DFS Alerts
Eagles have great match up at RB position, but who to target?
The Eagles face the Redskins this week in what is a great spot for any RB as Washington ranks dead last in RB (Run) DVOA. They are significantly better in terms of RB (Pass) DVOA as they rank 7th there. Given that Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson stated this morning that there’s a good chance all four RB’s play this week, however, it’s a murky situation as to which RB to target. Ryan Mathews is the obvious choice as he led the team in touches last week with 16 (Darren Sproles had 9). Backups Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner had 0 touches. Mathews also has 4 TD’s in four games and appears to be the RB the team looks to inside the 10 yard line. With Washington being better at defending backs like Sproles, it looks like Mathews is the back to target this week. At a very affordable price tag of $6,500 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings, he is an excellent GPP option as he’ll likely be under-owned (especially given Pederson’s statement) but has two TD upside.
As reported by: Bog Grotz on Twitter Other tagged players: Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood, Kenjon Barner
Eric Decker being placed on IR by Jets
This move doesn’t come as a complete surprise as Decker’s rotator cuff injury was severe. He will undergo surgery and thus end his season. Quincy Enunwa becomes the #2 WR for the Jets and is a viable DFS option in most weeks. Robby Anderson should move up to the #3 spot and can have some value when the match ups are good. This week would not be that week, however, as the Jets have to travel to Arizona to face a defense that is #5 in overall DVOA and #6 against the pass.
As reported by: Adam Schefter on Twitter Other tagged players: Quincy Enunwa, Robbie Chosen Steve Smith doubtful to play this week against Giants
Ravens beat reporter Jamison Hensley said this morning that veteran WR Steve Smith is doubtful to play this week in their game against the New York Giants. The report mentioned Kamar Aiken as the player who would benefit the most as he’ll likely replace Smith and run most of his routes out of the slot. Leon Hall is the primary slot CB for the Giants and while he grades out relatively well in Pro Football Focus’s grades, he did get torched by Randall Cobb last weekend for more than 100 yards. Aiken isn’t Randall Cobb, however, and he’s hard to trust given his lack of productivity this season. That said, he’s probably worth being used in a lineup or two if you are looking to stack a WR with Joe Flacco. Breshad Perriman should also benefit as he’ll likely have the best match up of the WR group this weekend. Mike Wallace should play but has the toughest match up on the board going against Janoris Jenkins who has shown shutdown capabilities this season. We’ll keep you updated on the Ravens WR situation as the week progresses.
As reported by: Mike Clay on Twitter Other tagged players: Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, Kamar Aiken Travis Kelce is a great option to exploit Oakland's terrible pass defense
The Raiders have allowed the second most receiving fantasy points per game this season (PPR format), which makes them a good team to pick on. In Week 6 they host the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that likes to play conservatively and spread the ball around. Jeremy Maclin leads the team in targets with a 22.0% market share. However, he’s only had an outright team-lead in targets one time, when he had 15 against the Texans — he’s had eight or fewer looks in every other contest. If you take that game out of the equation, Travis Kelce would lead the team with 26 targets to Maclin’s 22. Maclin’s market share falls from 22.0% to 16.7%, while Kelce’s rises from 17.3% to 19.7%. On the season as a whole, the most notable difference is in red zone usage. Kelce has eight red zone targets, which equates to 24.24% of the team’s opportunities. Maclin has seen just two targets, or 6.06%. While it’s true that in most cases red zone targets don’t tell the whole story, as plenty of receivers score from more than 20 yards out, Kansas City is different. Alex Smith is possibly the most conservative quarterback in the NFL, which has lead to an average of 6.4 yards per pass attempt, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Jeremy Maclin has posted 12.2 yards per reception while having just two plays over 20 yards. Compare that to Chargers wide receivers Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams, both of whom scored on the Raiders in Week 5: both players have seven 20-yard plays and average 14.1 and 17.0 yards per reception respectively. Kansas City lacks that big play ability, they score inside the red zone. Last week, the Raiders allowed a pair of red zone touchdowns to tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. In Week 2, they gave up a red zone touchdown to tight end Jacob Tamme. We know that’s a type of play the Raiders are susceptible to and we know that’s the type of play the Chiefs like to run. Based on these observations, Travis Kelce should have the highest touchdown potential in the passing game. In this particular matchup, given his market share of targets inside the 20-yard line, he has two-touchdown upside. Overall, the Raiders have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends in PPR. While much of the focus will be on Delanie Walker against the Browns, Greg Olsen in the Superdome, Jimmy Graham, Reed, and Gronk, Kelce will likely slip through the cracks under owned and makes for a great contrarian GPP play this weekend.
