DFS Alerts
A Great Statistical Fit
The total driving angle is a big one for me this week, so it’s a lock that the Tour’s current leader in total driving would find his way into my lineups this week. Day currently holds that designation, and he also leads the Tour in putting right now. Why isn’t he winning every event, then? Well, his approach game has been a bit of a let down this season. If he can dial it in with his second shots a little better this week, he definitely has a chance to contend. His ownership might also be a little lower given the presence of other big names in the field, so that is a bonus in GPP formats. Day has finished inside the top ten in each of his last two visits to this course, as well (the 2012 edition of this event and last year’s PGA Championship). Don’t sleep on him this week in your tournament builds.
Leverage Play in Tournaments
This pick is all about ownership leverage in GPPs. Two weeks ago, Luke List was the highest owned golfer in the field. Everyone loved Luke List, and we all paid a premium for him. This week, everyone is going to abandon ship. Luke List has not changed his skill set in two weeks. What changed? It’s all about recency bias. List can certainly smoke it off the tee, but it all comes down to whether or not he will make silly mistakes or miss a lot of short putts. If he was going to be 30% owned again, I would gladly pass, but that isn’t going to be the case. The upside remains intact, and the ownership will be lower. This is a spot where I will gladly buy low in tournament formats, and the affordable price tag also helps immensely.
A Solid Mid-Range Option
In his last two Wells Fargo Championship appearances at this course, Hadley has finished 20th and 11th, and those came in years where he was not in as good of form as he is now. He had a bit of a hiccup late in the winter, but Hadley is rocking and rolling once again. He has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last three starts, so we have a nice combination of current form, course history, and an affordable DFS price tag here. That sounds like a lot of fun! Hadley ranks in the middle of the pack in total driving, but he is one of the best on Tour with his approaches, so he should be set up well for this layout. He’s a solid value on all the DFS sites this week.
Martin Piller on track to play this week
The golf superstar couple of Martin and Gerina Piller welcomed their first child into the world last week. Piller withdrew from last week’s team event to be with wife Gerina, but with both mom and baby healthy this first-time father will return to work. This multiple Web.com Tour winner is looking to make the most of his third stint on the PGA Tour. With two early top-five finishes Piller currently sits in the 89th position on the FedEx Cup standings list but will need continued solid play if he wants a return to the tour next season. Piller has only made one cut in his last four starts but will look to rely on the new dad narrative to find a spark in his game. The addition of Piller to a roster this week should be reserved as a deep GPP sleeper type of play.
John Senden and Sang-Moon Bae are no longer in the field
Both John Senden and Sang-Moon Bae are early withdrawals from this week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Lanto Griffen and Cameron Tringale are now in the tournament as alternates but will not be available in the pricing pool this week. At this time there has been no news associated with an injury for either Senden or Bae.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Sang-Moon Bae The Aussie Finally Finds His Putting Stroke?
He enters on the heels of a missed cut at the Valero Texas Open, snapping a streak of five straight cuts made. The issue continues to be his putting, losing strokes putting in every start since the 2017 WGC-Bridgestone. There is some hope on the horizon. Even as bad as his reputation is on the greens, this is the first time since 2012 that he’s lost strokes putting in more than five straight starts (currently 8 straight). Even the worst of putters have to find some magic eventually so I’d expect Scott to finally get his flat stick to field average this week. On the ball-striking front, he’s gained strokes tee-to-green in 13 of his last 14 ShotLink starts. That is definitely not the problem. Given his price across the industry, he could even hit value with a crappy putting week but I’m thinking it’s just a matter of time before he lands a good putting week.
Converging Trends for the Carolina Green Bean
If local connections are appealing to you, then a Grayson Murray and Chesson Hadley combination is a great way to start some of your lineups this week. They are both Raleigh natives and still reside in R Town. Hadley has a proven track record here in his home state. He won a 2013 Web.com Tour event in Raleigh and has top 20s in each of his last two visits to Quail Hollow Club. Local flavor isn’t the only plus with Hadley, he’s also picked up top 20s in four straight starts (one was last week’s team event). He also ranks 10th on TOUR in proximity to the hole, 15th in rough proximity, and 12th in birdie or better percentage. His elite iron play gives him that go-low ability to that is so valuable when it comes to racking up top-heavy finishes.
Clemson Ball-Striker Brings Consistency
He’s long been lauded as one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA TOUR. He is also a South Carolina native and Clemson alum. Combine his elite striking with his Carolina connection and he’s easy to see why he’s crushed at Quail Hollow in the past. Looking at this 12 starts at this event, he’s picked up top 10s in five of them including a 2011 victory. On the season he is also 13-for-14, finding a way to play the weekend in all but one start this season. With steady cut-making numbers over the last three seasons and a proven track record at this week’s course, Glover becomes very attractive as a low-end lineup filler this week.
Big Hitter with Carolina Connection
This Raleigh native first hit the spotlight through controversial Twitter ramblings. He’s cooled his jets since then and his performance on the course has improved as a result. Looking at his last four starts, Murray has gained 6 or more strokes over the field in three of them. From a distance perspective, he’s one of the longest in the field. Since joining the TOUR, there have only been two weeks where he’s posted driving distance less than the field average. Missed the cut in nine of his first 12 PGA TOUR starts but since then he is a very respectable 26-for-33 in terms of earning a paycheck. Playing close to home should only add to his comfort level this week.
Brooks Koepka set to return from injury
Even though he played in last week’s team event in New Orleans, Brooks Koepka will truly test his injured wrist for the first time in this week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Without a partner to lean on, Koepka will have the challenge of playing in an individual tournament for the first time in almost 4 months. With a win and a second place finish on foreign soil towards the end of last season, Koepka seemed to be in a great spot to start off his 2018 season on the right foot. He tried to play through the wrist injury, but the pain was too severe and so he opted for surgery after the Tournament of Champions in January. When healthy, Koepka is one of the more talented players on tour, but until we get a chance to evaluate his game the choice to place him on roster might is an option best reserved for GPP’s. Koepka and his partner missed the cut at last week’s two-man event.
25 minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
Outside of the withdrawals of Alex Cejka, Camilo Villegas and Bob Estes its all quiet on the news front this morning. Rosters lock in less than 25 minutes, but for now, there is no news to report. Windy weather could be in play this week, so if you are close on a player choice give a slight bump to the golfer who you feel can perform better in the wind. Even though there is a not expected to be a major advantage in a tee time draw this week, multiple line up makers could look to gain an edge by building a few tee time stack specific lineups in case the wind favors one draw over another. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed.
Weather update for The Valero Texas Open
Kevin Roth’s weather forecast for The Valero Texas Open is now available to read in the main forum. According to Roth, we can expect a windy week of golf at TPC San Antonio. Unless something changes we can expect the wind to possibly effect everyone at close to the same levels. Roth predicts the chances for high winds to increase on Thursday between 10:00 a.m and 2:00 p.m, so it will be hard for both waves to completely miss parts of a potential windy day. For those concerned about wind, I would suggest stacking lineups with players from each wave in order to take advantage of a potential change in the forecast. If one wave does in fact benefit, then those lineups will have all six players with a chance to play in the less windy conditions. I would also suggest targeting golfers who you feel like player better in the wind. Native Texans will be in abundance this week, and for the most part they tend to play better in the wind. As always we will keep an eye on the weather up until lock providing any updates as needed.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Jimmy Walker continues to gain steam
With his diagnosis of Lyme disease far enough in the rearview mirror, Jimmy Walker is quietly playing the type of golf that once had him as a top American golfer in the game. With the ability to put in the extra time needed to play well, Walker is slowly starting to see improvement in his game. The former Texas Open champion will look to improve on his excellent course history this week and is beginning to gain interest as a solid play for the 2018 Texas Open. Evident of his win in the 2015 Texas Open, Walker has the game to play in what could once again be a very windy week in Texas. Walker comes into this week having made 4 straight cuts and is beginning to gain steam in terms of ownership as the week progresses. Having not passed double-digit ownership at any point this season, Walker is on track to be the 7th highest owned golfer in the filed. This former Ryder Cup team member has struggled since winning the PGA Championship two years ago, but his talent and excellent course history makes this a great spot to give Walker a look this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Abraham Ancer looks to play well close to home
Current San Antonio resident and longtime Texan Abraham Ancer looks to keep his current form strong ahead of this week’s Texas Open. After spending the 2017 season on the Web.com Tour, Ancer hopes to keep a permanent resident on The PGA Tour moving forward. On the heels of three straight top 20 or better finishes, Ancer will look to play well in his hometown state with the hopes of improving on his 86th position in the FedEx Cup standings. As a native Texan, Ancer is very familiar with playing in the wide open windy conditions that players will face this week. On the season Ancer has made 10 of 13 cuts and appears to have his game trending in the right direction ahead of this year’s Texas Open. If Ancer can continue to play well, he has the potential to crush value at his $6,900 price tag this week. As a rookie on tour, Ancer placed 42nd at the 2016 Texas Open.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Sergio Garcia looks to bounce back after a disappointing Masters
Prior to his very unfortunate record-setting 13 at the 15th hole on Thursday of the Masters, Sergio Garcia was still in a position to post a decent round. At two over par, the defending Masters champion had a six-iron in his hands as he prepared to play a reachable par 5, and at this point in the tournament was by no means out of the running in terms of competition. Obviously, for Garcia, the hole played out totally in the wrong direction and he would go on to miss the cut. Defending a tournament title is never an easy thing, and the extreme amount of scrutiny put on a major championship tends to blow everything out of proportion. Garcia had a tough week, but he is still a very talented player and could be a very low owned option of this week’s Texas Open. Garcia will tee it up in his first Texas Open since 2010, but as a design consultant on this course, this now Texas resident is very familiar with this venue. With overreaction running strong due to his poor performance at the Masters, Garcia is trending towards a very low ownership number this week. Over the last year, Garcia has only missed three cuts while posting 9 top 15 or better worldwide finishes. Garcia normally plays 15 events on the PGA tour each year, but as a new father, we could see him opt to stay stateside and play a few more events on the tour this season. With a commitment to next week’s team event, Garcia seems ready to get back to business and has all the tools needed to quickly erase the poor taste left by his poor play at the Masters.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership