DFS Alerts
Andrew Luck (shoulder) ruled out for Week 5
This was expected as he hasn’t been able to practice until this week. Jacoby Brissett will get at least one more start under center this Sunday against the 49ers. He predictably struggled in Seattle last week but he’ll have a much better spot in Week 5. San Fran ranks 26th in pass DVOA and have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. That said, it may be a tough matchup for Brissett’s personnel. He’s shown a clear preference for T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle, who have been his top-two targets in all but one of his starts this season, and the 49ers have allowed just 49.9 yards per game to WR1s this year (9th, per FO) and rank 1st in TE DVOA while allowing the fewest yards to the position (19.9). SF ranks 29th in WR2 and other WR DVOA but Brissett has only completed 50% of his passes to Moncrief in his starts and 33% to Aiken for just 44 yards. The 49ers are also allowing the most passes to RBs this season (10.1) while the Colts have hardly used their backs in the passing game – Frank Gore, Robert Turbin, and Marlon Mack have combined for 2.5 receptions per game. Perhaps Hilton can break the 49ers’ trend against WR1s, he’ll get plenty of run against Rashard Robinson on the outside and K’Waun Williams in the slot. The former has allowed two scores and the latter has given up the fourth-most yards after catch (111). Both have allowed passer ratings of 97.5 or higher.
Other tagged players: Jacoby Brissett, T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle
A Cheap WR That Should See a Heavy Workload
The Cleveland offense is a bit of a dumpster fire. They have no clear No. 1 WR, an underperforming QB and are average at basically ever other spot in the offense, but points are going to have to come from somewhere in this offense and they are all cheap. Louis got 9 targets last week and 6 the prior week – with the absence of Corey Coleman and the complete lack of love lately for Britt and Higgins, Louis may be the top WR for this Browns offense. Since the Browns do not have a clear cut WR1, Louis will likely receive CB coverage from several different CB’s with the Jets secondary being well below average, it is a plus matchup. The Jets pass D ranks in the bottom third of the league in DVOA and despite facing one of the easiest schedules against for offensive WR’s (JAX, MIA, OAK, and BUF) they have still managed to give up the 13th most fantasy points to WR’s. Louis is priced incredibly cheap ($3,700 on DK). Regardless of how good a WR is, if they are in the NFL and they are expected to get a large volume of targets, they will in all likelihood pay off their price if it is near the minimum.
The Best Play on the Entire Slate
I have been saying it all year, once Dez actually gets a good matchup, he’s going to put up some big numbers. This is the week I have been waiting for and it is one of the best matchups a WR can have. Dez will, in all likelihood, be matching up against rookie Kevin King, who is an inexperienced and below average CB (41.82 CB Rating on the year). GB is in the bottom 10 of the league in DVOA vs. both the number 1 and 2 WRs and their secondary overall is very poor. Bryant has been getting a fair number of targets on the year (40 total, tied for 3rd most among WRs) and has already two 13+ target weeks on the year while leading the league in end zone targets with 8 (three more than any other player). This game is projected to be high scoring and if the Packers get out to an early lead, you can expect the Cowboys to be throwing often late in the game. Dez, despite putting up mediocre numbers this season, is still one of the top WRs in the league and anytime I can get one of the top receivers in the league with a high volume of targets, in a plus matchup, that is underpiced, I jump on it immediately. Dez is the number one play on the slate regardless of ownership.
A Risky GPP Play on a Very Talented TE
Henry has been real hit or miss guy so far this season. Every single game this season he has had either 9+ points or 0. This is one of the spots where you can expect a big game from him. His ownership in this matchup will likely be razor thin, but it really shouldn’t be. The Giants so far on the season have allowed the most targets and fantasy points to opposing TEs and rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of DVOA. They currently allow near 30% of all opponent targets to the TE and Hunter Henry is one of the more talented TEs in the league. Currently on the year, the Giants have attempted the 2nd most pass attempts and the Chargers have attempted the 7th most. This game is likely to be high scoring and should have a very high volume of throws. If Henry can have a similar work load to Week 2, he could be one of the higher scoring TEs on the slate.
