DFS Alerts
Heavily Favored QB Could Put Up Big Numbers Sunday
Detroit has the second-highest projected point total this week at 27.75 point at home against Cleveland, and although the 11-point spread creates some concern that the Lions might run the ball nursing a lead, there is a good chance Detroit will attack with the passing game. Cleveland has had difficulties defending the pass this season, ranking 21st with 7.4 passing yards allowed per attempt, and 29th in completion percentage allowed at 68.8%. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford ranks fifth in the league with 276.5 passing yards per game this season, and has added 14 passing touchdowns, fourth-most among QBs who will be suiting up this weekend. At only $8,200 on FanDuel and $6,800 on DraftKings (ranking sixth and fourth, respectively among quarterbacks), Stafford could be a point-per-dollar bargain this Sunday.
Seahawks S Earl Thomas ruled out for Week 10, Paul Richardson will be a game-time decision
Thomas is dealing with a hamstring issue and the short week did him no favors. The team has decided to keep him sidelined tonight to afford him some extra time to rehab the injury. His absence will make things easier for Drew Stanton but the quarterback will still have a tough spot. In his first start of the season, he only completed 50% of his passes for 201 yards against a poor San Francisco pass defense currently ranked 27th in DVOA and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. Seattle has held passers to the tenth-fewest fantasy points, albeit with Thomas as a starter in seven of those games. Richardson is questionable with a groin injury but according to Ian Rapoport, the team is optimistic. If he plays, he may end up seeing more of Tramon Williams coverage than Patrick Peterson while Lockett may not be so lucky as he runs more routes on Peterson’s side and it’s unlikely Richardson draws shadow coverage. Peterson has posted the best cover snaps per reception rate in the league (31.6), the third-best yards per cover snap (0.5), and an incredible 33% catch rate. Although Justin Bethel’s replacement, Williams, has allowed a higher yards per cover snap rate (1.16), he’s posted a 47% catch rate. Doug Baldwin has the best matchup of the group against PFF’s 83rd cover corner, Tyrann Mathieu, who’s allowed the eighth-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.36) and the seventh-most receptions (23). Russell Wilson has been firing Baldwin’s way a ton over the past three weeks, peppering him with 10-12 targets each game. There doesn’t seem to be much reason for that trend to end given the matchups the receivers will face tonight. Further pushing Baldwin’s outlook is Wilson’s aggressiveness over the past few weeks. He leads the league in deep passes by a wide margin since Week 8 with 20 attempts while Matt Stafford is second with 13. Baldwin has attracted six of those, the fourth-most in the league. On the season, he has the seventh-best deep-passing catch rate (40%) and the 12th-best yards per route run. Teammate Lockett is second over the past three weeks with eight looks 20+ yards downfield but if he’s stuck with Peterson, those looks could shift in Baldwin’s direction.
As reported by: Josina Anderson
Jets CB Morris Claiborne is practicing Thursday
Claiborne was inactive last week and sidelined yesterday. His return indicates he could return this weekend against the Buccaneers. Fortunately for him, he won’t have to deal with Mike Evans (suspension). Instead, he’ll likely chase the speedy DeSean Jackson around the field, who runs a 4.35 40-yard dash while Claiborne clocked a 4.5. The last time Claiborne tried to handle a guy with that type of speed was Brandin Cooks and the receiver finished with six catches for 93 yards. Outside of that game, Claiborne has been solid for the Jets – he’s posted an impressive 50% catch rate, 0.73 yards per cover snap, and he hasn’t conceded a touchdown yet. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t one to shy away from tough matchups though, he’ll likely challenge the cornerback all game by sending plenty of targets Jackson’s way and the receiver may have the wheels to beat Claiborne.
Other tagged players: DeSean Jackson Matt Forte isn't practicing Thursday
Forte’s surgically-repaired knee swelled up earlier this week and he hasn’t been able to practice. He’s beginning to trend towards the doubtful side of things for this weekend – if he can’t return tomorrow, he’ll probably miss Week 10. If he’s unable to suit up, it should be a nice boost for Bilal Powell, although he could be in a timeshare with Elijah McGuire, who out-snapped Powell 20-15 last week and out-touched him 14-9. Even so, Powell should take over most of the receiving work. Forte averaged 5.8 receptions per game over the past four weeks while Powell added 2.3 during the same stretch. That alone presents promising volume against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 29th in receiving RB DVOA (per FO) and gives up the third-most PPR points per game to the position while posting bottom-11 numbers in RB receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Powell is just $4.0k on DraftKings this week and will likely become a chalky option should Forte sit.
Other tagged players: Bilal Powell Lions RG T.J. Lang in concussion protocol
Lang was listed on the injury report with an illness yesterday but it turns out he’s dealing with concussion-like symptoms. Entering the protocol late in the week will make it hard for him to be cleared in time to play this weekend. His absence would be a huge loss as he’s PFF’s seventh-ranked guard and fourth in pass protection. While Cleveland’s pass rush hasn’t been tremendous, checking in at 23rd in adjusted sack rate (per FO), Detroit’s offensive line is 26th in pass-blocking efficiency this season with Lang starting seven of eight games. Quarterback Matt Stafford has been under pressure on 37.6% of his dropbacks, the ninth-most in the league, and he’s taken the second-most sacks (26). Lang is also 12th in run blocking. As a unit, Detroit is dead last in adjusted line yards (2.88), so if Lang does miss the next game, it would make it even harder for Ameer Abdullah to find running room. Cleveland’s strong point as been its run defense his season, they’re currently second in adjusted yards (2.92), first in rush DVOA, and allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points to RBs.
Other tagged players: Matthew Stafford, Ameer Abdullah After Week 10, You'll Know This Guy's Name
Everything lines up beautifully for volume in the Giants/49ers game. For a full breakdown, check out the Week 10 NFL Edge, but this game pairs two teams that rank top six in pace of play and top four in passing play percentage, with a pair of poor defenses to boot. For PPR and half-PPR scoring, this is a recipe for pure bliss – and the appeal in this game is enhanced by the fact that most of the players in this matchup are low-priced. For no player is this more true than for Kendrick Bourne, who is stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. After Trent Taylor went down in Week 10, Bourne played 40 snaps and saw six targets. At 6’1”, he provides the 49ers with a big body they are missing without Pierre Garcon and George Kittle. While Aldrick Robinson (5’10”) and Marquise Goodwin (5’10”) do battle downfield, Bourne will soak up looks and keep the chains moving with DFS-producing goodness.
This Wide Receiver Is STILL Too Cheap
While the Jags’ desire to go run-heavy has led to a public assumption that Blake Bortles is never allowed to pass, Bortles actually has 31 or more pass attempts in five of eight games (the same number of games as Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan, and more such games than Drew Brees). This has led to quietly reliable targets for Marqise Lee, who has 12, six, and 10 targets in his last three games. Lee’s price remains far too affordable for the targets he is seeing, and he should once again be heavily involved this week.
Target This Running Back For Affordable, Low-Owned Upside
In the last two meetings between the Patriots and the Broncos, James White has received eight and 16 targets. In fact – going back to the Shane Vereen days – the Patriots’ primary pass-catching back has had at least eight targets in five of the Pats’ last six games against the Broncos (across the last four seasons), with double-digit targets in half those games. With Julian Edelman on the sidelines, White is going to be one of the Patriots’ primary means of moving the ball – and he has been priced down on both sites to account for the “poor running back matchup.” This matchup matters far less for White and his role in this offense – making him one of the nicer tourney values on the slate.
Colts DT Henry Anderson placed on IR
Anderson was 23rd among interior defenders in run-stop rate (per PFF), his absence will be a downgrade for the 21st-ranked rush defense in terms of DVOA. It could certainly cause the Colts problems this weekend when they visit Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks ninth in adjusted line yards (per FO) and Bell has averaged 129.7 rushing yards over his last three games. His production tends to slow down at home as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s increases though. Bell has scored all five of his touchdowns on the road this season while Ben has posted two of his three multi-score outings in Pittsburgh. Even with Anderson’s absence, the trend could continue as Indy’s defense is permitting the ninth-most fantasy points to QBs this year while allowing the most yards per attempt (8.3). Plus, top receiver Antonio Brown will have a mismatch with CB Pierre Desir, who struggled to contain Houston’s outside receivers, primarily DeAndre Hopkins on the left side, and finished the week with the sixth-most receptions allowed (6), fifth-most yards (86), and he gave up a TD to Tom Savage. On the season, Desir has earned PFF’s 97th cover grade out of 114 qualifiers.
