DFS Alerts

Matt Forte officially inactive Saturday

Even though the Jets are 17-point underdogs, Bilal Powell will see another big workload against the Patriots on Saturday. He’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield, which he demonstrated last week when he caught 11-of-12 targets for 78 yards. Bryce Petty will probably be forced to check down to him quite a bit today. Unfortunately, he isn’t cheap anymore, but he still has a high ceiling in full PPR scoring. New England ranks 22nd against receiving running backs and they’ve allowed the second-most passes to the position (8.2), according to Football Outsiders.

Randall Cobb INACTIVE Saturday

Jordy Nelson may get some extra snaps in the slot with Cobb out. He is expected to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes, but Rhodes rarely goes into the slot, which would provide Nelson with a slightly better matchup with Captain Munnerlyn. Both he and Davante Adams should see a slight boost in targets, but Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 5th in pass DVOA. With the Packers favored by seven points and Minnesota ranking 16th against the rush, Green Bay may try to feed Ty Montgomery again this week.

Ka'Deem Carey inactive Saturday

Jordan Howard will be the workhorse back for the Bears once again. He’s averaged 124.0 total yards over the past seven games, only being held under 100 yards once … when he had 99 against the Giants. Today he faces a Washington that’s allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs per game over the past four weeks. It’s a great spot to roster Howard, and he’s a had a very solid floor over the past seven games, which makes him viable for cash games in addition to tournaments. He projects as one of our top points-per-dollar plays on both FanDuel (2nd) and DraftKings (3rd).

RotoGrinders NFL Player Props are posted

The Week 16 NFL Player Props are posted. Looking at Vegas props is a great way to confirm your research and also identify value you may have missed. One confirmatory example is Jordan Howard. His yardage prop is 82.5 which is the second-highest on the board right now (Behind McCoy). Howard has been talked up as a cash game option all week. Another example of Vegas liking the chalk options is Julian Edelman. He checks in with a yardage prop of 75.5 and a reception prop of 6.5. Opponents have absolutely destroyed the Jets secondary with eleven touchdowns over the past four games.

There are several other interesting props. Far too many to name here. Follow the link below to view the props for yourself.

https://rotogrinders.com/grids/nfl-player-props-week-16-1480894

Lamar Miller will NOT play Saturday night

Miller (ankle) won’t give it a go tonight, according to Adam Schefter. Houston wants him healthy for their Week 17 game with the Titans and for the playoffs, should they make it (they’ll likely need to beat the Titans to do so). Alfred Blue is expected to lead the backfield. He’s averaged 4.7 yards per attempt this season, so he is capable of being effective with his opportunities. However, Cincinnati’s defense has done well against the rush recently; they’ve only allowed one rushing touchdown over their past four games. Blue is not much more than a tournament dart throw.

Vernon Davis is an interesting option with Jordan Reed out

With Jordan Reed already ruled out Vernon Davis is an interesting cheap TE this week. Per Evan Silva’s Matchups column on RotoWorld: “The Bears yielded 7-95 to Packers tight ends last week. In Reed’s three missed games this season, Davis has delivered stat lines of 2-50-1, 6-79, 5-47 on snap rates of 97%, 97%, 98%.” Davis is available for just $3,000 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel.

Luke Kuechly will be inactive Saturday

Kuechly probably won’t return this season, as he’s dealing with a serious concussion and the Panthers’ season is over. Even without him in the lineup, the defense has held strong against the run. Last week, for example, they held the Redskins to 29 rushing yards. They’ve held three of their last four opponents to 58 yards or less on the ground (the exception being the Seahawks, who piled up 240 yards and three touchdowns). Carolina currently ranks 8th in rush DVOA, so Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will have their work cut out for them. The game is expected to be high scoring though, it has a 50-point total. Freeman currently projects as our RB8.

Broncos lack of TE options could funnel targets to WRs

The Denver Broncos have already listed Tight Ends A.J. Derby and Virgil Green out for Sunday Night’s game at Kansas City. Jeff Heuerman will fill in at TE. He’s more of a blocking TE though. The real impact here is that Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders could combined for a target share well over 40%. The Chiefs allow an average of 37.32 FPPG to opposing WRs on the season. Sanders and Thomas aren’t available on the Main Slate but are in consideration on the smaller primetime slates.

