DFS Alerts
One of the Most Consistent Producers on Tour
There was a point at the start of the season where I had to ignore my model and play English without the backing of statistics. He was in such bad form the last couple of years that it was really bringing down his projection. As crazy as it sounds, he’s been one of the most consistent producers on the PGA Tour over the last year of play. Since last August, he has made 14-of-16 cuts with 10 top 20 finishes and five top 10 finishes. He has gained strokes putting in seven straight events and has gained strokes around the green in 10 straight events. The ball striking has been solid over his last three events and he’s second in this field in bogey avoidance. He checks all of the boxes that I’m looking for and he’s dirt cheap across the industry.
No More Rust for Mr. Fleetwood
Fleetwood hasn’t been great since the restart, but I’ll chalk that up to him shaking off the rust. He waited longer than most to tee it up and has only played in two events. He missed the cut at the 3M Open and finished T35 at the St. Jude Invitational last week. While the underlying statistics don’t jump off the page, he did gain at least one stroke tee to green in both events. Historically, he’s been a good total driver of the ball and one of the best iron players on tour. He tends to play difficult golf courses well and he’s priced at a steep discount thanks to his recent form (at least on DraftKings). He seemed to find something in his final round in Memphis and I expect him to keep it going this week in San Francisco.
Very Strong Weekend in Memphis
Cantlay did exactly what I was hoping he would at last week’s St. Jude Invitational. Bermuda is by far his worst putting surface and he didn’t have a great track record on all of the comp courses in Florida. I was hoping he would post a mediocre finish, which would help keep his price at a reasonable level for this week. Cantlay was pretty bad the first two rounds, but did finish his final 36 holes at eight under par. He has the longest made cut streak on the PGA Tour, he plays well in majors, and he has the game to breakout and win a big event like this. His best two putting surfaces are bentgrass and poa annua grass and he has a great track record in California.
Time for X to Win a Major
My pick to win and my favorite spend in DFS is Schauffele. He’s quietly going about his business and now gets a major on his own turf (California kid that loves the bentgrass/poa mix). At the Memorial Tournament, he shot six over in the first round and came back to post a T13 finish. At last week’s WGC event, he only made one bogey and one quadruple bogey all week. To play 70 of 72 holes at TPC Southwind at par or better is a great accomplishment. He’s solid off the tee, good on approach, and he has one of the best short games in this field.
Five Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report ahead of The WGC FedEx St. Jude
There is no major news to report of the 2nd WGC event of the year. The weather could be a factor in terms of affecting play, but due to the limited filed this week golfers will tee off in a narrow range of time limiting the chance for a potential edge. ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!
Hao-Tong Li brings international experience at a discount
With multiple international victories including two European Tour wins, Hao-Tong Li is a golfer worthy of roster consideration this week. Currently priced at or near minimum on all DFS sites, Li stands out as a low owned option with upside for the year’s second WGC. Playing in his fourteenth WGC event Li has posted five top 25 or better finishes, highlighted by four consecutive top 25 or better showings. For those who are not quite sold on Li in terms of adding him to your full week roster builds, you could look to grab exposure via showdown slates. Li posted 3 rounds of 40 or better in showdown scoring at last year’s WGC event. His four-round average of 39.4 ranked Li inside the top 13 in terms of showdown scoring at last year’s WGC FedEx St. Jude.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Tommy Fleetwood looks to bounce back from a missed cut
With last week’s missed cut, Tommy Fleetwood did not exactly have the start he had hoped for in his first event back after the tour’s restart. Now that the competitive rust is off his game Fleetwood should be ready for what is going to be a long stretch of golf. Coming down the stretch last Friday Fleetwood needed to make a few bridies in order to make the cut. Fleetwood hit the ball pretty good down the stretch but he was unable to convert on a couple of makeable putts over his last nine holes. Discounted a bit for last week’s missed cut, Fleetwood stands out as a great building block for all formats this week. Still searching for his first PGA Tour win, Fleetwood would like nothing more than to become the third golfer to win an event after missing the cut since the restart of this year’s season. Fleetwood finished in a tie for fourth place at last year’s WGC St. Jude Classic.
As reported by: PGA Expert Survey Favorite Punt Play of the Week
If we are looking at long-term form and overall pedigree as a golfer, Snedeker stands out in this price range. He has struggled in recent tournaments, but he is simply a better golfer than his $6400 price tag suggests. Snedeker is not the typical profile of a golfer that I like to target, he is more known for his short game and putting than his ball striking, but in tougher field events such as this, that grinder style can prevail. He has had success in WGC events in the past, finished 27th at the St. Jude last year, and is overall just a nice value piece that you can plug into your lineup and have plenty of salary remaining to allocate elsewhere.
