DFS Alerts
Vaughn Taylor is no longer in the field
For the second straight week, Vaughn Taylor has decided to withdraw from a tournament. A nagging rib injury will keep Taylor sidelined at least another week. Taylor has been replaced in the field by Alex Noren. At this late of a junction, we could see Noren added to the round 2 showdown slate, but should not expect to see him in any full week contests
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Alexander Noren
Matthias Schwab set to make his Major Championship debut
Matthias Schwab is a value-priced golfer worth looking at this week. Schwab was a popular pick for many golfers at The Memorial a few weeks ago but was unable to make the cut on what turned out to be a very difficult course. Currently ranked inside the top 80 in the world, Schwab showed he could bounce back with a strong top 35 finish at the 3M Championship and then followed that up with a 3rd place finish at last week’s Bermuda Championship. Considered a good young talent by many in the world of golf, Schwab should have plenty of confidence heading into this week. Priced near the bottom on DK and at absolute rock bottom price on FD, Schwab could end up being a strong option in terms of salary relief for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Brendon Todd looks to rebound from a disappointing Sunday round
After failing to play well for the second time since the restart with a lead on a Sunday, it will very easy to cross Brendon Todd off your player list ahead of the year’s first major. Currently trending towards a very low ownership number for the week, it appears most in the industry are comfortable making the assumption that Todd will struggle after his letdown last week. Despite his poor showing on Sunday, Todd is still having a fabulous season and as a great driver of the golf ball, he should have a chance of playing well again this week. Perspective is a powerful thing, and despite his poor showing down the stretch last weekend, Todd has already overcome so much to be at this point. Looking to put his bad week in the review mirror Todd could be a low owned difference-maker for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Super Affordable Price Tag
Ancer has been one of the more unheralded success stories of 2020, as he has come seemingly out of nowhere to become a consistent force on the PGA Tour. His approach play has been dialed in, and he has also been playing well off the tee. Following a disastrous second round in Memphis, Ancer shot 65-66 on the weekend to climb from the back of the pack all the way up to 15th place. He has four top 15 finishes in five starts since the Tour started back up, and he’s a fantastic mid-range option this week.
Riding A Hot Streak
Fitzpatrick doesn’t grade out quite as well statistically as some of the other options, but this sets up as a course that is made for this game. He prioritizes keeping the ball in play off the tee, and that is going to be massively important with the thick rough that has grown around this place. Fitzpatrick is also in fantastic form right now with 13 made cuts in 14 starts this year and back-to-back top six finishes on his resume leading into this event. Yes, a lot of his success last week was thanks to his short game, but that is always a strength of his. He can made seven foot par saves with the best of them, and that will help to build a lot of momentum this week. He is too cheap on every site given his ever improving Vegas odds.
Rolling Into Stardom
If you have followed this space for any length of time, you know that I am a huge Morikawa fan. What he was able to do at the Workday Charity Open was something special. If you did not follow that event, Morikawa was three strokes behind Justin Thomas with three holes to play. He was able to force a playoff. In the first playoff hole, Thomas buried a 52 foot birdie putt. Morikawa responded by making a 24 footer of his own before winning on the next playoff hole. The kid is something special. Nothing phases him, and he is already one of the best iron players in the game. Very few of these players have seen TPC Harding Park in competitive action, so Morikawa is not at a disadvantage from that perspective — and he is a quick study at new venues. Don’t let the lack of experience turn you away from a golfer who has two wins in just 26 career PGA Tour starts.
Nice Salary With Winning Upside
If you are looking at the key statistics, few (if any) players can match Schauffele this week. While he has not yet won a major, Schauffele is knocking on the door. He has always proven that he comes to play in big moments, and he already has five top six finishes in major championships in just 11 starts. That is remarkable. He is a superstar and a California native, and I consider him a favorite to win this week. He’s my favorite option on the board, and it is a nice bonus that he also doesn’t cost as much as the likes of Thomas, McIlroy, and Koepka. Schauffele finished sixth last week despite a disastrous quadruple bogey on Friday. One poor round held him back at The Memorial a few weeks ago, or he would have been in the mix there. He’s ready to win a major.
Harding Park course conditions update via social media
As one of the more active PGA Tour players on social media, Ian Poulter is a great follow if you are looking to gain some insight into the world of professional golf. Poulter went live on Instagram earlier today to give us a bit of insight into how Harding Park could play this week. With much talk about how the rough will play for the years first major, Poulter hit a couple of shots with a five iron from the rough. While one lie was decent, the other just a few feet away was pretty awful. The major takeaway is that you want to keep it in the fairway for the week. Golfers will not always get good lies in the rough, and stronger players could have an advantage in terms of muscling out of certain lies.
As reported by: Ian Poulter Instagram Adam Scott set to return after a lengthy layoff
Having not played since the canceled Players Championship in March, Adam Scott is the last golfer ranked inside the top 30 in the world to make a return to the tour since the COVID outbreak. Historically a player we look to attack in major championships, Scott is flying a bit under the radar this week. Currently projected to have a sub 7% ownership, Scott could end up being a difference-maker given his very affordable price tag across the industry. While there is a legitimate concern of where his game could be entering this week after a long layoff, Scott has the talent to crush his price for the week, making him a very intriguing leverage choice in large field GPP’s.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Salary Relief Ball Striker
For my GPP plays, I am looking at two ball strikers that tend to struggle on and around the greens. The thought process here is that if the approach is on and they are hitting greens, they have a chance at a high-upside finish. The downside is if they end up missing greens on Thursday/Friday, they come with a good chance of missing the cut. Conners fits this mold more than anyone in the field, as he ranks 16th off the tee, 15th on approach, 107th around the greens, and 95th in putting. That said, since the restart he has been relatively neutral on and around the greens, while consistently gaining strokes ball-striking as we have come to expect. I expect Conners to come in at very low ownership, and while he is not the safest play on the board, I like his chances if he can hit greens and keep things reasonable with the putter.
Cut-Making Punt Play
The last time we saw Glover, he was 9400 and burned a lot of people as chalk in a weak 3M Open field. Now, he is back in a more “normal” price range for him as a cheap play with a very reasonable chance of making the cut. Prior to the 3M Open, Glover made 5 straight cuts and finished no worse than T38. He has been consistently gaining strokes tee to green and consistently struggling around the greens, which is the type of profile I don’t mind targeting for a punt play this week. He may not be the best play in something like the Milly Maker where we are looking for upside, but when looking for cut equity below 7k, I like Glover as a solid option to fill out a lineup.
Good Fit for TPC Harding Park
Stenson is in an adjacent boat to Scott, as he teed it up for the first time last week. At the WGC event in Memphis, he quietly posted a T35 finish. He didn’t have a single round over par and he gained two strokes on approach. When at his best, he peppers fairways off the tee and is one of the best on approach (especially with long irons). His putting can be hit or miss, but poa annua is by far his best putting surface. While I don’t think he can win this week, he can certainly make the cut and move up the leaderboard on the weekend.
No Form Led to a Huge Price Discount
This is one of those picks that could easily backfire given the fact that we haven’t seen Scott since before the break. I saw a 10 second clip of him practicing at TPC Harding Park last week, but that doesn’t mean much of anything. I’ll definitely look for quotes from him throughout the week, but expect to be over-weight on him as long as I don’t hear anything too negative. He’s currently the seventh ranked golfer in my model for the week and he’s only $7,800 on DraftKings. In the last three PGA Championships and U.S. Opens, he hasn’t finished worse than T8. He’s elite tee to green and can actually putt well on poa annua grass every now and then.
Elite Talent at a Discounted Price Point
If we took last week’s event and pretended like it didn’t happen, Hatton would be 30-to-1 in the outright market and $9,000 on DraftKings. Everyone is overreacting to one bad week of golf. Let’s not forget that before the WGC event, he posted four straight top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour. He’s a grinder that continues to improve his ball striking. His off the tee play is a small concern, but he’s great on approach, he’s an elite putter, and he’s one of the best at avoiding bogeys. He also has a great track record at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. At the end of the day, he’s just too cheap for his talent level.
Eventually he will Find a Positive Week on the Greens
Matsuyama has played five events since the restart and hasn’t been able to post another better than a T20. While he doesn’t have the elite form that we are often looking for, there are encouraging signs in his statistics. Here are his strokes gained tee to green on the field at the St. Jude Invitational (+4.8), the Workday Charity Open (+9.0), and the Rocket Mortgage Classic (+7.4). His putter has been abysmal, but he’s one of the best ball strikers in the field and one of the best around the green. His best putting surfaces are bentgrass and poa annua grass and he has a good track record in California. He also has a good record at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open.