DFS Alerts
Phil Mickelson is a horse for this course
With one win already this season, Phil Mickelson is in the midst of his best season on the PGA Tour since winning the British Open in 2013. Currently ranked inside the top five in the FedEx Cup standings, Mickelson has 10 top 25 or better finishes in his 14 starts this season. Always a fan favorite Mickelson heads into this week with perhaps one of the best course histories of anyone in the field. Mickelson is 41 under par in his last 20 rounds at TPC Southwind allowing for 4 top 10’s in his last five starts. The combination of his excellent course history and the overall lack of big names in the field will make Mickelson an easy choice for a top end roster spend in all formats. Mickelson is no stranger to playing a week before a major and should have a little extra motivation to play well after missing the cut at The Players Championship.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown
Champion of the Sun
Dahmen finished T18 in his 2017 St. Jude Classic debut. He beat the field by 0.6 strokes or more in all four rounds. It was the second-best finish of his 2017 season, so he’ll surely be glad to return to a venue that produced results when he arrived without much long-term form. This time around, he enters with three straight top 20s to his name. He’s gained a total of 9.9 strokes on approach in those three starts. His irons and wedges are locked in. Let’s ride the hot irons and hope he can match last year’s SJC effort. Or maybe he’ll even flirt with a career-best finish, currently a T9 at the 2017 Byron Nelson.
Back on Bermuda
Mitchell was an absolute disaster last week but is there hope for a bounce-back week? The chances are high. Last week, he had troubles with his pre-tournament flight and he was taking on bentgrass greens which he’s rarely seen, at least in terms of PGA TOUR events. Now he heads back home to his home state (Chattanooga native). He also attended the prep school I’ve mentioned quite a bit (English, List, Jaeger). That could be a very fun, correlated core for some lineups. Before last week’s debacle, he was actually in stellar form. Fast starts have been his thing, posting at T12 or better after R1 in nine starts this season. Given his return to comfortable surroundings, I will take a few shots in GPPs.
Jaeger Ready To Pop in Tennessee
Looking for a dart play that will be WAY off the radar? Jaeger Bombs might fit that bill as he arrives having not picked up a top 25 since the Shriners in November. However, he recently picked up a Web.com Tour win down in Knoxville. Long-time fans might not be too surprised that he popped in Tennessee since this is where Jaeger settled when arriving from Germany. He went to prep school in Chattanooga and then attended the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga. He’s very familiar with the state and should be quite comfortable this week. For someone that fired a 58 while on the Web.com Tour, going low is no issue for Jaeger. A high-risk, high-reward, GPP option this week.
Home Away From Home
This Texan has a good record here at TPC Southwind. It’s spotty but good. In five trips he’s posted T7 and T9 in 2013 and 2016 but also finished outside the top 60 in his three other trips. “You know, in this game you want to go to courses that you have played well on. So, being here in the heat, the bermuda grass the zoysia fairways and the town is very nice. I feel like I have a lot of support. I feel like I’m kind of a home town kid over here. I do like it here and you know, it really is one of my favorite places on Tour to come.” His current form doesn’t look great at a quick glance but he’s flashed some low rounds lately. Three starts ago he was T13 at the midpoint (Wells Fargo). He was T14 thru 36 holes at the Byron Nelson. Stefani then flew out of the gate at Colonial, T8 after the opening round. With course confidence and recent surges of form, Stefani is a very sneaky value play.
Charl Schwartzel flying under the radar for The FedEx St. Jude Classic
The large number of early week withdrawals from this week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic is starting to have an effect on projected ownership numbers. With a few big names in the mid-tier pricing range no longer available, many in the DFS community are gravitating towards a few select players. One player that is not gaining ownership numbers in this price range is Charl Schwartzel. Heading into this week with a missed cut at The Memorial, the general public does not have a ton of trust in this past major champion. As we have seen the past few weeks with players like Justin Rose and Hideki Matsuyama, international players who appear to be off on their game can be had for a discount in terms of talent. While Schwartzel is arguably not in the same class as the above-mentioned players, he does have the game and talent worth roster consideration this week. Schwartzel is a great ball striker and if his second-place finish at the 2017 FedEx means anything, then we can expect that he likes what he sees in terms of course setup at TPC Southwind. Currently projected to be in the sub 7% ownership range, Schwartzel offers players a chance to create a strong leverage pivot off other popular players in his price range. In what has been a boom or bust season for Schwartzel, we are hopeful that he comes into this week with the form that saw back to back top ten finishes prior to The Memorial.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Peter Uihlein looks to continue his good play
Looking to shed the inconsistent play that marred the beginning part of his season, Peter Uihlein heads into this week with a bit of momentum on his side. A veteran of worldwide competition, Uihlein is trying to make the most of his first full season on the PGA Tour. Fueled by 3 straight top 25 or better finishes, Uihlein currently sits in the 54th position in the FedEx Cup standings. Looking to build on his current solid recent form Uihlein has an excellent chance to once again perform well in what is turning out to be a watered down PGA Tour event. With many of the bigger names choosing to take the week off, Uihlein is quickly gaining interest as a top mid-tier option this week. With one win already on the Web.com Tour last season, Uihlein knows what it takes to get it done when given the opportunity. One of the biggest challenges this week is to find six players who you can trust that fit inside a good roster build, and Uihlein’s solid recent play provides a strong case for your roster consideration this week.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings A Safe Punt Play in a Weak Field
The value gets ugly in a hurry in this field, so I’ll continue to ride Ancer as a rock solid value play. There’s value in a made cut in any format, and he seems to be one of the most likely value picks to give you that result. He has made eight of his last nine cuts on the PGA Tour, with many of those coming in fields that were much stronger than this one. He faded a bit last week after getting off to a blistering start, so that’s a fair concern, but the price tag simply hasn’t been adjusted for his recent play. Given the lack of other options, I’ll gladly buy in on Ancer’s consistency as a way to round out my rosters this week.
