DFS Alerts
Sneaky Upside
I absolutely love Horschel in tournaments this week. His last two events have both seen him end up missing the cut in heartbreaking fashion, and that eats at DFS players. We’re all bitter at the close missed cuts, when in reality it’s a much worse sign when golfers are missing cuts by several strokes. Welcome to the world of psychology. In any case, Muirfield Village sets up better for Horschel’s game than some of the other venues we have seen since the restart. Horschel often plays better on tougher tracks, and I would doubt we see a four-under or five-under cut line this week. Horschel finished 9th at last year’s Memorial Tournament on this course, and I expect a bounce-back week. We also get the nice bonus that will come from him being cheaper to roster and also checking in with lower ownership. He ranks 42nd on Tour in ball striking, and there is no doubt that I will definitely be overweight in GPP builds.
Safety and Upside
I’m always a sucker for Woodland, and that is not going to change at Muirfield Village. Woodland has seemingly been the top ranked ball striker on Tour for what seems like two years now, and he remains at the top of that metric. He also ranks 10th on Tour in par five scoring. In other words, he checks all the boxes for success around this place. He has made the cut in six of the last seven events that have been played here, and he has four career top 25’s at Muirfield Village. He will be one of the first players in my lineups this week, no matter the format. There’s a nice blend of safety and upside here. There is at least a small cause for concern with his lagging statistics over his last few events, but I’m willing to attribute some of that to rust after the COVID-induced layoff. We can hope that serves to keep his ownership in check, as that’s priced in to his relatively affordable tag.
Rory Sabbatini looks to bounce back from an off week
Despite both a positive course fit and great recent form, Rory Sabbatini struggled to play well at last week’s Rocket Mortgage. Sabbatini hit some quality shots in his first round last week, much better than his score of 76 would indicate. The combo of zero birdies ( multiple looks inside of 10 feet) and a few bad holes left Sabbatini in too big of a hole on a course that played pretty easy. Heading into this week’s event with a pretty big price discount, Sabbatini looks to be a decent source of value. For those with a short memory, Sabbatini could be a difference-maker this week. Sabbatini has 8 career top 30 or better finishes in 12 tournaments at Muirfield Village.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown
Top Overall Play on the Slate
Patty Cantlay is one of my favorite golfers on tour, and someone I am often looking to fit into my DFS lineups. We have only seen him once since the restart, but he did not disappoint, finishing 11th at the Travelers while gaining strokes in every single category across the board. He checks the box for course history fans as well, finishing 1, 4, and 35 at Memorial the past three years. I like Cantlay in all formats this week as a high floor / high upside combination, and there is enough value to afford his pretty reasonable price tag. He will come with ownership, but with good reason. In my opinion, he is the top overall play on the slate.
This Golfer Checks All the Boxes
Varner has been a regular target of mine since the restart and I see no reason why I shouldn’t go back to the well this week. He’s coming off of a T30 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he gained over five strokes ball striking. The week before he gained over seven strokes ball striking. He also accomplished this feat two weeks before that. In total, he’s gained 20.8 strokes ball striking in the first four events back. Additionally, he’s one of eight golfers in the field to rank in the top 30 in both birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. This gives him a solid floor and a solid ceiling. He’s played here three times over the years, making two cuts.
Ball Striking Phenom
Dahmen admitted he took some time off from golf during the break, but blew up on social media after posting his round of 58 with his buddies. He made an appearance on the Outlaw Tour and has been firing on all cylinders since the restart — T19, T48, and T20. Over those three events, he has gained a combined 16.3 strokes ball striking. His off the tee and irons have both been sharp, which could come in handy this week. The downside is that he doesn’t have the best short game, but if the course officials are going to set it up a little easier for the first of the double header, this should benefit golfers like Dahmen. While a T68 isn’t much, it’s worth noting that he did make the cut here in his debut last season.
Perfect Course Fit and He's Got the Course History to Back it
Benny An hasn’t been all that sharp since the restart of the PGA Tour. He made the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge, but had the worst final round in the field and dropped all the way down to T60. He followed that up with a missed cut at the RBC Heritage where he had one of his worst four ball striking performances of his career. He then made the cut at the Travelers Championship, but only finished T43. While his start isn’t all that promising, he gained nearly three strokes ball striking his last time out and he tends to play his best on courses where the greens are hard to hit. This makes a lot of sense, as he’s a great ball striker and a great scrambler. When greens are easy to hit and it becomes a putting contest, he’s obviously out of luck. He clearly loves Muirfield Village, posting four straight top 25 finishes here including a second back in 2018.
Trending Upward + Elite Course History
Since the restart, Rose has posted finishes of T3, T14, and a missed cut. He ditched his Honma irons during the break and it’s clearly done wonders for his game — currently third in strokes gained tee to green (per round) since the restart. He tends to play well on difficult courses and he’s certainly played well at Muirfield Village in the past. Check out his finishes the last six times he’s played here — T8, T6, T2, MC, T8, and T8. His game is trending in the right direction and he should feel rejuvenated after taking last week off.
