DFS Alerts
Close to a Breakthrough
If you have rostered Homa either of the last two weeks, then you have been on the wrong side of a cut sweat. He bogeyed the 18th hole on Friday at the Workday Charity Open to miss the cut on the number and he did the exact same thing at the Memorial Tournament. Afterwards, he Tweeted that he’s working too hard not to see a breakthrough soon and that he’s going to play great golf the rest of the season. His ball striking numbers have been just fine since the restart and they look even better compared to the golfers in this week’s field. There are only two golfers in this field that are ranked in the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee and in strokes gained approach and Homa is one of them. While he didn’t play great here last year, he’s seen the course and did make the cut.
A Golf Course Tailor-Made to his Strengths
I’m writing this before the first set of ownership projections has been released. I’m not exactly sure where the ownership for Rodgers will end up, but I doubt he will be the chalk in the mid range. I included him as a value play last week and he certainly didn’t disappoint at the Memorial Tournament, finishing T18 at less than 1% ownership. The huge jump in salary isn’t ideal, but we have a much weaker fields on our hands this week. And honestly, this feels like the perfect course for him to pick up a win. I like bombers and guys that can gain strokes putting. He certainly fits the mold, as he’s ninth in driving distance and fifth in strokes gained putting on bentgrass over the last 50 rounds. He may not be the safest play on the board given how often he misses cuts, but he posts a ton of top 25s when he’s able to stick around and play the weekend.
First in Ball Striking Since the Restart
Before the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Redman had everything in his favor. His ball striking was elite in the two events prior and he had a top 10 at that event the year before. This led to him being both overpriced and over-owned. This time around is a bit different. He missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament last week and he nearly finished dead last at this event last year. I don’t expect him to be low owned, but I do think he’s a better play this week given his salary and ownership combination. Since the restart, he has gained more strokes ball striking than anyone in this field (+27 in only 18 rounds). This course rewards elite ball striking, as we saw Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa finish first and second here without gaining any strokes putting.
When Everything Aligns, Sometimes you have to Eat the Chalk
When building lineups for single-entry or three-max contests (or even for MME), I love to see consistency from my golfers. Since the restart, it’s hard to find someone that has been more consistent than Glover. He has played in all five events and has finished no worst than T38. During that stretch, here are his ball striking stats relative to the field: +7.2, +4.7, +5.6, +9.3, and +2.3. His price is more than affordable around the industry and I currently have him ranked as the fifth best play overall this week (without factoring in salary). It doesn’t hurt that he played here last year and finished in a tie for seventh thanks to a really strong week of ball striking and putting. Form, course history, and an affordable price tag. He checks all the boxes.
One Bad Hole Led to a Better Price Point
If you didn’t get burned by the eight Casey made on the par three last week, then you ran amazing. The same can be said about not getting burned by DeChambeau’s 10 on the par five. I am always willing to throw out a missed cut, especially when it was caused by something as random as a snowman. Casey still managed to battle back and almost make the cut. He’s one of the best ball strikers in the world and is ranked second in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach in this field. He’s also in the top 10 in birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, and greens in regulation. His biggest struggles have always been on and around the greens. We don’t really have to worry about his scrambling, as he should hit nearly 80% of greens this week. He’ll need to gain a little with his putter if he’s eventually going to win, but his ball striking should be good enough to get him into contention.
Projections for The 3M Open are live
Projections for this week’s 3M Open are now live. The five players tagged in this alert have all decided to take a pass on playing this week and have been removed from projections. This week’s field is by far the weakest field since the restart. Many players will have significant price bumps in order to cover the various pricing ranges for the week. With the first WGC of the restart and our first major of the year right around the corner, it’s no surprise to see many top players take this week off. It’s worth noting that Tommy Fleetwood is making his first start since The Players Championship.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Other tagged players: Jason Kokrak, Grayson Murray, Chris Couch, J.J. Henry
Five Minutes to roster lock at The Memorial, no major news to report
Outside of Brandt Snedeker’s withdrawal, it has been a very quiet week in terms of player news. ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!
Weather update for The Memorial
Kevin Roth’s weather report for this week’s Workday Charity Open has just been recently updated and is now available to read on his weather page. WIth Thursday weather being potentially ugly for most of the day we could see our first significant tee time weather draw of the restart. As the day progresses on Thursday the chances for rain and or wind increases and golfers could see wind gusts top the 25 mph range. With the Friday weather predicted to be the same throughout the day, the disparity in the weather draw will most likely take place on Thursday. Keep in mind that weather could suspend things on Thursday throwing a small wrench in the idea of one wave having an edge. If you are building multiple lineups this week then you can stack tee time waves in order to gain a potential edge.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Time To Get Rolling
Analysis coming soon.I have stayed away from Benny An ever since the restart, watching him miss cut after cut at double-digit ownership every week. To his own credit, he was mocking himself on social media throughout his struggles. Well, something finally clicked for him last Friday. He was a ridiculous six-under par over his first nine holes on the day, and that allowed him to get inside the cut line… for a while. He lost the mojo after a rain delay and ended up a couple of shots short of making the weekend. However, he still gained over three strokes on approach for the day, and he has always putted better at the Memorial. Perhaps he likes the faster greens that we will see this week. In any case, he is capable of a top 20 finish based on his ball-striking ability, and early ownership projections have him in the 3-5% range. He is capable of firing plenty of darts around this course, and his history at this tournament is spectacular. Throw all that in with the low ownership and a price tag that keeps getting cheaper? He also tees off first thing Thursday morning before the winds pick up. I’ll take it.
Rising To The Top
Early ownership projections are interesting this week. Just two weeks ago, NOBODY in the DFS community could get enough of the buff, bombing, winning Bryson DeChambeau. Bryson is the buzz of golf right now. He won an event, took a week off, and now is barely the highest priced golfer on the board. Given those factors, you would expect him to easily be the highest owned golfer on the board. Not so fast. Our early projections have him behind the likes of Cantlay, Woods, McIlroy, Casey, and a few others. That is ridiculous. Remember, Bryson has posted finishes of 9th place or better in seven of his last eight events. That is elite stuff. He’s hitting the ball 350+ off the tee with regularity. He is going to continue to gain massive amounts of strokes off the tee as long as he does not get injured. Oh, and he also won here two years ago. As long as the ownership doesn’t spike, I’ll gladly be overweight (no pun intended) on DeChambeau in my GPP builds this week
Adam Hadwin provides a great source of value
Due to the strength of this week’s field, there are few players you can look to attack in terms of a pricing discount. Adam Hadwin stands out as one of the stronger discount golfers in this week’s field. Since the restart, Hadwin is 4 for 4 cuts made highlighted by a 4th place finish two weeks ago at The Rocket Mortgage Classic. Hadwin did stumble a bit last weekend to post a top 35 finish at The WorkDay Charity Open, but with a similar type performance, this weekend would do little to disappoint at his price point for the week. Hadwin is 4 for 5 in cuts made at The Memorial which only includes one top 20 or better finish. The choice to add Hadwin to a roster pool this week is more about safety than upside, but at the discount, a top 35 performance will more than pay off his price for the week.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Brandt Snedeker is no longer in the field
Brandt Snedeker is no longer in this week’s Memorial field. There will not be a replacement for Snedeker and the field currently sits at 131 golfers. At this time there is no injury news associated with this move.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Marc Leishman looks to bounce back from a disappointing missed cut
With very poor play over the first two rounds of last week’s WorkDay Charity Open, Marc Leishman should end up as a golfer that many in the DFS community mark as an easy no play for this week’s Memorial. Recent form biases could create a great opportunity to take a shot on a golfer with a proven track record at this course. Outside of last week’s poor play, Leishman has an excellent record at Muirfield Village. Prior to last week’s poor showing, Leishman has shot 70 or better 12 out of his last 20 rounds at Muirfield Village. During that same time frame, Leishman has gained an average of 1.8 shots tee to green. Currently predicted to have an ownership level of less than 6% Leishman has the upside to be a difference-maker for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Rory Sabbatini continues to be a horse for this course
One week after a very disappointing missed cut, Rory Sabbatini, rebounded with a very strong top 20 finish. Priced-down in this limited strong field, Sabbatini could once again be a difference-maker in his salary range. With his 17th place finish at last week’s WorkDay Charity Open, Sabbatini now has a top 30 or better in 8 of his last 11 starts at Muirfield Village. With five of those top 30 or better finishes coming inside the top 20 Sabbatini provides upside needed to be a difference-maker for the week. Despite a less than desirable final round at last week’s WorkDay Charity Open, Sabbatini gained strokes across the board last week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Jim Furyk looks to bounce back from a disappointing week
At the age of 50, Jim Furyk still feels he has the game to compete with the best players in the world. Prior to last week’s WorkDay Charity Open, Furyk represented a great source of value for the week. Unable to overcome an ugly opening round of 75 Furyk missed the cut by just one shot. Playing in his 25th Memorial tournament Furyk will look to bounce back this week. Since the restart, Furyk is 2 for 4 in made cuts but has played better than the box score would indicate. Furyk’s other missed cut since the restart came at the RBC Heritage where he shot 2 under for the first two rounds of golf missing the cut by just two shots. Priced-down in this strong field, Furyk projects as one of the better point per play dollar options in the RotoGrinders Model for the week. A made cut ( 21 career Memorial made cuts) and a top 30 finish ( 15 career Memorial top 30 or better finishes) will easily pay off the salary for Furyk this week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool