DFS Alerts
Sneaking into Form
Kirk is playing very steady golf in 2018. He’s been T70 or better after 25 of his last 26 rounds played. That is a phenomenal rate for any golfer, let alone one you can pick up in the bargain bin. Over that stretch, he’s rattled off a solo 13th at the API and a T8 at the Valero Texas Open so he’s proven steady but also capable of big finishes. Also in his favor, Kirk is a past champion at Colonial Country Club. That’s just one of his four career wins on TOUR. If the RSM Classic is an event you’re using as a pointer then Kirk has also won there in addition to a pair of top 5s. His wrist injury appears to be a thing of the past as his short-term metrics have all caught up with his long-term stats and he’s even driving the ball better than he has historically.
Texas Comfort
If you want to declare a King of Texas, O’Hair would have to be up for the nomination. Looking at his last eight starts in the Lone Star State, he is 8-for-8 with five notable finishes inside the top 20. He said this while contending here last year, “I always feel comfortable in Texas. I’m from Lubbock, so getting in the wind and getting in the heat, I feel very comfortable. It’s obviously great food and great people here, so it’s always a pleasure to come back to Texas and play.” Comfort level is a huge factor which shouldn’t be overlooked when searching for value.
Adam Scott heads into this week with a bit of momentum
At 67 majors played in a row, Adam Scott needed to play well over the last few weeks if wanted any chance to keep his streak alive. Needing to have a ranking inside the top 60 in the world, Scott has moved up 10 spots to the 61st position in the rankings and will need another good week at Colonial in order to play in the U.S. Open as an exempt participant. Fueled by a new life on the greens, Scott is back to using a long putter again. Scott was forced to abandon the long putter after the USGA changed its rules about anchored putters. After trying a few alternate methods of putting with very little success, Scott is back to using his long putter without anchoring it to his body. Back to back, strong finishes have Scott headed in the right direction. As a past Colonial champion Scott should be in a great spot to not only play well enough to move up in the world rankings but perhaps compete for a win. Scott has gained strokes in putting three out of his last four starts, and if he can stay hot with his this new putter this former number one player in the world becomes a great play in almost any format this week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool
Charl Schwartzel is no longer in the field
In somewhat of a surprising move, Charl Schwartzel withdrew from the Fort Worth Invitational late on Monday. Fresh of a string of great finishes there is no news of injury associated with his withdrawal. David Hearn will replace Schwartzel in the field, but will not be available in DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
Outside of the already reported withdrawal of Colt Knost its all quiet on the news front this morning. Rosters lock in fifteen minutes, but for now, there is no news to report. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed.
Colt Knost is no longer in the field
Colt Knost posted on Twitter earlier today that he is unable to compete in The Byron Nelson. An injured hand will keep Knost out of the tournament this week. Cameron Beckman will replace Knost in the field, but will not be available in DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Colt Knost Twitter Sergio Garcia flying under the radar
Ownership numbers this week will more than likely hinge on the decision to roster Jordan Spieth. As the odds-on favorite to win the first Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest, Spieth is the clear-cut chalk option in terms of a top end spend. Because of the high cost associated with Spieth, there is a great opportunity to get other top named golfers at a very low predicted ownership. Struggling since a missed cut at The Masters Garcia has fallen out of favor in the DFS community. Still, an extremely talented player, Garcia at a low ownership offers a great opportunity to create leverage on Spieth backers. From a game theory standpoint, it would be hard to imagine that Spieth beats Garcia as much as the projected ownership would leave you to believe. As a player very familiar with links style golf, Garcia has the skill set and experience to play well this week. Currently predicted to have a sub 10% ownership, Garcia makes for what could be an elite GPP play for The Byron Nelson.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Weather update for The AT&T Byron Nelson
Kevin Roth’s weather report for The AT&T Byron Nelson is up in the main forum, and for now, it looks like the weather could play a roll in your roster-building decisions. While it’s not quite the perfect weather seen last week in Florida, Roth predicts that for the most part, the weather is pretty mild in terms of normal Texas weather patterns for this time of year. For Thursday and Friday, we can expect reasonably hot temperatures and for the most part a consistent wind pattern. Roth predicts that winds will remain relatively calm with the exception of Friday afternoon. The forecast calls for higher overall winds on Friday with a chance of gusts near 15 to 20 mph. While there is a chance that the late Thursday/ early Friday wave ends up with a better scoring average it’s by no means a must to completely avoid this tee time wave. In terms of the wind, we are more worried about the potential gust and as we all know this is a really hard thing to nail down. For those making multiple rosters it’s not a bad idea to stack a few lineups with weather in mind, but at this point, it’s not a must to avoid the Friday late tee time wave.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Ryan Palmer has GPP upside this week