Other tagged players: Indianapolis Colts Dez Bryant and LT Tyron Smith didn't practice Wednesday; Terrance Williams wasn't on injury report
Bryant came away from Week 9’s game with knee and ankle injuries. Although he’s on record saying it’s nothing serious, Jerry Jones said he didn’t know if Dez or Terrance Williams would be able to suit up this weekend. Williams tweaked his knee towards the end of the last game but he was able to practice today in full and didn’t make an appearance on the injury report. At this point, Bryant should be considered questionable for Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons while Williams is fully expected to play. Bryant doesn’t line up on CB Desmond Trufant’s side often which should mostly leave him with Robert Alford, PFF’s 75th-ranked cover corner, if he plays. Alford is coming off a solid game in which he limited Panthers receivers to a 3/26/0 line after being targeted eight times. Despite picking up 11 looks against the Chiefs, Bryant finished with six catches for 73 scoreless yards. While the yards haven’t been there for Bryant yet this season, he’s averaging 9.5 targets per game. On top of that, he leads the league with 14 red zone targets and he’s second with eight looks inside the ten-yard line. He should continue to pick up opportunities in scoring position against a middle-of-the-pack Falcons RZ defense allowing a touchdown on 52% of their opponent’s trips inside the 20 (14th). Williams was much better last week, hauling in all of his season-high nine passes for 141 yards. He’ll primarily battle Trufant, who’s ninth in yards per cover snap (0.71) but has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns (4). The Cowboys lost LT Tyron Smith during the game, the 13th-ranked tackle in pass protection. He was replaced by Chaz Greene, who’s 48th in the area and would present an upgrade for the Falcons pass rush on Sunday. Even so, Atlanta is just 25th in adjusted sack rate (per FO) and only came away with one sack against Carolina’s 24th-ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency. K Dan Bailey was also absent from practice today, he’s not expected to suit up this weekend. Mike Nugent wil handle field goals for the Cowboys in a dome game with the highest total on the board (50.5) – his side is currently implied to score 24 points, the eighth-most on the slate.
Other tagged players: Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys, Dan Bailey, Mike Nugent Kenny Golladay and LT Greg Robinson limited Wednesday
Golladay hasn’t logged a snap since Week 3 but this could be the week he finally returns. He was on track to play Week 8 prior to suffering a mid-week setback. If he’s able to get on the field, he’ll man the WR3 role but will likely be limited in some capacity and lose some plays to T.J. Jones. Per usual, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are setting up as the top targets on the Lions. Both players crossed the century mark against the Packers in Week 9 but Jones really popped off, adding two scores. Jones is 14th among receivers with nine red zone targets and tenth with five inside the ten-yard line. He’s only caught one of his targets within ten yards of the goal line and two of his RZ looks but he has a great chance of improving those catch rates this weekend against the Browns, whose defense is allowing the highest touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line (74%). Fantasy players may be scared of Jones because he’s expected to be shadowed by PFF’s third-ranked cover corner. However, McCourty’s underlying numbers aren’t horribly intimidating. He’s allowed a 66% catch rate and 0.97 yards per cover snap (32nd). His grade appears to be a bit inflated as a result of his three interceptions and that’s lowered his opposing passer rating to 56.3, the fifth-best mark in the league. He hasn’t really been beaten for touchdowns though, allowing just one so far. Either way, he appears to be a better matchup than slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who’s posted the best yards per cover snap (0.34) and second-best cover snaps per receptions rates (31). He could pose a tough challenge for Golden Tate, who’s only picked up one look inside the ten this season.
Other tagged players: Detroit Lions, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate Packers cut Martellus Bennett
Bennett had already been ruled out of Week 10 due to a shoulder injury. Lance Kendricks and Richard Rogers received 29 and 33 snaps with Bennett sidelined in Week 9 with Kendricks leading the duo with a 2/3/32/0 line. Quarterback Brett Hundley will likely continue prioritizing the receivers though. Davante Adams appears to be his favorite option; the receiver has attracted ten targets in two of the three games Hundley has played significant snaps. Due to Hundley’s poor play, he hasn’t been able to exceed 54 yards in either of those outings though. This week, they’ll take on the Bears and Adams will primarily see Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller. Since Week 5, Amukamara has only conceded 13 targets, the fourth-fewest among 65 qualifiers (per PFF), while Fuller has held receivers to an impressive 46% catch rate despite being targeted the sixth-most during that stretch. In a sad state of affairs without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are currently 5.5-point road dogs with an implied total of 16.25 points.