Value Play Rounding into Form
Chez is rounding into form, finishing 46, 17, and 22 in his last three events. In each of the last two, he has gained strokes in every single category, which is a promising sign for a tournament that will require a versatile skillset. He has played in a number of WGC events in the past, including a 27th place finish in this tournament last year. Long term, he is a golfer that tends to excel on approach and around the greens. If he can continue to gain strokes with the putter like he has the past two events (1.6 strokes at the Workday, 2.2 strokes at the Memorial), I like his chance of putting up a solid performance and providing value to your lineup at a cheap price tag.
Scottie Scheffler looks to get his season back on track
Scottie Scheffler started out the year as a darling of the DFS golf world. Fueled by 4 top ten or better finishes in his first nine starts this year, Scheffler looked in a great position to earn his first PGA Tour win. Since the restart, Scheffler has not played up to the golf he displayed earlier in the season. Having only made 2 out of 5 cuts since the restart, Scheffler has fallen out of favor with many in the DFS community. Playing in his second WGC event of his career Scheffler at a discount stands out as a great value play for the week. While he is not exactly the ideal play for single entry type tournaments, Scheffler has more than enough upside to be a difference-maker in large field GPP’s.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Brooks Koepka prepares to defend WGC title despite his poor recent form
Despite admitting that his knee is not quite right, Brooks Koepka will continue to play this season. This four-time major winner will set to defend back to back titles over the next two weeks and looks to do so at his familiar role as an underdog. Currently trending at a sub 10% ownership number Koepka looks to be off the radar for many gamers this week. Entering this week on the heels of back to back missed cut’s Koepka is certainly not happy with his current form. That being said Koepka is back in his much-relished role of being motivated by his doubters. Including last year’s WGC FedEx St. Jude win, Koepka has played 24 rounds at TPC Southwind, during that time he as shot 68 or better 12 times. Despite his poor form, the combination of great course history and low ownership makes Koepka an interesting leverage play this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Brandt Snedeker stands out as a great point per dollar option
WGC events are a great reward for any player on tour. Events such as this week’s WGC FedEx St. Jude’s are a chance for players to play against the best players in the world. Playing in his 28th WGC event this week Brandt Snedeker is a player that would love to add the title of WGC Champion to his resume. Priced-down in this very strong field, Snedeker is trending as a top point per option for the week. Having not played his best golf since the restart, Snedeker will look to build on a top 30 finish from last year’s WGC event. Snedeker has posted a top 25 or better in 10 of his 27 WGC starts. At his bottom-barrel price, a top 30 type of finish should do the job in terms of DFS for the week, and as a proven tour winner, Snedeker has proven he can offer more than just a top 25 finish.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Respectable Value
Hadwin always seems to fly under the radar, but he is a consistently solid option that often seems to outperform when he is priced at a value. He ranks inside the top 45 in the same metrics I have referenced for other golfers: ball striking (26th), par four scoring (14th), and approach (42nd), except Hadwin is cheaper than all of them. He hasn’t missed a cut in five cut events since the restart, which suggests that his game is in a good place. He probably doesn’t have winning upside in this loaded field, but you don’t need that at this salary.
The Risk/Reward Play of the Week
This will be the pick that likely makes or breaks my week. There is no doubt that Fleetwood hasn’t been in the best of form over the last four months, at least when we have seen him play on the PGA Tour. However, I simply can’t get past the fact that this is a world class golfer who just went through a bit of a slump. He couldn’t make any putts last week and ended up just short of the cut line; it’s not like he played completely awful golf for two rounds. He still ranks 17th on the PGA Tour in ball striking and inside the top 50 in par four scoring. He did not quarantine for several weeks and come over to the United States just to miss cuts and not get any paychecks. I fully believe that his motivation and focus will kick in this week, and you’re going to get him at lower ownership in addition to the cheaper price. It’s risky, but it makes sense in multi-entry GPP settings.
Trust the Elite Iron Play
Morikawa’s great start to his career continued with his second victory in 24 PGA Tour starts just a few weeks ago at the Workday Charity Open. He took last week off and should be rested and ready to go. He is yet another golfer who is a great fit on a course that rewards good ball striking, as TPC Southwind does. As such, it is of little concern to me that he does not have any competitive rounds on this course in the past. That hasn’t stopped him from competing for victories at other venues.