DFS Alerts
Indians draw ultimate boom or bust matchup against Francisco Liriano
This has the feeling of a matchup that is nearly impossible to predict. Francisco Liriano has had some dreadful control issues this season but has been much better in that regard since being traded to the Blue Jays (7.4% BB%). Liriano is also allowing 1.60 HR/9 to right-handed batters which stems from a fluky 19.8% HR/FB rate, but hasn’t regressed as quickly as it should due to the 35.0% hard contact rate he is surrendering to right-handed batters. Despite a high ground ball rate (58.8%), he is also giving up a lot of hard hits (37.8%) and above average home runs to left-handed bats. Mike Napoli (.398 wOBA, .265 ISO vs LHP) and Brandon Guyer (.453 wOBA, .247 ISO vs LHP) offer the biggest individual power upside in this matchup, while Jose Ramirez (131 wRC+, .366 wOBA vs LHP), Francisco Lindor and Rajai Davis are in consideration as a part of Cleveland stacks in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Rajai Davis, Francisco Liriano
Rick Porcello has a 2.40 ERA since the All-Star break, but just a .200 BABIP and 7.0 SwStr%
Since the break (six starts), Rick Porcello has held batters to a .200 BABIP, fueling a 2.40 ERA a run and a half below his HR neutral estimators (xFIP, SIERA). He has shown exceptional control (3.0 BB%), but with just a 7.0 SwStr%. It’s very difficult to endorse paying $11.4K (or $9.5K on FanDuel) for the ninth lowest SwStr% since the break, especially in Detroit, even if they are a bit banged up. All of the big bats are still there and two of them hit RHP very well with a reduced price tag (between $3.5K and $4K) on DraftKings. Miguel Cabrera (144 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP this season) and J.D. Martinez (152 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this season) are both affordable candidates against an over-priced pitcher tonight. Tyler Collings (102 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP this season) costs near the minimum on either site.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Tyler Collins, Rick Porcello
Michael Fulmer's 2.25 ERA is backed by a .248 BABIP and 83.3 LOB%, faces red hot Red Sox tonight
Michael Fulmer struck out nine of 30 Rangers in his first career shutout last time out, allowing just four hits and not a single walk. That pushed his K-BB a bit above average to 15%, which is a nice number, but not exceptional. His 3.85 SIERA and 3.70 xFIP suggest a fine pitcher, but his 2.25 ERA is backed by a .248 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% that are both serious regression candidates. His cost is less than $10K on either site, but it’s not his peripherals that are keeping it down, but rather a matchup with the Red Sox (115 wRC+ vs RHP), who have caught fire again (141 wRC+ over the last week). They are projected for just a very mediocre 4.35 runs though, so perhaps this matchup is looking like a fade on both ends.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds McHugh owns a 18.0% K-BB% to RHB this season
The pitching options on this full slate are surprising slim, which brings us to Colin McHugh. The Orioles have a high implied run total of 4.7 runs, which is slightly concerning after they shelled Joe Musgrove last night. If we’re looking to take a flier in tournaments, McHugh (3.90 SIERA) could be our guy, as he has a 22.8% strikeout rate that is supported by a respectable 10.8% SwStr%. Clearly, McHugh possesses the same type of upside we expected from Musgrove yesterday at a similar price, except we know that McHugh has flashed his upside in these type of matchups several times this season. If not willing to take a chance on McHugh at pitcher, the Orioles power bats are certainly viable tournament options as one offs or even as a stack. Manny Machado (140 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .264 ISO vs RHP), Mark Trumbo (136 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHP), Adam Jones (121 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP), and Chris Davis (.242 ISO vs RHP) make the most sense here.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Chris Davis Matt Andriese has struck out 16 of 60 batters last three starts, Rangers projected for just four runs
