DFS Alerts
Wendell Smallwood (knee) isn't expected to play Week 5
As reported earlier this week, Smallwood isn’t expected to play Sunday after missing practice all week. If he can’t suit up, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement would see increased workloads. Blount has been relatively quiet this season but he exploded for his best game of the year against the Chargers in Week 4, racking up 156 yards on 17 touches. Although he’ll have a much more challenging matchup this week – the Cardinals rank fourth in adjusted line yards per carry (per FO) and they’ve given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs – he’ll be an interesting option at his affordable price. Blount remains as powerful as ever, averaging an incredible 5.0 yards after contact per carry (per PFF), and he should be Philly’s go-to back when in scoring position. The Cardinals are allowing a touchdown on 63.7% of their opponents’ red zone trips, the eighth-worst rate in the league.
Other tagged players: LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement
Tyrell Williams (neck) expected to play Week 5
Williams popped up on the injury report with a questionable tag after getting in a full week of practice but he’s fully expected to suit up against the Giants. He’ll see a lot of Janoris Jenkins, which is a tough matchup for any receiver but it doesn’t look like Jenkins will shadow him. That means he’ll get some run against Eli Apple, who’s allowed a touchdown in each of the first four games this year and ranks as PFF’s 81st cover corner. Overall, he’s been targeted the fourth-most among corners, has the fourth-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.8), and has rewarded quarterbacks 132.6 passer rating. Philip Rivers will probably look for the receiver in Apple’s coverage often, which should provide Travis Benjamin some opportunities as well. It’s possible Jenkins shadows Keenan Allen when he’s lined up on the outside, leaving Williams and Benjamin with the advantage. That may encourage the Chargers to keep Allen in the slot more than normal – he’s running 51% of his routes – where he’ll need to produce against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The corner is allowing the 11th-fewest yards per cover snap when inside (0.95) and has the ninth-best cover snaps per reception rate (11.8). Given the tough cornerback group, quarterbacks are targeting their tight ends a ton against the G-Men, whose defense is allowing the second-most targets (9.5), most receptions (7.25), second-most yards (77.25), and most touchdowns (1.25) to the position. There’s been plenty of buzz surrounding Hunter Henry this week as he heads into an ideal matchup. He’s been stuck playing 53.4% of the snaps with Antonio Gates still around and he’s posted two games without a single target. Sitting at 0-4, it would make sense for Los Angeles to cut him loose this week. If they do, he’ll come with a high ceiling – that makes him an appealing GPP option considering he’s projected to see 5.0% ownership on DraftKings with a $3.8k price tag.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Hunter Henry E.J. Manuel still expected to start Week 5
Derek Carr (back) was upgraded to questionable Friday but the Raiders are still “preparing to start” Manuel, per Adam Schefter. He’ll have a very tough matchup with the Ravens, whose defense has limited quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating (63.1) and second-lowest completion percentage (54.4%). Skill players like Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree will take downgrades with Manuel under center in a bad spot. Across 17 career starts, the backup QB has never thrown for 300 yards or three touchdowns. He’s been held under 200 yards in six of those games and threw multiple scores in just five. It’s going to be hard for the receivers to produce solid fantasy scores.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree Marqise Lee (ribs) expected to play Week 5
Lee hasn’t found the end zone yet this season and he’s seen his targets decline each week since Allen Robinson’s injury, falling from 12 in Week 2 to three this past Sunday. Meanwhile, Allen Hurns picked up ten looks against the Jets and he’s caught two touchdown passes over the last three games. Unfortunately for Lee, he’s going to see a bunch of Artie Burns on the left side of the formation, where he primarily runs his routes. Burns is currently third in yards per cover snap (0.39, per PFF) and despite being targeted 21 times (28th-most), he’s allowed just 61 yards (fourth-fewest). It won’t get much easier for Hurns in the slot; he’ll square off against Mike Hilton, who ranks fourth in yards per cover snap when in slot coverage (0.72). On the positive side, Burns doesn’t shadow, which means Lee will get some run against Joe Haden. The corner has been the weak link of the Pittsburgh secondary, allowing 13 receptions for 181 yards on 19 targets. It’s also worth considering Pittsburgh’s strength of schedule; they’ve faced the Browns, Bears, Ravens, and a Case Keenum-led Vikings squad – three of those teams rank 26th or worse in offense DVOA (per FO). It’s certainly possible, if not likely, that’s inflated their defense’s production and current standings in the top ten in both pass and rush DVOA. Even so, Jacksonville is currently passing on just 47.7% of their passing plays, the second-lowest rate in the league. If anyone is in a position to produce against this defense, it may be Fournette. Dalvin Cook was able to average 5.3 yards per carry in his limited workload – 12 carries as game flow worked against him – and the Jordan Howard-Tarik Cohen duo piled up 218 rushing yards on 25 attempts in Chicago’s overtime victory a week later. They added a combined 9/50/0 receiving line for good measure. This past weekend, Alex Collins produced another strong ypc rate (9.1) but had just nine attempts due to poor game script. If Jacksonville’s defense can keep the game competitive – which may be wishful thinking as it would require their rush defense drastically improve in a game against Le’Veon Bell – the Jaguars will likely continue to feed Fournette on the ground in what may be a better-than-it-looks matchup for runners. It’s also worth noting Fournette is third on the team in receptions (12), targets (17), and receiving yards (125) – he should still pick up touches if the Jaguars get down. Plus, the Steelers currently rank 16th in receiving RB DVOA and they’ve allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position (7.25). Overall, they’ve allowed the ninth-most PPR points to backs this year.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns Marcus Mariota not expected to play Sunday
Schefter has dropped the late night hammer and noted that Mariota isn’t expected to play against Miami despite being listed as a game-time decision. Matt Cassel will draw the start, which is a measurable downgrade for Tennessee pass catchers, most notably Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker. Matthews isn’t nearly as strong of a value (FD) and mid-range (DK) play at this point. Miami’s defense isn’t a strong suit but it’s tough to have much confidence in any one individual Titan on Sunday.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Matt Cassel, Rishard Matthews
Davante Adams (concussion) is expected to play Sunday
Aaron Rodgers will be pleased to have Adams at his disposal for this pivotal week 5 matchup in Dallas. The game script sets up well for Adams here as this game sports a 52.5 total with Dallas currently sitting as three point favorites. Last season he was held to just two receptions for 34 yards in the game against the Cowboys, but should easily improve upon that against a Dallas secondary that has struggled through the first four weeks.
As reported by: Rob Demovsky
Pay Way Down at QB in Cash Games on DK
It pains me to even say this, but I think Brian Hoyer is a key cog to my cash game roster construction on DraftKings this weekend. Yes, Brian Hoyer. Due to the efficient pricing on DraftKings, I think we have to pay down at quarterback on that site for cash games. And at only $4,700, Hoyer does not have to do much to get us what we need, while allowing us to pay up for some of these great running backs on the slate. The spot here may be better than some think too. The line movement in Vegas is certainly encouraging; the over/under opened at 43 and has since moved up to 44.5. In addition to that, the Colts defense has certainly been exploitable this year through the air. They have looked to have opposing teams beat them via the pass in the first four weeks of the season but are only ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA. They have been prone to giving up the deep ball so far, and Vontae Davis did not look anything like his old self last week. When it comes down to it though, this one is all about price for me. Hopefully Hoyer can grind his way to 12-15 DraftKings points, and his price tag allows me to jam in two of my favorite running back plays. I said it; Brian Hoyer is a core play in cash games for me in Week 5.
This Guy Should Be Your RB2 in Cash Games on FD
Todd Gurley has been as big of a workhorse as any other running back in the league through the first four weeks, and we get him at a very nice discount on FanDuel. Through Week 4, Gurley is third amongst all running backs in snap percentage (84%), second in total carries with 86 (Bell has 87), and third in market share of targets (21%). In addition to that, he is getting almost half of his team’s red zone opportunities. He checks off all of the boxes we want out of a running back (at least 20 touches, passing game involvement, and goal line work), and the discount we get on him on FanDuel goes a long way towards helping roster construction. Some will be scared off of the matchup against the Seahawks, but this kind of opportunity trumps any matchup concerns. Besides, on paper, the Seahawks are not the same defense they have been in the past. Through the first four weeks, they rank 30th in rush defense DVOA. While I do love the spot for Ezekiel Elliott this week as well, I am locking in Bell and Gurley in my cash games on FanDuel.
Michael Crabtree removed from injury report, will play Week 5
After missing one game with a chest injury, Crabtree will return to a tough spot against Baltimore and their top-notch secondary. On top of that, quarterback Derek Carr isn’t expected to play, leaving E.J. Manuel under center. Across 17 career starts, the backup QB has never thrown for 300 yards or three touchdowns. He’s been held under 200 yards in six of those starts and has thrown multiple scores in just five. The Ravens pass defense currently ranks second in pass DVOA – third against WR2s specifically – and they’ve limited opposing quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating (63.1) and second-lowest completion percentage (54.4). It’s probably best to wait for Carr to return before targeting Crabtree in fantasy. He’ll have a more favorable matchup next week against the Chargers. Carr should be back for that one and Amari Cooper will likely be stuck under Casey Hayward’s shadow, opening up more opportunities for Crabtree.
49ers S Eric Reid (knee) and LB Reuben Foster (ankle) ruled out for Week 5
San Francisco will continue to roll with Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward at safety. Reid’s absence is a downgrade, particularly for their run defense, but Tartt has been excellent this season. He’s PFF’s second-best coverage safety and major reason why they rank 1st in TE DVOA through four weeks (per FO). With Jack Doyle sidelined, Brandon Williams and Darrell Daniels are going to see more snaps but will have their work cut out for them.
