DFS Alerts
Marlon Mack practicing
Marlon Mack practicing again Friday. We might need tom pump the breaks on the Colts backfield value. If Mack is active on Sunday then this will be a crowded backfield that would be tough to roster.
As reported by: Mike Chappell
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery out a "few more weeks"
This report via Twitter states Jeffery should miss multiple weeks here. Nelson Agholar was targeted heavily in Thursday’s opener, although nothing substantial came out of the short routes. Adjust expectations on Eagles pass catchers accordingly.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Twitter Don't overlook this team's passing offense
The entire Bengals passing offense is being offered at salaries lower than they should, and while AJ Green will likely draw ownership as usual, the rest of the team’s offense could go overlooked. Second year wide receivers have a tendency to go overlooked anyway, particularly when they had a disappointing rookie season like Cincinnati speedster John Ross. The number nine pick in the 2017 draft, Ross broke the record for 40-time at the 2017 scouting combine and has finally looked healthy this offseason. That could mean good things for the bargain-priced Andy Dalton as well as the team travels to Indy for a matchup with a Colts defense that ranked 28th in passing yards per game allowed in 2017.
Other tagged players: John Ross
Rico Gathers Arrested for Marijuana charges
Rico Gathers Arrested for Marijuana charges…. He was moving up the depth charts for the receiving deprived Cowboys. We will wait and see if this sets him back again.
As reported by: Kate Hairopoulos Best Wide Receiver by a Mile
Ben Roethlisberger has struggled on the road throughout his career and by all accounts, the Browns are going to have a good defense this season. I was planning to be underweight on the Steelers’ offense until Le’Veon Bell refused to show up to team meetings on Wednesday. Based on what his agent is saying, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be with the team on Sunday. Everyone will gravitate to James Conner (and rightly so), but this should lead to more targets for Antonio Brown, who has been the most productive wide receiver in the NFL for years. He’ll face a very beatable Browns’ secondary and should see a nice mix of short and deep targets, which gives him a high floor and a high ceiling for DFS.
He's not dead yet
With the Saints the week’s biggest favorite against Tampa, it’s likely the Bucs will be throwing the ball late. DeSean Jackson is certainly good deep and can stand to benefit from the occasional shot play, but he’s also dangerous on the route that the Go sets up: the Curl. Additionally he’s well-targeted on Outs, earning 28 targets on the route last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the passer Winston is on intermediate routes, but he’s not below average, and his deep ball completion percentage is similar. Jackson is a solid GPP play.
Large Workload for the Most Efficient Player in the NFL
Even after we found out about Mark Ingram’s suspension, I was hesitant to project 20+ touches for Alvin Kamara for Week 1. However, after the Saints cut two of their backup running backs, they only have two left on their roster and Mike Gillislee just barely joined the team. He may take a few short-yardage carries away from Kamara, but if we can get 20+ touches in a home matchup against the Saints, he will likely be the highest scoring running back of the week. When he gets in open space, good luck bringing him down. The best part is that there is enough value to easily fit him into your lineups without sacrificing your other positions.
Potential Bell Cow Usage at Home in a Favorable Matchup
Before the preseason started, we all laughed at the idea of Christian McCaffrey being a bell cow running back. He was too small to run between the tackles last year and wasn’t all that effective when given the opportunity. The Panthers continued to say that he would be their workhorse and they haven’t done anything in the preseason to suggest otherwise. The coaches are saying 25-30 touches for C-Mac in Week 1 against the Cowboys. While I’m a little skeptical about that many touches, I will gladly take 20+ at this price point. He had the 21st most targets of any player in the NFL last season and he successfully converted a goal line opportunity in the preseason. Everything is lining up for a big year for C-Mac and his price will only go up from here on out.
More than just a deep threat
Kenny Stills earned the majority of his targets in 2017 on shorter and intermediate routes than on verticals, which are typically decoy routes in the NFL. Stills had 33 targets on Outs and 29 targets on Curls last season, so his versatility in the passing game is understated. With uncertainty in the Dolphins receiving corps, Stills’ 0.46 TDs per game when Ryan Tannehill starts makes for a good value, coupled with likely low ownership against the Titans. He’s a solid GPP play.
Adrian Peterson Ready for Big Workload with Redskins
Adrian Peterson ready for big workload with Redskins. It may all just be coach talk and banter, but really Peterson only has one serious competitor for 1st and 2nd down work in Washington right now. And that guy is Rob Kelley, not a beacon of greatness by any stretch. There are plenty of ways to save salary Week 1, so maybe we play this by ear against Arizona Sunday.
As reported by: John Keim Contrarian play in SF
Nearly all sharps and most of the public have heard the drumbeat of Goodwin all pre-season, but Pierre Garcon is still set up to be the high target volume receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. His 9.7 aDOT vs Goodwin’s 14.7 aDOT in 2017 gives him a higher floor due to more high percentage targets coming his way. He’s a technician with an ability to separate and earn targets, especially on deeper crossing routes, giving him some upside against a stout Vikings D.
Healthy and ready to roll
Manny Sanders went from well above average in game speed to well below last season due to injury. He is healthy again, and is the cheaper of the two DEN receivers. He’ll be well-owned, but his value is worth the chalk.
Veteran QB is a Bargain as Large Favorite Playing at Home
Joe Flacco may not be the sexiest of names to start at the Quarterback position this week, but he is still favored by more than a touchdown at home, as one of the cheapest QBs on the board, and WRs John Brown and Michael Crabtree are bargains as well. Flacco had a disappointing season last year as he suffered through injuries, averaging only 196.3 passing yards per game, but he averaged 269.8 passing yards per game in 2016, and 279.1 passing yards per game in 2015. The Ravens upgraded their receiving corps this offseason, adding Crabtree and Brown, and Brown in particular adds a vertical element to the Ravens passing game that has been missing in recent years.
Other tagged players: John Brown Low owned and good is a solid combo
Concern about Andrew Luck’s arm is causing the public to be too low on Hilton, a guy my model pegs as a solid WR2 this year. Luck’s pre-season aDOT was half his career average, which has fueled the worry about his fastball. But Hilton is more than just a deep target, he’s a safety blanket, averaging 8.5 targets per game when Luck plays.
Destroyer of Souls
No more Brandin Cooks, no Danny Amendola and no Julian Edelman. Meet Chris Hogan, your WR1, and Rob Gronkowski, destroyer of souls. Gronk is likely to be Brady’s primary option against a Texans team that ranked 27th in DVOA defending the tight end last season. In their only 2017 meeting, Gronk tore apart the Texans for 8/89/1. Brady threw for 378 yards and five touchdowns that game with two of them going to Chris Hogan. The Patriots will move Hogan around the formation and look to get him matched up against Texans starting RCB Kevin Johnson who graded out as PFF’s worst cover corner last season. Johnson allowed a ridiculous 137.3 passer rating when targeted, allowing for 78% of balls thrown his way to be caught.
Other tagged players: Rob Gronkowski