DFS Alerts
Good news: David has an updated weather report. Bad news: BOS/DET, LAD/CIN, and WAS/ATL weather did not improve and is still rated ORANGE/YELLOW or worse
We are happy to have an updated weather report, but the bad news is that weather for the BOS/DET, LAD/CIN, and WAS/ATL matchups did not improve. Check the full weather report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather
(Coors Field) + (Hoffman's reverse splits) = Play Kris Bryant
In the minors this year, Jeff Hoffman has a higher OPS, 0.796, against RHB than LHB, 0.679. Reverse splits are hard to determine in a small sample size, but the game is being played in Coors field today, meaning the margin of error for a pitcher was already small. Look to Kris Bryant to take advantage of a young pitcher’s mistake, showing us all why he has a 0.245 ISO against right-handed pitching.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jeff Hoffman 3 Reasons to play Paulo Orlando
Reason #1: Orlando will be leading off for the Royals and facing a pitcher, Hector Santiago, who grades as an average pitcher against the steal even though he is a LHP (a -0.01 on the RotoGrinders stolen base tool). Additionally, Orlando has a speed rating on FanGraphs of 6.5, faster than Lorenzo Cain’s speed rating of 6.3. Reason #2: Orlando has a wRC+ of 152 versus LHP. Reason #3: Hector Santiago is giving up hard contact in the air to RHBs, giving up a hard hit percentage of 37%, paired with a 51% fly ball percentage.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Stolen Base Tool Other tagged players: Hector Santiago A trio of Astros right-handed bats is plenty capable of lighting up Chris Tillman today
After a strong start, Chris Tillman’s ability to miss bats has been steadily declining. After a 24% strikeout percentage in March/April, Tillman’s k % is down to 16% in August. Over the last 30 days, Tillman is giving up 36% hard contact and appears to be hittable, possessing an xFIP of 3.61. Tillman has not displayed distinct splits this year, which points to selecting both LHBs and RHBs on the Astros today. After last night’s game, the Astros may not be sneaky, but Jose Altuve (wRC+ vs. RHP of 158), Carlos Correa (wRC+ vs. RHP of 132) and even George Springer (wRC+ vs. RHP of 107) all look to be incredibly high upside options today in Baltimore.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, George Springer Josh Tomlin gives up hard contact to LHBs, a bad tendency for a pitcher throwing at the Rogers Centre
Josh Tomlin has been giving up a hard contact percentage against LHBs of 40%. This contact can be problematic when paired with a fly ball percentage near 34%, making the left-handed swinging hitters just as interesting as the usual right-handed mashers on the Blue Jays. Look to Russel Martin at the catching position, a batter who has a hilariously impressive 407 wRC+ over the last week.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Tomlin Ross Detwiler continues to keep the ball on the ground versus LHBs, leaving only White Sox RHB in play
Ross Detwiler has a unique delivery that has allowed him to limit the fly balls allowed to LHBs, giving up a 17% fly ball percentage in 2015. Right-handed bats, however, have been able to hit Detwiler hard at times, leading to a 2.27 HR/9 in 2015. After looking at the White Sox hitters’ wRC+ totals over the last seven days, Tim Anderson is the only right-handed batter with a wRC+ over 100, sitting at 184), and approximately half of his contact has resulted in ground balls. It would be wise to stop short of recommending Detwiler as a pitcher today, but the White Sox do appear to be a punchless offense against a pitcher with stark splits like Detwiler.
As reported by: FanGraphs Odubel Herrera will be batting 2nd for Philadelphia, facing Luke Weaver, a pitcher with respectable AA numbers
Luke Weaver held both LHB and RHB to an OPS below 0.605 but did so with a WHIP near 1.00. Although Weaver was plenty good against LHBs, he did show more relative vulnerability versus LHBs, allowing a slugging percentage of 0.349 in AA, compared to just 0.279 versus RHBs. Odubel Herrera has been strikeout rate of 18% this year against RHP. His 126 wRC+ highlights how productive he has been against righties, and his 0.170 ISO is simply a bonus for a speed guy who will be batting 2nd. Yadier Molina will be catching for the Cardinals, so he will most likely not be running today, slightly limiting his upside that usually involves stolen base potential.
As reported by: Baseball Reference and MLB Press Brandon Finnegan continues to give up hard contact in the air, making Howie Kendrick a viable option at 2B
Brandon Finnegan continues to struggle, allowing an enormous hard contact percentage of 40% over his last couple of starts. This hard contact would be less problematic if it were on the ground, but his 49% fly ball percentage points to Finnegan allowing the worst kind of hard contact if the objective is to prevent home runs. Howie Kendrick is a solid RHB, sporting a wRC+ of 103, striking out in 18% of at-bats versus LHP. DFS players should view Kendrick as a value play at the 2B position.
