DFS Alerts
The Time is Now for this TE
As it was pointed out to me by a good friend on the Absolutely Epic Early week podcast, tight end is loaded this week. I like the Week 7 spots for six tight ends, so the two I am recommending had better get theirs, because at least a couple others will. Let us start with Double H, who has quietly been a top 10 tight end this season. We all knew the Chargers would play Gates to begin the year until he got the TE TD record, but now that is out of the way, Henry has posted back-to-back games of seven and eight targets, with five of those coming in the red zone. It is safe to say they Chargers are moving forward with their future (Henry) and are saying goodbye to their past (Gates). Henry showed us last season how good he is, and I think we will see the same moving forward. Rivers loves to throw to his TE as much as any QB ever has, and he has a really good one in Hunter. The matchup also stands out — people are afraid to target the solid Broncos defense, but they have been lit up by TEs all year (currently 29th in DvP). I actually have the Broncos as the second-worst team versus the position all things considered, and I see no reason why Sunday will be any different for them against Henry – he could be the leading scorer at the position.
Packers CB Kevin King and CB Davon House returned to practice Wednesday; S Morgan Burnett and LG Lane Taylor aren't participating
The Packers secondary is getting a bit healthier heading into Week 7. It’s good timing as the Saints high-powered offense is heading into town this weekend. If King and House return, it could push Damarious Randall into the slot which presents a good matchup for Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman. Snead only logged 21 snaps in his season debut but he should receive an increased workload. Randall is allowing the 17th-most yards per cover snap (per PFF) and a 71% catch rate.
Other tagged players: Willie Snead, Brandon Coleman
Stefon Diggs, Michael Floyd, Sam Bradford, and LB Anthony Barr aren't practicing Wednesday
Diggs wanted to play last weekend but couldn’t get clearance as he tends to a groin strain. If he misses any more time, Adam Thielen would remain the top receiver. He took advantage of his opportunity last weekend, coming down with nine receptions for 97 yards against an injury-riddled Packers secondary. He may have a better matchup than it appears on paper against the Ravens this weekend as he’ll battle Ladarius Webb in the slot. When inside, Webb is allowing the most yards per cover snap (2.11, per PFF) and a 68% catch rate. Case Keenum will likely remain the starter this weekend against the Ravens if Sam Bradford is unable to return, although Teddy Bridgewater did return to practice Wednesday. It’s a tough spot for the QB as Baltimore is currently holding passers to the second-lowest completion percentage (53.6%), fourth-lowest rating (71.1), and fifth-fewest yards per game (190). Barr’s absence could have a big impact on the Vikings defense, he’s earned the eighth-best LB grade from PFF this season.
Other tagged players: Adam Thielen, Michael Floyd, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings Target this Cheap WR This Week
With Martavis Bryant wanting out of Pittsburgh, it’ll be interesting to see what happens this week after he played a season low 51% of the snaps last Sunday. Word is he wants to be traded as soon as possible, and that should open things up for Bell, Brown, and possibly even Schuster. He is a talented receiver with size who will run most of his routes over the middle – which is where the Bengals try and funnel the passing attempts. We have been hearing all year that the Steelers love JuJu, yet the only Steelesr receiver to even pay off their salary thus far has been Brown, along with that one big game from TE Jesse James when he scored two TDs. I think that ends this week, as I expect JuJu to be a significant part of the Steelers passing game going forward. Whether you believe in him or not, he is dirt cheap, and as the potential number two receiver for the Steelers, he has massive upside (as we have seen in the past with Martavis and even Sammie Coates). With other value existing at WR, expect Schuster to be low owned, so jump on before others do.