James Starks ruled out for Saturday

Ty Montgomery will get another start Saturday against the Vikings. He had a huge game last week, rushing for 162 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll have a tougher matchup today, as Chicago ranked 27th in rush DVOA and Minnesota ranks 16th. The Packers are currently 7-point favorites, which sets up a nice game script for Montgomery. While we can’t expect a repeat performance, he should see another large workload in a decent matchup. Unfortunately, he no longer has wide receiver eligibility on DraftKings and they raised his price quite a bit. However, given his receiving skills, he has a pretty high ceiling on the full PPR site.

Saints CB Delvin Breaux placed on IR

Breaux (shoulder), who’s been battling injuries all year, is officially done for the season. In his absence, rookie Ken Crawley, who has a poor 47.7 PFF grade, will be charged with defending Mike Evans. After averaging 12.0 targets over the first 11 games, he’s only received 7.7 over the past three contests. This dip in production could potentially depress his ownership levels, even though he’s a great fantasy option today. While the Saints managed to contain him two weeks ago (4-42-0), it’s doubtful they can do so two games in a row. The Saints-Bucs game has a 52-point total and a small spread of three points (Saints favored), plus it’s being played in the Superdome, so it could easily turn into a shootout. Evans currently projects as our WR1.

Theo Riddick doubtful for Monday night

Riddick (wrist) is not expected to play, but we should know for sure later today. Dwayne Washington should lead the backfield against the Cowboys. He’s averaged 16.5 touches over the past two games without Riddick available, but he’s been ineffective with is opportunities. He averaged 3.2 yards per carry and failed to find the end zone. Dallas ranks 6th in rush DVOA, which sets up another tough matchup for Washington. He won’t be a great fantasy option this week.

Brandon Marshall expected to play Saturday; may see reduced snaps

Marshall (shoulder, back) has been hobbled up the past couple weeks with several different injuries. With the Jets’ season over, there isn’t much of a reason for him to push it too hard and risk a serious injury. He can’t really be trusted to produce fantasy points today, even if the Jets are throwing a ton, which leaves him as a tournament option at best. The Robby Anderson-Bryce Petty connection is very real though; the rookie receiver has averaged 9.7 targets over the past three games and scored two touchdowns during that stretch. Fortunately for him, Marshall should still draw Malcolm Butler, New England’s best corner, when he’s on the field. With Jets entering their game with the Patriots as 17-point underdogs, Anderson could see a ton of volume today.

Lamar Miller considered "iffy at best" for Saturday night

Miller’s (ankle) playing status may be determined by the Titans’ game. Houston plays them next week, and if Tennessee wins today against the Jaguars, that game would determine the winner of AFC South division. In that case, they would want to rest Miller today so he’s ready to go next week. Should the Titans lose today, the Texans can win the division with a win tonight over the Bengals, which means they’ll want Miller available. Given the uncertainty of this situation, Miller is a very risky play on the main slate, as we won’t know his status until after lock.

Michael Floyd will have limited role Saturday

Floyd will be active for the first time as a Patriot. New England is expected to give him limited snaps, although it’s possible he’s simply a reserve receiver for us in an emergency. Either way, he’s a not a fantasy option today. The Patriots are 17-point favorites over the visiting Jets Saturday, but given the Jets stout rushing defense, they may still pass quite a bit. Brady threw a season-high 50 pass attempts against them last time they played, although it was a 5-point game. LeGarrette Blount ran for 6.1 yards per carry in that game on a team-high 11 attempts. Even though Dion Lewis led the backfield last week with 18 carries against Denver, New England may choose to poud away with Blount against the Jets defense. It’s hard to predict the workload distribution among their running backs, which means Blount and Lewis may be better as tournament plays.

A.J. Green (hamstring) will not play Saturday night

Green’s season is likely over. The Bengals have little incentive to push their star receiver to play the last couple of games. Tyler Eifert has also been ruled out, which leaves Andy Dalton with Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd at receiver and C.J. Uzomah starting at tight end. LaFell is probably the best option of the three, he’s led the team in targets since Green went down, averaging 8.0 per game. Although he’s only scored one touchdown in that stretch, with Eifert and Green out, he should see an uptick in red zone targets.