average (19.6%). He hasn’t allowed a HR in 10 starts and just three on the season. While his 3.3 HR/FB is in no way sustainable, his 5.9 Hard-Soft% is a career best and he pitches in a great park, one that crushes RH power. He faces a Marlins team that just lost its’ most powerful bat and had just a 10.3 HR/FB on the road and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP with him, containing names like Skruggs and Andino instead of Stanton now. This is shaping up to be a great spot for him at home for just $7.5K on DraftKings and even for $9.1K on FanDuel as a sizable favorite (currently -155). He may not be striking out as many batters as he has in the past, but that’s less of a concern tonight without a lot of strikeouts anywhere on the board. The Marlins are projected for a slate low 3.15 runs. There is no interest in their lineup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Robert Andino