DFS Alerts
Kevin Gausman is allowing 2.50 HR/9 to RHB this season
Gausman has progressed each season he’s been in the big leagues and has really begun to tap into his potential. His peripherals are solid, if not good, across the board with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 11.0% SwStr%, and a 3.81 SIERA. Gausman doesn’t draw the greatest matchup with Texas tonight but could certainly be viable as tournament flier. Gausman has shown some significant reverse splits thus far (.386 wOBA, 6.11 FIP) but still does induce a 50.3% ground ball rate to lefties. This means Rangers right-handed bats that have some pop should be our primary targets if attacking Gausman in this matchup. Ian Desmond (110 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP), Adrian Beltre (.168 ISO vs RHP), and Jonathan Lucroy (130 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .188 ISO vs RHP) are the hitters that best fit the bill in the Rangers lineup tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy, Kevin Gausman
Petco Park may be pitcher friendly, but Edwin Jackson is hitter friendly
Things have gone about how you’d expect for journeyman Edwin Jackson thus far in 2016, as the right-hander owns an ugly 5.46 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 28 innings of work. With a 11.9% strikeout percentage and a 5.96 SIERA, there’s not much of a reason to be optimistic that improvement is on the horizon. While Jonathan Lucroy’s departure did take some of the bite out of this Brewers lineup, the are still several trouble spots that Jackson will likely struggle to navigate around. The usual suspects of Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun and Chris Carter are fine targets, but it’s been Hernan Perez swinging the hottest bat lately. He picked up three more hits last night, now owns a .387 average and 1.057 OPS since the All-Star break, and is hitting .308 against right-handed pitching this season.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar
Padres left-handed bats could be sneaky plays today
While Junior Guerra has been outstanding this season (2.70 ERA) and has what looks to be a great match up against a Padres team that ranks second to last in team wOBA against RHP and strikes out the second most against RHP, there is merit to looking at Padres LH bats in this match up. Guerra has allowed only a .270 wOBA to LH bats this season but that comes attached with a .226 BABIP, 83% LOB rate, and 39.1% hard hit rate – all signs that some regression to that side of the plate is coming. Travis Jankowski leading off and Ryan Schimpf batting second are the top targets for the Padres with Yangervis Solarte (batting fourth) and Alex Dickerson (batting fifth) the other two LH bats in the Padres lineup. Rolling those four out as a contrarian team stack could work. The Padres are rolling out Edwin Jackson who has a good match up against the Brewers but is an easy fade as he has been unimpressive in recent times including allowing .358+ wOBA’s to both sides of the plate in his last full major league season in 2014.
As reported by: San Diego Padres official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Travis Jankowski
Max Scherzer and Nationals bats top targets on Wednesday
While there are other pitchers who have similar projected runs allowed totals to the 3.20 Vegas has given the Nationals opponent the Diamondbacks, none have the upside Max Scherzer has making him the top play of the day at SP (although in GPP’s there’s always merit to fading an obvious choice). The Dbacks are rolling out six RH bats, which is not good when facing Scherzer as he has allowed a .209 wOBA to that side of the plate while putting up a staggering 38.3% K rate. The Nationals bats in the meantime have a very plus match up against Zack Godley who has allowed a .351 wOBA to RH bats and has a 14.2% BB rate against LH bats in his limited major league career. Trea Turner leading off is a great play for a Nationals team projected to score more than five runs and the usual suspects, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, aren’t far behind. Anthony Rendon, Ben Revere, and Danny Espinosa are also worth a look if making a team stack or as cheaper options to get exposure to the game.
