DFS Alerts
Upside with an Affordable Price Tag
Darkness, my friend, we meet again. I almost never seem to get Holmes right, so go ahead and lock in the fade right now. All kidding aside, he does make sense for this event. He has three career top 15s at this venue, including the last time he played here two years ago. We know there’s upside when he’s swinging it (and putting it) well, as we saw back at the Farmers Insurance Open a few months ago. The price tag is very fair, and Holmes continues to at least make cuts even when he doesn’t have his “A” game. It’s about time that we see some long-term form with him, and that could start this week.
The Price Tag is Just Too Cheap
If you take price into consideration, Steele is perhaps my favorite point-per-dollar option on the entire board this week. He won here in 2011. He finished 4th in 2012. He finished 8th in 2015. He finished 13th in 2016. We can’t just ignore a quality golfer that has four top 15 finishes on a course in the last seven editions of the tournament. Steele is always sound statistically, ranking above average in almost every key statistical measure. He ranks 31st this year in total driving, combing his well above average distance with average accuracy. He also ranks 34th in strokes gained on approach. He likely won’t make many mistakes on a golf course that he has had a lot of success at, and I think there’s potential for him to sneak into contention come Sunday. With him coming off a missed cut at The Masters, I think ownership will also be slightly lower than it otherwise would have been I’ll happily take that, especially since his price tag is cheaper than I expected it to be.
Course History - Exhibit A
We have the best option with regard to course history for the Valero Texas Open here. Hoffman loves playing this event and loves playing in Texas, and his record is nearly flawless at TPC San Antonio. He’s teed it up at this event eight times. He’s made the cut all eight times. He won here back in 2016. He leads the all time money list at this event. If you are looking for a course horse, this is your guy. Recent back issues seem to be a thing of the past, and he’s coming in with quietly warming form, having finished inside the top 30 in each of his last three starts. Give him a look to start your GPP rosters this week. The fact that he is one of the top overall plays shows just how weak this field truly is, so keep that in mind as we go through the golfers.
A Fine Mid-Range Option
Hadley is finally becoming more comfortable as a regular on the PGA Tour. While we saw a little bit of a hiccup earlier in the year, his form has returned with finishes of 18th and 7th in his last two starts. His top ten last week at Harbour Town was particularly impressive. While he isn’t as impressive off the tee as some of the others in this field, he makes up for it by ranking 2nd on Tour in strokes gained on approach. This has allowed him to stay inside the top 25 in strokes gained from tee to green. Although he missed the cut here the last time he played this event, he did finish fourth here three years ago, and his current form is about as good as it has ever been leading up to this event. Hadley is a fine play in the mid-range for all formats, and the GPP appeal is definitely there.
Charley Hoffman ranks as a top end spend for The Texas Open
In addition to his ability to make birdies in a hurry, Charley Hoffman has added a bit of consistency to his game over the last few seasons. Once known as a streaky player, Hoffman has shown the ability to compete at a high-level week in and week out on the PGA Tour. Two out of the last three seasons on tour Hoffman has made it to the Tour Championship and he will look to gain ground on his current 81st position in the FedEx Cup standings this week. Currently ranked 26th in the world, Hoffman gets to play at a course that he absolutely owns. Hoffman is 12 for 12 in cuts made at the Texas Open and has five top ten’s including a win. Over his last 32 rounds of this event, Hoffman is an astounding 41 under par. The combination of his dominance at this course and the lack of appealing options in terms of top end spends, make Hoffman a clear-cut player to target in the high price tier this week.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings
Too Good of a Value
Perez was a big disappointment at the Masters. He looked like a safe bet to make the cut, but fell apart on the back nine on Friday. I’m willing to overlook one bad outing, especially at a major. He has been in great form for most of the season and is ranked inside the top five in birdie or better percentage and par five scoring. Much like Steele, Perez has tremendous course history. He has made all four of his cuts here, finishing no worse than T21. He’s solid in all facets of his game and feels vastly underpriced on DraftKings this week. He is another core play that I plan to use on both of my main lineups.
Solid and Steady
Everyone is talking up the bomber angle this week, which is going to leave Johnson at low ownership in both cash games and tournaments. This is a tough course and we are expected to have major winds all week. When par is a good score, I love taking Johnson. He doesn’t make mistakes, he’s good with his irons, and he’s good around the greens. He has been in decent form over the last couple of months and he has three top 30 finishes here in the last three seasons.