As reported by: FanGraphs David Phelps looks to continue his streak of good outings
Michael Phelps is not the only Phelps having a good August, considering David Phelps has an August xFIP of 3.11. David has had success missing bats, holding an August k % of 29%, and when he is allowing contact, he has been able to suppress hard contact, giving up a respectable 25% hard contact. Phelps has been much tougher on RHBs, holding an xFIP of 2.38 and a k % of 37%, compared to an xFIP of 4.50 and a k% of 24% versus LHBs. His k% is likely to drop versus both sides of the plate, but he still has been impressive versus RHBs and will be facing RHBs 75% of the time today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jonathan Lucroy looks to commit righty-on-righty crime in Tampa Bay today
It feels like Deja Vu with Jake Odorizzi after looking at Matt Moore’s last couple of starts, observing Odorizzi’s high fly ball percentage (54%), high hard and medium contact (95% total), and his elevated xFIP of 5.93. Over that same period, a strikeout rate of 19% is not quite high enough to get Jake out of trouble, especially when facing RHB, who Odorizzi strikes out only 18% of the time on the season, compared to 27% versus LHB. Odorizzi’s reverse tendencies have continued this year, and while his fly ball percentage and hard hit percentage look quite similar between LHBs and RHBs (44% FB and 32% HH), the inability to whiff RHBs has led to the elevated 4.92 xFIP. None of the Rangers present at the All-Star Break hit RHP especially well, but one of the newest Rangers RHB, Jonathan Lucroy, has been killing RHP this year. Versus RHP, Lucroy has a wRC+ of 158, an ISO of 0.355, and a wOBA of 0.415. We won’t call Lucroy a high floor player because of his 23% k rate versus RHP, but his power numbers make him a fantastic GPP play at the catcher position.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jake Odorizzi Wilmer provides a high floor at the hot corner today, facing Matt Moore in San Francisco
Matt Moore has all the peripherals over his last few starts of a pitcher to target with good right-handed bats. Over his last couple of starts, Moore has a fly ball percentage of 44%, a hard plus medium contact percentage of 90% (that is only 10% soft contact), and an xFIP of 5.13. The only statistic that appears to give Moore a glimmer of hope of succeeding today is a 23% k rate over that same period. Considering Moore’s ability to strike out both LHBs and RHBs at a rate of about 20%, stacking the Mets may not be a viable strategy. Playing a Mets bat like Wilmer Flores, on the other hand, looks to be a fantastic idea. Flores has a ridiculous wRC+ of 185 against LHP, bolstered by a silly 0.314 ISO. Flores will bat fifth and makes a terrific high floor/high upside play at 3B.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Matt Moore Roth's early forecast includes ORANGE or ORANGE/YELLOW in Detroit, Cincinnati, and Atlanta
Roth has a handful of games for DFS players to monitor and potentially avoid. BOS vs. DET has a rating of ORANGE, while both LAD vs. CIN and WAS vs. ATL have ratings of ORANGE/YELLOW. Check out his full report for details and look for possible updates from David Wolter later on in the day.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Charlie Blackmon scratched from lineup Friday
Blackmon has been scratched from the Rockies lineup with a big toe contusion. Unfortunately, it’s too late to remove Blackmon from lineups on late swap sites but Ben Paulsen will replace him and bat eighth. David Dahl gets the bump to the lead off spot.
As reported by: Ben Weinrib Verified Twitter Account Other tagged players: Ben Paulsen, David Dahl
Start of CHC/COL game to be delayed due to rain Friday
The start of the Cubs-Rockies game will begin in a rain delay due to inclement weather. New start time is still to be determined. We’ll continue to update if and when more information becomes available prior to lock on late swap sites.
As reported by: Chicago cubs Official Twitter Account Cepedes and Cabrera back for Mets as they face Cueto in San Francisco
San Francisco played like Coors last night in what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel and the Mets get both Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera back tonight, but this matchup still looks to favor Johnny Cueto. With just a 22.4 K%, we’re asked to pay an exorbitant price on either site for batted ball outcomes, but if we are going to do that, this is the park to do so in and there aren’t many higher strikeout rates tonight. Additionally, the Mets strike out 22% of the time both on the road and vs RHP. Cueto has also been suppressing HRs earlier in the season, but has allowed nine over his last nine starts. He’s still likely a top five arm tonight.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera