DFS Alerts
Pirates @ Braves delayed by rain
The start of the Pirates Braves is going to be delayed by rain. If you've been following Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx), he’s still not recommnending a fade for hitters here as of a half hour ago.
Pomeranz owns a 20.7% K-BB% versus RHB, Mariners only rolling out three lefties tonight
Pomeranz easily has the top advanced stats of any pitcher on the slate but isn’t gifted with the greatest of matchups. The Mariners are a much weaker offense against left-handed pitching, however, and the massive 29.6% strikeout rate Pomeranz has against right-handed batters should do nothing but help limit the concerns we have with the righty power hitters in the Seattle lineup. Pomeranz should draw some of the higher ownership on tonight’s slate at pitcher but there really aren’t any other viable options that posses his kind of strikeout upside. There’s a few other spots we can consider pivoting to at pitcher but should feel comfortable taking on that ownership as Pomeranz could easily be the highest scoring pitcher tonight (and it may not be close). There’s better spots to target than the Mariners righties but home run hunting with Nelson Cruz (172 wRC+, .420 wOBA, .352 ISO vs LHP) or Franklin Gutierrez (142 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .234 ISO vs LHP) could certainly pay off if they’re able to put one in the seats against Pomeranz.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez
Pedroia bats cleanup, Bradley fifth with Ramirez OUT against rookie Miranda
Ariel Miranda came over from the Orioles for Miley. He had league average numbers in 19 AAA starts this year. The 27 year-old threw two innings for Baltimore this year. He’s a signing out of Cuba a couple of years back with better off-speed stuff than breaking, allowing him to be better against RHBs than LHBs. His upside may be….Wade Miley. Jackie Bradley Jr. (127 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since 2015) looks like an interesting bat if he truly is going to be a reverse platoon guy, but there’s still too much limited information to determine that. With the struggling Red Sox (62 wRC+ last seven days) revamping the lineup with Hanley Ramirez out and only projected for 4.5 runs at Safeco (still a negative run environment), perhaps the smart play is fading the high priced bats. Only Mookie Betts (114 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has a wRC+ above 100 over the last week (158). No batter has a hard hit rate above 38%.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Ariel Miranda, Mookie Betts Kevin's late forecast has two spots with some concern (Atlanta & Colorado)
Both Pittsburgh Atlanta and LA Colorado are graded YELLOW/ORANGE tonight. While that appears to be the norm for Colorado without too much of an impact over the last few weeks, on a tough slate with Carlos Gonzalez out, it was possible that some players were looking towards Kenta Maeda tonight and this kind of forecast tends to be a bit riskier or pitchers. Thankfully, that shouldn’t be much of a consideration in Atlanta tonight. Read Kevin’s full forecast for all of the information on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further important updates.
Happ is the top pitcher on tonight's slate. What a time to be alive...
There’s not a whole lot to love in the season long metrics of J.A. Happ, but welcome to the dumpster fire of tonight’s slate where Happ is the top pitching option on the board. Happ has one of the best pitcher game logs in baseball lately, but the numbers don’t really back that up those results. He has increased his swinging strike rate during this eight game stretch to 11.4% (up from 8.7% in his last 13 starts), although four strong strikeout performances are really buoying that percentage. Happ strikes out righties at a clip slightly slightly above-average (22.2%), while inducing ground balls at a below average rate (42.8% GB%) and surrendering a substantial amount of hard contact (31.1%). We typically wouldn’t go out of our way to pick on Happ on a normal night but it could be an interesting leverage play to load up on Astros righties given the projected ownership of Happ. Jose Altuve (189 wRC+, .451 wOBA, .253 ISO vs LHP), George Springer (155 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .286 ISO vs LHP)), and Evan Gattis (.291 ISO vs LHP) are the hitters we want to consider as a mini-stack or one-offs in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Evan Gattis Jaso OUT, Frazier leads off for low cost Pirates lineup facing a pitcher who can't find the plate
Tyerell Jenkins has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in any of his four starts this season. Batters from both sides have a wOBA better than .370 against him, though only RHBs have hit him particularly hard (37.1%). That works out well for the Pirates with six of them in the lineup tonight (not counting the pitcher), though none of them have been hitting the ball particularly well. Only Starling Marte (140 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP this season) has a wRC+ above 27 among those with more than 10 PAs over the last week. He’s sporting a 182 wRC+ and 46.2 Hard% over the last week as the top bat in this lineup if you can afford him ($5.3K on DK). Matt Joyce (168 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP this season) is just $2.4K on FanDuel. Adam Frazier (129 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP) has strong numbers in a small sample. He’s the other LHB, but has been struggling. Jung-Ho Kang (128 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP career) is probably the best combination of price, power, and matchup here.