Update: Giants DE Olivier Vernon, Paul Perkins, and S Landon Collins were limited Wednesday
It was previously reported Vernon wasn’t participating in today’s session but he was able to get out there Wednesday. Perkins may be healthy enough to play this weekend but he could end up as a healthy scratch with the Giants moving on to Orleans Darkwa as their starter. Darkwa popped off against Denver, one of the best rushing defenses in the league, Sunday night, racking up 130 yards on 22 touches. He’ll have an easier opponent this week in the Seattle Seahawks, whose rushing defense has struggled so far this year. They’re currently 26th in rush DVOA and 15th in adjusted line yards (per FO), although that hasn’t burned them from a fantasy production standpoint – they’ve limited RBs to the fourth-fewest PPR points.
Bilal Powell returned to practice Wednesday
The running back is dealing with a calf strain that held him out of Week 6’s game. If he’s able to go this weekend, he’ll likely be in a timeshare with Matt Forte. It’s doubtful either guy can get enough volume to be appealing in fantasy against a Dolphins defense allowing the 11th-fewest PPR points to RBs. Miami is second in rush DVOA and their line is fifth in adjusted line yards (per FO). While they’re worse against the pass, checking in at 21st in receiving RB DVOA, both Forte and Powell will be involved in the passing game, so neither generates a distinct advantage if game flow works in that direction.
Other tagged players: Matt Forte John Ross and CB Adam Jones are practicing Wednesday; Tyler Boyd isn't participating
Ross is on track to return this weekend, he’ll step into the WR3 role against the Steelers if he suits up. It’s a difficult spot as the Steelers rank fourth in pass DVOA (per FO) and have allowed the fewest PPR points to receivers this season. Ross has only played five snaps in his rookie campaign and he may be eased into action as he comes off a lingering knee issue.
DeVante Parker isn't practicing Wednesday
The receiver was inactive last Sunday and he’s considered day-to-day. Coach Adam Gase said it’s “hard to anticipate anything” with Parker’s injury, so we’ll just have to keep an eye on him as the week progresses. The Dolphins will take on the Jets this weekend. If Parker suits up, he could be shadowed by Morris Claiborne. The cornerback was having a solid season heading into their Week 6 game – landing in the top 24 in both yards per cover snap and cover snap per reception rate (per PFF) while allowing a 54% catch rate – but he struggled against Brandin Cooks and the Patriots. Claiborne gave up a 5/6/74/0 line in that game and he’ll have a tough challenge with Parker if the receiver is healthy.
Don't Give Up Just Yet on this QB
Recently re-named the starting QB, Kizer is in a great spot Week 7. The matchup can not get any better and the ownership should be low after last week’s performance by the Browns. Kizer has the ability to run, which gives him a higher ceiling than many at the position. Tennessee ranks 24th against the QB position, but they are much worse than that, as three of the six games they have played have come against Jacoby Brissett, Jay Cutler, and Blake Bortles. If not for those matchups they would be the worst defense against the QB position and it is not even close. There is not much to support this play statistically, but Kizer is still an excellent GPP option in this favorable situation. If you are looking to stack him with a Browns WR, I guess you could go Ricardo Louis, but I am fine with playing Kizer naked.
A Cheap QB with Upside? Sign Me Up!
I know… I know… I am a UCLA / all things L.A. homer but I promise you when it comes to my livelihood I don’t let the love for my city get in the way. Now that we have that out of the way, let us talk about the play. I have no idea where ownership will fall on Hundley – I can not imagine people trying to play him that much but we know a play can pick up steam over the course of the week and it would not surprise me to see that happen here. He is still likely going to be a low owned player near minimum cost with more upside than most realize. He was pedestrian last week filling in after Rodgers went down and threw three picks but that was against a very good Minnesota defense with no preparation. The Saints have been better on defense this season but I still have no problem targeting and stacking against them as they play and score fast which turns every game into a potential shootout. Even with their improved defense, they are 23rd in fantasy points allowed to the QB position so I am not even worried about the floor with Hundley. Tyrod Taylor is similarly priced but I think their floors are similar while Hundley has significantly more upside. He has way more weapons at his disposal in what should be a high scoring game. He has decent size, a strong arm, and good running ability (nearly 1 rushing TD per game in college). He has studied under Rodgers for three years now so he know their system well. I can see Hundley throwing for 300 yards with multiple scores here and the possibility of adding a rushing TD. It is a GPP play only but could be one of the better plays of the week.
