DFS Alerts
Say it Ain't So - A Seattle RB is Viable?
The group of Seattle running backs has been nothing short of a disaster all year long, so anyone with any semblance of a pulse is a threat to take over the workload. That just might be Mike Davis. He played on 73% of the offensive snaps last week against the Eagles, and he looked at least competent in the process, totaling 101 scrimmage yards and running downhill all game. The Seahawks have not had a runner like that all year. The Seahawks will struggle to move the ball through the air more this week in a very difficult matchup, meaning they might rely on Davis for another 20 touches again. At first look, he’s one of the better value plays of the week.
Shhhhhhh
Everyone is sleeping on Marquise Goodwin, and I am not exactly sure why. He is the de facto #1 wide receiver for the 49ers, and new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo clearly looked for him as the primary read on a lot of the passing plays a week ago. Goodwin snagged all eight of his targets for 99 receiving yards in the game, and he’s going to be heavily utilized as the season winds down. Houston’s defense is nowhere near a shut down unit, and I like Goodwin’s odds to break a big play or two against this secondary. There’s a lot of upside here.
Falling for the Trap Again?
Mike Evans was one of the highest owned wide receivers in Week 13, and boy was he a disappointment. Hey, in my blurb last week, I did at least say that I did not think he was a cash game play! From a GPP perspective, the good news is that his ownership will almost undoubtedly drop this week, and the matchup is golden against a Detroit defense that is very much slipping these days. They have given up 74 points over the last two weeks, and they allowed Joe Flacco to slice them up a week ago. A tough matchup with Darius Slay makes Evans risky once again, but the low ownership and upside are still tempting. Give him a peek in tournament formats.
Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, S Marcus Williams, and LT Terron Armstead are practicing Tuesday
New Orleans appears to be getting healthier as they head into their Thursday night showdown with the Falcons as all three players were given DNPs yesterday. Lattimore is dealing with an ankle injury which caused him to miss the past two games. He was still expected to play Week 13 but the team opted to be cautious with their star corner. On a short week, it’s possible they keep him sidelined for another week but his return today makes him questionable. Lattimore’s presence would be a downgrade for Julio Jones. The CB has earned PFF’s third-best coverage grade while holding opposing passers to the third-lowest rating (47.4).
Other tagged players: Julio Jones
Eli Manning confirmed as starter for Week 14
The Giants will give Manning his starting job back this weekend against the Cowboys. It’s a solid spot for QBs as Dallas has given up the ninth-most fantasy points to the position and ranks 26th in pass DVOA. With CB Orlando Scandrick expected to miss some time, Sterling Shepard should have a favorable matchup in the slot. He only picked up six targets from Geno Smith but he has a good shot to see the most looks on the team with Manning under center – he averaged 11 targets in the two games he played with Manning as the WR1 this season. Despite missing time due to injury, he remains the team leader in red zone targets (9) and he’s just one behind Evan Engram inside the ten-yard line (5). On top of that, he’s seventh among slot receivers in yards per route run when lined up inside (1.9, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Sterling Shepard Bengals S George Iloka suspended for Week 14
Iloka was charged with violently striking a defenseless receiver when he laid out Antonio Brown in the end zone last night. He has the ninth-best run-stop rate among safeties this season, so his absence could help Jordan Howard next weekend. The Bears RB has only averaged 13.3 touches per game over the past four weeks though and his snap share has also trended in the wrong direction while Chicago has been getting the other backs involved.
Other tagged players: Jordan Howard JuJu Smith-Schuster suspended for Week 14
The NFL gave the receiver a one-game ban for an illegal block he made on Vontaze Burfict last night. If he doesn’t win his appeal, he’ll miss Sunday night’s game against the Ravens. His absence would elevate Martavis Bryant to the WR2 role and provide Eli Rogers more snaps. Bryant has now seen six targets in each of the past two games – one without JuJu – and caught four passes in both. He’ll have a tough spot against one of the pass defenses in the league this weekend, but the Ravens will be without their top corner Jimmy Smith. Bryant will mostly line up across from Brandon Carr, PFF’s 69th cover corner. Rookie CB Marlon Humphrey will join Carr in the starting line up in place of Smith. He’s seen as many targets as Smith (40) in 57% of the snaps and he’s held receivers to fewer receptions (20 to 23) and yards (282 to 292). Similar to Smith, he hasn’t been charged with a touchdown and he’s picked off two passes (Smith has three). We’ll find out what he’s made of next weekend when he’s set to face Antonio Brown most of the game.
Other tagged players: Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers Bruce Ellington "doesn't look great" for Week 14
Ellington left Week 13 early with a hamstring injury and isn’t expected to play this weekend. With Braxton Miller and C.J. Fiedorowicz also forced from Houston’s last game with concussions and Will Fuller still sidelined, TE Stephen Anderson saw 12 targets and turned them into five catches for 79 yards and a score. The Texans are running out of people to throw the ball to; depending on how the injury situation shakes out, Anderson could be in line for another heavy workload against the 49ers this weekend. With all of their injury troubles at safety, San Francisco has struggled to defend the position recently, allowing the fifth-most PPR points to TEs over the past four weeks. Of course, DeAndre Hopkins will continue to pick up a massive workload no matter what – he saw 14 targets last game – and the 49ers are 27th in WR1 DVOA.
