DFS Alerts
Collin McHugh ($6K on DK) tied a season high with 10 Ks in last start, faces red hot Twins (162 wRC+)
Collin McHugh allowed three solo HRs, but struck out 10 Blue Jays a start after lasting just 15 batters in Detroit. He’s now tied his season high of 10 Ks in two of his last four starts, while a 16.2 K-BB% is halfway between last season and his breakout 2014. With a hard hit rate just below 30%, this should be a decent pitcher if not for the insolvably high BABIP (.360 despite an 18.7 LD% and 11.3 IFFB%). The Twins are an average offense (98 wRC+ vs RHP), but still the hottest one on the board with a 162 wRC+ over the last week, which includes a 19.4 HR/FB. McHugh can be a useful arm for $8K on DraftKings as a marginal favorite, but is very easy to plug into one of two DraftKings slots for just $6K with a 3.48 SIERA over the last month. RHBs have hit him a bit better than lefties since last season (.337 wOBA) and Miguel Sano (131 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP career) has handled talk of a demotion with a 237 wRC+ and 46.7 Hard% over the last week. He costs less than $4K on either site tonight. Max Kepler (150 wRC+, .329 ISO vs RHP since 2015) carries an identical $3.3K price tag on FanDuel with Joe Mauer (108 wRC+, .123 ISO vs RHP since 2015) $100 less. All three of the above mentioned have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week, but other competent Minnesota bats appear quite a bit more expensive.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Joe Mauer
Scooter Gennett in the cleanup spot, Orlando Arcia bats 2nd in Rob Whalen's 2nd major league start
Rob Whalen is a 22 year-old former 12th round draft pick, who was not a highly regarded prospect, but is one of a few Braves acquisitions from the Mets in the last year who has taken steps forward in the high minors this season with a strikeout rate above 22% at both AA and AAA. He struck out five of 25 Pirates in his first start, but also walked four with just two ground balls and a 28.6 Hard-Soft%. The Brewers have an enormous strikeout rate (above 25% at home and vs RHP), but may be even more likely to take advantage of his control issues (9.4 BB% vs RHP). The two most potent bats in a lineup projected to score five runs are the two highest priced in Jonathan Villar (115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 43 SBs this season) for his speed and Ryan Braun (125 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for his power. Both, along with Keon Broxton (48 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP) have a wRC+ above 200 with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Pierzynski is an arm that Villar should be able to run on. Orlando Arcia had a disappointing 90 wRC+ at AAA this season, but did steal 15 bases and bats second for just $2.1K on FanDuel tonight. Scooter Gennett (88 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has no power and a moderate price tag on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Keon Broxton, Orlando Arcia, Robert Whalen, Scooter Gennett Jake Odorizzi is a true reverse split RHP, takes on lineup full of Toronto RH power bats
Odorizzi owns a below-average 15.9% strikeout rate to right-handed batters on the road this season. The Blue Jays right-handed batters find themselves in a decent spot tonight against the reverse splits of Odorizzi. He allows only slightly above-average hard contact to righties (31.7%) but surrenders a high number of fly balls (43.9%) that will not play as well in the Rogers Centre as it does in his home ballpark. Given how well Odorizzi has pitched of late, it may not be viable to load up on a full Toronto stack just in case that success continues, but home run hunting with a few Blue Jays hitters could be the route to take. Josh Donaldson (159 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .287 ISO vs RHP), Devon Travis (148 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .236 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (132 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .265 ISO vs RHP), Jose Bautista (.225 ISO vs RHP), and Troy Tulowitzki (.221 ISO vs RHP) would be our best options to consider in thiss matchup.
Other tagged players: Devon Travis, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Jake Odorizzi
Michael Wacha has a 3.56 FIP at home since last season in a strong spot against the Reds
Michael Wacha has established himself as an average middle of the rotation pitcher or perhaps a back end guy on a good team. He has a perfectly average 13.3 career K-BB% and slightly less at 12.1% this year, allowing a hard contact rate just under 30% each of the last two seasons, while showing an ability to suppress HRs a bit in a favorable home park (3.56 Home FIP since 2015). He’s in a great spot tonight against an offense with just one remaining potent LH bat. The Reds have a 14.7 K-BB% and 10.7 HR/FB on the road. While not suggesting to build around Wacha, he’s a perfectly viable plug in here, especially for $6.5K on DraftKings. Considering that Wacha has actually shown a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .322 wOBA since last year, LHBs .284), Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a bit lower on the radar at a high cost in a lineup projected for fewer than four runs. Except for the ice cold Adam Duvall (114 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP since 2015, but a 37 wRC+, 11.1 Hard% last seven days), there’s not another RHB that’s even average against RHP in tonight’s lineup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Adam Duvall Zach Davies has a sub-two ERA over the last month fueled by a .260 BABIP without a HR
Zach Davies has been a competent pitcher for the Brewers, though his sub-two ERA in four post-break starts is fueled by a .260 BABIP without surrendering a single HR, not an easy thing to do in Milwaukee. He’s at home tonight in a strong spot. The Braves have no power (80 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but only strike out at an average rate (19.8% vs RHP) and haven’t been too bad recently (107 wRC+ vs RHP). Say what you want about Matt Kemp (96 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at this stage of his career, but he gives them at least some legitimate RH power in the middle of that lineup. The Braves have a 13.2 HR/FB since his acquisition. If we’re still calling him a league average pitcher in a good spot in an offensively favorable environment, a price tag above $8K seems not much better than adequate here. While many players might jump on an opportunity to oppose the Braves, perhaps this is a spot worth considering a fade. Davies hasn’t shown much of a split with batters from both sides holding a wOBA right around or just below .300 (though RHBs have a 34.5 Hard%). Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Nick Markakis (116 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) are both swinging the bat well at affordable prices on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis Cueto should be the contrarian high-priced pitching option tonight
Cueto is the prototypical “better real-life pitcher than daily fantasy pitcher”, as he only manages a slightly above-average strikeout rate (22.8%), however, he does a great job limiting walks (5.0% BB%) and inducing soft contact (26.4% Hard%). The main problem with Cueto in DFS is that he is often priced so closely to the other ace pitchers (as he is tonight) that it’s nearly impossible to justify using him given his upside in comparison to them. Cueto finds most of his success by going deep enough in games to increase his chances of locking down a win but that will be far less easy to come by tonight as he opposes Jose Fernandez in Marlins Park. The matchup with the Marlins (97 wRC+, .320 wOBA, .136 ISO vs RHP) is fairly neutral overall for Cueto and the Marlins are one of the better teams at making contact versus right-handed pitching (18.7% K%). It’s tough to recommend Cueto in any format, outside of the most contrarian of plays, as it’s difficult to imagine him outscoring Fernandez tonight.
Jose Fernandez (36.4 K%) is tonight's top dog against a SF offense with a 22.9 K% over the last week
As he is on most night’s he takes the mound, Jose Fernandez, the major league leader in strikeout rate (36.4%), is the top dog tonight. While he does have a 29.0 LD% that’s led to a .331 BABIP and occasionally a few runs, he’s allowed more than two earned in just four of his last 15 starts and rarely exits without at least seven or eight strikeouts. The Giants may pose more of a threat than usual to his enormous strikeout rate (17.2 K% vs RHP), but even if they drop him five to 10 points, it’s still an exceptional rate and they have struck out 22.9% of the time over the last week. With a high floor and incredible ceiling that no other pitcher on the slate can match, this is a pitcher players should look to build around tonight. The Giants have a slate low projection of just 2.9 runs with only one other team within half a run. One contrarian consideration on the other side might be Brandon Belt (140 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He costs just $3.4K or less out of the third spot with a 192 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% over the last week. LHBs have a .319 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Fernandez since last season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Belt Evan Longoria has seven career extra base hits against R.A. Dickey
