DFS Alerts
Mookie Betts worth a look today, even versus a right-handed pitcher
In a little over 50 innings pitched, Ross Stripling has shown that he will not be dominate versus RHBs, whiffing righties only 16% of the time. This lack of strike outs hurts Stripling even more, considering the type of batted balls he is surrendering when RHBs do make contact, allowing a hard contact percentage of 37%. Meanwhile, Stripling limits LHBs to fly ball percentage of 20%, inducing ground balls 60% of the time that LHBs put the ball in play. This points to success today for the Red Sox lead off hitter, Mookie Betts. Betts has a wRC+ of 138 on the season versus RHBs with an ISO of 0.233. His strike out percentage of 13% provides him with a high floor, and his lead off position in the batting order should almost guarantee him an extra at bat or two on the road.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ross Stripling
Kris Bryant looks to take advantage of Sonny Gray's struggles against RHBs
Sonny Gray has been unable to strike out right handed batters, whiffing RHBs only 17% of the time this year. When righties have made contact the other 83% of the time, the contact has all too often been hard contact, considering Gray’s hard contact percentage of 40% to right-handed batters. Kris Bryant has a wRC+ of 135 versus RHPs, and Bryant’s 0.231 ISO is well above average. Bryant has shown the ability to strike out versus righties, striking out 25% of the time, but Sonny Gray’s inability to put right-handed batters away at a high clip should help promote hard contact for Bryant today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Sonny Gray CC Sabathis has been able to mitigate damage allowed to LHBs, but Cleveland will send 8 RHBs to the plate today
Over the last month, CC Sabathia is part of the special fraternity of pitchers that includes pitchers like Jordan Zimmerman (one start), the recently traded Lucas Harrell, Daniel Mengden and Steven Brault. What the heck do they have in common? They are all pitchers with SIERAs over 5.00 in the last 30 days, who are giving up less than 25% hard contact. Pitchers like these are always worth a deeper look, to see if much of the soft contact is being surrendered to one side of the plate. For Sabathia, his splits are traditional, seeing that his hard contact rate to left-handed batters has been a respectable 20%. However, the Indians will be sending 8 RHBs to the plate today, meaning Sabathia’s K% of 16%, xFIP of 4.31, fly ball percentage of 32%, and hard contact allowed of 31% will be in affect for 8 of the 9 batters in the Indians lineup. Of the many RHBs to choose from, begin with Mike Napoli and Jose Ramirez, players who are sporting wRC+ totals versu LHPs of 140 and 131, respectively.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, CC Sabathia The Kevin Roth Weather Report highlights a day full of good weather for baseball
The weather looks good for baseball today according to the Roth weather report. No game has received a rating worse than Yellow/Orange and Kevin attributes this Yellow/Orange rating to the typical weather patterns seen in Colorado.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Brewers offense in a great spot versus Braden Shipley
Shipley will only be making the third start of his big league career tonight as he takes on the Brewers at home in hitter-friendly Chase Field. We obviously have a very limited sample size to properly judge Shipley but it hasn’t been good to this point. Shipley has done a decent job keeping the ball on the ground (51.4% GB%), however, most of his struggles stem from a high walk rate (10.2%) and astronomical hard contact rate (47.2%). This puts the Brewers offense firmly in play as an under the radar option. Ryan Braun (130 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP) is far and away the top option in play for this young Milwaukee lineup. The other best options to consider for stacks are Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+, .340 wOBA vs RHP) and Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.198 ISO vs RHP). Chris Carter (.230 ISO vs RHP) is always in play in plus matchups given his multiple home run upside on any given night.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Chris Carter, Braden Shipley
Phillies have some inexpensive lefty mashers against a pitcher who has allowed .358 wOBA to RHBs since 2015
The Phillies are stacking up eight RHBs against Christian Friedrich in San Diego because they have a .358 wOBA against him since last season. Petco is a pitcher’s park, but the most expensive Philadelphia bat costs just $4.1K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel. For players paying up for Coors and/or pitching, there are some great low cost pivots in this game, including Tommy Joseph (155 wRC+, .273 ISO vs LHP) for $2.4K on FanDuel, who might be one of the top values on the slate and Cameron Rupp (154 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who is the highest priced player in the lineup ($4.1K on DK, $3K on FD). Aaron Altherr (108 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP since 2015) bats ahead of them for less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Cameron Rupp, Aaron Altherr, Christian Friedrich
RHBs have a .437 wOBA (41.1 Hard%) vs Lincecum since 2015
Tim Lincecum has been tattooed for 10 HRs in eight starts and though RHBs have hit him much better since last season (.437 wOBA, 41.1 Hard%), LHBs have been catching up with four HRs and a .386 wOBA this season. Though still a negative run environment, the Mariners have a 17.5 HR/FB at home this season. Seattle is sticking to their normal lineup against RHP despite what the numbers say, making Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the top play at a reasonable cost too (around $4K) against the righty. Mike Zunino may be a decent punt Catcher in this spot. Though he bats eight, he has a 198 wRC+ and .440 ISO vs RHP in a very small sample this year and costs less than $3K on either site. LH Mariner bats still project well, though are not as much of a bargain at a higher cost for Cano and Seager.
