DFS Alerts
Rockies currently have the highest implied run total on the slate (5.6)
The Rockies have the more favorable matchup of the two teams at Coors Field tonight as they take on Brock Stewart making only his second career start. Stewart has exhibited some strikeout ability in the minors but has a difficult task for any pitcher, let alone a pitcher with such little experience. The only case for fading Colorado is that they have never faced Stewart before, and he may be able to work his way through the lineup a couple times before the Rockies pick up on his stuff. The Dodgers bullpen is decent but the more innings they need pitch, the more susceptible to runs they become. As usual, Carlos Gonzalez (137 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .226 ISO vs RHP), Nolan Arenado (115 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .282 ISO vs RHP), and Charlie Blackmon (109 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .182 ISO vs RHP) are the top options in the Rockies order. David Dahl and Daniel Descalso (128 wRC+, .390 wOBA vs RHP) are both cheap, putting them firmly in play as a part of any Colorado stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Daniel Descalso, Brock Stewart
Johnny Cueto among the top arms on tonight's slate
Johnny Cueto has gone exactly five innings with at least three runs and no more than four strikeouts in two of his last three starts, but at least six innings with eight strikeouts in three of his last five. What we have here is another high priced, inconsistent pitcher, with an ERA well below his estimators. At least his great home park and a 25.9 Hard% can explain a major portion of the ERA gap, but he’s going to experience a major park downgrade tonight. Fortunately, the opposing offense is the worst home offense in baseball (17.5 K-BB%, 23.2 Hard%) and second worst vs RHP (14.7 K-BB%, 28.3 Hard%). Cueto is a fine play in any format tonight as a large favorite thanks to the Aaron Nola scratch.
Pirates set to tee off against Robert Whalen
The Pirates will face off with Robert Whalen on Wednesday, who will be making his MLB debut in a less than ideal spot. Whalen was ranked as the Braves 29th best prospect coming into the season and has had a lot of success at the AAA level this season, but it’s always hard to know how that will translate to the big league level. We’re not expecting him to have much success in this spot, and the one through six hitters are all in prime spots to take advantage of his inexperience. Adam Frazier is in the lineup tonight after a productive outing last night, and he’ll be bumped up to the leadoff spot which makes him one of the better punt plays of the day. He’s got plenty of SB upside and is in a prime run-producing spot hitting in front of Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte. Gregory Polanco (.371 wOBA, .222 ISO vs. RHP) is one of the top plays overall in the outfield, with Starling Marte (.378 wOBA, .163 ISO) not far behind in the ranks. Jung-ho Kang is in a prime lineup spot batting third (sandwiched between Polanco and Marte) which should lead to him seeing some good pitches to hit, although he’s been struggling a bit dating back to mid-July. Matt Joyce is in the lineup once again with Andrew McCutchen sitting for the second straight day, and Joyce is still far too cheap across the industry given his upside (.412 wOBA, .280 ISO). Target the Pirates with confidence.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Adam Frazier, Jung-Ho Kang, Matt Joyce Reverse line movement in favor of the Blue Jays suggests a low-scoring affair in Houston tonight
Marco Estrada could be in interesting tournament play in a high risk, high reward matchup against Houston. Estrada has posted some solid strikeout numbers this season (23.3% K%) with a high fly ball rate (47.4%). This combination has allowed Estrada to have some great success when the BABIP and HR/FB rate go in his favor. The Astros may be able to get to him with the power they have in their lineup but their are better spots to target on this slate. The Astos best hitters are all right-handed which works in the favor of Estrada making it relatively easy to look for offense elsewhere tonight, even in tournaments. This is clearly a spot to play Estrada or fade the matchup entirely.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Giants implied run total on the rise (4.7) due to Aaron Nola scratch, face relative unknown Phil Klein in Philadelphia
Klein only has 45 career innings pitched in the majors making it tough to really get a good read on his ability as a major league starting pitcher. He has definitely flashed some substantial strikeout upside at the major league level thus far against right-handed batters (26.6% K%), but a lot his appearances came out of the bullpen. Again, this makes it difficult to get a read on his actual ability. Klein has been starting games at AAA for the Phillies so it seems that he is stretched out if he manages to pitch well. If he doesn’t, this will turn into a bullpen game which will be an added boost to the Giants offense given how horrendous the Phillies bullpen has been. A full Giants stack is now firmly in play and their left-handed batters are the bats we want to preferably target. A case can be made for any Giants hitter as a part of a stack, but the top options are Brandon Belt (143 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP), Brandon Crawford (.185 ISO vs RHP) and Joe Panik (.167 ISO vs RHP) given their platoon advantage and potential power upside.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Phil Klein Indians currently own the second-highest implied run total on the slate (5.2), but is it warranted?