Terrance West and Breshad Perriman aren't practicing Wednesday; Jeremy Maclin is participating
Tight end Maxx Williams is also sidelined. West may remain sidelined this weekend, leaving Buck Allen and Alex Collins in a timeshare. The latter out-carried the former 15-10, marking the third time in four weeks he’s earned more work on the ground. Collins isn’t involved in the passing game though and Allen has averaged 4.6 receptions over the past five games. They take on the Vikings this weekend, whose defense has been solid against running backs on the ground (5th in rush DVOA, 10th in adjusted line yards, per FO) and through the air (10th in receiving RB DVOA). It doesn’t look like a great spot for either guy. Maclin could have a decent matchup with Terrance Newman if he returns from a one-game absence. The cornerback has allowed the eighth-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.39, per PFF). Even so, Baltimore’s inefficient offense has only provided him with 5.6 targets per game, limiting his appeal.
Other tagged players: Javorius Allen, Alex Collins, Jeremy Maclin, Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams Jameis Winston limited in practice Wednesday
Winston is dealing with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. He’s considered day-to-day and could be heading towards a game-time decision. It’s possible he could play through it and Winston said he expects to play Sunday in Buffalo. If he can’t, Ryan Fitzpatrick would start under center. It’s a tough matchup for passers as Buffalo ranked fourth in pass DVOA (per FO) through five weeks and has limited quarterbacks to the second-lowest passer rating (66.5). Fitzpatrick tends to throw a bunch of interceptions – he had two in relief on Sunday – which presents an upgrade for the Bills D/ST. He was able to move the football and provided fantasy production for his pass-catchers, finishing with 290 passing yards and three scores, but that was against a struggling, Patrick Peterson-less secondary for a big chunk of the game. Winston had strung together three consecutive games with at least 324 passing yards heading into Week 6 but the injury to his throwing shoulder adds risk if he plays in addition to the difficult spot.
Mohamed Sanu returned to practice Wednesday
He missed Atlanta’s last game with a hamstring injury. He’ll have a good shot to suit up this weekend against the Patriots. If he does, he’ll resume the WR2 role and take some targets back from Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper. He’ll match up with Malcolm Butler the most, who’s allowed the 11th-most receiving yards this season (316). Sanu is averaging 6.0 targets per game this season, although he left the last one he played early, and coach Dan Quinn has talked about wanted to get Julio Jones more involved. Coming off an injury, Sanu’s volume may not be high enough to produce a solid fantasy performance. Jones will be in a terrific spot though. He’s expected to see more looks against a defense that’s allowing the fourth-most PPR points to receivers. Although New England has successfully limited top threats in the past, they’re 31st in WR1 DVOA this season.
Other tagged players: Julio Jones Sterling Shepard is practicing Wednesday; DE Olivier Vernon and C Weston Richburg aren't participating
Shepard could make his return in Week 7 following a one-game absence. If he does, he’ll be the Giants’ top receiver and is due for a sizable workload boost. If Seahawks corner Jeremy Lane is able to return, Shepard would match up with him in the slot – the corner has earned PFF’s 91st cover grade among corners this season. The Giants are currently +5.5 home dogs with an implied total of 17.25 points.
Charcandrick West ruled out for Week 7; Albert Wilson questionable
Also ruled out: C Mitch Morse and RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. West wasn’t able to clear the concussion protocol in time for their Thursday night matchup with the Raiders. Kansas City signed C.J. Spiller earlier this week, he could take over some of West’s passing-down duties. With Chris Conley out, Wilson should see an uptick in targets going forward. If he suits up Thursday, he’ll have a decent matchup with T.J. Carrie in the slot. Carrie has posted the third-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.9) and allowed a fantasy-friendly 83% catch rate, but he has earned PFF’s 17th-best cover grade.
Other tagged players: Albert Wilson, C.J. Spiller