DFS Alerts
The Splits: They're Good
While everyone flocks to jam James Conner into their lineups with the likely absence of Le’Veon Bell, I’m rushing to increase my Antonio Brown shares. No Le’Veon means more AB. Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) tweeted out AB’s splits in games from 2015-2017 when Big Ben was active but Bell was not. Spoiler alert: they’re good. There are 13 games in the split and in those games AB averages 13.7 targets, 9.7 receptions, 134.5 yards, 0.85 TDs, and 28.4 fantasy points per game (PPR scoring). Brown is expensive but there is more than enough value to make him a staple of your lineups in all formats.
Unrivaled Floor
I started out the week a little hesitant to pencil Kamara in for 20+ touches but feel more confident now that the only other active RB on the Saints roster is recently signed Mike Gillislee. The Saints own the highest implied team total of the slate at 29.5 points and Kamara will be a contributor both on the ground and through the air. Kamara caught six balls for 84 yards both times the Saints played the Bucs last year and his involvement in the passing game gives him a floor among running backs that is unrivaled. Kamara is a lock for me on FanDuel where there’s a smaller gap between him and the second-tier backs and a priority spend for me on DraftKings if I find myself not willing to trust one of the value RBs.
If and Only If
Rex Burkhead is a core play if and only if Sony Michel is either inactive or announced limited. Early in the preseason Jeff Howe of the Athletic reported that New England views Burkhead as an offensive focal point, particularly with Julian Edlman sidelined the first four games with a suspension. That may just be coach speak but Burkhead doesn’t need to be a ‘focal point’ to pay off his $4,200 price tag on DraftKings – he just needs touches. If Michel is inactive that should be enough to lock in 10-15 touches for Burkhead which is enough for Sexy Rexy to return value on his cheap DK tag.
Bad Chalk?
My honest take on Keelan Cole is that I think he may be bad chalk. I’m not sure I’ll ever get to the point where I feel comfortable rostering a Blake Bortles’ pass catcher in cash games. So why is he listed as a core play? It’s tough to match his projected opportunity at his price tag. Cole is only $3,800 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel and he makes lineup construction work. There are a couple of things that could happen that would potentially take me off Cole in DK cash games: Sony Michel is announced inactive/limited and Le’Veon Bell is officially out. The latter seems likely while there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the former. Basically, if I can comfortably play both Rex Burkhead and James Conner in cash games then I will likely fade Cole. If I am unable to play one of the cheap RB options then I will likely eat the Cole chalk even if it has a bit of a fishy taste to it.
West Coast Hammer
I am either very wrong on Phil Rivers or am very right. The lack of love for Rivers around the DFS community has been mystifying. Rivers initially jumped out to me as a top quarterback play of the Week 1 slate and my stance has not changed despite the masses focusing their attention elsewhere. My best guess is projection systems aren’t accurately accounting for just how bad this Chiefs defense is going to be. Kendall Fuller is a competent slot corner but the Chiefs are also set to play Orlando Scandrick in three wide receiver sets. Charger WRs should split time lining up opposite of Scandrick and they should absolutely feast. Scandrick graded out as PFF’s second worst coverage corner out of 85 CBs that saw at least 550 snaps last season. Opposing QB’s lit Scandrick up for a 112.9 passer rating. The Chargers are one of five teams with an implied team total north of 25 points and a three point spread should mean Rivers will be needed to make plays late in the game. I see the appeal of trying to go cheaper at the QB position on DraftKings but I’ll be doing what I can to pay up for Rivers.
Change of Pace to Bell-Cow
I’m bullish on CMac’s prospects of being featured as a bell-cow under new OC Norv Turner. CMac’s preseason usage was promising as he was on the field for 59-of-66 first-string snaps. McCaffrey’s Week 1 matchup against the Cowboys is a good one as the Cowboys weren’t only poor at containing running backs on the ground last season (22nd rush DVOA) but also through the air (28th in DVOA vs RBs as receivers). CMac is a core play on DraftKings where he’s underpriced for his expected usage at $6,400. FanDuel priced McCaffrey more accurately at $7,500 – he can still be considered in cash games there but isn’t quite the ‘lock-and-load’ that he is on DK.
Jay Gruden jokes he’d like to give Adrian Peterson 40 carries in Week 1
Jay Gruden jokes he’d like to give Adrian Peterson 40 carries in Week 1 according to a Redskins inside source. This is interesting as most have thought of Peterson as dust and that the signing was purely cosmetic. However if Peterson feels good enough to receive the volume it appears that Gruden will comply. Perhaps AD has a few more miles left in the body.
As reported by: JP Finlay Twitter
Marlon Mack Will Not Practice Today
Marlon Mack will not practice today. Bad sign for his availability Sunday. Jordan Wilkins is gaining serious steam as the Colts #1 RB in Week 1.
As reported by: Kevin Bowen Twitter Giants Coach - Engram out of Concussion Protocol.
Giants Shurmur – Engram out of concussion protocol. With lots of weapons it is tough to pin down how much Engram might be targeted Sunday. However his physical skill set puts him on the radar in DFS with high upside and a low floor.
As reported by: Ralph Vacchiano Twitter Zay Jones Ready to Play
Bills HC Sean McDermott said WR Zay Jones “is ready to go.” He is a lower tier option in Week 1.
As reported by: Joe Buscaglia Dalvin Cook Playing in Week 1
Dalvin Cook Playing in Week 1, as expected.
As reported by: Matt Barrow Twitter Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell NOT present for team meetings this morning
Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell NOT present for team meetings this morning. It’s early in the morning and we don’t know the circumstances surrounding this, but this is looking bad for Bell in regards to him suiting up this week. We will see how it plays out in the next 2 days, but James Conner would get the lion-share of work in the Steelers backfield if Bell sits out.
As reported by: Aditi Kinkhabwala Twitter Miami Dolphins will go without DeVante Parker in Week 1
Miami Dolphins will go without DeVante Parker in Week 1. Scratch Parker off the list for Week 1 plays and bump up Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola and even Albert Wilson
As reported by: The Phinsider Mike Gillislee Lands at #2 on the Depth Chart
It is an unofficial depth chart, but Mike Gillislee checks in at #2 behind Kamara. It is interesting because the Saints can be unorthodox at times with Running Back Usage, so perhaps Gillislee takes on an impactful role in Week 1. He deserves to be in consideration on non-PPR sites.
As reported by: Nick Undehill The Bucs' first depth chart of 2018 lists "DeSean Jackson or Chris Godwin" as the starter opposite Mike Evans.
The Bucs’ first depth chart of 2018 lists “DeSean Jackson or Chris Godwin” as the starter opposite Mike Evans. We’ve known this for a while and these types of depth charts are to be taken with a grain of salt. However it is nice to have some sort of confirmation that the talented Chris Godwin is trending in the right direction for Week 1.
As reported by: Jenna Laine Twitter