DFS Alerts
Rishard Matthews inactive Week 12
Matthews injured his hamstring in practice yesterday and won’t be able to play Sunday. His absence will open up opportunities for Corey Davis. The rookie receiver has had some efficiency problems this year, hauling in just 46% of his targets, but even with Matthews in the lineup, he’s still seen plenty of looks when healthy. He’s posted two games with 10 targets and picked up seven last week against a strong Steelers pass defense. He’ll have a much better matchup this week against a vulnerable Colts pass defense allowing the second-most touchdowns (1.5/g) and seventh-most PPR points to WRs. On top of that, Davis will mostly avoid their best corner, Rashaan Melvin, as he only lines up in Melvin’s area 34% of the time. Instead, he’ll mostly see Pierre Desir, who’s allowed two touchdowns in four starts and 1.73 yards per cover snap in those games (per PFF). Taywan Taylor will operate as their WR3
Other tagged players: Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor
Buccaneers DE Robert Ayers and CB Vernon Hargreaves officially inactive Week 12
Ayers hasn’t been able to practice all week as he deals with a concussion. It’s a big loss for the Bucs defense as Ayers is PFF’s 12th-ranked edge defender this season. William Gholston is ready to return and he’ll mix in with Ryan Russell and Will Clarke in place of Ayers, all of whom represent notable downgrades in pass rushing productivity. Tampa Bay already ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate (per FO), so the loss of their top performer will bode well for Matt Ryan. On top of that, the Falcons offensive line has posted the ninth-best pass-blocking efficiency rate (per PFF). Ayers is a well-rounded player and he’s posted the ninth-best run stop rate among edge defenders. His absence should open things up for Tevin Coleman if Devonta Freeman (concussion) is sidelined again. TB has given up the 11th-most PPR points to RBs with Ayers playing in every game so far this year. Hargreaves’ absence will leave Mohamed Sanu with an even better matchup in the slot. He’ll likely see Ryan Smith, PFF’s 96th-ranked cover corner. Robert McClain played inside last week but he’ll likely head back outside to defend Julio Jones. McClain has allowed 0.3 fantasy points per route defended and an 79% catch rate this season (per PFF). While Jones leads the Falcons with 11 red zone targets and seven inside the ten-yard line, he’s only caught three passes inside the 20 and scored just once. Sanu has turned five looks inside the ten into four touchdowns.
Other tagged players: Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu Mike Gillislee, Matt Slater, and CB Eric Rowe inactive Week 12
Gillislee is a healthy scratch while the other two were questionable heading into Week 12. Dion Lewis appears to be the best bet among the Patriots backs this afternoon, especially if New England gets out to a big lead – they’re currently 16.5-point favorites. Rowe’s absence will leave Jarvis Landry with Jonathan Jones most of the game. The slot CB has allowed the third-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.7, per PFF).
Other tagged players: New England Patriots, Jarvis Landry, Dion Lewis Albert Wilson active Week 12, LB Dee Ford inactive
Wilson will make his return from a two-game absence due to a knee injury. He isn’t expected to a have a huge role though, as Alex Smith will likely focus on Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and his backs.
Other tagged players: Kansas City Chiefs Ron Rivera: Greg Olsen will "ideally" play half of Carolina's snaps Week 12
Rivera told reporters earlier this week that he would use Olsen “judiciously.” To him, that means about half of the offensive snaps today. While that isn’t great for his outlook, they’ll likely try to limit his blocking snaps more than anything else, so he could still run a healthy number of routes this afternoon against the Jets. He should benefit from Kelvin Benjamin’s departure. Back in 2015, Olsen averaged 14.3 PPR points per game while Benjamin was injured and he’s averaged 11.7 PPR points over the past two seasons with the receiver. The Jets aren’t strong against tight ends; they’re 23rd in DVOA and giving up the fourth-most touchdowns (0.6/g) and eighth-most PPR points to the position. Unfortunately, Olsen won’t see his normal workload but he’s in a spot to produce with his limited opportunities and the Panthers could make a point to use him in the red zone while limiting snaps elsewhere on the field.
Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey will play Week 12
Despite Ramsey saying he wouldn’t play today after he suffered a hand injury in practice, the CB will suit up this afternoon. The CB is PFF’s fifth-ranked cover corner and he’s held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest passer rating (51.6). His presence will make things very tough for Arizona’s outside receivers, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson, and quarterback Blaine Gabbert. As a unit, the Jaguars are first in: yards per attempt (5.9), passer rating (64.5), sacks (40), and fantasy points allowed to QBs (9.92/g) and WRs (21.42/g) alike. Outside CB A.J. Bouye is PFF’s seventh-ranked cover corner and slot man Aaron Colvin is 31st. Bouye has held receivers to a 42% catch rate and passers to a 30.6 rating while Colvin has posted the sixth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.83, per PFF) when in the slot and he hasn’t been charged with a single touchdown. Gabbert will likely continue to lean on Larry Fitzgerald, who’s accounted for 31% of the team’s targets over the past three weeks but Colvin presents his toughest challenge since Carson Palmer went down.
Rapoport: Josh Reynolds will "try to fill Woods' role"
With Robert Woods out, one of the biggest question marks heading into Sunday was how the Rams would replace him. While they’re expected to employ a bit of a committee approach, they’ll reportedly feature Josh Reynolds the most against the Saints. With outside CBs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley out, Reynolds will have a good matchup against P.J. Williams and De’Vante Harris. He’ll likely see Harris the most, who has earned our lowest CB rating in our Week 12 tool and given up the most fantasy points per route defended (0.63, per PFF). Although it’s an appealing spot and he’s expected to be the featured wideout in the committee, the rookie, who’s only pulled in one reception in his career, remains a risky bet.
Danny Amendola will play Week 12, Martellus Bennett to be inactive
Amendola was questionable heading into Sunday with a knee issue. With Chris Hogan sidelined, he could be in line for more snaps and targets against the Dolphins this afternoon – he saw eight last week against the Raiders. While slot corner Bobby McCain hasn’t produced strong numbers this season, Miami’s outside CBs have been worse. Xavien Howard, who will primarily guard Brandin Cooks, currently has PFF’s second-worst cover grade in the NFL. With Cooks earning our best wide receiver grade among those playing this week, our WR/CB matchup tool gives Cooks the second-best rating score. He’s picked up 20 targets over the past two weeks without Hogan and should be in line for a heavy workload again. Hogan has been Brady’s favorite weapon in scoring position, so his absence should provide Rob Gronkowski more looks in scoring position. The tight end has received four red zone targets over the past two games but wasn’t able to find the end zone during that stretch. The Dolphins have struggled to contain tight ends this season; they’re 25th in DVOA while they’ve given up the fourth-most touchdowns (0.6/g) and the fifth-most PPR points to the position.
Other tagged players: Martellus Bennett, Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey expected to play Week 12
Ramsey jammed his hand in practice this week and told reporters he wouldn’t play. Apparently, his quote surprised the team as he’s expected to suit up today barring a setback. The CB is PFF’s fifth-ranked cover corner and he’s held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest passer rating (51.6). His presence will make things very tough for Arizona’s outside receivers, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson, and quarterback Blaine Gabbert. As a unit, the Jaguars are first in: yards per attempt (5.9), passer rating (64.5), sacks (40), and fantasy points allowed to QBs (9.92/g) and WRs (21.42/g) alike. Outside CB A.J. Bouye is PFF’s seventh-ranked cover corner and slot man Aaron Colvin is 31st. Bouye has held receivers to a 42% catch rate and passers to a 30.6 rating while Colvin has posted the sixth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.83, per PFF) when in the slot and he hasn’t been charged with a single touchdown. Gabbert will likely continue to lean on Larry Fitzgerald, who’s accounted for 31% of the team’s targets over the past three weeks but Colvin presents his toughest challenge since Carson Palmer went down.
Other tagged players: Larry Fitzgerald, Jaron Brown, J.J. Nelson, Blaine Gabbert Will Fuller officially ruled out for MNF
Fuller will miss his second straight game, setting Bruce Ellington up to once again act as the #2 WR. Ellington picked up seven targets last week while playing nearly all of the offensive snaps, and that type of usage figures to continue here against a tougher Baltimore secondary. Given how cheap he still is across the industry, Ellington is a viable punt play even while the Texans as a whole aren’t an appealing offense. Braxton Miller will continue to operate as the 3rd receiver while Fuller is out, and while he’ll be on the field more often than not, he’s about the 5th option for Tom Savage.
As reported by: Jamison Hensley Other tagged players: Bruce Ellington, Braxton Miller
Jimmy Smith, Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley all listed as questionable, but expected to play Monday
The Ravens are expected to have all three guys healthy on Monday night, which bodes well for the outlook of the BAL D/ST with Tom Savage under center and the Texans missing their second-in-command at WR, Will Fuller. Baltimore’s defense has been lighting it up of late and they are once again one of the top plays on the board at the position, although they are only an option on prime-time slates.
As reported by: Jeff Zrebiec Jacoby Brissett has cleared the concussion protocol and will start Sunday
He was cleared by an independent neurologist on Friday, so this was expected. He’s going to take on a Tennessee defense that he threw for 212 yards and a TD against the Titans on the road back in Week 6. Marcus Mariota has the better fantasy outlook of the two QBs in this contest and spending the extra cap for his services – considering the price difference between the two isn’t much – is the better route to take.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Harry Douglas to be activated for tomorrow's game, making it more likely that Rishard Matthews doesn't play
Douglas being activated does not bode well for Matthew’s chances of suiting up, although he hasn’t yet been downgraded beyond questionable. Assuming he’s out, Corey Davis becomes a stronger play while Eric Decker also gets a slight uptick in value. Delanie Walker’s outlook would also improve a bit, but it’s worth noting he had his lowest yardage total of the season (17) on eight targets when these teams met earlier in the year.
As reported by: Paul Kuharsky Other tagged players: Harry Douglas, Corey Davis, Eric Decker Kelvin Benjamin not traveling with the Bills, officially ruled out for Sunday
Benjamin will not travel with the Bills and has been ruled out for Sunday’s game with the Chiefs. Benjamin’s absence should open up targets for Jordan Matthews – the slot receiver is in a seemingly terrific spot against the struggling Steven Nelson, who’s allowed 1.6 yards per cover snap (sixth-most if he qualified, per PFF) and two TDs in the slot since returning in Week 8. Zay Jones should benefit as well and should mostly avoid Marcus Peters. Last week, Phillip Gaines was the KC’s third CB and played outside. He’s given up 1.58 yards/cover snap while the other potential options, Kenneth Acker and Terrance Mitchell, have been worse – 1.75 and 2.15, respectively – and Mitchell has been charged with the 4th-most TDs (5) despite being benched after Week 7. Although Jones struggled to catch the ball in his first six games, hauling in just 22% of his targets, he’s reeled in 68% over the past three weeks. As a result, his yards per route run rate jumped from 0.43 over the first six to 1.82 over the last three (per PFF), which would be good for 19th in the NFL this season. Jones has run 69% of his routes in the slot or on the opposite side of Peters, so he should have an exploitable spot most of the game. As a unit, KC is giving up the 2nd-most PPR points to WRs. Jones is available for $4.0k on DraftKings this week. While Charles Clay is the team’s leading receiver, he could have a challenging day at the office Sunday. The Chiefs are holding TEs to the third-fewest PPR points this season and Clay has only scored one touchdown on the road since joining the Bills in 2015 (18 games).
As reported by: Bills PR Other tagged players: Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones, Charles Clay My Cash Game Tight End On DraftKings
Jack Doyle is tied for first amongst all tight ends with a 25% market share of targets. Yet on DraftKings, he is priced as the eighth most expensive tight end at $4,500. That 25% market share of targets is also the highest amongst all Colts pass catchers, which gives Doyle a very nice floor going against a Tennessee defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA. They are much better against the tight end position (12th), but that didn’t stop Doyle from dropping a 7/50/1 on them in Week 6 en route to 17 DraftKings points. I am uncomfortable going too far up or down the pricing spectrum at tight end in my cash game lineup on DraftKings, which makes Doyle an easy plug and play at his current price tag.