There’s no denying that Tyler Duffey has been dreadful in his last two starts, but he has also flashed upside recently, striking out at least eight in two of his last six starts. On a slate where we may want to get exposure to some higher priced bats, there is case to made for rostering Duffey in tournaments on sites where he is at or near minimum price. Duffey has shown some pretty massive reverse splits this season (.411 wOBA, 6.33 FIP, 2.42 HR/9 vs RHB) and to this point in his short career as a matter of fact. These numbers would be great to attack if Cleveland wasn’t rolling out a lineup with just two right-handed batters. Duffey also has a basically league average strikeout rate to lefties (19.7%) while only allowing a 3.6% BB% and inducing a 53.5% ground ball rate. This is not a rousing Tyler Duffey endorsement by any means but there is evidence to support that he could put together a good performance for his low price tag in this matchup. However, if preferring to attack Duffey with Cleveland bats, Mike Napoli (.266 ISO vs RHP) is the top option and has been absolutely raking over the last week. To round out the Indians stack we should look to Tyler Naquin (176 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .293 ISO vs RHP), Jason Kipnis (136 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .226 ISO vs RHP), Lonnie Chisenhall (121 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .165 ISO vs RHP), and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .156 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Francisco Lindor Cardinals among the top team targets in Cincinnati against Cody Reed
Not only do the Cardinals have one of the highest team totals of the day, they also have a lot of value bats hitting in prime lineup spots. Reds lefty Cody Reed has struggled mightily in his rookie season and the Reds have said they are content in letting him work through his struggles at the major league level, which is great news for DFS players. Reed has allowed a .408 wOBA to RH bats including a 2.8 HR/9 rate with a 41.9 hard%, so there is no reason not to pick on him with several of the Cardinals right-handers. Tommy Pham will draw the nod at the top of the order, and while he doesn’t have much data available against LHP, he’s got some power upside out of the leadoff spot and is priced very reasonably given his opportunity here. Pham’s biggest weakness is the strikeout, so if he work around that this evening, he should be in good shape. Jedd Gyorko will slot into the two-hole, and while his numbers against LHs also aren’t overwhelming by any stretch, he does flash that 2-HR upside every now and again and considering Reed’s issues with the long ball, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him leave the yard tonight. Stephen Piscotty (.460 wOBA, .301 ISO) is among the top overall plays on tonight’s slate, and pairing him up with Matt Holliday (.308 wOBA, .248 ISO) is a viable move in any format. Jhonny Peralta will hit sixth tonight and he certainly has some power upside against lefties (.201 ISO vs. LHP in 2015), so he’s also very playable as part of a Cardinals stack or as a stand-alone play. Any of the bats in the top seven here are in play, even the lefties who are likely to get a few shots at the plate against right-handed relievers (the Reds own the league’s worst bullpen).
Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham, Jhonny Peralta, Cody Reed Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker become solid targets in Yankee Stadium
We have very little data to work with on Chad Green, but he’s struggled against lefties so far this season (5 HRs allowed in 11 IP) with a 43.8 hard%. This sets up nicely for several of the Mets left-handed bats, who will receive a big park boost with the series shifting over to Yankee Stadium. Jay Bruce is the top target here with a .373 wOBA, .313 ISO and 39.3 hard% against RHP, and those numbers take a slight uptick when he’s facing RHP on the road. As far as GPP plays go in the outfield, Bruce is near the top of the list given his power upside and the fact that he likely won’t be a popular play. Next up is Curtis Granderson, who has been cold of late but still produces very well against RHP and will have a little of the revenge factor working in his favor. Granderson had a few of his best seasons with the Yankees and his .210 ISO against RHP should play very well in this park. Neil Walker is also a solid mid-range target hitting second between Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes, who will make his return from an injury this evening. Cespedes is also a viable GPP play with his .367 wOBA, .258 ISO and 39.2 hard% against RHP.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Chad Green Tigers surprisingly high opening implied run total on the decline, currently sits at 4.3 runs
For awhile it started looking like Chris Sale was going to revert back to his old strikeout ways, but in his last three starts he has only managed a 18.5% strikeout rate. While that is concerning, Sale still had a 10.7% SwStr% in those starts so he may have just been a little unlucky. This matchup against the Tigers might not be as bad as it seems either, with Detroit ranking as a middle of the pack offense versus left-handed pitching (97 wRC+, .320 wOBA, .161 ISO). The Tigers do have enough firepower on offense that we should really only reserve Sale for tournaments on this slate. We’ve strangely come to view Sale as a pitcher that lacks upside due to the fact we were so used to the massive strikeout totals he’s posted in past seasons, but he still has a significantly above-average 24.1% strikeout rate combined with a low 5.8% walk rate this season. The point is, we’ve seen lesser pitchers dominate this Tigers offense at times and Sale has the ability to dial up the strikeouts again at anytime if he so chooses.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Yankees rank 27th against LHP with a .303 wOBA, .129 ISO
Steven Matz has pitched well in his last two starts (12 IP – 2 ER – 0 HR – 3 BB – 11 K – 53 BF), but has unfortunately had a ground ball rate below 40% with a hard hit rate above 30% in three of his last four starts. As this series moves to Yankee Stadium, he benefits from being a lefty because although the Yankees have just a 17.9 K% against them, they also have just a 9.5 HR/FB. The loss of Beltran, a switch hitter who hits LHP well, hurts them even more here. This is a great spot for Matz despite the park downgrade for him. The Yankees rank 27th in wOBA (.303), 28th in ISO (.129) and 26th in wRC+ (86), and a lineup featuring Chase Headley in the clean-up spot gives us even more reason to feel comfortable picking on them. He’s not the strongest cash game play on the board, but Matz provides plenty of GPP upside and should be under-owned relative to guys like Hamels and Cueto.
