DFS Alerts
Sub-7k Ball Striker
I played Homa in my main lineup last week and suffered for it as he missed the cut on the number. He gained 3.5 strokes tee to green, but simply could not make a putt, losing 2.1 strokes on the greens and directly costing him his chance at making the cut. Trust me, watching him miss several putts under 10 feet on shot tracker was not very fun. This is not an uncommon performance for Max – over the past 24 rounds, he is 13th in this field tee to green, but 61st in putting. I’m willing to go back to well here in the hopes that the putter can come around this time. He certainly comes with some risk, especially because he struggles with his game around the green as well, but if he can continue to hit fairways and greens, I like his chances of making the cut and putting up a decent performance. If you are looking for a sub-7k ball striker, Homa could be your guy.
Welcome to Valuetown
For those looking for some extreme value, Tyler Duncan is a guy I’ve been targeting a bit the past few weeks. While he is far from a lock, he provides about as much “safety” as you’re going to get below $6500. He is 4/4 on made cuts since the restart, gaining strokes tee to green in each showing. At this price, a made cut is just about all you are looking for, and his true value is in opening up some salary to jam in the higher priced studs. This strategy is particularly viable on FanDuel, but can pay off on DraftKings as well, ala Chase Seiffert last week. No one will be playing him, so you can throw him into a chalky build and almost guarantee that your lineup will be unique.
Brooks Koepka motivated to turn season around
Brooks Koepka will enter this week’s Memorial with a bit of extra motivation to play well. After missing last week’s WorkDay Charity cut, Koepka made a last-minute choice to play this week. Koepka understands that he basically needs to run the table in order to play his way into the FedEx Cup race, and is hopeful that the momentum from Friday’s second round carries over into this week. Koepka took to twitter last week to throw some shade at the newly beefed-up Bryson DeChambeau. Koepka has historically been a guy motivated to prove his critics wrong and would love to put the narrative of DeChambeau being the current best player in the game to rest. Even at a discount in price Koepka should not garnish much ownership this week. Koepka found something in his back nine on Friday, and if that form carries over to this week there is little doubt that Koepka can contend for a win. Since the restart, there have already been two winners who missed the previous cut, Koepka will tee it up on Thursday with that goal clearly in his sights.
As reported by: The Golf Channel
IMO, this Golfer has the Highest Floor/Ceiling Combo of Anyone in the Field
While the field is certainly stronger this week, I’m a little surprised Cantlay ended up being priced under $10,000 on DraftKings. And believe me, I am not complaining about it. Starting with Cantlay compare to Bryson DeChambeau or Justin Thomas does wonders for the rest of your lineup. And to be honest, I think Cantlay has the highest floor/combination of any golfer in the field. He has made 19 straight cuts and hasn’t finished worse than T41 during that stretch. He has a win, two seconds, and two thirds in those 19 events. In his two tournaments since the restart, he’s gained strokes in all four categories — off the tee, on approach, around the green, and on the green. With all parts of his game firing on all cylinders, he’s one of the few that should actually benefit from a harder course setup.
One Good Putting Week Please 🙏
Matsuyama was the only core play to make the cut last week. If there wasn’t actual money at stake, it would have been comical how bad they all played. I’m going back to the well this week, especially since he’s significantly cheaper. When you roster Hideki, you always run the risk of his putter being ice cold and that’s been the case in each of his last two events. He has gained 7.8 and 8.3 strokes with his ball striking, but lost a total of 4.8 strokes on the greens. Luckily, he much prefers bentgrass and poa annua grass over bermudagrass. With his ball striking being in such good shape and with his scrambling being elite, we just need one good week with the putter for him to contend.
Finally Figured the Driver Out
Woodland was one of the top point-per-dollar plays in my model last week, but I was hesitant to write him up as a core play. He had lost strokes (and a lot of them) off the tee in each of his previous three events. He took the new driver out of his bag and went back to the one he used when he won the U.S. Open. It paid immediate dividends, as he gained 3.4 strokes off the tee. He almost always gains strokes with his irons and his putter has been red-hot since the restart. That can always flip any given week, but he’s gotta have confidence on the greens after gaining 15.6 strokes putting in his last four events. If you include last week, he’s made five straight cuts at Muirfield Village with two top five finishes during that stretch.
Way Too Cheap... Even in this Stacked Field
The only possible negative with Casey is that in the last five years, he has only played this event one time and he missed the cut. If you look back another year, he gained 7.9 strokes with his ball striking en route to a T13 at this course. There are only two golfers ranked in the top 10 in this field in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach and he’s one of them (Viktor Hovland is the other). I would argue that Casey has the slightly better short game between the two and he’s $1,600 cheaper. I’m not saying to avoid Hovland, just pointing out how cheap Casey is this week. He’s made 17 straight cuts on tour with three top five finishes during that stretch.
