DFS Alerts
Redskins DT Jonathan Allen out for remainder of season
He has a Lisfranc sprain that was originally expected to cost him 3-4 weeks but after further evaluation, he’s been ruled out for the rest of the year. Allen’s absence will be a downgrade to Washington’s pass rush. He’s earned the 24th-best grade in the area among interior defenders (per PFF) and he’s earned the fifth-best pass-rush productivity rating. They visit the Eagles next Monday night, which is already a challenge in the trenches with Philly’s offensive line earning the third-best pass-blocking efficiency score. They’ll also get RT Lane Johnson back this week, who’s earned PFF’s fourth-best pass-blocking grade this season.
Cowboys LB Sean Lee will practice Wednesday
Lee has missed their past two games but he appears to be on track for a Week 7 return after using his bye week to rehab his hamstring injury. He’ll be a welcome addition to a rushing defense that’s allowed 160+ yards in each matchup he’s missed. Both Aaron Jones and Todd Gurley went over 120 yards individually while averaging 6.6 and 5.3 yards per carry, respectively. Prior to his injury, Lee was leading all linebackers with 11 run-stops (per PFF). The Cowboys will visit Carlos Hyde and the 49ers on Sunday.
Other tagged players: Carlos Hyde Ravens DT Brandon Williams will practice Wednesday
Williams has been sidelined the past four games with a foot injury. If he’s able to return this weekend, it would provide a nice boost for Baltimore’s rushing defense against Jerick McKinnon and the Vikings. In two full games without Dalvin Cook, McKinnon has picked up 21+ touches each time out with at least 99 total yards and one touchdown. A good chunk of his production has come through the air – he’s caught at least five balls each game and added a touchdown last week – but the Ravens rank eighth in receiving RB DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest receptions to the position (3.83 per game). Even so, they’ve given up the 12th-most DK points to backs because they’ve allowed them to pile up the third-most rushing yards per game (124.5). If Williams is able to play, it could help shore up that weak point, limiting McKinnon’s upside in this matchup. Latavius Murray could also continue to eat into his market share; he picked up 15 carries last Sunday.
Other tagged players: Jerick McKinnon DeShone Kizer officially named starter for Week 7
Cleveland has made it official, announcing Kizer as their Week 7 starter. He’ll have a nice matchup against a Titans pass defense permitting the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. However, he’s had a lot of trouble with turnovers, committing 11 in four and a half games including a league-leading four interceptions in the red zone, killing drives and scoring opportunities. He doesn’t have a great group of pass-catchers around him either; he could struggle to rack up fantasy points through the air even in a favorable spot. He does offer a nice floor with his running ability though, averaging 25.2 yards 0.4 touchdowns per game.
Leonard Fournette and Marqise Lee won't practice Wednesday
Fournette tweaked his ankle in Week 6 but he’s expected to play this Sunday against the Colts. He finished with another strong performance against the Rams after jumping out of the gates with a 75-yard touchdown run (21 carries, 130 yards total). He continued to give way to Chris Ivory in the passing game often though. Ivory finished with ten targets and a team-high nine receptions to Fournette’s two catches on two looks. Even so, he’s got a heck of a matchup with the Colts, whose defense has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to RBs this season – 1.0 per game – and the fourth-most FanDuel points to the position while ranking 20th in rush DVOA and 24th in adjusted line yards (4.42). Fournette has picked up 20+ touches in all but one game this season, so his volume will be there in this favorable spot. Even at $9.0k, Fournette checks in as our RB5 in points-per-dollar on FD this week. Lee is expected to play as well. He’s currently dealing with a knee issue and that will keep him sidelined this afternoon. Jacksonville continues to throw at the lowest rate in the NFL (47.5%), which limits his upside against the 27th-ranked pass defense in DVOA.
Other tagged players: Marqise Lee Jordan Matthews and CB E.J. Gaines will be limited Wednesday
Matthews is considered day-to-day but he’s been cleared to practice after undergoing thumb surgery two weeks ago. Coach Sean McDermott said there’s a chance Matthews could play this weekend against the Buccaneers. Gaines sat out the Bills last game and A.J. Green tore up their secondary for 189 yards. His presence would be a big boost for their pass defense and a downgrade for Mike Evans, who could potentially have Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him as Jameis Winston rehabs an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.
Other tagged players: Buffalo Bills A Beautiful Matchup with a Tiny Price Tag
This week is absolutely loaded with TEs that are either way too underpriced or in great matchups. Rudolph fits into both of these categories. He draws a matchup against a Ravens team that ranks 32nd in DVOA vs. the TE position for the season. They are currently giving up the third-most points to tight ends, even though they have yet to see an elite TE this entire season (probably the two best they’ve seen were Sims and Miller last week, both of whom got a TD). Now that Dalvin Cook is out for the season, the two strongest parts of the MIN offense are their pair of two star wideouts in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, who draw a matchup against a Baltimore defense that ranks second and eighth against WR1s and WR2s, respectively. With Keenum running the offense, Rudolph has received a significant boost in targets (nine last week and six the week prior) and a big bump in fantasy production. When considering the additional usage, a plus matchup on deck, and a low price tag of $3,800 on DraftKings, Rudolph may be the best pt/$ play on the slate.
DeShone Kizer expected to start Week 7
Mary Kay Cabot reports Kizer is expected to be reinstated as the Browns starting quarterback against the Titans. He’ll have a nice matchup pass defense permitting the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. However, he’s had a lot of trouble with turnovers, committing 11 in four and a half games including a league-leading four interceptions in the red zone, killing drives and scoring opportunities. He doesn’t have a great group of pass-catchers around him either; he could struggle to rack up fantasy points through the air even in a favorable spot. He does offer a nice floor with his running ability though, averaging 25.2 yards 0.4 touchdowns per game.
An Overlooked Running Back for Week 7
While people stayed away from Carlos Hyde last week due to the perceived split workload between him and Matt Breida from the week before, it turned out to be a mistake. This week, Hyde draws a great matchup against Dallas, who ranks 23st in run DVOA and 32nd in DVOA against pass-catching RBs. While Hyde isn’t known that much as a receiving RB, he did have six targets last week and has 29 on the season. He is priced at a mere $5,900 on DK this week, which is way too low for the matchup and his skill set. Hyde has cleared the 20-DK-point mark three times so far this season, and he has failed to reach double-digit points only once this year. The spread on this game is six, but this will likely be a much closer game than the Vegas spread implies. In addition, with a rookie QB likely at the helm for SF, the 49ers should rely on their star RB more than usual in this matchup. While there is a little fear of this game getting out of hand and a potential split backfield, it’s not enough to scare me off Hyde for GPPs.
A Week 7 Leverage Play
It is very easy to take the Green Bay wide receiving group and completely write them off sans Aaron Rodgers. Brett Hundley is no doubt a massive downgrade, but Nelson has been deeply discounted on almost every DFS site this week. The matchup is fine against New Orleans, and Nelson is still the first look on a lot of the Green Bay passing plays. They will have to throw it to keep up with Drew Brees and company, and Nelson is a fine leverage play in GPP formats. He will be criminally under-owned.
There's Simply Nobody Else
This is where we are at with Evan Engram. The Giants simply have no other viable pass catchers on the team, especially if Sterling Shepard remains sidelined. Engram is going to see a ton of targets on a weekly basis, and a matchup against Seattle will likely scare the masses away. I will not be one of those people. He had a 5/82/1 line on seven targets against the Broncos, and the Giants only threw the ball 19 times in that game. They will likely have to throw it more this week, and Engram should benefit – even in a tough matchup.
Upside in a Tough Matchup?
Denver’s defense has been much improved against the run this year, but they did show some cracks in a woeful performance against the Giants last week, and I don’t mind taking volume backs against them, especially if those backs can catch passes. Enter Melvin Gordon, who has a total of 45 carries and 15 pass receptions over the past two weeks. 60 touches in two games is never a bad thing. Gordon has parlayed those touches into 313 total yards and four touchdowns, and he scored a touchdown via the passing game in Week 1 against these same Broncos. If Gordon is going to get overlooked this week, I’ll gladly buy in tournament settings.
Value Alert!
The whole fantasy community has been clamoring for the Colts to give more touches to Marlon Mack, but the coaching staff has been reluctant to do it. They continue to run Frank Gore out there to plod along on first and second down, with Robert Turbin serving as a change of pace back. Things are looking up for Mack, though, as Turbin is out for the season after getting injured on Monday night. Mack has three 20+ yard runs this year on just 27 total carries, and he is looking at a larger time share with Turbin sidelined. Frank Gore simply isn’t the answer at this point, and the Colts draw a fine matchup here against the Jaguars’ 31st ranked rush defense DVOA. This could be the last time we get Mack at a discount in DFS.
Trust Me On The Road!
The narrative is certainly out there, and we always love targeting Drew Brees at home. However, his ownership always goes in the tank in road games, and the whole world will be on Mark Ingram at running back after his huge game in Week 6. This isn’t a bad matchup against a below average Green Bay defense, and the Packers might enter this game quite deflated emotionally after the injury to Aaron Rodgers. This is a rare case where I trust Brees on the road, and I think that the Saints will carry the momentum from last week’s win into Lambeau Field.
Ezekiel Elliott can play Week 7
The legal battle rages on but Elliott has been granted a temporary restraining order which will allow him to play this Sunday. He’ll have a tremendous spot against the 49ers, whose defense has allowed the second-most PPR points to the RBs this season.