DFS Alerts

Paxton Lynch will miss 2-4 weeks; Trevor Siemian will start

Lynch is dealing with a high ankle sprain and he’ll be sidelined for a few weeks. Siemian tossed two touchdowns in relief on Sunday and he’ll look to exploit another favorable matchup this weekend against the Dolphins. Miami has given up the second-most touchdowns (22) and picked off the third-fewest passes (4) which bodes well for Siemian, who threw ten interceptions across seven starts this year.

Mike Davis and CB Shaquill Griffin will play Week 13

Seattle is hoping Davis can provide the spark their backfield desperately needs. He picked up 59 yards in Week 11 prior to exiting early with a groin injury, which led the group. The Seahawks provided Eddie Lacy 20 touches in Week 12 and he returned the favor by giving them 3.05 yards per touch. That likely means Davis will get a shot to establish the hot hand this weekend. Unfortunately, it’ll be against one of the best run defenses in the league as the Seahawks are set to host the Eagles. Their defense has limited RBs to the third-fewest PPR points while ranking first in adjusted line yards (2.51, per FO). Griffin will return to the lineup and likely replace Jeremy Lane. While Griffin is PFF’s 61st-ranked corner, he’ll be an improvement over Lane, who’s currently 114th out of 118 qualifiers. Griffin will primarily see Alshon Jeffery.

Week 12 injury roundup

Amari Cooper exited Sunday’s game after suffering a concussion while trying to pull down a high pass over the middle of the field. The injury looked severe and it seems like there’s a good chance he misses some time. If he ends up sitting out Week 13 it would mark the first absence of his career. Michael Crabtree should pick up a target boost if he’s not suspended for fighting. In the event both are out, Seth Roberts, Johnny Holton, and Cordarelle Patterson would be the top three receivers and tight end Jared Cook should be heavily involved. Cook was disappointing yesterday, hauling in just one of five targets for a single yard, although he did have a touchdown grab overturned and ruled incomplete. He’ll have another great matchup in Week 13 with the Giants, whose defense has allowed the most PPR points to the position. They’ve given up the 11th-most to WRs and may lose their best corner, Janoris Jenkins, for the season.

Greg Olsen played 21 snaps prior to re-aggravating his surgically-repaired foot. He said he hopes to play Week 13 but he’ll visit some doctors to figure out the proper course of action. If he ends up playing, he’ll likely be limited again as the Panthers will continue to be cautious with him. That makes him a very risky bet when the Panthers visit the Saints this weekend. He saw four targets against the Jets but only hauled in one for ten scoreless yards. He could’ve had a bigger day if Newton didn’t sail one over his head while he was wide open in the end zone. Devin Funchess will likely remain his go-to receiver and he’ll target Christian McCaffrey plenty. Funchess could have a great spot if Saints CBs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are out again. New Orleans is allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs and McCaffrey went off on them back in Week 3 for 101 receiving yards on nine catches.

Damien Williams dislocated his shoulder Sunday and isn’t expected to play Week 13. He and Kenyan Drake have combined for 22.5 touches per game since the Jay Ajayi trade. With Senorise Perry in the concussion protocol, Drake could pick up almost all of Williams’ vacated snaps and touches this weekend. Unfortunately, it will come against the Broncos, whose defense is allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards to RBs while ranking third in adjusted line yards heading into Week 12 (per FO). They appear to be exploitable through the air though, and they’ve given up the most receiving touchdowns to the position (0.55/g). The Raiders took advantage of that vulnerability with Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington combining for an 8/8/79/1 line. Over the past four weeks, Drake and Williams have combined for 6.0 receptions per game. Drake seems to be a better option in full PPR formats.

Doug Martin suffered a concussion Sunday. Jacquizz Rodgers ended up leading the backfield with nine touches for 37 yards. If Martin misses any time, Rodgers could split early down work with Peyton Barber while Charles Sims handles the passing-down work. If Martin plays, he could maintain the featured role but he’s returned just 3.2 yards per carry this season and he’s only scored twice. On the defensive side of the ball, S T.J. Ward is also in the concussion protocol. He’s PFF’s 68th-ranked cover safety among 84 qualifiers but he’s 17th in run defense. He and Chris Conte split time at safety and they complement each other well; Conte has earned the 75th run defense grade and the 21st in coverage. If Ward is out, Conte would likely take over a full-time role against the Packers on Sunday.

C.J. Beathard is dealing with a knee injury he believes to be a bruise. Jimmy Garoppolo entered the game in his place and promptly threw a touchdown pass. It’s possible the 49ers keep Garoppolo under center this weekend against the Bears. Carson Wentz tore Chicago’s pass defense up with three passing touchdowns in the first half. In a limited sample – 65 pass attempts across 18 appearances – Garoppolo has completed 67.7% of his NFL passes and returned 7.4 yards per attempt with six scores and zero interceptions. The Bears have generated the third-fewest interceptions this season (4) while giving up the seventh-highest completion percentage (65.8%) and 15th-most yards per attempt (7.2).