As reported by: Scott Barrett Other tagged players: Jeremy Maclin
LeSean McCoy set for big day against the 49ers
McCoy had an exceptional day against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5, rushing for 150 yards on 18 carries. Unfortunately, Mike Gillislee vultured a 5-yard touchdown after McCoy set him up with a 53-yard run, taking away 6.5 fantasy points. Gillislee will be a goal line threat each game, but McCoy will be an excellent play this weekend against the 49ers. He still accounts for 40% of the team’s red zone work and 47.06% of the Bills’ total touches. He’s a workhorse back facing a team that gave up 157 rushing yards and two touchdowns to David Johnson a week ago. It also helps that Buffalo runs the ball 47.2% of the time, fourth-most in the NFL. As of now, they’re 7.5-point favorites at home, so they should continue that trend. San Francisco plays at the highest pace in the league, which will lead to some extra possessions for McCoy and the Bills. The 49ers also happen to be a mess at the moment, planning a quarterback switch for Week 6, and they’re a west coast team playing a 1pm game on the east coast. All of these signs are pointing towards McCoy getting a ton of volume in a dream matchup. Currently, we’re projecting his ownership to be just 5.0% on FanDuel even though he ranks third in our points-per-dollar projections for the site. Despite the low game total of 44, the Bills have an implied total of 25.75 due to the large spread. Given their lack of talent at receiver and expected game flow, Shady should play a huge part in getting those points.
Larry Donnell expected to clear concussion protocol, will likely practice in some capacity tomorrow
Donnell wasn’t able to suit up in Week 5 due to a concussion, but he’s reportedly feeling much better and is expected to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol by tomorrow. It’s likely that he’s able to practice tomorrow, even if it’s in a limited capacity. Will Tye would be an intriguing punt play at the TE spot if Donnell is inactive, but both players being healthy makes it a situation to avoid.
As reported by: Art Stapleton Other tagged players: Will Tye
CB Brandon Flowers misses practice Tuesday
Flowers sat out the last two games after suffering a concussion in Week 3 and remains in the league’s concussion protocol. If he can’t go Thursday night it would be an upgrade to the Denver passing game as the Chargers are also without their best corner, Jason Verrett. Oakland quarterback Derek Carr lit up the Chargers for 317 yards and a pair of touchdowns, although San Diego forced an interception as well. The Chargers secondary had trouble covering Amari Cooper all day and they’ll likely struggle to contain Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders appears to be Denver’s favorite receiver as he leads Thomas in targets 51 to 34 on the season. In the red zone, Sanders has double the targets of Thomas (10 to 5) and is tied for the second-most in the league. He shouldn’t have trouble making plays Thursday night.
As reported by: Michael Gehlken Other tagged players: Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas Devontae Booker in on 29 of 70 offensive snaps in Week 5; Anderson in on 36 of 70
The Broncos RB situation is one worth monitoring over the next few weeks. We saw as close to a timeshare as we’ve seen all seen in Week 5, with Booker in on 41% of the snaps to Anderson’s 51%. Anderson out-touched Booker 14 to 10, and while we still expect Anderson to receive the bulk of the work against a beatable Chargers run-defense in Week 6, Booker’s presence and increased role does put a slight cap on Anderson’s GPP ceiling. Even with his workload dipping over the last three weeks, Anderson is still 7th in red-zone carries among RBs and it’s clear he’s still going to be a big factor in close. The offensive line (and Virgil Green) injuries are playing a role in Anderson’s struggles, but Booker’s increasing snap counts (he’s gone up in snap percentage in each game) is also playing a big part.
