DFS Alerts
Jack Doyle, CB Quincy Wilson and Chester Rogers inactive for Week 5; CB Rashaan Melvin will play
The tight end is in the concussion protocol and he was downgraded to a DNP for Friday’s practice. His absence will provide Darrell Daniels the start and Brandon Williams more snaps, both of whom have been targeted five or fewer times through four games and will have a tough draw against a 49ers defense that ranks first in TE DVOA. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has displayed a real connection with Doyle, targeting him the second-most on the team, and the tight end’s absence may hurt Brissett’s chances of success against the 49ers. On paper, the matchup looks solid as San Francisco ranks 26th in pass DVOA and has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. However, it may be a tough matchup for Brissett’s personnel. Without Doyle, T.Y. Hilton should pick up more looks but the 49ers have allowed just 49.9 yards per game to WR1s this year (9th-fewest, per FO). SF ranks 29th in WR2 and other WR DVOA but Brissett has only completed 50% of his passes to Donte Moncrief across his three starts and 33% to Kamar Aiken for just 44 yards. The 49ers are also allowing the most passes to RBs this season (10.1) while the Colts have hardly used their backs in the passing game – Frank Gore, Robert Turbin, and Marlon Mack have combined for 2.5 receptions per game. Perhaps Hilton can overcome the 49ers’ trend against WR1s like Sammy Watkins did in Week 3 (6/106/2); he’ll get plenty of run against Rashard Robinson on the outside and K’Waun Williams in the slot. The former has allowed two scores and the latter has given up the fourth-most yards after catch (111). Both have allowed passer ratings of 97.5 or higher. On top of that, his market share should shoot through the roof as Doyle’s absence leaves 20.7% of the Colts’ targets unaccounted for. The Colts haven’t said who will take over Nate Hairston’s spot but with Wilson out, Pierre Desir appears to be their best option. He started in Week 3 when Wilson was inactive and played well, limiting receivers to a 3/53/0 line on eight targets (per PFF).
Marqise Lee active for Week 5
Lee hasn’t found the end zone yet this season and he’s seen his targets decline each week since Allen Robinson’s injury, falling from 12 in Week 2 to three this past Sunday. Meanwhile, Allen Hurns picked up ten looks against the Jets and he’s caught two touchdown passes over the last three games. Unfortunately for Lee, he’s going to see a bunch of Artie Burns on the left side of the formation, where he primarily runs his routes. Burns is currently third in yards per cover snap (0.39, per PFF) and despite being targeted 21 times (28th-most), he’s allowed just 61 yards (fourth-fewest). It won’t get much easier for Hurns in the slot; he’ll square off against Mike Hilton, who ranks fourth in yards per cover snap when in slot coverage (0.72). On the positive side, Burns doesn’t shadow, which means Lee will get some run against Joe Haden. The corner has been the weak link of the Pittsburgh secondary, allowing 13 receptions for 181 yards on 19 targets. It’s also worth considering Pittsburgh’s strength of schedule; they’ve faced the Browns, Bears, Ravens, and a Case Keenum-led Vikings squad – three of those teams rank 26th or worse in offense DVOA (per FO). It’s certainly possible, if not likely, that’s inflated their defense’s production and current standings in the top ten in both pass and rush DVOA. Even so, Jacksonville is currently passing on just 47.7% of their passing plays, the second-lowest rate in the league. If anyone is in a position to produce against this defense, it may be Fournette. Dalvin Cook was able to average 5.3 yards per carry in his limited workload – 12 carries as game flow worked against him – and the Jordan Howard-Tarik Cohen duo piled up 218 rushing yards on 25 attempts in Chicago’s overtime victory a week later. They added a combined 9/50/0 receiving line for good measure. This past weekend, Alex Collins produced another strong ypc rate (9.1) but had just nine attempts due to poor game script. If Jacksonville’s defense can keep the game competitive – which may be wishful thinking as it would require their rush defense drastically improve in a game against Le’Veon Bell – the Jaguars will likely continue to feed Fournette on the ground in what may be a better-than-it-looks matchup for runners. It’s also worth noting Fournette is third on the team in receptions (12), targets (17), and receiving yards (125) – he should still pick up touches if the Jaguars get down. Plus, the Steelers currently rank 16th in receiving RB DVOA and they’ve allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position (7.25). Overall, they’ve allowed the ninth-most PPR points to backs this year.
Marcus Mariota inactive for Week 5
Matt Cassel will get the start. He’s an inaccurate passer with a career completion percentage of 58.8%. That was on display last Sunday when he went 4-for-10 with two picks. Although the Titans have a favorable matchup with a fantasy-friendly secondary, it’s going to be a little hard to trust the pass-catchers to produce with Cassel throwing the ball. In two starts last season, he showed a preference for Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker.
Eli Rogers inactive for Week 5
Juju Smith-Schuster has become the Steelers WR3 and he arguably has the best CB matchup on the team today against Aaron Colvin. The Jaguars slot corner has earned a poor 55.2 cover grade from PFF this season, although he ranks eighth in yards per cover snap when in the slot (0.91). Jacksonville’s strong pass defense has developed into a run-funnel. Although Le’Veon Bell averages 20.0 fewer yards and 0.32 fewer rushing touchdowns – for totals of 73.9 and 0.38 – when playing with Ben Roethlisberger at home, the Steelers may need to rely on their back more than they normally do when in Pittsburgh.
Other tagged players: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Le'Veon Bell Kenny Golladay and Dwayne Washington inactive for Week 5; LB Jarrad Davis will play
Golladay (hamstring) and Washington (quad) were both inactive this past weekend and unable to participate in any practice this week. TJ Jones operated as the third receiver in Golladay’s absence and will resume those duties against the Panthers this weekend. He should see corner Daryl Worley a bunch. The Panthers CB has given up a 116.7 passer rating and a 12/95/2 line on 18 targets (per PFF). It still seems doubtful Jones can get enough targets to produce a strong fantasy game though – he picked up five last time out. Instead, Golden Tate should continue to receive the most looks; his 32 targets represents a 23.2% market share. He’ll square off with Captain Munnerlyn in the slot, who’s only been targeted seven times in that position but has allowed a catch on each occasion and has given up the ninth-most cover yards per snap there (1.22, per PFF). That said, it’s a tough game to target in fantasy as both teams operate at a slow pace – Detroit is 24th and Carolina is 30th (per FO). As a result, the game total currently sits at an unappealing 41.5 points – which represents a two-point drop since it opened.
Bills CB E.J. Gaines and G John Miller inactive for Week 5; LT Cordy Glenn will play
Gaines was expected to play but his shoulder injury will prevent him from suiting up today. It’s a big upgrade for A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell on the outside. The Bills will still have Tre’Davious White though, he’s earned the eighth-best cover grade from PFF this season. On top of that, the game has the lowest total on the slate (39.5 points) and Green has averaged 5.5 fewer PPR points per game when playing at home over the course of his career. While Green takes an upgrade with Gaines out, Buffalo has played solid team defense against the pass, ranking third in pass DVOA (per FO) – it may not be the best spot to target the receiver.
Other tagged players: A.J. Green Kenny Britt and Jamie Collins inactive for Week 5; DE Myles Garrett and DT Danny Shelton active
The Jets could stick corner Morris Claiborne on Ricardo Louis, who’s become the de facto WR1 in Cleveland. Claiborne has only been targeted 11 times this season and he’s permitting the seventh-fewest yards per cover snap among corners (0.52, per PFF). That would leave slot receiver Rashard Higgins with a comparative advantage in the slot against Buster Skrine, who’s allowing the tenth-most yards per cover snap when in slot coverage (1.14) and a 71.4% catch rate. Britt’s absence should also help running back Duke Johnson, the team’s leading receiver, and the Jets are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards to RBs (57.1, per FO). Still, it’s an ugly game to target with the lowest total on the slate (39.5 points). Shelton’s return is great news for a rush defense that already ranked sixth in rush DVOA. In 2016, Shelton was eighth among interior defenders with a 9.8% run-stop rate (per PFF) and he had even better rate this season after posting six run stops through 51 snaps (11.8%) prior to his injury. Garrett should boost their pass rush – which currently ranks 21st in adjusted sack rate (per FO) – against a Jets offensive line that’s been charged with the fifth-most sacks this year (nine, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Ricardo Lockette, Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns Cowboys LB Sean Lee (hamstring) ruled out for Week 5, LT Tyron Smith will play
Lee was inactive this past weekend and Todd Gurley tore the Dallas defense up for 215 yards and a touchdown. His absence will be a boost for the Packers backfield, which is expected to feature Aaron Jones with Jamaal Williams mixed in – Ty Montgomery is considered doubtful. Smith’s presence will be important for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys as Smith is currently PFF’s 15th-ranked tackle in pass blocking and their opponent, the Packers, currently rank fourth in adjusted sack rate (per FO). Both Smith and RT La’el Collins have struggled in the ground game though, ranking 53rd and 57th among 67 qualifying tackles. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defensive line, which is getting DT Mike Daniels back, ranks eighth in adjusted line yards per carry (3.56, per FO). While Ezekiel Elliott beat up the Packers last year, his line has dropped from fourth to 18th in adjusted ypc and the back has only managed 3.6 ypc through four games.
Other tagged players: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott Panthers DE Julius Peppers and LT Matt Kalil will play Week 5; C Ryan Kalil inactive
Peppers hasn’t been great defending the run in his 12th season, earning a poor grade of 50.7 from PFF, but he’s still producing when rushing the passer. His 12.5 pass-rushing productivity rate is good for 15th among edge defenders and he’s racked up six sacks (third). His presence on the field could cause problems for Matthew Stafford in Week 5. The quarterback is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, currently ranking 29th in pass-blocking efficiency. Tyler Larsen will start at center once again for Ryan Kalil. He’s been excellent so far, earning the eighth-best center grade from PFF.
Ranaan: Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa will split carries against Chargers
Gallman is expected to start and get the first crack at earning the featured role but ESPN’s Jordan Ranaan expects the rookie to split carries with Darkwa this afternoon. Darkwa is leading the team with 4.1 ypc and Gallman has the best single-game rushing performance on the team, although it was for just 42 yards. They’ll have nice spot Sunday as the Chargers rush defense ranks 29th in adjusted line yards per carry (5.36, per FO) and is currently allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (163.5). It won’t help that C Weston Richburg is sidelined though; he’s currently PFF’s 13th-ranked center and the only guy on the Giants’ offensive line with a grade considered “average” or better. Given the offensive line issues, the Giants will likely stick with their focus on quick-passing over the run. Fortunately, Gallman is a capable pass-catcher – last week he caught two passes for eight yards and a score – but he will lose passing-down snaps to Shane Vereen. There’s plenty of risk involved with the three-man backfield but Gallman may be worth a GPP flier at his low price as he has the best chance to establish the hot hand against a poor rushing defense and has a cheap $3.9k on DK with 4% projected ownership.
As reported by: Jordan Raanan Other tagged players: Orleans Darkwa, Shane Vereen Wendell Smallwood (knee) ruled out for Week 5
As expected, Smallwood won’t play Sunday after missing practice all week. LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement will see increased workloads without Smallwood on the field. Blount has been relatively quiet this season but he exploded for his best game of the year against the Chargers in Week 4, racking up 156 yards on 17 touches. Although he’ll have a much more challenging matchup this week – the Cardinals rank fourth in adjusted line yards per carry (per FO) and they’ve given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs – he’ll be an interesting option at his affordable price. Blount remains as powerful as ever, averaging an incredible 5.0 yards after contact per carry (per PFF), and he should be Philly’s go-to back when in scoring position. The Cardinals are allowing a touchdown on 63.7% of their opponents’ red zone trips, the eighth-worst rate in the league.