Former Winner Here Coming Off a Great Ball Striking Week
Matsuyama missed the cut in his first event back from the break and struggled a bit in his first round at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Apparently, three rounds was his magic number to knock off the rust. He was solid in the last three rounds and vaulted up the leaderboard. He ended the week T21 while gaining nearly eight strokes on the field with his ball striking. He’s not a great putter, but bentgrass is his preferred surface. He’s elite with his irons and around the green, which is the key to success around Muirfield Village. Since 2014, he’s won here and has two more top 10 finishes on this course.
K.J. Choi is no longer in the field
K.J. Choi has decided to take a pass on this week’s event. He will be replaced in the field by Chase Seiffert.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Fifteen minutes to roster lock, no major news to report ahead of Rocket Mortgage Classic
After a handful of player movement on Monday, there is no news to report ahead of round one of The Rocket Mortgage Classic. Stewart Cink and Harris English withdrew early in the week due to COVID-19. Cameron Champ was a late add to the field, but will not be available in pricing pools until round 2. After testing false positive for COVID last week, the Tour added Champ as the 157th golfer in this week’s field. He will play the first two rounds as a single. Please make sure to double-check your lineups for any of the players tagged in this alert. Good luck this week grinders. ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock.
Other tagged players: Stewart Cink Matthew Wolff stands out as a strong value option
Last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic marked just the second career professoinal start for Matthew Wolff. The highly touted amateur known for his very unique swing was not able to overcome an opening-round 75 en route to a missed cut. In the year that has since passed Wolff has experienced both the highs and lows of life on the PGA tour. In addition to winning last fall Wolff has twice as many missed cuts as he does top 25 finishes. For game log watchers it will be easy to overlook back to back missed cuts by Wolff prior to this week, but with 3 of his last 4 rounds at par or better, this former OSU golfer is in better form ahead of this week than a missed cut would indicate. Wolff is an intriguing value golfer for the week as he typically plays the type of golf that is needed to compete at The Rocket Mortgage Classic. Birdies will be a premium on what could be an easy track, and Wolff has an aggressive style that could be a difference-maker.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Doc Redman trending as a top ownership play
At this point last week a Doc Redman was trending at a sub 7% projected ownership with a very reasonable $6700 price tag. Redman ended up at almost 10% ownership and with a T11 finish, he was a difference-maker for many in the world of DFS at The Travelers Championship. In what is shaping up to be a very weak field it is still somewhat surprising to see an $8500 Doc Redman (20%) near the top of this week’s projected ownership numbers. Redman comes into this week in excellent form, and if you combine that with his second-place finish at this event last year it’s easy to see how people could fall in love with him again this week. For those who are always looking to fade the chalk golfers, there are plenty of good reasons to scratch or go underweight on Redman in your player pool. At $8500 you would probably need a top 10 from Redman to contend in any large field GPP. ‘s. This week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic marks Redman’s 28th start on The PGA Tour, and while he has shown flashes early in his career, his only top 10 finish came at this very event last year. If Redman were to finish outside the top 10 but still post a very respectable T25 or better finish, his price tag would not kill your lineups but it would still be very hard to compete in large field GPP’s. Redman has 8 top 25 or better finishes his 27 starts on tour, and with two of those coming in the last two weeks it’s easy to see how ownership is trending his way. From a game theory standpoint, a high priced and high owned Redman is more likely to finish somewhere between 15th and 40th than he is inside the top 10. At his price and expected ownership, you can look to go underweight on Redman this week in GPP’s and maybe instead gain offsetting exposure to a talented and trending golfer by betting him to win( 47 to 1).
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Field update for The Rocket Mortgage Classic
After an adventure-filled day of news on Monday, there is hope that this year’s Rocket Morgage Classic will play through the week without further interruption. The above players tagged in this alert have been added to the player pool and now have projections in LineupHQ. Surprisingly Kurt Kitayama has a higher price tag than many established PGA Tour players. In his limited starts on the PGA Tour Kitayama has yet to post a top ten or better finish. As a two time winner of the European PGA Tour Kitayama does have plenty of experience in the world of professional golf, but his high price tag makes his addition to a roster a very tough choice for the week. George McNeill is by far the most accomplished on this list but comes into this event in less than desirable form. McNeill has two career PGA Tour wins but has struggled to find many starts on Tour over the past few seasons. For now, this group of players at best should be considered a one-off large field GPP dart throw.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Other tagged players: Chandler Phillips, George McNeill Can't Believe I'm Backing a Golfer that Lost Six Strokes on Approach Last Week
Snedeker didn’t make my list of recommended plays the first time around, but I’m swapping him in for Doc Redman as a core play. While I still like Redman this week, I like what the $600 savings does for the rest of my lineup. I also think Snedeker is the better golfer overall. There are essentially two times we should look to load up on Sneds — on Donald Ross courses (second most strokes gained total in this field on Ross designs) and on poa greens. He gets both of those this week at the Detroit Golf Club. In an interview, he said the only reason he played this event last year was because the course was designed by Ross. He clearly had success on these greens, gaining 7.5 strokes putting. It’s always a little scary backing a golfer whose best weapon is his putter, but I can’t pass on Sneds at this price point.