Paxton Lynch is considered day-to-day with an ankle injury. He wasn’t playing well prior to the injury, throwing for 41 scoreless yards and a pick. Trevor Siemian replaced him and tossed two touchdown balls. Denver’s quarterback situation continues to be a mess. Even if Lynch is healthy, Siemian could get the nod this weekend against the Dolphins. It’s another fantastic matchup for quarterbacks – Miami has given up the second-most touchdowns (22) and picked off the third-fewest passes (4) – but it’ll be a little hard to trust any of the Broncos QBs to exploit the spot. On defense, DL Domata Peko and DE Derek Wolfe both left the game early. Peko suffered an MCL sprain and will undergo an MRI to assess the severity of the injury. Wolfe is dealing with a neck injury which can be very tricky. Both players are among the top 34 interior defenders in PFF’s run defense grading out of 121 qualifiers. If neither can play, it would be an upgrade for Kenyan Drake, who’s set to take on a workhorse role with Damien Williams (shoulder) not expected to suit up and Senorise Perry in the concussion protocol.

Mike Williams was diagnosed with a bone bruise on his knee after exiting Thursday’s game early. Coach Mike Lynn suggested Williams’ status will mainly depend on pain tolerance, so it’s possible he doesn’t miss any time. He’s still playing a part-time though. The only time he’s picked up more than 42% of the snaps was when Travis Benjamin left Week 11 early with an injury.

Falcons CB Desmond Trufant went down with a concussion and CB Brian Poole exited Week 12 with a back injury. These injuries could leave the Falcons dangerously thin against a hot Vikings passing attack in Week 13. Poole covers the slot where Adam Thielen has been tearing things up. He’s caught at least five passes in every game this season and he’s picked up double-digit targets in five of the last six while scoring three times during that stretch. He’s third in the league in yards per route run (2.62, per PFF) while Stefon Diggs is ninth (2.08). Diggs primarily lines up on Trufant’s side of the field.

Colts CB Rashaan Melvin, PFF’s 15th-ranked cover corner, left Week 12 with a hand injury and didn’t return. He’s the best corner on the team by a mile, so if he misses any time, it’ll be a huge blow to their already-weak pass defense. They visit the Jaguars in Week 13, which sets up a much better spot for Marqise Lee, who was held to a 1/13/0 line under Patrick Peterson’s shadow. Dede Westbrook ended up leading the squad with ten targets. Even if Allen Hurns returns, Westbrook could remain very involved in the passing game.

Lions S Tavon Wilson will undergo season-ending surgery after injuring his shoulder last Thursday. He hadn’t earned high marks this season, grading out as PFF’s 78th safety among 90 qualifiers.

Jaguars LB Telvin Smith has entered the concussion protocol. He’s currently PFF’s top-graded linebacker in run defense and he leads his position in run-stop rate. If he’s out, it’s an upgrade for Colts RB Frank Gore but the old back is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season and he’s scored three times.

Saints LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a hamstring injury. He’s PFF’s 40th-ranked tackle and he’s played a major part in the Saints offensive line’s success this year. They’re third in pass blocking efficiency and first in adjusted line yards (5.45). His presence would be very useful against a Carolina defense currently fourth in adjusted sack rate and tenth in adjusted line yards.

Bears LG Josh Sitton is in the concussion protocol. Chicago hosts the 49ers this weekend, whose defense is 23rd in adjusted line yards and 24th in adjusted sack rate. Sitton grades out as PFF’s sixth-ranked guard this season.

Keelan Cole will start in place of Allen Hurns Week 12

Cole served as the number two receiver last week with rookie Dede Westbrook working in as the third; both players received six targets and hauled in three catches. Considering it was Westbrook’s first game since being activated off the IR, it’s possible he picks up a bigger workload this weekend with Hurns out. The Jaguars visit the Cardinals on Sunday which could leave Marqise Lee under Patrick Peterson’s shadow. Although DeAndre Hopkins was able to get the best of Peterson on several plays, including a touchdown grab, it’s hard to trust Lee to replicate that type of success. Cole would see Tyrann Mathieu in the slot on three-wide sets and have the best spot of the group – Mathieu is the 69th cover corner and he’s given up the ninth-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.31). Although a Peterson shadow would provide Westbrook a relatively better matchup with Tramon Williams, it’ll still be challenging. Williams has earned PFF’s 15th-best cover grade while he’s limited receivers to a 48% catch rate, 0.75 yards per cover snaps, which would be ninth if he qualified, and he hasn’t given up a TD. Cole should see Williams often when he’s lined up on the outside.