As reported by: Cameron Wolfe Other tagged players: Devontae Booker Carson Palmer officially clears concussion protocol
Palmer will get back to practice tomorrow and is fully expected to start Monday night against the Jets. According to VegasInsider the Cardinals are 7.5-point favorites for that matchup, which is a similar line to the Jets-Steelers contest of this past weekend. New York remains strong against the rush (3rd in DVOA, per Football Outsiders), limiting Le’Veon Bell to 66 yards on 20 carries. However, their passing defense was torn apart by Big Ben, who racked up 380 yards and four touchdowns. Look for the Cardinals to take a similar approach, putting the ball in the air a lot despite being big favorites. This isn’t a reason to fade David Johnson whatsoever, he’ll still get carries paired with a healthy dose of targets; Bell did most of his damage through the air, catching nine balls for 88 yards. Palmer getting back in the lineup is good news for receivers like Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. Even better news is they’re going against the Jets, a team that ranks 31st in passing DVOA.
As reported by: Mark Dalton Other tagged players: David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown DeAngelo Williams dealing with knee injury
Details surrounding the injury were not immediately available. We likely won’t know more until tomorrow. Since Le’Veon Bell returned, Williams has just six total touches. He only had one against the Jets this past weekend, although that may be due to this injury. As long as Bell is suiting up for the Steelers, Williams doesn’t have much fantasy value outside of garbage time.
As reported by: Ed Bouchette Dolphins release Isaiah Pead
Pead was part of the infamous four-man committee in Miami that lasted two weeks before the coaching staff realized it was a terrible idea. He happened to be the fourth man in the group, only getting eight carries since Arian Foster went down, so he was never relevant for fantasy purposes. Jay Ajayi had 13 of the 17 rushes for Miami this past weekend. He will remain the lead back if Foster misses more time. Pead’s release comes on the heels of tackles Branden Albert and Sam Young getting cut earlier today. Frustrated with the Dolphins’ performance this year, coach Adam Gase is trying to shake things up in South Beach. They have a tough matchup with the red hot Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend.
As reported by: Alex Marvez Other tagged players: Jay Ajayi Virgil Green has full practice Monday, expected to play Thursday
Green has been dealing with a calf injury that lead to him becoming a surprise scratch from Sunday’s lineup. He was back to practice Monday and should be ready to start against the Chargers Thursday night. In the two games he’s played this season he averaged 3.5 receptions for 37 yards and zero touchdowns. Even though he’s missed three games, he remains tied for third on the team in receptions. Denver’s quarterbacks simply haven’t been using many passing game options outside of Sanders, Thomas, and Anderson. San Diego is allowing 9.3 receptions and 74.2 yards per game to opposing tight ends and Football Outsiders ranks them 20th in DVOA against the position. If Siemian (assuming he plays) starts looking for him, he could make some plays in a nice matchup.
As reported by: Mike Klis Cam Newton participated in drills Monday, on track to play the Saints
Newton is still in the concussion protocol, but after working through some drills yesterday it looks like he’ll be cleared this week. As we mentioned earlier, this is the DFS game of the week that should feature a lot of offense, little defense, and a whole bunch of fantasy production. For Newton specifically, this is a huge moment. The defending NFC Champions find themselves stuck in a terrible Super Bowl slump and last place in their division. Newton, as the team leader coming off an injury, has a lot to play for this week. He currently projects as the number one quarterback in terms of raw points on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Despite his high price, he’s also our top points-per-dollar option on FanDuel (and third on DK).
As reported by: Joseph Person Brice Butler and Cameron Meredith two top value options on DraftKings this week
In the RotoGrinders.com projections, two players stand out as the top points per dollar plays at the WR position on DraftKings this week. Cameron Meredith is coming off a huge week and while his price has risen to $4.1K (from the minimum of $3K), he should be in line for another big day in targets as he has established himself as Brian Hoyer’s favorite option. The match up against the Jaguars isn’t the best (they are 7th in pass DVOA but are bottom 5 in DVOA against WR #2) but the opportunities should trump that. With Dez Bryant likely out another week, Brice Butler again shines as a top option for the Cowboys as they face a Packers team that is 22nd in pass DVOA and 2nd to last in DVOA against WR1’s and WR2’s. There is some risk involved as Butler was only targeted 3 times last week against the Bengals but the Cowboys took a run heavy approach in that game – something they may not be able to do against a Packers defense that is 2nd in DVOA against RB Run.
Other tagged players: Cameron Meredith Justin Forsett signing with Detroit Lions
The Lions have been hit hard by injuries in their backfield and have announced the signing of former Ravens RB Justin Forsett. He likely won’t be in play this week as he gets acclimated to the team leaving Theo Riddick as the back to roster from Detroit but it’s a situation to monitor as the season progresses.
As reported by: Adam Schefter on Twitter