As reported by: Field Yates A Great High Floor/Ceiling RB for Week 10
There are few things we can rely on in football, but something we can always rely on is John Fox running the football often. Jordan Howard is in store for a big game in this week’s matchup against the Packers, who rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the run. Howard is almost guaranteed 20 rushes (he hasn’t had less than 18 in the last five games) and should be heavily involved in the passing game too (GB ranks 24th in DVOA for receiving backs and gives up the second-highest target percentage to opposing RBs at 27%). Those looking at Howard’s recent performances will see him not putting up a whole lot of points, but he has been far on the wrong side of TD variance as of late. The Bears have a 22 implied team total (Howard will likely get at least one TD) and are favored by one, so we can reasonably expect the Bears to be ahead late in the game and to give the ball to Howard a ton. He has one of the highest floor/ceiling combos of any RB on the Week 10 slate.
Paul Richardson and Seahawks CB Richard Sherman questionable for Week 10; Tyler Lockett and C.J. Prosise will play
Richard and Richardson are both expected to play tomorrow night against the Cardinals. Richardson may end up seeing more of Tramon Williams coverage than Patrick Peterson while Lockett may not be so lucky. Peterson has posted the best cover snaps per reception rate in the league (31.6), the third-best yards per cover snap (0.5), and an incredible 33% catch rate. Although Justin Bethel’s replacement, Williams, has allowed a higher yards per cover snap rate (1.16), he’s posted a 47% catch rate. Doug Baldwin has the best matchup of the group against PFF’s 83rd cover corner, Tyrann Mathieu, who’s allowed the eighth-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.36) and the seventh-most receptions (23). Russell Wilson has been firing Baldwin’s way a ton over the past three weeks, peppering him with 10-12 targets each game. There doesn’t seem to be much reason for that trend to end given the matchups the receivers will face tomorrow night. Further pushing Baldwin’s outlook is Wilson’s aggressiveness over the past few weeks. He leads the league in deep passes by a wide margin since Week 8 with 20 attempts while Stafford is second with 13. Baldwin has attracted six of those, the fourth-most in the league. On the season, he has the seventh-best deep-passing catch rate (40%) and the 12th-best yards per route run. Teammate Lockett is second over the past three weeks with eight looks 20+ yards downfield but if he’s stuck with Peterson, those looks could shift in Baldwin’s direction.
Other tagged players: Seattle Seahawks, Tyler Lockett, C.J. Prosise C.J. Beathard expected to start Week 10 but Shanahan "wants to see how practice goes"
Coach Kyle Shanahan refused to commit to Beathard as the 49ers starting quarterback but conceded he expects the rookie to start against the Giants on Sunday. He added that he hopes to get Jimmy Garoppolo on the field “sooner rather than later.” Clearly, he’s itching to put his new weapon on the field, the problem is that his complicated playbook is difficult for QBs to learn. So, as of now, Beathard is expected to be under center against this weekend. The Giants pass defense will get Janoris Jenkins back on the field and he’ll see Marquise Goodwin the most. The CB has held opposing QBs to the 16th-lowest passer rating this season (per PFF), setting up a tough spot for Goodwin to connect with struggling Beathard. After Trent Taylor went down with a fractured rib in Week 9, Aldrick Robinson slipped into the slot often – 55% of his routes – and if he follows a similar pattern, he would be set up with Domique Rodgers-Cromartie quite a bit. DRC has allowed a catch on 10-of-12 targets when lined up inside for 119 yards and a touchdown while his yards per cover snap (1.06) and cover snaps per reception (11.2) are towards the middle of the pack. Kendrick Bourne picked up more snaps (40 total) in place of Taylor, running most of his routes where Eli Apple will likely be on Sunday. Apple has allowed a league-high six touchdowns this season and a 116 passer rating. On top of losing Pierre Garcon and Taylor, the 49ers lost George Kittle for at least a week, leaving San Francisco with Garrett Celek as their lead tight end in a terrific matchup for the position. The Giants are allowing the most PPR points to TEs and they’re giving up the most touchdowns to the position by a wide margin – across eight games, opposing tight ends are averaging 1.1 scores against them while the Browns, the second-worst team, are permitting 0.8. Celek hasn’t caught more than one pass in any contest this season but he flashed a bit of upside last year with two games over 70 yards and three total scores.
Other tagged players: Jimmy Garoppolo