Lance Dunbar inactive Week 12

Rookie Justin Davis will be Todd Gurley’s backup this afternoon with Dunbar and Malcolm Brown both out. Gurley has a nice spot against a Saints defense giving up the third-most yards per carry this season (4.7) and the eighth-most receiving yards to RBs (49.4/g). Gurley has averaged 3.8 receptions per game with 11.2 yards per catch and three receiving touchdowns. He should be able to continue to rack up fantasy points in both phases of the offense regardless of game flow.

Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey active Week 12

Ramsey is PFF’s fifth-ranked cover corner and he’s held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest passer rating (51.6). His presence will make things very tough for Arizona’s outside receivers, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson, and quarterback Blaine Gabbert. As a unit, the Jaguars are first in: yards per attempt (5.9), passer rating (64.5), sacks (40), and fantasy points allowed to QBs (9.92/g) and WRs (21.42/g) alike. Outside CB A.J. Bouye is PFF’s seventh-ranked cover corner and slot man Aaron Colvin is 31st. Bouye has held receivers to a 42% catch rate and passers to a 30.6 rating while Colvin has posted the sixth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.83, per PFF) when in the slot and he hasn’t been charged with a single touchdown. Gabbert will likely continue to lean on Larry Fitzgerald, who’s accounted for 31% of the team’s targets over the past three weeks but Colvin presents his toughest challenge since Carson Palmer went down.

Emmanuel Sanders active Week 12; Jeff Heuerman out

In three appearances last year, Paxton Lynch leaned on Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders a ton, sending 60% of his passes in their direction. He showed a preference for Sanders, looking his way 9.7 times per game compared to 7.0 for Thomas. Lynch will have a friendly spot for his first start; the Raiders rank dead last in pass DVOA and they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to QBs and fourth-most PPR points to WRs over the past four weeks. On the season, they’ve allowed the highest completion percentage (72.3) and passer rating (113.3) while giving up the third-most yards per attempt (8.0). It’ll be hard to trust Lynch but the spot warrants some GPP consideration at his price – $4.4k on DraftKings, $6.2k on FanDuel. Sanders is cheaper than Thomas on both sites – $5.2k on DK and $6.3k on FD.

Jimmy Graham, Thomas Rawls, CB Jeremy Lane, LB Bobby Wagner, LT Duane Brown, LG Luke Joeckel active Week 12; Mike Davis, CB Shaquill Griffin out

With Davis down, J.D. McKissic, who’s typically been limited to a pass-catching role, was the primary back last week and finished with 12 touches and 74% of the snaps while Eddie Lacy saw three touches and 9% of the offensive plays. Thomas Rawls will return to the running back rotation with Davis sidelined but it could be McKissic’s backfield against the 49ers on Sunday. While Seattle’s running back group has been completely miserable this season, RBs couldn’t have a much better spot and it appears as though McKissic will see a workload large enough to exploit the matchup. The 49ers are giving up the most PPR points per game to RBs while allowing the most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns to the position. At just $3.7k on DraftKings, McKissic looks like a solid value; he currently projects as our top RB in points-per-dollars but the uncertainty surrounding Seattle’s rotation means he’ll carry plenty of risk. Graham will suit up despite being listed as questionable. He leads the league in red zone targets (22) and looks inside the ten-yard line (13). He’s converted six of his passes inside the ten into touchdowns. Injuries continue to hurt the Seahawks on the defensive side of the ball with Griffin joining S Kam Chancellor, CB Richard Sherman on the sidelines. Jeremy Lane and Byron Maxwell will man the outside corner positions, both of whom have earned bottom-ten PFF cover grades among all CBs.

Trent Taylor active week 12; Victor Bolden, RT Trent Brown, and S Adrian Colbert out

Taylor will likely take back his slot role and replace Kendrick Bourne as San Francisco’s WR3. He’s only averaged 2.7 receptions per game this season though, so he probably won’t make much of an impact coming off an injury. With Colbert out and Eric Reid playing linebacker, the 49ers are running out of people to put at safety. While they’ve held tight ends to the ninth-fewest PPR points this season, that was in large part due to Jaquiski Tartt’s terrific performance. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed the 11th-most PPR points and four TDs to the position, opening up a great spot for the league’s leader in red zone targets, Jimmy Graham (22). The lack of help over the top bodes well for Russell Wilson, who’s attempted the second-most passes 20+ yards downfield (59) and has posted the 10th-best passer rating on such throws. His favorite downfield target is Doug Baldwin, whom he’s thrown 17 deep passes to, but Tyler Lockett (13) and Paul Richardson (11) aren’t far behind. Baldwin will battle K’Waun Williams in the slot, who’s allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per route defended among CBs expected to play in Week 12 (0.38, per PFF) and he’s given up a 79% catch rate.

