DFS Alerts
Maverick McNealy trending as a good source of value
Playing in his first full season as a PGA member Maverick McNealy is a golfer we can target early in the season in terms of salary relief. Like a few other players in this field, McNealy earned his card via the season-long race on The Korn Ferry Tour. A few years removed from a very successful collegiate golf career, McNealy understands how important these fall wrap-around events are in terms of keeping his card for next season. Entering this week on the heels of back to back made cuts, McNealy will look to post his best finish of this young season at The Houston Open. Had it not been for an awful second round ( near the lead after round one) at this year’s Greenbrier event, McNealy would have entered this week having made 3 of 4 cuts with possibly a top tier type of finish. Like many other players before him, McNealy will have to learn from his mistakes if he has any hopes of making an impact at this level. In a field where the majority of players have a price bump due to the lack of overall talent, McNealy at near the bottom in terms of pricing stands out as a great choice of salary relief for the week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown
Monday qualifiers now have projections and are available in LineupHQ
Over the past few weeks, we have seen some familiar players earn spots into the current event via Monday qualifications. At times throughout the year, we can even look to target some Monday qualifiers in our MME builds. This week however is not one of those weeks. With a combined experience of less than 7 PGA Tour starts between the four Monday qualifiers it would be quite a stretch to consider the players listed above as a roster option. Andy Zhang and George Cunningham have the most experience of the four players. Zhang played a full season on the Korn Ferry tour last year but did very little in his 22 starts. Cunningham has played well in his limited starts on tour, so if anyone from this group could be considered for a GPP dart throw, then you could possibly take a stab on this Texas A&M alumni. That being said all four options should be considered long shots in terms of having a big impact this week.
As reported by: LineupHQ Other tagged players: Logan McCracken, Andy Zhang, Jeremy Gandon Henrik Stenson replaces trusted club ahead of Houston Open
Long known as one of the more accurate swingers of the golf club, Henrik Stenson had become somewhat famous for using a trusty 3 wood. More times than not Stenson would take the driver out of his bag and play courses with his 3 wood. The famous 3 wood began to show signs of wear and tear and when Stenson noticed the face had begun to cave in it became apparent that a new club would be needed. Stenson is currently testing new club models and will have a replacement 3 wood in his bag at this week’s Houston Open. Players switch clubs all the time, and we should not expect this change to effect Stenson this week. Playing in his first start of the 2020 season Stenson is the biggest name in the field this week. Looking to improve on a pair of top 7 finishes in his last 3 starts at The Golf Club of Houston.
As reported by: PGA Tour Russell Henley is looks to build on an excellent course history
In a week in which there is really not a ton to love in terms of top-end spends, Russell Henley is a golfer you can look to lean on due to a really strong course history. In his last five starts as the Houston Open, Henley has gained 57 shots tee to green. In addition to his win, Henley has 4 top 8 or better finishes at this course. One of the more impressive things about Henley is how consistent his play has been at this event over the last five seasons. In his last 20 rounds at The Golf Club of Huston, Henley is a combined 66 under par and with only 4 of those rounds at 71 or better ( par 72) this former champ makes for a great start in all formats this week.
As reported by: PGA Expert Rankings Cole Hammer in the field on a sponsors invite
Over the last few years, we have seen a major shift in how up and coming college golfers transition to professional golf. Last season we saw a handful of big named college golfers make an impact on tour right from the onset. This week we get a sneak preview of a potential star as Texas Longhorn sophmore Cole Hammer is in the field on a sponsors invite. Playing still as an amateur, this week will be different for Hammer than those who are trying to transition to professional golf. Hammer is a native Houstonian and is someone you could target as a GPP dart for the week. Hammer spent some time as the number ranked amateur in the world over the last few months and also was able to beat Matt Wolff at last year’s NCCA during the match-play portion of that event. For most in the community, this is a chance to just keep an eye on a very talented young golfer, but there is definitely a case to be made for throwing a dart or two on a golfer who has the upside to compete on this level.
As reported by: Cole Hammer Twitter Harris English continues to play well
There were many points during the 2019 season where you could have listed Harris English below the minimum price and the DFS community would still choose not to play him. Playing poorly and with nowhere to turn, English returned to The Korn Ferry Tour with hopes of securing his 2020 tour card. Although he played better, English missed out on his card by one spot and would have to make the most of early season opportunities as he would have a low reshuffle number. Flash forward to his week and English is inside the top 10 in FedEx Cup points for the season and should have no problem playing a full schedule this season. English has found something with his ball-striking as his strokes gained numbers are all strong through the first part of this season. Priced up in this weak field, there are those who might not like the idea of adding English to a roster, but his recent play certainly puts him in the discussion for one of the hotter golfers in this field. Keep in mind that English has always been a formidable putter, so now that he has both his swing and confidence back there is really no reason to not see this former PGA Tour winner in contention again.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Brendan Steele is finally starting to show sings of improvement
Brendan Steele struggled to play well at any point during the 2019 season. By far his worse season as a professional Steele managed only 3 top 25 or better showings in 22 starts last year. With a handful of weekends off during the 2019 season, Steele finished outside the top 170 in last year’s FedEx Cup race. Entering this week on the heels of 3 straight made cuts signs point to Steele playing his way out of this prolonged slump. At last week’s event in Vegas, Steele was only a total of .03 shots from gaining strokes on the field tee to green in each round. Steele is a player who relies on great ball striking and timely putting to play well. During his prolonged slump, Steele simply struggled with his ball-striking. With 8 of his last 12 rounds gaining strokes in the ball striking department we can look to target Steele in hopes that he keeps up this current trend. Currently projected at a low ownership number Steele is a person you can target in GPP builds this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Too Talented to be this Cheap in this Field
Redman is going to be very popular this week. He’s been popular at similar price points in much tougher fields, so I expect the masses to gravitate to him this week. While I don’t love eating chalk, I can afford to this week given the fact that I am playing Brian Harman at the top instead of Henrik Stenson or Russell Henley. Redman is ranked fifth in this field in strokes gained off the tee, 18th in strokes gained approach, third in greens in regulation, and eighth in birdie or better percentage. That’s awfully enticing for a golfer that’s this cheap. He’s a talented young golfer that just needs to keep it together on and around the greens. He has lost strokes with his short game in each of his last five events. While that’s not ideal, scrambling is pretty straightforward at this course. And for what it’s worth, he’s had more success putting on bentgrass than he has on bermuda in his short career. If he can run into a hot week with the putter, he could find himself in contention on Sunday.
Four Straight Top 20 Finishes
I was hesitant to buy into Griffin last week, fresh off his three straight top 20 finishes. I was scared off by the fact that most of his strokes gained came with the putter. It’s much easier to sustain good ball striking than it is to sustain good putting, at least over the long run. I was encouraged by what I saw at the Shriners, as he posted another top 20 finish. The best part is that it was all due to his tee to green play, as he gained over six strokes on the field. Looking through his game log, that’s the most strokes he has ever gained tee to green in one event. He’s playing with a ton of confidence right now and we continue to see golfers get hot during the swing season. Rather than fighting it, I will ride the hot form in hopes that Griffin can keep it going. While he missed the cut here last year, it’s good that he’s at least seen the course. He’s ranked in the top 11 in this field in birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance, which is a lethal combination.
Found Something with the Ball Striking
You know it’s a weak field when Brian Harman and Harris English are the two most expensive golfers in my core plays article. English has won multiple times on tour, but basically fell off the map for DFS for a couple of years. His tee to green game was really suspect during that stretch, which led to a lot of missed cuts and a lot of underwhelming finishes. It’s always a hard balance looking at recent vs. long-term form, but it’s a little easier to trust what we are seeing when it’s a golfer that used to be elite. He has clearly fixed whatever was holding him back. Here are his ball striking numbers over his last four events — +3.0, +5.2, +9.3, and +4.8. He has always been an elite putter, so it’s no surprise that he’s posted four straight top 40s (including two top sixes) on tour. His approach numbers above don’t look great, but again, he has been a completely different iron player over his last four events. He’s still ranked in the top 11 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, greens in regulation, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained putting.
Not Paying a Premium for Course History
One of the biggest debates in PGA DFS is whether recent form or course history is more important. That will be put to the test this week at the Houston Open, especially at the top of the field. Henrik Stenson and Russell Henley have amazing track records at this event and should garner a lot of ownership. While I plan to have exposure to both in my MME build, Harman is my preferred spend in my main lineup. He doesn’t have elite course history, but is playing some amazing golf right now. In his last five events, he has posted four top 20 finishes, including two top sixes. He used to be a golfer that we could only target on shorter tracks where putting was important, but that’s no longer the case. He has been terrific tee to green, gaining over five strokes on the field in six of his last 10 events. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game right now and I never thought I would say this, but he actually ranks first in this field in the key statistics that I have identified for this event. I like his chances to win this week and his ownership should be reasonable given how well Stenson and Henley have played here over the years.
The Key To Stars and Scrubs Builds
McNealy has yet to develop consistent success on the PGA Tour, but he fits the profile of a stars-and-scrubs type of build that I think makes a ton of sense in this weak field. There’s not a lot separating the $6,500 to $7,500 golfers on DK and the $7,500 to $8,500 golfers on FD. Why not take the discount with a golfer that has similar upside? After missing his first two cuts in the fall swing, McNealy has steadied the ship with 52nd and 37th place finishes over the last two events. He showed nice touch on and around the greens in Vegas, and he gained strokes off the tee. As long as he can dial in the approach game, I like him as a sneaky top 25 candidate at a very cheap DFS price tag.
Improving Performance, Sneaky Upside
Zhang isn’t getting the attention of other new card-carrying members like Scottie Scheffler, but Zhang has just as much potential. After a bit of a rocky start to the fall swing, Zhang has settled in with finishes of 16th and 7th over his last two events, and he closed out last week with an impressive trio of rounds that were all 67 or better. Zhang led the Korn Ferry Tour money list last year, after all, and this is basically a glorified Korn Ferry Tour field. He gained nearly seven strokes off the tee and on approach in Vegas, and those skills are paramount on this course. I like him a lot this week, and the ownership won’t be as high as it should be.
A Rising Star?
It feels weird to say this, but I would consider Griffin as one of the top point per dollar plays on the board this week. Such is life with an absurdly weak field and a lack of elite options. Griffin has started his PGA Tour career with FOUR straight top 20 finishes, and that’s very impressive at this level. The putter carried him throughout the first few starts, but he gained around four strokes on the field from tee to green last week in Vegas. I’ll continue to ride the wave as long as his confidence is high, and the sites simply haven’t priced him up enough in this field. Take the discount while you can still get it.
Positive Trends Everywhere
The trends are aligning in the right direction. I have written up Berger in this space each of the last two weeks, and that’s not going to change in a weak field event after Berger has posted back-to-back top 25 finishes to start the fall swing. He gained four strokes off the tee in Vegas and appears to be playing with more confidence than we have seen with him in quite some time. Oh, and he’s also played in Houston four times — posting top 25 finishes in all four of his previous trips. Everything is coming up roses! I think that the high price tag combined with rising ownership will keep some people away, and don’t be surprised if Berger ends up being lower owned than a lot of experts think. I’m going to very much be overweight this week, and I’m rooting for him to take home a victory.