Cash Game Lock
As usual, I plan to make two lineups this week. I typically have two or three golfers that I use on both and then I end up with 50% exposure to the rest of the golfers that make my lineups. Steele is one of my core plays of the week, meaning he will make both of my main lineups. He is the best driver of the ball in this field (at least when we look at recent strokes gained off the tee) and he is ranked eighth in birdie or better percentage. Steele also has course history on his side, making six of seven cuts here with a win and two top eight finishes.
It's Time for a Win
It’s crazy how good List looks when you look at the statistics for the week. He is ranked seventh or better in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, and par five scoring. He has plenty of length, which is a bonus at TPC San Antonio and he comes into the event in great form. He missed a ten foot putt on his final hole to join the playoff last week with Si Woo Kim and Satoshi Kodaira. The only knock on List is his course history, but he’s clearly a different golfer this season. His run reminds me of Chez Reavie earlier in the year when he kept posting top ten finishes even at courses that he hadn’t historically played well on. Everything lines up for a breakout for List and I’m not going to be the one that misses out.
Camilo Villegas is no longer in the field
For the second straight tournament in a row, Camilo Villegas has exited the event prior to round one. First alternate, Cameron Percy, will take his spot in the field but will not be available in the DFS pricing pool.Villegas reported a nagging shoulder injury when he withdrew ahead of last week’s RBC Heritage, so his last-minute move to not play this week at least points to him being close to a return. For now, gamers should treat Villegas with caution until he proves he is healthy.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Alex Cejka has withdrawn from The Texas Open
PGA Tour veteran Alex Cejka is no longer in this week’s Texas Open. No reason was given as to the nature of his departure. Zac Blair will replace Cejka in the field, but will not be available in DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Texas Comfort is the Ancer
He was born in South Texas before growing up in Mexico. Moved back to Texas to attend high school about 240 miles south of the event this week. He then stayed in Texas and went to Odessa Junior College before transferring to Oklahoma. I do not mention that as a cute backstory. I mention it because of his experience in the Lone Star State (and nearby Oklahoma). He will be very comfortable in these conditions and the wind should be his friend. He also enters with three straight top 20s. One came at the Valspar which features overseeded greens (like this week). One came at the Corales (windy, exposed track). One came at the Houston Open (Texas track where drivers are hit left and right). Time to ride this hot streak and see where it takes us.
Drive for Dough and Pray
TPC San Antonio is a course with tree-lined fairways that rewards strong driving. That where Bradley excels. He has gained strokes off-the-tee in 29 of his last 31 starts. He has also gained strokes on approach in 11 straight starts. His putting is always an issue but his ball-striking should separate him from the field this week. Bradley’s balky putter makes it hard for a lot of people to trust him but it is hard to argue with his track record of making it to the weekend. Even recently, he is 19 for his last 21 in terms of cuts made.
Walker Texas Ranger
This is a home game for Walker. This isn’t the course he trains at but the added comfort of playing close to home should help him as he makes his way around TPC San Antonio. That certainly proved true back in 2015 when he raced out to a 36-hole lead here and never looked back. In addition to course experience, he also brings some sparks of form. It’s been hit or miss recently but the signs are all there that he is getting closer and closer. Over his last four starts (16 rounds) he has posted five rounds where he’s beat the field by 3.5 strokes or more. In his most recent start, the Masters, his worst round only lost half a stroke to the field. His recent volatility might make him more suited to GPPs and/or single-round contests but he is definitely worth a deep look this week as he readies for a home game.
Great Scot in the Wind
The course this week allows golfers to grip it and rip it. Poor tee shots are heavily penalized but if you can mash it off the tee, you are at a big advantage. That benefits Laird who is on the record for feeling comfortable here, “This course sets up nice for me. Lot of the tee shots that I feel comfortable with. I like to move the ball left to right and there seems to be a number of tee shots out here if you can cut it, it helps.” Looking at the ratio of big rounds recorded on driver-heavy courses since 2014, there are only five better in the field (Sergio, Kuchar, Hoffman, Chappell, and Scott). Three of those golfers are past champions here. Laird is also a previous winner here but he’s a whole lot cheaper.