The Top Value on the Board?
We aren’t talking Daniel Berger territory here, but Crane loves himself some TPC Southwind. His finishes over the last five years include a win and a pair of other top 20’s. The course history is nice, but Crane is also very cheap and riding a streak of six straight made cuts along with a pair of top 11 finishes in his last three starts. Throw in the super cheap price tag, and Crane is one of the most obvious value plays on the board this week. Give him a long look in a field that is starved for value.
A Great Mid-Range Option
We know Kirk will be motivated to play well in this event, as he failed to advance via the U.S. Open qualifiers on Monday. He is also playing his best golf in quite some time right now, as he has made eight of his last nine cuts with quite a few decent finishes in that mix. He also lines up very nicely statistically for this event, as he currently ranks 41st in par four scoring and 11th in scrambling. I’ll happily take that combination of stats and current form, and it’s a no brainer when you add in his motivation to continue to play well with no U.S. Open berth. Kirk is one of my favorite mid-range plays in all game formats this week.
Potential To Dominate the Field
His talent alone lands him at the top as this field whittles down to a piece of wheat. While there is some risk with Dustin Johnson here, as he did withdraw a few years ago with an “illness” after a woeful start, he has otherwise played well at TPC Southwind with top 25 finishes in his three most recent trips outside of that withdrawal. While DJ is known as a bomber and par five scorer, he actually ranks third on Tour in par four scoring this year, and he also ranks 20th in ball striking. He’s more than just a long hitter, and he should be able to put up another top 25 in this weak field even if he doesn’t bring his “A” game. The biggest risk is a potential WD if he gets off to a poor start, but that’s of little concern in tournaments, where you need him to pop for a top ten at this salary regardless, and he’s less likely to do that with a bad start, anyway. I’ll have plenty of GPP exposure to DJ this week.
Bad Chalk? I sure Hope Not
How does an overpriced and popular Ben Crane sound? In theory, this is a perfect fade opportunity in tournaments, but what’s the fun in that? He’s a former winner of this event and overall is 7-for-8 here with five top 20 finishes. It’s not just course history that attracts us to Crane this week, as he has made six straight cuts on tour with two top 11 finishes in his last three events. His statistics are trending in the right direction and the icing on the cake is his quote about this course:
“I love the fact that you really can’t play from the rough on this golf course, you’ve got to play from the fairway. But I try to played aggressively, get as far up in the fairway as you can. The Zoysia fairways just fit my eye. You get such great lies off the Zoysia, but the greens are just perfect. I love grain, I love these bermuda greens.”
My Official Pick to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic
List is my pick to win this week. He has always been a statistical darling in the DFS community and we have finally seen some top finishes out of him this season. He has yet to close the door on his first PGA Tour victory, but he’s been close. We’ve seen him compete on a number of short tracks, so even though he’s long off the tee, he doesn’t fit the whole bomber narrative. His biggest weakness has always been his putter, which is one of the reasons why I like him this week. Hear me out — these are some of the smallest greens on tour and List is one of the best when it comes to scrambling. When he misses, he’ll get to chip rather than try to two-putt from 50-feet. He’s been in the mix at a number of similar courses this season. This could finally be his time.
Nothing Wrong with Steady Production
One of my favorite strategies in DFS golf is to target a golfer who is flying under the radar thanks to a single bad putting week. Howell’s T65 finish at the Memorial isn’t all that appealing, but when you dive into the stats, you’ll see that he lost six strokes on the greens. Historically, he’s been an average putter on the PGA Tour and he had gained strokes putting in each of his previous six events. The key with Howell is always his tee to green game and he’s been locked in for months. In his last 12 events on tour, he has gained 42 strokes tee to green. Even though he’s already qualified for the U.S. Open, he’s a veteran on tour that will continue to cash paychecks whenever possible. He has made six of his last seven cuts at this event, highlighted by a T3 here in 2011.
Love for Lefty the Week before Majors
There are plenty of choices at the top of the pricing range this week, but all have some question marks. Dustin Johnson has a track record of throwing in the towel when he’s not in contention the week before a major, Brooks Koepka might be looking forward to next week where he is defending his U.S. Open title, and we aren’t exactly sure why Henrik Stenson is playing this week (it might be due to the new PGA Tour rules that require golfers to play in each event every four years). My favorite of the bunch is Mickelson, who has always played the week before majors. He has played the St. Jude Classic each of the last five seasons and has finished in the top 11 every single time. He’s ranked first in the field in birdie or better percentage and second in DK scoring. The one missed cut that everyone will point to was at the Players where he was paired with Tiger Woods and wearing one of those ugly button down shirts. Throw out that one outing and he’s been in excellent form, including a T13 at the Memorial last week.