It’s perhaps unfair to attack knuckleballers with traditional splits. R.A. Dickey (17.2 K%, 4.49 ERA, 4.72 SIERA) had very little separation between left and right-handed batters since last season (RHBs .326 wOBA, LHBs .313). In fact, LHBs have a very low 24 Hard% against him since last season with 23 of his 51 HRs allowed. This may be one spot where substantial BvP numbers tell us a better story than normal. Evan Longoria has two HRs, but seven extra-base hits in 56 career PAs, while no other batters has more than one HR or two extra base hits, though Kiermaier and Forsythe each have nearly 30 PAs against Dickey. Longoria does have a 131 wRC+ and .259 ISO vs RHP this year, if that matters, and costs less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: R.A. Dickey, Kevin Kiermaier, Logan Forsythe Matt Shoemaker is trending in the wrong direction while Kyle Seager is slowly heating up
Matt Shoemaker started out the season on fire, posting a, xFIP of 2.90 and 3.15 in May and June, respectively. However, he saw his xFIP for July climb to 4.27 and his only August outing has his xFIP this month sitting at a healthy 6.08. Shoemaker has middle of the road batted ball statistics, holding a 39% FB percentage versus LHBs and allowing a 33% hard hit percentage. If Shoemaker continues to trend in the wrong direction, Kyle Seager will be waiting to take advantage of the opportunity. Seager boasts a fantastic 167 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers and has a ridiculous ISO of 0.268. The afternoon games include names like Jake Lamb and Nolan Arenado, so Seager should be a lower owned play at the hot corner in a great situation in his own right.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Shoemaker
Yunel Escobar scratched
Analysis coming soon.
The statistics say to use a pitcher at...Coors Field?
The Jon Gray train is gaining steam and DFS players are noticing his ability to succeed at home. Jon Gray’s xFIP on the road is 4.18, which is nothing to write home about, but his xFIP at Coors Field is an impressive 2.99. Gray’s k rate also gets a bump, improving from 24% away from Coors to 28% in the friendly confines of Coors Field. Today’s slate seems to be rich with pitching options, so DFS players may not need Gray, but he still acts as a viable option for any GPP players looking to use a middle-tier pitcher with upside.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jimmy Nelson is pitching, so DFS players do not need research to know LHBs are in play
Jimmy Nelson has the requisite fly ball percentage versus LHBs to get into trouble (35%), but lacks the elite k rate to get out of trouble (15%). A 35% fly ball percentage is not extremely egregious, but Nelson’s 38% hard contact contributes to the resulting 1.29 HR/9 that Nelson is surrendering. Jake Lamb has a FB% of 35% versus RHP, and Lamb boasts a elite 45% hard contact rate. Nelson’s inability to strike lefties out should help to mitigate Lamb’s 25% strike out rate versus RHP, making lamb an elite play at the hot corner today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jimmy Nelson Joe Maddon could play DFS: Sean Manaea has drastic splits, struggling mightily versus RHBs
The Cubs manager Joe Maddon is known for being cognizant of the sabermetrics available, which is probably why the Cubs have a single lefty swinging batter in the lineup who just happens to be Anthony Rizzo (only a 132 wRC+ versus LHP). Stack the Cubs today knowing that 8 of the 9 Cubs in the lineup have wRC+ totals over 97 against LHP. If Sean Manaea last for more than 5 innings and our Cubs stacks let us down, at least we know Joe Maddon is paying attention.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Sean Manaea 2 reasons to play Marcus Stroman today
First off, Marcus Stroman faced the Royals a month ago and went 8 innings, giving up only 2 runs and striking out 6 batters. Stroman does not have large home/road splits, but does get a subtle bump to his K rate, striking out 21% of hitters on the road, compared to 19% at home. Secondly, Stroman’s 1.74 xFIP over the last few weeks is elite and good for 3rd best in the MLB over that time period. With so many good options on the board today, Marcus Stroman is a extremely reasonable play that should go low owned.
As reported by: ESPN and FanGraphs 3 reasons to play Yu Darvish
Firstly, the Astros have a team wRC+ total of 40 over the last week. Secondly, there are Astros in the lineup today with k% against RHP of 37%, 36%, 30%, 29%, and 25%. Thirdly, Yu Darvish has elite strikeout ability and has a K-rate of 33% over his last few outings. Yes, Darvish could get cute and give up a home run on a 67 mph pitch, but the possibility of 10 ks is equally as likely.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press