DFS Alerts
RHBs have a .365 wOBA and 34.8 Hard% against Chase Anderson since last season
Chase Anderson has allowed just two HRs over his last six starts and struck out a season high seven in his last start, but despite Arizona’s failings against RHP (86 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB%), they do punish the ball at home when they do make contact (34.9 Hard%, 16.2 HR/FB) and Anderson actually has a pronounced reverse split (RHBs .365 wOBA, 34.8 Hard% against him since last year), which actually hurts him with the Diamondbacks lining up mostly right-handed. While not very cheap for the most part, this is a lineup with some strong looking bats tonight, led by Paul Goldschmidt (144 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Jake Lamb (160 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $2.8K on FanDuel, while Yasmany Tomas (89 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP) has a 182 wRC+ over the last week and costs just $3.1K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Yasmany Tomas, Chase Anderson
Carpenter returns from DL stint tonight, Cardinals quietly have the highest implied run total outside of Coors Field (5.2)
Joel De La Cruz (4.98 SIERA) has struggled in his first three of his major league career posting a microscopic 11.8% strikeout rate while surrendering a 35.7% hard contact rate. De La Cruz has exhibited some slight reverse splits thus far but the sample size is not nearly large enough to merit any consideration from us. With that said, the Cardinals stack is still certainly in play tonight. Matt Carpenter is back and is priced down on some sites which is good for us because Carpenter has been elite against right-handed pitching this season (176 wRC+, .434 wOBA, .301 ISO). Joining Carpenter in the elite matchup tier is Brandon Moss, who has mashed right-handed pitching as well. The supporting cast to consider for rounding out St. Louis stacks would be Jedd Gyorko (135 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .333 ISO vs RHP), Greg Garcia (124 wRC+, .357 wOBA vs RHP), and Matt Holliday (.201 ISO vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Jedd Gyorko, Greg Garcia, Matt Holliday, Joel De La Cruz
Ryan Schimpf remains an affordable middle IF bat with a 149 wRC+ and .346 ISO vs RHP
At first glance, Jeremy Hellickson would look like a solid play in San Diego, but he costs $9.3K on DraftKings and though he’s $2K less on FanDuel, is anything but assured of a Win for the Phillies on the road. While Petco remains a great park, the Padres are now a more balanced lineup, with four LHBs tonight. Lefties have a .342 wOBA against Hellickson last season and Ryan Schimpf (149 wRC+, .346 ISO vs RHP) remains a very affordable middle infield DFS favorite this summer, while Wil Myers (114 wRC+ .199 ISO) and Yangervis Solarte (127 wRC+, .210 ISO) have both been good against RHP this year with a wRC+ just above 170 over the last week. Alex Dickerson (138 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP this season) also costs just $3K. This San Diego offense isn’t a cake walk against RHP anymore and Hellickson has struck out just three of his last 46 batters with a 5.6 SwStr% and a slight drop in velocity.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Alex Dickerson, Jeremy Hellickson White Sox confirmation: Tim Anderson is NOT in the lineup, Tyler Saladino will play SS and bat 2nd
There was some initial confusion as to who would be starting at SS for the White Sox, but it’ll be Tyler Saladino. Tim Anderson is apparently hoping to return to the lineup tomorrow.
Other tagged players: Tim Anderson
RHBs have a .350 wOBA with 12 HRs against Martin Perez this year
Martin Perez has just a 1.6 K-BB% with a 16.4 Hard-Soft%. He does have a 53.8 GB%, but RHBs do have a .350 wOBA with 12 HRs against him this season. That’s all we need to be concerned about tonight because all nine Houston batters hit from the right side tonight. Considering cost, aside from Carlos Gomez costing $4K on DraftKings, there doesn’t appear to be a poor value in this lineup with all except the three All Stars (Altuve, Springer, and Correa) costing $3K or less on FanDuel. While more expensive, Altuve (171 wRC+, .197 ISO since 2015) and Springer (157 wRC+, .256 ISO since 2015) punish LHP. This Houston lineup is a very reasonable, mostly affordable stack that could leave you some room to pay for pitching.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Carlos Gomez The Orioles offense could be a great spot to target in tournaments.
Miguel Gonzalez is one of those starting pitchers that do any one thing particularly well. Gonzalez isn’t a gas can by any means but is definitely a pitcher that can exploited in the right matchups. This could be one of those matchups as the Orioles rank third in wOBA (.339) and second in ISO (.194) versus right-handed pitching giving them all sorts of power upside against Gonzalez. When the Orioles struggle with right-handed pitching, it’s against righties that have great control and strikeout stuff. Gonzalez has neither of those things. A full Orioles stack will be a completely viable option on this slate and a case can be made for nearly the entire lineup. Mark Trumbo (141 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .271 ISO vs RHP) and Manny Machado (132 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .243 ISO vs RHP) are the top options in the Baltimore order given their power upside. Adam Jones (116 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .218 ISO vs RHP) has been heating up over the last week and is always a key part of any Orioles stack batting lead off and needs to be considered.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Miguel Gonzalez Francisco Liriano had his highest strikeout rate (23.6%) and lowest walk rate (10.7%) in July.
Francisco Liriano actually gets a defensive upgrade moving from Pittsburgh (-3.0 UZR/150, .305 BABIP) to Toronto (5.7 UZR/150, .277 BABIP) and doesn’t have to experience the park downgrade right off the bat with a matchup in Kansas City tonight. The Royals have remained competent against LHP, but rarely walk (6.3% vs LHP) or hit for power in a big park (9.8 HR/FB at home). This greatly benefits Liriano with a 13.2 BB% and 19.6 HR/FB this season. He actually had his lowest walk rate (10.7%) and highest strikeout rate (23.6%) in July, while his career HR/FB is more than eight points lower than this season. This is a decent spot for a risky pitcher with upside for less than $8K. If it goes bad, it might go real bad though, so this is also a pitcher you can stack against. The Royals have two very formidable bats against LHP up top in Cain (176 wRC+, .230 ISO this season) and Cuthbert (142 wRC+, .203 ISO this season), both at reasonable or bargain prices (Cuthbert $3K or less on either site). Kendrys Morales costs right around $3K on either site and has a 110 wRC+ with a .212 ISO vs LHP this year.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Cheslor Cuthbert, Kendrys Morales Blake Snell has struck out 29 of last 95 batters, but gone less than six innings in five of nine starts
Blake Snell has struck out 29 of 95 batters over his last four starts, backed up by a 13.4 SwStr% and with just a 26.8 Hard% over this span. You don’t often see that kind of upside for less than $9K. So what are the issues? He has an 11.6% walk rate that has kept him under six innings in five of his nine starts without completing seven innings even once. The Twins have a team 158 wRC+ over the last week (highest in the majors). They have three batters with a wRC+ above 270 over the last week and also three batters with a wRC+ above 160 against LHP this season. Brian Dozier is the only member of both of those groups, adding a .400 ISO vs LHP in 2016. He and Sano (163 wRC+, .271 ISO) have just mashed LHP this season. Snell certainly has the upside to cover $8K and hasn’t shown any platoon split so far (wOBA just below .300 to batters from either side), but there are significant concerns here too.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano Dallas Keuchel had a terrible ending to an otherwise strong July aside from one inning
Dallas Keuchel finished an otherwise strong month by getting thumped in Detroit, but six of the seven runs he allowed came in the first inning capped off by a grand slam. So really, he had one terrible inning in July. He improved on his SwStr last month (11.1%) without it even really showing up in his 20.5 K%, generating ground balls 52% of the time with just 26% hard contact. It actually may work out in the favor of daily fantasy players, keeping his cost reasonably just above $8K on either site in a decent spot. Cleveland has made some improvements, but have just an average 102 wRC+ vs LHP this season. Keuchel has allowed a .341 wOBA with 15 HRs to RHBs this season, though just two of those have come at home with a .287 wOBA for RHBs. Carlos Beltran and Ian Desmond are the only RHBs in the lineup with an ISO above .200 vs LHP this season, both costing above $3.5K on FanDuel and around the $4.5K mark on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Ian Desmond Nationals have a solid implied run total (4.7) in a home matchup versus Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija (4.31 SIERA) has been substantially better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters this season (.358 wOBA, .491 xFIP vs LHB). Samardzija is surrendering 1.57 HR/9 to left-handed batters with a low 15.7% strikeout rate that will really add to the upside of Nationals left-handed bats. Samardzija still shockingly has some name value with a majority of DFS players even though the numbers suggest that he is merely an average to below-average major league starter at this point. That means we should be able to get Nationals lefties at lower ownership than they probably deserve in this spot. Daniel Murphy (177 wRC+, .438 wOBA, .277 ISO vs RHP) is the top overall option here and should be the cog to any Washington stack. Bryce Harper (177 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .297 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hasn’t been doing “Bryce Harper things” of late but always needs to be considered in a matchup against an average RHP. Danny Espinosa (.162 ISO vs RHP) and Clint Robinson (.181 ISO vs RHP) could make for interesting tournament plays since they bat lower in the order. However, they both have some pop and be able to get ahold of one from Samardzija.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, Clint Robinson, Jeff Samardzija Michael Pineda has a 3.68 ERA with a 31.1 K% over his last 11 starts
To use an arbitrary endpoint, Michael Pineda has a 3.68 ERA (estimators still lower) with a 31.1 K% (15.5 SwStr%) and just nine HRs with a .280 BABIP over his last 11 starts with three of the homers coming in one game against Boston. Cleveland is strong against RHP (107 wRC+), but have the largest home/road splits of any team in baseball for some reason (86 wRC+). While not calling this a good spot for Pineda, he easily has enough upside to cover an $8.6K cost on either site with a high strikeout floor in most starts over the last two months. Tyler Naquin (180 wRC+, .360 vs RHP) continues to be the most interesting bat in the lineup, now up a spot to seventh and down below $4K on either site. All of the other decent or better Cleveland bats are a bit costlier.
Other tagged players: Tyler Naquin Justin Verlander costs $3.7K more on DraftKings than FanDuel tonight
Justin Verlander costs an enormous $13.6K cost on DraftKings. He had a great July, but that included a 2.7 HR/FB and.238 BABIP that are unlikely to be sustained. He is a low BABIP generator when he’s right, but it’s still not 2011 anymore and the pricing is much too aggressive here. That said, he did have a 21.3 K-BB% in July and the Mets will strike out a bit (22.3% vs RHP). There is one other thing slightly in his favor here. The Mets are LH through the top seven tonight and he has a slight reverse split since last season (20 points of wOBA) and even the smallest of one (eight points of wOBA) in his career. As a slight favorite (currently -128), he does make a bit more sense on FanDuel for a whopping $3.7K less. Though the Mets offense picked it up a bit this week against the Yankees, there’s no interest in attacking Verlander with any of their bats tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Syndergaard owns a 26.3% K-BB% versus RHB
Syndergaard (2.75 SIERA) is miles ahead of any pitcher on the slate when it comes to season long metrics. Not only does Syndergaard have an elite 30.1% strikeout rate, but he also has great control (5.0% BB%) and induces ground balls on over half of his batted balls in play (50.8%). Syndergaard may also go a little overlooked tonight due to his park adjusted matchup not being the greatest compared to other pitchers on the board. He also hasn’t been the same pitcher since suffering from arm fatigue and bone spurs in his elbow. Syndergaard has still been really good but hasn’t quite pitched that elite level we witnessed earlier in the season. The Tigers are a right-handed heavy lineup that adds to the upside of Syndergaard, but they also have strong numbers against right-handed pitchers (107 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .176 ISO), adding some risk to this matchup as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Josh Tomlin has a 21.7 K% over the last month, but only two pitchers have allowed more HRs this year
Josh Tomlin has increased his strikeout rate to 21.7% over the last month, but his ERA has increased too because only two pitchers have allowed more than his 25 HRs and while the Yankee offense is broken, they can still pop the ball up over that right field wall. The interesting thing is that Tomlin has a pronounced reverse split (LHBs .251 wOBA, RHBs .338 wOBA since last season), though batters from both sides have a hard hit rate a bit above 32%. Strangely, the Yankees don’t have a single batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 107 or ISO above .186 vs RHP this season. Mark Teixeira does have a 192 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% over the last week. The man who just announced his retirement on MLB Network could serve as a bargain First Base play for those paying up for a Coors matchup without a significant First Base play. He costs $3K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Josh Tomlin Jameson Taillon has a 57.7 GB% with a 23.4 K% and NO WALKS over his last four starts
Jameson Taillon is beginning to show why he is such a highly regarded prospect. His strikeout rate is rising (23.4% last four starts), while he hasn’t walked a batter in over a month with a 57.7 GB% over that four start span as well, going six innings in each. He’s also in a great spot at home against a weakened Cincinnati offense. They have an 80 wRC+ with a 10.7 HR/FB on the road this season and now don’t have their cleanup hitter any longer in a park that crucifies RH power. It’s pretty stunning that DraftKings hasn’t been more aggressive on his pricing, but he costs less than $8K on either site and may be the top value on the slate. There are no Cincinnati bats worth considering with Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015), the one legitimate LH bat in the lineup likely on an expensive island tonight with a 3.4 run projection for the offense.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joey Votto