As reported by: Alex Flanagan Other tagged players: LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement Martavis Bryant (illness) will play Week 5
Bryant came down with an illness Saturday but he’s all set to suit up today. Unfortunately, he’ll take on one of the best cornerbacks in the game, Jalen Ramsey. The Jaguars corner currently grades as PFF’s second cover corner while he’s limited opposing quarterbacks to a 23.4 passer rating and yielded 0.3 yards per cover snap, the best rate this season. Our WR/CB matchup model provides Bryant the ninth-worst rating this week (-13.31). On top of that, the boom-or-bust receiver continues to bust as he struggles to connect with Ben Roethlisberger deep; he’s hauled in just one of his ten looks 20 yards or more downfield. This doesn’t appear to be a spot where he’ll be able to turn things around, although they are at home which is always an upgrade for Roethlisberger and his pass-catchers.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Wayne Gallman expected to start for Giants Week 5
After the rookie picked up 42 yards on the ground last weekend against the Bucs, the Giants are going to give him a shot to take over the backfield. He’ll have nice spot Sunday as the Chargers rush defense ranks 29th in adjusted line yards per carry (5.36, per FO) and is currently allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (163.5). It won’t help that C Weston Richburg is sidelined though; he’s currently PFF’s 13th-ranked center and the only guy on the Giants’ offensive line with a grade considered “average” or better. Given the offensive line issues, the Giants will likely stick with their focus on quick-passing over the run. Fortunately, Gallman is a capable pass-catcher – last week he caught two passes for eight yards and a score. He’ll have tournament appeal on full PPR sites like DraftKings where he’s just $3.9k and we’re projecting 4% ownership.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Marshawn Lynch expected to see a "heavy dose" of touches Week 5
With E.J. Manuel under center, the 2-2 Raiders are expected to lean on their solid offensive line – which features a top-14 graded run-blocker at each position (per PFF) – and their running game, per Eddie Paskal of Raiders.com. Fortunately for the Raiders, the Ravens will be without DT Brandon Williams, who’s a major part of their run defense. Over the past two weeks without him, they’ve allowed 169.5 rushing yards per game and Le’Veon Bell posted 144 yards and two TDs last Sunday. While that type of performance may be out of Lynch’s reach, he’s just $5.1k on DraftKings and we’re projecting 5.0% ownership. Fantasy players will likely shy away due to his current volume issues – 45.2% of the snaps 53.6% of the carries – and terrible 12-yard outing against the Broncos last week. However, Denver is the top rushing defense in DVOA (per FO), yards per game (50.8), and adjusted line yards per carry (2.53) while the Baltimore ranks 17th, 25th (127.3), and 11th (3.85), respectively. If Lynch gets a workload boost and finds his rhythm, he could crush his salary, which makes him an interesting GPP target.
As reported by: Raiders.com Rapoport: "Seahawks are treating Eddie Lacy as the starter"
Seattle’s backfield is difficult to predict following Chris Carson’s injury. It was originally anticipated Thomas Rawls would be the starter and split early-down duties with Lacy – based on quotes from coach Pete Carroll. However, Rawls was inactive last week while Lacy picked up 52 yards on 11 carries. It looks like Lacy has earned the first crack and if he gets hot, he could potentially earn the featured role today. Even against a leaky Rams rushing defense which ranks 25th in adjusted line yards per carry (per FO) and has allowed the most rushing touchdowns (7), it’ll be hard to trust Lacy to get enough volume for a solid fantasy performance but it appears he may have a better chance than Rawls.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: Thomas Rawls