As reported by: Jamal Collier on Twitter Other tagged players: Trea Turner Arizona gets unenviable task of facing Max Scherzer
In MLB DFS, it’s all about finding matchups with upside at the right price. When you’re facing Max Scherzer though it’s hard to find much upside although if you did want to stretch you could argue that he has given up 22 home runs this season over slightly more than 140 innings pitched (11 to both LH and RH hitters). That’s about the only glimmer of hope you can have when thinking of targeting Dbacks hitters today and given that Scherzer has limited RH bats to a .209 wOBA with a staggering 38.3% K rate, you’re going to want to avoid bats like Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, and Yasmany Tomas. Scherzer has been slightly more vulnerable to LH bats with a .311 wOBA (.331 on the road) so you could use Jake Lamb (.432 wOBA, .333 ISO vs RHP) or David Peralta (.172 ISO vs RHP) if you want some cheaper contrarian options in your lineups. Zack Godley takes the mound for the Dbacks and is not a viable option.
As reported by: Arizona Diamondbacks official Twitter feed Other tagged players: David Peralta Marlins look to avoid being swept as they square off against John Lackey at the Friendly Confines.
With just two runs scored in the first two games of this series, Miami will once again have their hands full today as John Lackey toes the rubber for the Cubs sporting a solid 3.69 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 21 starts with his new team. Lackey’s 3.75 SIERA and 11.5% SwStr% both imply that more success is headed his way down the stretch. With that said, the Marlins lit him up for seven earned runs in just 4.1 innings of work in their only other meeting this season. Christian Yelich leads the Marlins this season with a .396 wOBA and 149 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and his .392 OBP makes him a steady option in all formats this afternoon. J.T. Realmuto is out.
The Cubs left-handed batters slide up our rankings this afternoon versus Tom Koehler
Tom Koehler was terrific in his last outing as he tossed six shutout innings against the Phillies and picked up his eighth win of the season. However, with a 4.86 xFIP and having struggled on the road all season (4.55 ERA and 1.56 WHIP), it’s hard to see him repeating that success this afternoon against this dangerous Cubs lineup. Left-handed batters have posted a .340 wOBA and own a .29.5% hard-hit percentage off of Koehler this season giving a nice fantasy boost to Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward and Miguel Montero.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, Jason Heyward Bryce Harper scratched from Nationals lineup
Harper has been scratched from tonight’s game due to an illness. Wilmer Difo will replace him and bat eighth.
As reported by: Dan Kolko Verified Twitter Feed Other tagged players: Wilmer Difo Red Sox implied run total (4.2) continues to plummet despite above-average matchup versus LeBlanc
Wade LeBlanc just hasn’t found a way to stick in a MLB rotation for an extended period over the past few years proving he’s just not quite good enough to be a big league pitcher. Leblanc has had the most success with his control this season, posting a minuscule 3.9% walk rate thus far. However, the below-average strikeouts (16.2%) and high fly ball rate (47.5%) to right-handed batters may not put Leblanc in the most beneficial position given the matchup. The Red Sox have been better against right-handed pitching this season but still have the third highest wOBA (.346) in the majors versus left-handed pitching. The Red Sox righties are all in play but Hanley Ramirez (166 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .230 ISO vs LHP), Xander Bogaerts (143 wRC+, .391 wOBA vs LHP), and Mookie Betts (.238 ISO vs LHP) are the top options in cash games and tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Wade LeBlanc Ryan Schimpf (162 wRC+, .367 ISO vs RHP) bats second against Davies
Zachary Davies has been a league average arm for the Brewers (19.8 K%, 3.59 ERA, 4.10 SIERA, 4.02 xFIP) and is in a good spot in Petco against the Padres (82 wRC+, 24.8 K% vs RHP), but they’re a little more left-handed now and he costs $9.9K on DraftKings, which is a lot to pay tonight for a pitcher with a strikeout rate below 20%. LHBs have just a .304 wOBA against him and RHBs actually have a higher hard hit rate (34.5%), but players still might want to consider two low cost LHBs in the San Diego lineup tonight. Ryan Schimpf has been tearing up RHP (162 wRC+, .367 ISO) and bats second tonight for less than $3.5K on either site (just $2.7K on FanDuel), while Alex Dickerson (130 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats fifth for just $3K.
Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson, Zach Davies
David Price has a 3.39 ERA/3.38 xFIP over last 14 starts, going at least seven innings nine times
There haven’t been many pitchers more volatile than David Price this season, but overall his 19.9 K-BB% and estimators (3.36 SIERA, 3.18 xFIP) are right in line with his career rates, though he’s allowing a lot more hard contact (35.8%) than ever before. To pick a random cutoff point though, over his last 14 starts, he has a 3.39 ERA with a 3.38 xFIP and has gone at least seven innings nine times. Seattle has a surprising amount of power at home (17 HR/FB) and against LHP (17.3 HR/FB), but it’s still an overall negative run environment. Price has cut down on HRs recently, not allowing any in his last four starts. He’s one of many considerations in the $10K range tonight. For the Mariners, Franklin Gutierrez (154 wRC+, .267 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is back in the two hole for just over $3K on either site, while Nelson Cruz demolishes LHP (192 wRC+, .336 ISO since last season), but costs quite a bit more on DraftKings, though a reasonable $3.5K on FanDuel. RHBs do have a 33.7 Hard% against Price since last season (.285 wOBA).
Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz Robbie Ray has struck out 22 of his last 47 batters, but with a hard hit rate above 40%
Robbie Ray had a 33.9 K% and 14.0 Hard% in July, including striking out 22 of his last 47 batters, but that was in Milwaukee and Cincinnati, where he also allowed 11 runs (nine earned) in 10.2 innings with a hard hit rate above 40% in each start. This is one high upside pitcher players might consider fading in a difficult park against an offense that hammers LHP (111 wRC+, 16.4 HR/FB). RHBs have a .334 wOBA and 37.6 Hard% vs Ray since last season, making Jayson Werth (177 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP this season) and Trea Turner (119 wRC+ vs RHP career) potentially strong values for less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Robbie Ray Zack Cozart scratched Tuesday, Ivan De Jesus will now bat 2nd and play SS
Cozart has been scratched with a bruised right ring finger. Ivan De Jesus will now play SS and bat 2nd, but he’s still not a recommended value play against Adam Wainwright on a full slate. Wainwright’s outlook improves slightly as a result of this news, but he’s still not a top target on the road in Cincinnati.
As reported by: @Reds Other tagged players: Ivan De Jesus
Andrew McCutchen out of the lineup tonight, Joyce replaces him and bats third
Mike Foltynewicz (4.13 SIERA) has shown the ability to post some solid outings this season but has struggled mightily with left-handed batters (.366 wOBA, 4.85 xFIP). Foltynewicz is also surrendering a high 48.2% fly ball rate that is accompanied by a 32.5% hard contact rate allowed. This puts all of the Pirates lefties in play as part of a stack or one offs if going home run hunting. Matt Joyce (165 wRC+, .414 wOBA, .287 ISO vs RHP) is the top overall value in the Pirates order given his lower price tag and lineup bump to the three-hole. Gregory Polanco (138 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .224 ISO vs RHP) is priced like an elite bat on certain sites but does get a prime matchup with Foltynewicz. Adam Frazier (142 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .256 ISO vs RHP) has raked left-handed pitching in a small sample thus far and definitely can be considered at a shallow SS position with his inexpensive price. Starling Marte (141 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .164 ISO vs RHP) sacrifices the platoon advantage in this spot but still hits RHP well and receives a boost to his stolen base upside with A.J. Pierzynski behind the plate for Atlanta.
Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Mike Foltynewicz Kevin's evening forecast expresses some concern in Colorado again
As Kevin states in his evening forecast, some risk seems to be the norm in Colorado around this time of year, but there is probably not enough concern at YELLOW/ORANGE to recommend fading two of the three highest projected run totals tonight. Read his full report on our Weather Page (linked below) to see the full forecast and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page