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Tyrell Jenkins, Jung-Ho Kang Saunders OUT, Tulo returns as Jays lineup up eight RH bats against reverse platoon righty
Mike Fiers has a pronounced reverse platoon split. RHBs have a .337 wOBA and 36.1 Hard% against him with 24 of his 41 HRs since last season, due to his Changeup being his most productive pitch. Toronto has smartly lined up eight RHBs against him, many of whom thump same handed pitching, including each of the top four, who have at least a 130 wRC+ against RHP since last season. Yes, that includes leadoff man Devon Travis, who costs just $2.8K on FanDuel, although he doesn’t have the power of the other three. He does have a .211 ISO vs RHP this year. In fact, Martin, Upton, and Pillar are the only three bats tonight with an ISO below .211 vs RHP this year. Jose Bautista (142 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $4.2K on DraftKings and is pretty close to a must play in such a strong spot. Edwin Encarnacion (146 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs $4.5K on either site, while Donaldson (153 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is most expensive.
Other tagged players: Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Melvin Upton, Kevin Pillar, Mike Fiers Carlos Gonzalez remains out of the lineup tonight, only adding to the viability of Maeda in tournaments
Maeda has been fantastic against right-handed batters, with a 28.5% strikeout rate and only a 25.3% hard contact rate. It would not be shocking if Maeda posted a solid outing in this spot. He really becomes an intriguing tournament option on sites where he is cheap given the public’s propensity to ever roster pitchers at Coors Field. If looking to attack the opposite side of this matchup, the Rockies left-handed hitters are the bats we want to target, as Maeda only has average strikeout numbers to left-handed batters (20.6% K%), accompanied by a below-average ground ball rate (41.2%) and high 34.7% hard contact rate. However, the Colorado offense took a big hit with Carlos Gonzalez remaining absent from the lineup with an ankle injury he suffered late in last night’s game. The bats to primarily consider in this game would be Charlie Blackmon (110 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .179 ISO vs RHP), David Dahl, and Daniel Descalso (121 wRC+, .379 wOBA vs RHP). Nolan Arenado (118 wRC+, .376 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP) is also always worth a tournament flier in Coors regardless of matchup.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Daniel Descalso, Nolan Arenado Kendrick and Pederson flip flopped
The Dodgers have made a minor lineup shuffle. Howie Kendrick (now batting seventh) has flip flopped spots with Joc Pederson (now batting eight). Tyler Chatwood does have a pronounced reverse split this year (RHBs .325 wOBA), but Pederson has the top ISO vs RHP (.257) in today’s lineup.
As reported by: Dodgers Other tagged players: Joc Pederson Both Tyler Chatwood (RHBs .325 wOBA) and Justin Turner (148 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP) have large reverse splits
The Dodgers have the top run projection tonight (5.8) by half a run. While nobody should consider using Chatwood in most parks due to a 15.1 K%, there’s an interesting dynamic here as the Dodgers line up with six LHBs, but he actually has a fairly pronounced reverse split with a ground ball rate above 55% against batters from either side. RHBs have at least hit the ball hard 31.5% of the time with 13.6 HR/FB. He has allowed six of his eight HRs this year to RHBs at home. This makes Justin Turner, who has a reverse platoon split as well (148 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015), tonight’s one must have bat from this lineup even if you want to fade the rest of this game and pay up for pitching. RHBs have a .325 wOBA against Chatwood, compared to a .283 wOBA for LHBs. The Dodgers have several LHBs so strong against RHP that they have to be considered in this environment and that includes tonight’s top SS, Corey Seager (157 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP career). Both he and the surging Joc Pederson (125 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. In fact, Pederson has the highest ISO in the lineup vs RHP just this season (.257). Adrian Gonzalez (27.3 Hard%) is the only batter in the lineup with a hard hit rate below 43% over the last week. Pile up the Dodger RHBs if affordable, but Turner is likely the real gem in this spot.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Tyler Chatwood, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Adrian Gonzalez Mark Teixeira out of the lineup for the Yankees, Chase Headley gets the bump up to the three-hole
Bartolo Colon has been absolutely horrendous against left-handed batters this season, with a low strikeout rate of 15.5%, that is accompanied by a minimal 35.4% ground ball rate, an above-average line drive rate (22.8%), and an astronomical 43.0% hard contact rate allowed. At this point in his career, Colon can only hope to luck into pitching solid outings which is backed up by his terrible advanced stats. DFS players even tend to avoid attacking Colon because he puts together solid starts often enough for us to feel uncomfortable exploiting that matchup, but in truth, Colon presents one of the most ideal matchups to left-handed batters in baseball. Of course with Carlos Beltran gone and Mark Teixeira out of the lineup, there isn’t much to love in terms of power bats in the Yankees order. Brian McCann (.189 ISO vs RHP) is the top option here and will likely be relatively popular, to put it lightly. Chase Headley (.158 ISO vs RHP) would be the best secondary option given his bump up in the order. We can also always consider Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner as a part of a stack.
Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Bartolo Colon Eovaldi has a new Cutter (weak contact, less Ks), but LHBs have a .391 wOBA against him at home
Nathan Eovaldi has shown off a brand new Cutter since returning to the rotation a few weeks ago. It’s given him the same 50% ground ball rate, but a reduction in hard contact (25.9% last three starts). That, however, has come at the cost of strikeouts (6.9 K-BB% last three starts). The Mets lose Cespedes, but that may actually hurt Eovaldi today as they lineup up seven LHBs, whom have a .391 wOBA against him at home this year. Neil Walker (111 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been on fire (247 wRC+, 41.4 Hard% last seven days) and may be the value play at Second Base today at $3.7K or less on either site. Curtis Granderson (138 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hit a popup HR last night and has two in eight PAs against Eovaldi in his career. Michael Conforto (130 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP career) is very cheap today and Alejandro DeAza (103 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 195 wRC+, 54.6 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Alejandro De Aza, Michael Conforto, Nathan Eovaldi Every Atlanta batter in tonight's lineup has a 110 or better wRC+ over the last week
The Braves have the worst offense vs RHP in the majors (79 wRC+) and second worst at home (80 wRC+) more due to an absence of power than a high strikeout rate. Oddly, their 127 wRC+ over the last week is the lowest on the board with just a 16.4 K%. That may be enough to move us off Ryan Vogelsong who hasn’t pitched in the majors since May due to a neck injury and was mostly out of the bullpen for the first two months (two starts) with an awful 6.4 K-BB%. He’s controlled RHBs since last season (.298 wOBA, 29.6 Hard%), but LHBs have hammered him (.392 wOBA, 34.7 Hard%). Players who are paying up for the top pitchers on an ugly slate, might consider a few Atlanta bats today, all of whom have a wRC+ above 110 over the last week. Leadoff man Jace Peterson (120 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is the bargain on DraftKings ($3.7K), while Nick Markakis (115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 217 wRC+ & 44.4 Hard% last seven days) claims the same on FanDuel ($2.9K). Freddie Freeman (136 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is obviously the top overall bat, but a bit more costly on either site.
Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Jace Peterson, Ryan Vogelsong Ricky Nolasco set to make Angels debut, Athletics RH power bats in a decent spot
Nolasco is one of those frustrating pitchers that we can never really feel comfortable stacking against nor feel comfortable rostering. What Nolasco brings to the table is less than inspiring, below-average ground ball stuff (42.3%), and a relatively high hard contact rate (34.8%). The other issue with this matchup is that Oakland doesn’t exactly have the hitters to take advantage of Nolasco other than Khris Davis (119 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP). There secondaary options in the Athletics lineup that “may” have some upside would be Ryon Healy (124 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .239 ISO vs RHP), Stephen Vogt (.160 ISO vs RHP), and Coco Crisp (.201 ISO vs RHP). This isn’t a matchup we should aggressively target on either side but on an abbreviated slate there is case to be made for both sides with a slight lean to Oakland righties.
Other tagged players: Ryon Healy, Stephen Vogt, Coco Crisp, Ricky Nolasco Pedro Alvarez (.269 ISO vs RHP this season, 272 wRC+ last seven days) could be a pivot from Davis against Griffin
A.J. Griffin has struck out 12 over his last five starts with a .251 BABIP and 77% strand rate allowing him to maintain a 3.99 ERA. He has allowed a HR in each of his last seven starts (eight total) and is in a bad spot in Baltimore tonight. He’s fared very well vs RHBs this season (.253 wOBA), but with a projection of five runs and several RH bats that hit same handed pitching well, players will probably want to keep Jones, Machado, and Trumbo on their play list. Each have a wRC+ of 119 or better with an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season. Chris Davis is the LH power bat here, but with just a 108 wRC+ and .230 ISO vs RHP this season. Though he doesn’t hit for any power, Hyun-Soo Kim (147 wRC+ vs RHP) may be the value play here as he’s $3.6K or less on either site and should be right in the middle of the action batting second. Pedro Alvarez (123 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP this season) is an interesting pivot off Davis here. He costs $800 less on FanDuel and has a 272 wRC+ with a 40 Hard% over the last week compared to Davis’s 17 wRC+ and 8.3 Hard%.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Hyun-Soo Kim, A.J. Griffin