Other tagged players: Brandon Williams, Darrell Daniels Marquise Goodwin (concussion) expected to play Week 5
Coach Kyle Shanahan said he’d be “surprised” if Goodwin doesn’t play this weekend against the Colts. Goodwin will primarily matchup with Vontae Davis, who didn’t do well in his season debut last week. The Colts corner allowed a 5/101/0 line on six targets. The receiver hasn’t seen more than six targets in any of the first four games this season but with Rashaan Melvin, the ninth-ranked cover corner by PFF, on Pierre Garcon, quarterback Brian Hoyer may look for Goodwin more frequently than normal.
Cowboys LB Sean Lee (hamstring, questionable) not expected to play Week 5
Lee was inactive this past weekend and Todd Gurley tore the Dallas defense up for 215 yards and a touchdown. If Lee misses more time, it’ll be a boost for the Packers backfield, which is expected to be Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones with Ty Montgomery considered doubtful.
C.J. Prosise (ankle) and CB Jeremy Lane (groin) doubtful for Week 5
All other notable Seahawks outside of Cliff Avril, who was ruled out earlier this week, have been removed from the injury report: Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, CB Richard Sherman, S Earl Thomas, T Rees Odhiambo, and G Luke Joeckel. With Prosise not expected to play, J.D. McKissic should be utilized as the passing-down back. He showed off his hands on a 27-yard touchdown reception and he’s got some wheels too, which were on display when he ripped a 30-yard touchdown run earlier in the game. Still, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll receive a big enough workload to be an appealing fantasy option. Seattle intends to start Rawls and give him a chance to earn a featured role but he’ll probably split early-down duties with Eddie Lacy. Even against a leaky Rams rushing defense which ranks 25th in adjusted line yards per carry (per FO) and has allowed the most rushing touchdowns (7), it’ll be hard to trust any of these guys to get enough volume to post big fantasy scores. Rawls seems like the best bet for those willing to take the risk. If Lane is out, Shaquill Griffin will stay at right cornerback and Justin Coleman will move into the slot. Coleman has graded much higher than Lane so far this season – 80.0 cover grade to 45.5 (per PFF) – and he could cause some problems for Cooper Kupp. Through 47 coverage snaps in the slot, Coleman has limited opposing passers to a 27.9 passer rating and 50.0% completion percentage. Griffin will man his normal spot at RCB and primarily square off with Sammy Watkins. It may be an exploitable matchup for the Rams receiver as Griffin is allowing a 103.1 passer rating across 118 coverage snaps and 20 targets. His 8.4 cover snaps per reception represents the 11th-worst rate among corners this season.
Other tagged players: JD McKissic, Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, Seattle Seahawks Ty Montgomery (ribs) doubtful for Week 5, Davante Adams (concussion) questionable
Green Bay has a long list of notables listed questionable this week: tackles David Bakhtiari, Bryan Bulaga, DT Mike Daniels, and CB Davon House. Daniels has already said he’ll play this weekend, the others may come down to a game-time decision Sunday. RB Jamaal Williams will start but he’s expected to give up some snaps and touches to Aaron Jones if Montgomery is ruled out. It’s a solid spot for running backs, especially with LB Sean Lee not expected to play. Dallas ranks 28th in both rush DVOA and against receiving RBs and their defensive line is 21st in adjusted line yards per carry (4.27, per FO). The Packers are passing on 67.7% of their plays (third-most) and Williams can still produce through the air; he was targeted twice in just 12 snaps last week after Montgomery went down. The backup won’t come all that cheap though, Williams is priced at $5.0k on DK
Other tagged players: Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers Ravens DT Brandon Williams (foot) and TE Maxx Williams ruled out for Week 5, as expected
Williams is a huge part of the Ravens rush defense and his absence will provide an upgrade for Marshawn Lynch as it did for Le’Veon Bell last week. The issue with Lynch is volume. He’s accounted for 53.6% of the team’s carries as Oakland continues to use a three-man backfield with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. It seems like it’s an attempt to make sure Lynch is can stay healthy the whole season and have something left in the tank for the postseason. However, with the Raiders sitting at 2-2 and third in their division, they need to make sure they win enough games to make it there. With E.J. Manuel expected to start at quarterback against one of the best pass defenses in the league, the Raiders may need to lean on Lynch more than they have so far this season. Fortunately, the Ravens offense is completely inept and the Raiders are still favored with their backup QB. If their defense holds, Lynch should have positive game flow and if it stays close, he could see plenty of snaps over Richard and Washington. Coming off a terrible Week 4 performance against the Broncos in which he rushed for 12 yards and only played 23 snaps, he’s hardly trustworthy, but he may be worth a look as a GPP option given the situation.
Other tagged players: Marshawn Lynch