Votto mashes RHP and has been scorching of late (259 wRC+, .562 wOBA, .297 ISO last 14 days)
We get a pretty marginal matchup in Cincinnati tonight that is really tough to excited about on either side. Michael Wacha (4.20 SIERA) has some name value so we should expect he will draw some ownership on sites where he is cheap. Wacha is pretty average pitcher in all regards so its difficult to really load up on bats against him especially with this Reds offense. A Cincinnati stack probably isn’t viable option on this large of a slate but going homerun hunting with Joey Votto (157 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .230 ISO vs RHP) or Scott Schebler (.206 ISO vs RHP) could really pay off in tournaments. Votto is an elite play tonight regardless of price tag given his numbers against right-handed pitching and consistent ability to almost always put up points.
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Michael Wacha Jake Odorizzi comes in as one of the top mid-range SP options on tonight's slate
Jake Odorizzi started July disastrously, but has finished it off with a 20.3 K-BB% and -1.7 Hard-Soft% over his last three starts. He’s otherwise been not much better than league average this season, but that should suit us just fine against the slumping Royals, who now may be tonight’s top park adjusted matchup. They are the second worst road offense in baseball and have just a 9.3 HR/FB vs RHP. Odorizzi typically fares better at home which makes sense given the pitcher-friendliness of Tropicana Field (his FIP is about a run higher on the road), which explains why the Royals have one of the lowest team totals of the day. He’s also sporting a K/9 over 9.00 at home (9.1 K/9, 24.9 K%), with his one big concern being the amount of hard contact he’s allowing (34.2 hard% at home). Even considering the hard-contact aspect, Odorizzi is in a great spot to hit value at his mid-range price tag across the industry. After struggling to get into the sixth inning throughout most of June/early July, he’s now pitched at least six innings in his last three starts, including an eight inning outing in Oakland two weeks ago.
Aaron Nola placed on the DL, will not start tonight; RHP Phil Klein to start Wednesday
Nola has been placed on the DL with an elbow strain, and the Phillies have called up Phil Klein to start tonight against the Giants. This is a huge boost for the Giants bats, and they now become one of the top team targets of the day.
As reported by: Jayson Stark Other tagged players: Phil Klein Jeff Locke owns a 3.2% K-BB% to RHB this season
There’s no debating that Locke (5.12 SIERA) has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He does get what seems to be an exploitable matchup against a Braves offense that has been brutal against left-handed pitching as a whole this season (73 wRC+, .282 wOBA, .103 ISO). However, with the acquisition of Matt Kemp (167 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .340 ISO vs LHP), Atlanta suddenly becomes that much more formidable against left-handed pitching. Locke has been horrible against righties (.371 wOBA, 5.07 xFIP) so that’s definitely where we will want to attack him in this matchup. Outside of Kemp, Gordon Beckham (112 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .189 ISO vs LHP) and Anthony Recker are the top stacking options given their price tags and typically shallow positions. Locke has been better against lefties, but Freddie Freeman (141 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .214 ISO vs LHP) could be a nice contrarian option at first base given the success he has had against left-handed pitching.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Gordon Beckham, Anthony Recker, Freddie Freeman, Jeff Locke Cole Hamels faces off with the Orioles, who rank 25th against LHP this season
The Orioles are an interesting story this season, as they possess quite a few potent right-handed bats but have continually struggled against southpaws over the course of 2016. They rank 25th against LHP in wOBA (.304) and wRC+ (86) with a nearly league average strikeout rate (21.7%), setting up Cole Hamels for another steady performance this evening. He’s coming off of an eight innings, 12 strikeout performance against the Royals and has been considerably better on the road this year, holding opposing hitters to a .261 wOBA and a 0.73 HR/9 rate. Among pitchers on this slate who have made more than one start this season, Hamels owns the highest SwStr% (12.4%) and the third-highest K% (23.5%). He’s playable in any format tonight but is probably better suited as a GPP target with Johnny Cueto likely possessing a slightly higher floor (and similar ceiling) in the same price range.