DFS Alerts
Kevin Roth's weather report shows only mild weather concerns in Kansas City
Roth’s weather report shows only one game worth monitoring, giving the TOR/KC game a rating of YELLOW/ORANGE. Roth advises monitoring this game because of the chances of a second line popping up, but still likes the chances of the game playing. Check out his full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Forum
Dan Straily faces a Pirates lineup coming off of a horrendous week of hitting
Dan Straily has shown that he can struggle versus both LHBs and RHBs, giving up a fly ball percentage of 45% to both sides. There is enough elite pitching on the slate that considering Straily would probably be irresponsible, especially with Dylan Bundy on the slate for a similar price. Still, it is worth noting that no player in the Pirates starting lineup has a wRC+ total over 115 over the last week and only two players, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen, even have wRC+ totals over 100. If the Pirates have a success today, it would be the definition of a break out performance.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte Madison Bumgarner will probably bounce back today, but if he does not, the Nats hitters are plenty capable of hitting LHP
Madison Bumgarner will probably bounce back after his 10 hit, 8 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 inning outing against the Phillies. However, for the contrarians out there, the Nationals bats who have been productive versus left-handed pitching are Jayson Werth (174 wRC+ versus LHP), Daniel Murphy (146 wRC+ versus LHP), Wilson Ramos (144 wRC+ versus LHP), and Chris Heisey/Anthony Rendon (131 wRC+ versus LHP). Bumgarner is elite, and has a xFIP versus RHBs of 3.45 on the season, but just in case he is in a funk, you now know the five Nats bats in the lineup today with wRC+ totals over 131 versus southpaws.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Madison Bumgarner Considering Anibal Sanchez has struggled more vs. RHB than vs. LHB, the Mets lineup is suboptimal
Anibal Sanchez has been a terrible pitcher at times, but much of those struggles have been because of his numbers versus RHBs, including a 48% FB percentage, 17% k rate, a 33% hard contact percentage, and a 1.94 HR/9. Again, he does not become Clayton Kershaw versus LHBs, but he is in a different tier of bad, possessing a 32% FB percentage, a 22% k rate, a 30% hard contact percentage, and a 1.27 HR/9. This is not an endorsement of using Sanchez today versus the Mets, but more of a public service announcement to the DFS community to view these numbers before getting to carried away with a Mets lineup that has 7 left-handed batters in the lineup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Anibal Sanchez Kyle Gibson epitomizes average and faces they Rays, leaving Longoria and Miller in play
Kyle Gibson is the epitome of an average major league pitcher and his peripherals support that notion. On the year, he has under a 30% fly ball percentage against both sides of the plate, but has surrendered over 1.00 HR/9 to both LHBs and RHBs. Gibson has limited hard contact to less than 30% against both sides of the plate, but is striking out LHBs 15% of the time and RHB 19% of the time. So, we have a pitcher who doesn’t strike many batters out, doesn’t give up a large excessive amount of hard contact, doesn’t give up an excessive amount of flyballs, but still has managed to safely give up over a home run per 9 innings to both sides of the plate. Stacking against Gibson may be tempting on the surface, but perhaps it would be advisable to only use the best Rays bats, beginning with Evan Longoria and Brad Miller who will be batting 3rd and 4th today, respectively.
Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Kyle Gibson An ice cold Carlos Carrasco faces a red hot Yankees team
Over his last few starts, Carlos Carrasco has only been striking out 13% of batters which has led to a ballooned xFIP of 5.34. Surprisingly, he has fared almost equally well against LHBs and RHBs, possessing an xFIP of 3.68 versus LHB and an xFIP of 3.81 versus RHB. The Yankees have not been great for most of the year, but Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury do all have wRC+ totals above 138 over the last week.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Carrasco Right-handed Padres are in play against RHP Jake Thompson
Jake Thompson has displayed an inability to dominatef RHB in the minors this year, possessing a OPS of 0.716 against RHBs. Thompson’s OPS does not seem to point to a Padres stack, but using a single right-handed power bat like Wil Myers would be a viable strategy. Myers has a wRC+ against RHP of 120 and should be a low owned, logical play at the always crucial 1B position.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Jake Thompson David Peralta Scratched, Brandon Drury In
Peralta has been scratched and Brandon Drury is in today. He will replace him in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Brandon Drury
As if DFS players needed another reason to look at Coors, Andrew Cashner has a hard contact percentage of 43% over the last month
Over the last 30 days, Andrew Cashner has allowed a hard contact percentage of 43%. This amount of solid contact is sure to do him harm when he is surrendering a fly ball percentage of 41% to LHBs. The fact that he is pitching in Colorado tonight means that any DFS players who intend to fade Rockies left-handed batters will be counting on variance alone to help limit the Rockies production. The usual suspects are in play, beginning with Carlos Gonzalez, but do not overlook rookie David Dahl. Dahl, in limited at bats, has a wRC+ of 145 against RHP.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Carlos Gonzalez Aaron Sanchez only needs to avoid a few Royals left-handed bats to have a solid outing
Aaron Sanchez has done a incredible job of inducing optimal contact against RHBs, boasting an impressive 66% ground ball percentage. Of the LHBs for the opposing team, Kendrys Morales has the largest ISO on the Royals against RHP, sitting at a modest 0.168. If Sanchez can avoid LHBs like Morales and Alex Gordon tonight, he is in a prime position to have a solid outing.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales Carlos Martinez faces a Braves team with a dearth of power threats
The Braves have been a team to target with pitchers for much of the season, and still possess the worst team wRC+ versus right-handed pitching at 78. Some of the lefties of note who have wRC+ totals over 100 for the Braves are Jace Peterson, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis. Of these lefties, Freddie Freeman is the only player striking out more than 20% of the time in the last week (he is whiffing 40% of the time in the last 7 days). It is a positive sign for Carlos Martinez that the Braves’s biggest slugger, Freeman, is scuffling right now, but less encouraging that the lesser lefties are making solid contact. C-Mart appears to be high floor option tonight, who may only be hampered by the possibility that the Braves are able to limit C-Mart’s strike out total.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Matt Joyce will bat cleanup and face Homer Bailey
The last time Homer Bailey played a significant number of innings was in 2014. Bailey finished the year with numbers some DFS players would consider an abberation, giving up a 1.14 HR/9 to RHBs on only 24% fly balls. A general rule is that pitchers tend to finish with a HR/FB ratio around 10%, but Bailey ended the year with a HR/FB of 20%. Considering Bailey’s hard contact % to right-handed bats in 2014 was 34%, it leaves us to wonder if regression towards a lower HR/9 allowed to RHBs is in store for his career moving forward. This seems likely considering his HR/FB allowed to RHBs was 9% in 2013, 13% in 2012, and 8% in 2013. It may be wise to stick to left-handed sticks today for the Pirates, beginning with Matt Joyce (159 wRC+ versus RHB).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Homer Bailey Contrary to popular belief, Manny Machado has been plenty productive against LHP
It is a commonly spread notion that Manny Machado is better against RHP this year, and it is true that Machado’s ISO is larger against RHP, 0.243 compared to 0.210 versus LHP. Still, Machado’s 146 wRC+ total versus LHP is greater than his 134 wRC+ against RHP, indicating he has found a way to be more productive against LHP, albiet with a little less power. Look for Machado to take advantage of his matchup today versus Carlos Rodon, a pitcher with an xFIP of 4.53 against RHBs. Rodon has a respectable strike out rate versus RHBs of 20% this year, and has a k rate of 25% over his last couple of starts. Still, Machado has a great chance to win out today, seeing that he only strikes out 13% of the time against LHPs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Rodon Evan Longoria has the power to take advantage of Jose Berrios's fly ball tendencies
Jose Berrios had a bounce back outing in his last start against the Indians, giving up just 3 runs. A key to his success was 5 strikeouts, no walks, and no homers allowed, although he did allow 12 fly balls. Berrios on the season has shown to have more difficulty with right-handed batters, striking out RHBs 22% of the time, compared to his more impressive 28% k-rate against LHBs. When the ball is put in play, the righties are putting it where DFS players want it, in the air. Berrios is allowing a fly ball percentage of 52% versus RHBs, which hurts him more in smaller parks, but may be less problematic at Tropicana field today (left-field is a rating of 0.86 on the RotoGrinders park factors tool for HR). Evan Longoria is one of the Rays who has demonstrated the power to hit it out at cavernous Tropicana field, possessing an ISO of 0.246 versus RHBs this year.
As reported by: ESPN and FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Berrios Roughned Odor is a fantastic high floor/high upside option a 2B today
Doug Fister is giving up a 40% fly ball percentage over the last month, driven largely by his season long fly ball percentage of 41% allowed to lefties. Rougned Odor will bat 5th for the Rangers, and offers a respectable 20% k rate against RHPs, providing a decent floor for a batter with a 0.224 ISO versus RHP. Much of Odor’s power is to right-field and Minute Maid Park is an above average park for left-handed power (1.21 rating for HR to right field on the RotoGrinders Park Factors tool).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Starting Lineups and FanGraphs Other tagged players: Doug Fister