Matt Andriese returned to the rotation at the beginning of August and has struck out 16 of 60 batters, though in only a total of 13.2 innings He should be in line for more than 80 pitches after exactly 76 in his first two starts, which should get him through five or even nearly six if all goes well and there may be some reason to think that it might. The Rangers have a below average offense (90 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs RHP) that is pumped up by a great scoring environment in Texas, but they are a matchup players can take advantage of in neutral or better parks, which includes Tampa Bay tonight. Vegas appears to agree as they are only projected for exactly four runs. The concern here is length, but the good news is Andriese costs less than $7K (just $6K on FanDuel). He has kept batters from either side to a wOBA of .303 or less since last season and the Rangers have just a single bat above a 115 wRC+ vs RHP this season. That’s Jonathan Lucroy (135 wRC+, .211 ISO), who costs $5.1K on DraftKings. Carlos Beltran (115 wRC+, .221 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (101 wRC+, .223 ISO) have both shown some power against RHP this year (though in more favorable parks) and cost $3.6K or less on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Beltran, Mitch Moreland Dodgers have the highest run projection outside Coors (5.3), but also some of the highest prices
A hot Dodgers offense, the second best offense in baseball since the All-Star break (118 wRC+), are projected for a second best 5.3 runs tonight, facing Timothy Adleman, making his fifth career start. He has a below average K% in AA and AAA the last two seasons, while in a short sample of just 19 major league innings, three of 39 LHBs have homered off him, good for a 43.3 wOBA. The 28 year-old rookie is merely filling a need on a bad team at the moment and should be punished by an LA lineup that now has all of the batters in today’s lineup better than a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Seager, Pederson, and Turner all are above a 140 wRC+ and .225 ISO against RHP this season. Yasmani Grandal (122 wRC+) ties Pederson for the team lead with a .272 ISO vs RHP. Despite a 68.8 Hard%, he and Reddick are the only bats in the lineup with an overall wRC+ below 140 over the last week. Dodger bats are among the most expensive on either site (none below $3K on FanDuel or $4K on DraftKings), but are also projected to do the most damage outside of Coors. Check out our new Projected Ownership page when it updates to see who might be the lowest owned bats in this potent lineup tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Josh Reddick, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Tim Adleman Zack Cozart scratched, Ivan De Jesus now batting 2nd
Cozart will now miss yet another game, leaving the SS duties and #2 spot in the order to Ivan De Jesus. This is a slight bump for Bud Norris, but he’s still a very risky target given that he could be limited in terms of his pitch count.
As reported by: Jamie Ramsey
Bud Norris returns from DL in a good matchup in Cincinnati (86 wRC+ vs RHP)
Bud Norris returns from the DL due to a back issue to face the Reds. He had a 19.2 K-BB% over 58 innings since Atlanta restored him to the starting rotation before the trade. He faced 22 A ball batters in a rehab start, striking out just four and the normal course of action would be to exercise caution with pitchers returning from injury, but he returns in a favorable spot in Cincinnati against an offense that struggles against RHP (86 wRC+) and has a 22.3 K% at home, while he costs just $5.7K on DraftKings. He may be able to surpass that price even if he’s on a lower pitch count tonight. This is a pitcher who has struggled with LHBs though (.382 wOBA, 40.3 Hard% since last season). Joey Votto (164 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) continues to be a consistent top bat (203 wRC+, 59.1 Hard% last seven days). Schebler and Barnhart are below average LHBs that cost around $2.5K on FanDuel if you need to punt an Outfield or Catcher spot. This may be a spot where Billy Hamilton can run and he’s up to a 90 wRC+ on the year vs RHP, but he costs more than $5K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Bud Norris, Scott Schebler, Tucker Barnhart, Billy Hamilton Madison Bumgarner has a 24.2 K-BB% at home since last season
Madison Bumgarner has gone at least seven innings with seven strikeouts and no more than one run in three of his last four. He has a 24.2 K-BB% at home since last season. Although he’s a -140 favorite, he is facing another top pitcher in Jacob deGrom, which may make it more difficult to attain a Win on FanDuel and he is also a slate high $13.6K on FanDuel. He’s a top pitcher tonight if players can afford him though. The Mets lineup is still not yet known, but it’s tough to imagine a player we’d want to use against Bumgarner in this park, even with Flores smashing lefties this year (191 wRC+, .321 ISO).
Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores Cesar Hernandez scratched, Taylor Featherston to play 2B
Featherston will fill in for Hernandez at 2B, but he’ll be slotted into the 8th spot in the lineup. Featherston is not a DFS option and this news only further ups the ceiling of Ross Stripling, who is one of the better value plays at the pitcher spot.
As reported by: Matt Gelb Other tagged players: Taylor Featherston Shoemaker has an elite 23.2% K-BB% at home this season
Even after a rough stretch over the last month or so, the pitching profile of Matt Shoemaker is still fairly solid, as his SIERA sits at 3.89. If we remove that stretch, he has obviously been much better than his SIERA would indicate. Shoemaker provides more than decent strikeout upside in this matchup, as his strikeout rate sits at 21.5% on the season to go along with an elite 13.0% SwStr%. Shoemaker has been really good against left-handed batters, which should work in his favor against this lefty-heavy Seattle lineup. Shoemaker should make for a good contrarian tournament play in tournaments, as the masses may just write him off straight away after taking a peak at Seattle’s season-long stats versus right-handed pitching. This could be a mistake in which we can capitalize.
As reported by: FanGraphs High priced Arizona lineup may be difficult to afford in Petco against Clemens
Paul Clemens is a pretty awful pitcher with a 4.73 ERA and estimators even higher. Interestingly, RHBs have crushed him for a .433 wOBA this year, while LHBs are below .300. Arizona only has two LHBs in the lineup tonight, but only Jean Segura (117 wRC+) and Paul Goldschmidt (130 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP) are above average vs RHP this year among their RH bats and they play in a great park. Further disappointing is the fact that they retain price tags as if they were playing in that great park and not Petco. Projected to score just 4.2 runs tonight, Goldschmidt looks like he may be the only reasonable play here in a lineup particularly difficult to budget for players paying up for pitching.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jean Segura, Paul Clemens Jacob deGrom has a 27.9 K% over his last 15 starts and a 94+ mph average velocity last 3 starts
Jacob deGrom has now pitched at least two outs into the seventh inning in six of his last seven starts and actually has a 27.9 K% over his last 15 starts with a 22.4 K-BB% that is the equivalent of Danny Duffy’s sixth best mark in the majors this season. His 94.7 mph average velocity in his last start was his second highest mark of the season and he’s now put together three straight starts averaging 94 mph or better for the first time this season. Though he has an 87.0 LOB% over this 15 start span, this is a pitcher who is peaking. He may experience a drop in strikeout rate tonight in San Francisco (17.6%), but he’ll do so in one of the best pitching environments in the league. He’s also likely to be the lowest owned of the three highly priced pitchers at the same cost as Fernandez and facing Bumgarner as the dog in this matchup (+130), but the Giants have been well below .500 since the All-Star break, so he has a decent shot at a W. There’s no interest in Giants bats against a very good pitcher in a tough park.
Some concern for Washington @ Atlanta in Kevin's evening update
Washington Atlanta is the only game on the slate tonight that Kevin has any concerns about. While a late start is likely, he expects it to eventually clear, but still grades it ORANGE/YELLOW. It's an interesting matchup with two low priced pitchers who have improved their prospect status with strong minor league seasons this year, but it's not a spot that players should have too many issues fading tonight if the forecast takes a turn for the worse. Read Kevin's full report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates on this game.
Dillon Gee owns a 7.2% K-BB% versus LHB
Gee has been a fairly splits neutral pitcher this season, albeit those splits aren’t necessarily good. Gee is a fly ball pitcher (38.4%) that relies a lot on batted ball outcomes as he has a below average 18.0% strikeout rate. Gee is allowing basically league average hard contact to right-handed batters but has been hit much harder by left-handed batters (33.8% Hard ) and he is definitely susceptible to the home run ball (16.7 HR/FB). The downside here is that this game is being played in Kansas City which really limits the power upside of the Twins hitters as Kaufmann Stadium is a notorious pitcher’s park when it comes to home runs. Max Kepler (141 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .291 ISO vs RHP) is the top option here and provides the most upside in the Twins lineup. Robbie Grossman (.153 ISO vs RHP) is a nice value but he finds himself batting at the bottom of the order, limiting his viability to solely tournaments. Jorge Polanco (113 wRC+, .341 WOBA vs RHP), Miguel Sano (.236 ISO vs RHP), and Brian Dozier (.225 ISO vs RHP) round out our targets for Twins stacks in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Robbie Grossman, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Dillon Gee