Other tagged players: Mike Zunino, Tim Lincecum, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager Batters from both sides have a wOBA above .490 with 9 HRs in four starts
Dillon Overton has a 10.3 SwStr%, but has a 38.2 Hard% with just a 9.2 Soft% and 55.3% fly ball rate. He has just two more strikeouts (11) than HRs allowed (9). It’s not the most hitter friendly park, but Chicago batters could punish him tonight. Batters from both sides have a wOBA above .490 against him. The issue is mostly in cost, with the top four all at least $4K on FD and $4.3K on DK, but they all have a wRC+ just above 140 vs LHP since last season. Rizzo and Bryant add an ISO above .200. Javier Baez (168 wRC+, .206 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs just $2.7K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Dillon Overton Lester is only allowing a 26.8% Hard% to RHB this season, Athletics are rolling out eight righties tonight
Lester (3.75 SIERA) has had some hiccups recently, which is something we really aren’t used to seeing from the ace left-hander, but he gets a great park adjusted matchup on the road against a weak Oakland offense. His walk rate (7.4%) has come up a bit this season, but other than that, there isn’t much in his pitching profile to indicate a decline of any sort. Lester has still posted a 24.2% strikeout rate that is accompanied by his traditionally low hard hit rate (27.4%). The one downside is that there is not a ton of strikeout upside in this Oakland lineup for Lester, but the ballpark is a nice boost which should help with run prevention. Lester is a nice cash game option on this slate, especially on sites that heavily weigh the win, but he may lack the upside needed in tournaments given his price tag.
As reported by: FanGraphs Rockies projected for 5.4 runs in what looks to be a bullpen game for Miami with Phelps starting
David Phelps is a failed starter who has pitched extremely well out of the bullpen, but don’t expect his 31.5 K% to transition to the rotation and 2.2 innings in his last appearance was the first time he’d gone multiple innings since the first week of the season. This will likely be a bullpen game and the Rockies are projected for the second highest run total tonight (5.4 runs). Carlos Gonzalez (145 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is back in the lineup and the top bat in a strong lineup, while David Dahl (168 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP) has been tearing the cover off the ball. They may only get two opportunities against the starter and face platoon adjustments the rest of the way, but players are probably not going wrong by squeezing high priced Colorado bats into their lineups, especially at the top or middle of the order.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: David Dahl, David Phelps Kevin's weather post has been updated; Colorado still holds plenty of risk
The night’s most appealing game from an offensive standpoint is the one with the biggest weather risk. Follow the link below for a full weather breakdown for tonight’s slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Jaime Garcia has just 12 Ks last four starts, but Braves have a 77 wRC+ on the road and vs LHP
Jaime Garcia has struck out a total of 12 batters over his last four starts and has completed six innings with a ground ball rate above 50% in just one of his last five. He allowed six runs to the Marlins in his last start with his lowest velocity of the season, averaging just 89 mph on his fastball. There is some concern here, but not enough yet to wipe him off the board against the Braves, who have a 77 wRC+ both on the road and vs LHP. Matt Kemp may make them a little more formidable, but Garcia has always pitched a bit better at home (14.2 K-BB% since 2015). There are no Atlanta bats of interest projected for a slate low 3.3 runs against a pitcher who generally keeps the ball on the ground in a pitcher’s park.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Devon Travis (133 wRC+ vs RHP) leads off for a Toronto lineup projected for 4.9 runs
The Blue Jays project well against Dillon Gee in Kansas City (4.9 runs). RHBs have a .341 wOBA against him since last season, but just a 28.1 Hard% and the power may not play up as much in this big park. They should still score some runs, but Devon Travis (133 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP career) appears to be the only real bargain here out of the leadoff spot for $2.7K on FanDuel. The rest of the top six are all above $4.5K on DraftKings or $3.4K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Dillon Gee Marlins implied run total has increased to 5.6 runs, giving them the highest projection on the slate
Jorge de la Rosa (4.75 SIERA) is not a great pitcher with even less impressive control (10.1% BB%). It could just be an anomaly but de la Rosa has actually pitched better at Coors Field this season (50.5% GB%, 25.2% Hard%) than on the road. Given the overall pitching profile of de la Rosa, we should just chalk it up to small sample size and variance because he does not have the kind of stuff that typically plays well at Coors. The only positive thing to say about De La Rosa is that he gets above average ground balls (48.0%), but not at an elite enough level to cause a problem for guys like Giancarlo Stanton (150 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .316 ISO vs LHP) or Marcell Ozuna (191 wRC+, .458 wOBA, .363 ISO vs LHP). Martin Prado (196 wRC+, .466 wOBA) doesn’t have a ton of power upside but has absolutely raked against left-handed pitching this season making him a nice filler in Miami stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Prado, Jorge De La Rosa White Sox bats are cheap and projected for 4.8 runs against Gallardo
Batters from either side have a wOBA above .340 against Yovani Gallardo with LHBs up to .390 with a 33.3 Hard% which is the same as his GB% against them. Justin Morneau (117 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP this season) is a cheap First Base option with a 171 wRC+ and 47.6 Hard% over the last week for a team projected for 4.8 runs tonight. There are few above average bats in this lineup and only Todd Frazier also has an ISO above .200 vs RHP this year, but they are affordable with only Adam Eaton (107 wRC+ vs RHP this season) above $4K on DraftKings with he and Frazier the only bats above $3K on FanDuel. This is a lineup that can be picked apart for salary relief in a good spot tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, Yovani Gallardo