Ryan Palmer heads into this week with a bit of momentum on his side. Determined to bounce back from a lackluster 2017 season, Palmer has showcased some upside this season and could end up being a great GPP option this week. The native Texan is currently ranked in the 85th position in the FedEx Cup standings and could use a good week if he hopes to make a serious run at making it to the Tour Championship. In a week where we will try make the most of incomplete information players like Palmer make a ton of sense in terms a GPP lineup. Searching for his first victory since the 2010 Sony Open, Palmer is a proven tour veteran with ample experience playing golf in Texas. While it’s not predicted to be overly windy this week, Palmer grew up playing a style of golf that favors keeping the ball low to the ground. Trinity Forest is a links-style course that will require a bit of creativity in terms of shots around the green. Palmer can make birdies in bunches, and we could see a true Texas shootout this week. In DraftKings scoring it’s never a bad idea to take a chance on a player who can pay off his salary on birdies and eagles alone. While he is nowhere safe in terms of a cash play, Palmer has the qualities needed to make your roster as a GPP option for the 2018 Byron Nelson.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Adam Scott trending in the right direction
In what has been an overall awful year for Adam Scott in terms of putting, the once top player in the world has gained strokes on the greens for two consecutive weeks. Scott was seen using a non anchored long putter again last week, and he looked very comfortable on the greens. Three rounds in the 60’s and a T11 at last week’s Player’s Championship have Scott trending in the right direction ahead of this week’s Byron Nelson. Still ranked outside the top 50 in the world, Scott needs to continue to play well if he hopes to get an exempt spot in the U.S. Open next month. At $9,200 we get a pretty big price bump on what has been a shaky year for Scott. Despite the price increase, the overall lack of talent in this field will make it easier to roster Scott. Currently projected to be on of the higher owned players on the week, it will be interesting to see how many lineups contain both Scott and Jordan Spieth. The addition of Scott to a Spieth lineup leaves you only $7,250 per player, thus making it harder to make a ton of lineups you like that contain both players. Even though Scott has struggled to play well this season, the addition of confidence on the greens could hint to better play moving forward. Regardless of your roster construction builds, Scott is the type of player worthy of consideration this week. For those who are looking to fade Spieth, having Scott as the highest salaried player in your lineup is a great way to differentiate from the field.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Sam Saunders ranks as a top value play amongst our experts
Pricing and player scarcity will make value hunting for this week’s Byron Nelson a bit harder than normal. In order to fit in some top name players into a roster build, you will need to pick a few golfers in the sub $7,500 range on DraftKings. Once such golfer gaining some steam in our expert rankings is Sam Saunders. Still searching for his breakthrough season on The PGA Tour, Saunders enters this week with hopes of making this event something special. Currently ranked in the 112th position in the FedEx Cup standings, Saunders will be one of the many young players in this week’s field looking to make the most of the opportunity to play in what many would consider a weaker field. Forever trying to not only be known as the son of Arnold Palmer, Saunders has shown some flashes of talent a few times this season. With five top 30 or better finishes this season, including a T9 at the Wells Fargo Championship, Saunders heads into this week with a bit of momentum. Picking the right value plays should prove to be a very tricky thing this week, but Saunders current form should merit a strong consideration as a value option worth considering for the 2018 Byron Nelson.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Elite Value Play in this Weak Field
I rarely feel good about a play under $7,000 on DraftKings, but I absolutely love Putnam this week. For whatever reason, he seems to like Texas. He won a Web.com event here, he played his first PGA Tour event here where he had to qualify that Monday, and he finished with a T8 at the Valero Texas Open. He’s really good with his irons, he scored on the par fours, and he makes birdies. You can’t ask for much more from a golfer at this price point.
All-Around Game that is Built for this Course
Laird should be popular this week. He’s the eighth ranked golfer in my model, yet he’s only $7,900 on DraftKings. He’s been in good form and he’s a great fit for the course. He’s ranked in the top 40 in strokes gained off the tee and on approaches. He’s also ranked in the top ten in birdie or better percentage, par four scoring, par five scoring, and strokes gained putting. His game is solid all-around and he’s just too cheap in a field that seriously lacks depth.
Texan Rounding into Form
Walker wasn’t high on my radar earlier in the week, but I’m tempted to go all in after doing some research. He’s a Texas native and he’s rounding into great form. After dealing with Lyme Disease the last two seasons, he is finally feeling better and it has shown in his results. Not only is he playing more golf, but he’s stringing together great performances. His biggest weakness is off the tee, but that’s not a concern this week. The fairways here are 50+ yards wide and there are no trees.
Rare Week where I'm Considering 100% Exposure to a Golfer
Right when I saw this field, I knew that I was going to be overweight on Spieth. He is locked and loaded into my two main lineups and I’m flirting with the idea of going 100% Spieth. Everything checks out — he’s ranked first in my stat model, he’s a member of the course, his coach is based at this club, he is as confident as he has been all season, and he has a nice history on links-style courses. He’s a 5-to-1 favorite that is underpriced given his winning equity in this field.