Dolphins DE William Hayes inactive Week 12

Hayes is PFF’s fourth-ranked edge defender in run defense and he would have the second-best run-stop rate at his position if he qualified. He typically rotates in for about half of Miami’s defensive snaps, so his absence will be a nice upgrade for Dion Lewis, who’s already set to benefit from Mike Gillislee’s absence and positive game flow. The Dolphins other edge defenders, Cameron Wake, Andre Branch, and Charles Harris all rank 80th or below in run defense grading (per PFF). As a unit, Miami is 16th in adjusted line yards with Hayes playing in every game so far.

Bengals CB Darqueze Dennard active Week 12; John Ross inactive

Corey Coleman will see Dennard the most. He was impressive last week, pulling down 6-of-10 targets for 80 yards against Jacksonville, whose pass defense is the best in football. The Bengals are 14th in pass DVOA but eighth against WR1s but they’ve conceded the fifth-fewest PPR points to receivers. Dre Kirkpatrick will be the other outside CB today. Both he and Dennard appear to be exploitable defenders. They’ve allowed three touchdowns each and rank 44th and 32nd in yards per cover snap, respectively (per PFF). With the sheer lack of talent around him, Coleman should pick up plenty of targets and he’s only $4.3k on DraftKings.

Panthers CB Captain Munnerlyn inactive Week 12, C Ryan Kalil and C Tyler Larsen active

Munnerlyn’s absence will make things easier in the slot for Jermain Kearse, who’s coming off an eight-target game. He hasn’t topped 38 yards over the past four weeks though, and he’s only scored once during that stretch. Kalil will be active but Larsen will draw the start. He’s PFF’s 13th-ranked center but he’s been much more effective in pass protection than run blocking. Fortunately for the Panthers, the Jets pass rush hasn’t been very effective this season; they’re 21st in adjusted sack rate. They’ve also given up the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs this season (20.4/g). Cam Newton has averaged 69.2 yards on the ground over the past five games while scoring twice and narrowly missing the 100-yard bonus by five yards last time out.

Jordan Matthews and Charles Clay active Week 12

Kelvin Benjamin’s absence could open up targets for Matthews. The slot receiver would have a seemingly terrific spot against the struggling Steven Nelson, who’s allowed 1.6 yards per cover snap (sixth-most if he qualified, per PFF) and two TDs in the slot since returning in Week 8. Zay Jones would benefit as well and should mostly avoid Marcus Peters. Last week, Phillip Gaines was the KC’s third CB and played outside. He’s given up 1.58 yards/cover snap while the other potential options, Kenneth Acker and Terrance Mitchell, have been worse – 1.75 and 2.15, respectively – and Mitchell has been charged with the 4th-most TDs (5) despite being benched after Week 7. Although Jones struggled to catch the ball in his first six games, hauling in just 22% of his targets, he’s reeled in 68% over the past three weeks. As a result, his yards per route run rate jumped from 0.43 over the first six to 1.82 over the last three (per PFF), which would be good for 19th in the NFL this season. Jones has run 69% of his routes in the slot or on the opposite side of Peters, so he should have an exploitable spot most of the game. As a unit, KC is giving up the 2nd-most PPR points to WRs. Jones is available for $4.0k on DraftKings this week. While Charles Clay is the team’s leading receiver, he could have a challenging day at the office Sunday. The Chiefs are holding TEs to the third-fewest PPR points this season and Clay has only scored one touchdown on the road since joining the Bills in 2015 (18 games), in part due to Tyrod Taylor’s poor road splits.

Dontrelle Inman, Dion Sims, DE Akiem Hicks, LB Pernell McPhee, and DE Mitch Unrein active Week 12; Josh Bellamy won't play

Hicks is PFF’s eighth-ranked interior defended in run defense and has the tenth-best run-stop rate at his position. Fellow interior defender Unrein is graded seventh in the area and has the third-best run-stop rate. Their presence will make things difficult for the Eagles’ stable of backs. Philly as given four different running backs touches over the past two games, making them difficult to predict. Jay Ajayi has played well since joing the team and could start seeing a bigger workload. Bellamy (concussion) has been operating as Chicago’s third receiver; his absence could elevate Tre McBride to that role this weekend.

Matt Forte active Week 12

The Jets backfield appears to be one to avoid this afternoon. Forte could return to the featured role but his knee injury could limit him. Meanwhile, Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire should also work in, likely preventing any of them from picking up enough volume to be appealing fantasy assets.