Broncos DE Derek Wolfe will likely be placed on IR
Wolfe is dealing with a neck injury and was told by doctors to rest it for the remainder of the season. Wolfe was a solid run defender this year, posting the 29th-best run-stop rate among interior defenders. While Denver boasted one of the best run defenses in the beginning of the year, they’ve faltered in recent weeks, allowing the fifth-most PPR points to RBs over the past four weeks, and they’ll be worse off without Wolfe. Next up, they get the Jets and their three-man committee. Bilal Powell out-touched Matt Forte 20-18 last weekend while Elijah McGuire handled five carries. The Jets ran a whopping 85 plays though and it’s doubtful they’ll be able to hit that number again, which would limit the RB touches. Since Forte returned to the lineup, none of the backs have played more than 45% of the offensive snaps. It’ll be hard to trust any of them to get enough volume in Week 14.
Antonio Brown active Week 13; S Mike Mitchell, and TE Vance McDonald inactive
Brown was questionable heading into the Steeler’s Monday night clash with the Bengals. He was reportedly favoring the toe during warmups and was moving “gingerly.” Ian Rapoport believes he could be limited “a bit.” The receiver has been on a tear the past two games, piling up 20 receptions, 313 yards, and five touchdowns. He’ll try to battle through his toe sprain to keep his heater going. He’ll primarily see William Jackson, who allowed the fewest fantasy points per route defended heading into Week 13 (0.13) and a 42% catch rate (per PFF). As a unit, the Bengals are ninth in WR1 DVOA and they’ve allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to WRs.
Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, S Marcus Williams, and LT Terron Armstead collect DNPs Monday
Lattimore is dealing with an ankle sprain, causing him to be in and out of practice last week. He was still expected to play yesterday but the team opted to be cautious with their star corner. On a short week, it’s possible they keep him sidelined for another week. We’ll learn more tomorrow when the Saints actually hold a practice. With New Orleans set to take on Julio Jones and the Falcons Thursday night, Lattimore’s status will be an important one to monitor.
Colts CB Pierre Desir placed on IR
Desir was starting at corner for the Colts in place of Vontae Davis. After tearing a muscle in his shoulder Sunday, he was placed on IR though, which leaves the team even thinner in their already-weak secondary. Their best remaining DB, Rashaan Melvin, was sidelined in Week 13 and Blake Bortles tore them up, completing 74% of his passes for 309 yards and two scores. Melvin isn’t expected back this week, leaving them with Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore on the outside, who would rank 99th and 111th in PFF coverage grades if they qualified. On top of that, the Colts are 29th in adjusted sack rate and generally struggle to apply pressure on QBs. It’s going to be incredibly hard to trust Nathan Peterman and his pass-catchers if he starts in place of Tyrod Taylor (knee) but this matchup is worlds apart from his debut against the Chargers.
Other tagged players: Nathan Peterman Falcons CB Desmond Trufant expected to play Week 14; LG Andy Levitre ruled out
Atlanta’s best CB cleared the concussion protocol ahead of their Thursday night showdown with the Saints. He’ll primarily see Ted Ginn as he stays on the left side. The receiver is a low-volume boom-or-bust option. Considering he has the tougher matchup than Michael Thomas and the Falcons are allowing the most receptions (6.5/g) and third-most receiving touchdowns to RBs (0.33/g), it’ll be difficult for Ginn to boom. It’s one of the best spots for Alvin Kamara, who leads RBs in yards per route run (2.65, per PFF), and has caught at least five passes for five straight weeks while scoring three receiving TDs during that stretch. Thomas continued his consistent play last weekend, hauling in five catches for 70 yards and he ended his seven-game scoring drought. He shouldn’t have much of a problem leading the team in targets again. Levitre is dealing with a partially torn triceps. He’s PFF’s 16th-ranked guard this year and he’s allowed the eighth-fewest pressures at his position (12). With the Saints and the third-ranked defense in adjusted sack rate headed to town, Levitre’s absence could hurt quarterback Matt Ryan.
Other tagged players: Ted Ginn, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara Rob Gronkowski will be suspended one game
Gronk concussed Bills CB Tre’Davious White on a late hit. Gronk will appeal the punishment but it’s hard to imagine the NFL reversing course on this one. If it stands, he’ll miss New England’s Week 14 game against the Dolphins. Dwayne Allen hasn’t done much all season and didn’t even log a target in the lone game Gronkowski missed this year. It’s possible Chris Hogan (shoulder) returns this weekend. If he doesn’t, Brandin Cooks could be looking at a monster target share and Miami ranks 29th in WR1 DVOA.
Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan Rishard Matthews expected to play Week 14
Head coach Mike Mularkey believes Matthews (hamstring) will return from a two-game absence this weekend against the Cardinals. The receiver would be 13th in the league in yards per route run (1.91) if he qualified but the lack of plays the team is running will limit his upside. Marcus Mariota threw just 23 times in Week 13 and they’ve averaged the fifth-fewest passing plays per game this season (31). Fortunately for them, the Cardinals are allowing the seventh-most plays per game this year (65.7) and could provide a little boost to this offense. It’s possible Matthews draws Patrick Peterson’s shadow coverage though. Heading into Week 13, Peterson had allowed the fewest fantasy points per route defended this year (0.13) and the lowest catch rate (41%, per PFF). If that’s the case, it would help Corey Davis.
Other tagged players: Corey Davis