Tons of Targets and Potential on This Guy
ASJ was a semi chalk option for TE’s last week due to his price and his talent. He managed to put up 8.6 points against a JAX defense that, as of last week, was ranked 11th in DVOA vs. the TE. The NYJ WR receiving core is one of the worst in the league and they have a QB at the helm that loves to throw to the TE (see the random Gary Barnidge Pro Bowl season for the CLE Browns). The Jets get a matchup against the Browns that have allowed the second highest fantasy points per game against the TE. So far on the season, 30.33% of all targets of opposing offenses of the Browns have been to the TE. This is the highest rate on the entire slate and 5.5% higher than the 3rd ranked team on the slate. I expect a high volume of targets to be heading ASJ’s way in this game and with his talent and ability in the red zone (also considering his 90% completion rate on the year) ASJ could be the highest scoring TE on the slate.
Jaelen Strong (hamstring) and Jalen Ramsey (ankle) will practice Wednesday, Marqise Lee (ribs) won't participate
It will be Strong’s first practice with the team. He’s expected to be limited along with Ramsey and Leonard Fournette (ankle). If Strong is able to suit up this weekend, he’s not expected to earn a big role out of the gates, but he could see more involvement in the offense if Lee misses any time. However, Lee was able to finish the game Sunday and his day off Wednesday could just be a maintenance day. If he returns to tomorrow’s practice, he’ll be on track to play Week 5. The receiver hasn’t found the end zone yet this season and he’s seen his targets decline each week since Allen Robinson’s injury, going from 12 in Week 2 to three this past Sunday. Meanwhile, Allen Hurns picked up ten looks against the Jets and he’s caught two touchdown passes over the last three games. Unfortunately for Lee, he’s going to see a bunch of Artie Burns on the left side of the formation, where he primarily runs his routes. Burns is currently third in yards per cover snap (0.39, per PFF) and despite being targeted 21 times (28th-most), he’s allowed just 61 yards (fourth-fewest). It won’t get much easier for Hurns in the slot; he’ll square off against Mike Hilton, who ranks fourth in yards per cover snap in the slot (0.72). On the positive side, Burns doesn’t shadow, which means Lee will get some run against Joe Haden. The corner has been the weak link of the Pittsburgh secondary, allowing 13 receptions for 181 yards on 19 targets. Another thing to consider is Pittsburgh’s strength of schedule, they’ve faced the Browns, Bears, Ravens, and a Case Keenum-led Vikings squad – three of those teams rank in the bottom 26 in terms of offense DVOA (per FO). It’s certainly possible, if not likely, that’s inflated their defense’s production and current standings in the top ten in both pass and rush DVOA. Even so, Jacksonville is currently passing on just 47.7% of their passing plays, the second-lowest rate in the league. If anyone is in a position to produce against this defense, it may be Fournette. Dalvin Cook was able to average 5.3 yards per carry in his limited workload – 12 carries as game flow worked against him – and the Jordan Howard-Tarik Cohen duo piled up 218 rushing yards on 25 attempts in Chicago’s overtime victory a week later. They added a combined 9/50/0 receiving line for good measure. This past weekend, Alex Collins produced another strong ypc rate (9.1) but had just nine attempts due to poor game script. If Jacksonville’s defense can keep the game competitive – which would require their rush defense drastically improve against Le’Veon Bell – the Jaguars will likely continue to feed Fournette in what appears to be a better-than-it-looks matchup for runners.
Other tagged players: Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars, Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns A Spot to Save Salary
Tight end is a great position to save some salary this week, and my favorite option is Charles Clay. Tyrod Taylor has struggled to build rapport with his wide receivers, and now Jordan Matthews will be sidelined for a while. It would not surprise me to see Clay lead the team in targets this season, and he is seeing a healthy dose of looks on a weekly basis. He has a relatively safe floor (by tight end standards) and also some sneaky upside. Even if he is somewhat popular, I am still willing to play him on some GPP rosters.
Hold on to the Ball, Man!
It’s been nothing short of a horrendous start to the year for Amari Cooper. He leads the league in drops. Now his quarterback is out for a month or so. He has a tough matchup against the Ravens this week. Everything points toward simply not playing him right now. If you want to play the devil’s advocate — here goes. Cooper certainly isn’t THAT bad, he is now super cheap for DFS purposes, and he is going to be about 2% owned this week. There is definitely risk with Manuel under center, but I like the risk/reward GPP angle here.
A Breakout Game Awaits
It has been a rough few weeks for Melvin Gordon. Injuries and a few negative game scripts have slowed him in the last two games, but he is clamoring for more touches. A great matchup is on tap this week against a Giants defense that currently ranks 31st in DVOA against the run, and they just allowed a 100+ total yard game to Jacquizz Rodgers a week ago. If there is a spot for Gordon to bust out of his slump, this is it. The depressed price point and likely lower ownership after a few weeks of frustration makes the spot even sweeter.
Trending Upward on the West Coast
Russell Wilson is THAT GUY for a lot of people, right? He’s the guy that you never get right when you play him. He’ll throw up random dud games in the best of spots only to shine in the tougher matchups. Yes, that’s Russell Wilson in a nutshell. He certainly won’t be popular this week with a rising price tag, and there is a notion out there that the Rams are this hot commodity. However, despite winning their last two games, the Rams have given up at least 30 points in both of them. Their defense is by no means a shut down unit. Wilson will get over-looked this week, he has played well in the last two games, and the matchup isn’t that bad. All this adds up to the perfect GPP recipe in Week 5.
Bears LB Danny Trevathan will be suspended one week
His two-game ban for his hit on Davante Adams last Thursday was reduced to one week. That means he’s still out for Chicago’s Week 5 meeting with the Vikings on Monday night. Trevathan has been one of the better cover linebackers this season, ranking 12th in cover snaps per reception (11.9, per PFF) and his 76.4 grade was good for 18th. Although he earned poor grades in run defense, he was 24th in run-stop rate (8.1). His absence will be a boost for Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon if he plays.
Other tagged players: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon Rex Burkhead (ribs) limited again Tuesday, CB Eric Rowe didn't participate
Burkhead looks like he’ll be able to suit up Thursday night after getting in back-to-back practices this week. Rowe re-aggravated a groin injury this past weekend and isn’t expected to play Week 5, per NESN’s Doug Kyed. Rowe has played very poorly this season, earning the worst PFF grade among all 111 corners (34.1). His absence could potentially be an upgrade in the slot as Jonathan Jones has picked up a 63.4 score (57th) but Jones has allowed a 103.6 passer rating. He’s right up there with Malcolm Butler (109.2) and Stephon Gilmore (101.8) as the whole cornerback group continues to struggle. Safety Patrick Chung has lined up a ton at linebacker (85) and slot corner (53) and he’s been bad in coverage, allowing a 15/217/1 line on 22 targets. New England has used safety Devin McCourty at LB (40) and slot CB (42) as well, but he primarily sticks to safety alignment (78). He’s also been a disaster, allowing three touchdowns through four games along with 193 yards. As a unit, they’ve allowed the highest-passer rating (116.5) and the most passing yards (324 per game). Every opposing quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards and at least two touchdowns. In the past, the Patriots have been able to limit their opponents’ top weapons but this season they’ve allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to WR1s (110.7, per FO). It’s a shaping up to be a great spot for Jameis Winston and Mike Evans.
As reported by: NESN Other tagged players: New England Patriots Saints placed RT Zach Strief (knee) on IR
Strief reinjured his right knee this past Sunday after missing Weeks 2 and 3 with an MCL sprain. Fortunately for the Saints, LT Terron Armstead appeared close to a return in Week 4 and they have a bye this week to get him ready for their Week 6 matchup with the Lions.
As reported by: Field Yates Jets released Will Tye
With Austin Seferian-Jenkins back and playing well, the Jets feel comfortable releasing Tye, possibly to open up a roster spot for Jalin Marshall. Seferian-Jenkins has been very efficient so far, hauling in 9-of-10 targets for 77 yards across his first two games. He’ll get a dream matchup with the Browns in Week 5, whose defense just allowed tight end Tyler Kroft haul in 6-of-7 passes for 68 yards and two scores – career-highs across the board. Across four games, tight ends have averaged 7.75/71.5/1.0 lines and they’ve accounted for 44% of the nine passing touchdowns given up by Cleveland (third-most passing touchdowns). The Browns have also allowed the second-highest quarterback rating (115.2). The Jets currently have an implied total of 19.5 points in a pick’em game.
Other tagged players: Austin Seferian-Jenkins Rob Kelley (ankle) considered day-to-day, Josh Norman (ribs) week-to-week
Wide receiver Josh Doctson is dealing with a shoulder strain but appears to be fine while LT Trent Williams is undergoing an MRI on his knee Tuesday to determine the extent of his injury. Kelley was able to suit up last night with bruised ribs and ended up spraining his ankle. He should be ready for their next game, which will be in Week 6 following their bye. Norman is more questionable as he fractured a rib against the Chiefs last night.
Other tagged players: Josh Doctson, Washington Commanders