Cut Maker in Good Form
Hadwin didn’t have the best weekend at the Workday Charity Open, but he still managed to post a top 35 finish. This was one week removed from a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In total, he’s made five of six cuts at Muirfield Village, which is impressive given the fact that he’s a better golfer now than he was five years ago. He’s gained strokes on approach and with his putter in six straight events, which is a lethal combination at any course. With a slightly bigger emphasis on hitting fairways this week, that should help Hadwin as he’s not the longest off the tee. He can typically keep it together around the green, so let’s hope the irons and putting combo continues.
Massive Tournament Appeal
Patrick Cantlay is the safe pick and would likely be my preferred choice in cash games, but I really love the potential for Rahm in tournaments. Rahm won’t get the same buzz that the likes of Woods, Cantlay, McIlroy, and DeChambeau are getting in this loaded field, especially since Rahm struggled through three rounds here a week ago. Well, Rahm quietly shot a blistering 64 on Sunday. What is even more impressive is that he did that while not even gaining a full stroke with the flat stick. He made eight birdies and an eagle while gaining over SIX strokes on the field from tee to green. Rahm has a reputation as a careless bomber, but that feels like an unfair generalization. He will be aggressive when he needs to be, but he also dials it back at times. Rahm currently ranks fifth on Tour in ball striking in the 2019-2020 season, and I think he has the potential to sneak in for a win when people are least expecting it.
Affordable and Consistent
After struggling through the fall and winter portion of the schedule, Glover has looked like a new golfer since the PGA Tour resumed play. He has been incredibly consistent during that stretch, with finishes of 23rd, 21st, 20th, and 21st in four starts. That’s remarkable. Talk about a narrow range of finishes! He currently ranks 15th on Tour in ball striking and 3rd in total driving. He ranks 27th in strokes gained on approach. Everything looks solid, and that is despite the fact that he had a bad start in the fall and winter (as the PGA Tour “year” reflects a rolling year that starts in the fall). Glover has also made the cut in each of the last five editions of this tournament. He may not have much win equity at this stage of his career, but you don’t need that at this salary. Glover is a safe value in any DFS format.
Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report ahead of Workday Charity Open
For the first time in a few weeks, the PGA Tour is set to play a tournament without any positive COVID Test results. With just about 10 minutes until roster lock, there is no major news to report. K.J. Choi is the only player to pull out of this week’s event after pricing was released. ReslutsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!!
Weather update for The Workday Charity Open
Kevin Roth’s weather report for this week’s Workday Charity Open has just been recently updated and is now available to read on his weather page. With Thursday appearing to a pretty even weather draw, gamers will have to make a guess on how Friday’s weather forecast plays out in order to predict any edge. With a chance of stronger winds and perhaps some storms late on Friday afternoon, there is a chance that the late Thursday/ early Friday wave could end up with the favorable draw for the week. With a possibility of delays, there is a chance that Friday afternoon golfers avoid the high winds which would negate the potential edge. The uncertainty of the timing of Friday’s storms makes weather a tiebreaker this week, and less of a reason to fade a player you really like. Stacking tee time waves however is a great way for those with MME builds is a good way to gain exposure to any weather draws for the week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Jason Day is in need of a good week
Jason Day finds himself in somewhat of an unusual situation. With five missed cuts already this season ( 3 since the restart), Day is in jeopardy of having his worse season ever on The PGA Tour. Currently, outside of the top 100 in this year’s FedEx Cup standings, Day clearly has his work cut out if he plans on finishing the season strong. The good news is that Day played his ten rounds of par since the restart at a combined score of seven under par. Last week’s missed cut at 4 under is a great example of a player who is close to playing well and could get looked over as simply just a missed cut. Currently projected to have a sub 6% ownership number for the week, Day is the type of player that could make a difference in a GPP. Day lives in the area and has played more than his fair share of golf at Muirfield Village. For those who are willing to take a risk on what has been a long term talent in the world of golf, this is a great buy-low spot on a player with a ton to prove.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Matthew Fitzpatrick to debut a new caddie this week
Due to the COVID pandemic, Matthew Fitzpatrick has been without his regular caddie during the PGA Tour restart. After using a fill-in caddie for the first three weeks of the restart Fitzpatrick will have a long time Phil Mickelson caddie Jim “Bones” MacKay on the bag for the next two events at Muirfield Village. Since retiring from Mickelson’s bag MacKay has been an on-course reporter for NBC/Golf Channel. When news surfaced that Fitzpatrick needed a caddie for the next two weeks, MacKay reached out to offer his services. In addition to getting one of the most respected caddies in the game, Fitzpatrick will also gain a bunch of local knowledge from MacKay over the next two weeks.
As reported by: PGA Tour Yahoo-Specific Value
Stallings has established himself as a streaky golfer over the years, and he’s on the upswing right now. He has made four straight cuts now, and that includes a whopping 38 total birdies in the last two events. He has reasonably solid course history with five made cuts in his last six trips to Muirfield Village, and I like the scoring potential here. He grades out average statistically, but I’m more inclined to target him in GPPs when he is playing well, as he has since the restart (53rd, 48th, 6th, 39th). That’s an average finish in the 36th place range, and most of those were in events with much stronger fields. He has extra appeal on Yahoo, where he checks in at the bare minimum $20 salary.