DFS Alerts
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
There is no major news to report ahead of the first round. There is a chance that we have a weather bais draw that favors golfers who play early today. From a showdown slate perspective, you could take advantage of this potential draw by stacking some early wave golfers for Thursday’s round. The combination of lower expected winds and better-putting surfaces could lead to a stronger morning draw for round number one. Friday weather should be pretty equal for both draws thus weakening the chances of a strong overall tee time draw for the first two days. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Brooks Koepka set to return to action after knee treatment in the offseason
Brooks Koepka is set to make his fifth career start at TPC Summerlin this week. Koepka is two for four in cuts made with two top-five or better finishes. Koepka last played this event two years ago finishing runner up to Rod Pampling. At that point in time Koepka was not quite the golfer that we know now. Now currently the number one golfer in the world Koepka has won four career majors and is considered the favorite to win almost any tournament he enters. In his pre-tournament press conference, Koepka revealed that he had a minor knee procedure done in the offseason. Pain-free Koepka is now able to practice more than he did last season. Fresh off what you might consider a player of the year snub, Koepka could have extra motivation to play well more often in non-major tournament golf.
As reported by: The Golf Channel Weather update for The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Kevin Roth’s weather report for The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open is up in the main forum. With the wind in play the first two days there could be a small advantage to tee time stacking for the week. Wind speeds pick late on Thursday with chances of gusts reaching the 15 mph range. Friday looks to be a pretty even draw in terms of weather with winds only reaching 10mph throughout the day. The weather draw looks to be small if anything, but if you are playing the showdown slate on Thursday you could look to play the majority of your golfers in the morning wave.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Aaron Wise stands out as a great source of value
Like many other successful PGA Tour rookies before him, Aaron Wise struggled to perform well in his second full season as a pro. With his sophomore slump now behind him, Wise is a player you can target early this season as price does not really reflect talent. Like a few other players in this week’s field, TPC Summerlin is pretty much a home game for Wise. His longtime coach Jeff Smith works at TPC Summerlin and Wise spends plenty of time at the facility. Making his fourth start at The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Wise will look to build on positive course history. In his 3 starts at TPC Summerlin Wise has gained 18 shots tee to green and has two top 15 or better finishes. Wise is an excellent source of value on the main slate, but perhaps an even better play on the showdown slates. With inflated prices baked into showdown slates( 4 rounds vs 1 round) Wise has a better than average chance of being one of the top points per dollar golfers over the first two rounds of play.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Emiliano Grillo looks to bounce back from a poor putting week
Game log watchers will find it pretty easy to exclude Emiliano Grillo as a person of interest heading into Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Grillo followed up a disappointing top 40 finish in Napa with a missed cut at last week’s Safeway Open. A good habit to get into when evaluating a player’s performance is to try and look past scores and focus on some important stats. When you look at Grillo’s six rounds played this season it’s pretty easy to see that he has just not found any kind of magic with the putter. Grillo has gained strokes on the field with his irons in all six rounds and lost strokes with his putter in five of six rounds. Grillo with a price drop and what appears to be a decrease in interest makes for a great value tournament choice this week. Gaining strokes on the green is an area that typically can change in a fast manner, so with a player who typically hits a ton of good iron shots this is a good spot to buy low with hopes of Grillo turning the corner.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Charles Howell is a West Coast specialist that is flying under the radar this week
Sometimes narratives in sport are stronger than the actual results. Charles Howell and playing well early on the season ( West Coast Golf) is one of the more accurate narratives on tour. For many years Howell would start off the season strong to only fade later in the year. By playing in his first tour championship in 8 years Howell ended up proving the second half of his narrative wrong last season. Fresh off a top-five finish at last week’s Safeway Open ( sub 10% ownership), Howell heads into another West Coast type event with a ton of positive momentum on his side. Howell has made his last four cuts at TPC Summerlin highlighted by 3 top 20 or better showings. Once again trending towards a low ownership number Howell has the makings of a great option in all formats this week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Scott Piercy looks to build on a great course history
The home game narrative will be something used a lot this week. Scott Piercy is one of the longer-tenured Vegas residents in this week’s field and has plenty of experience playing at TPC Summerlin. Not only does he play and practice at this venue, but Piercy’s swing coach Jeff Smith is also one of the teaching professionals at TPC Summerlin. Smith has a handful of players in this week’s field including Aaron Wise and Cameron Champ. In his last five starts at this event, Piercy is 51 under par and has gained almost 30 shots tee to green. With plenty of fresh new faces on Tour, players like Piercy get a noticable price discount for the week. You could argue that his price is off anywhere between $500 and $1000 for the week. The combination of that discount and his strong form makes Piercy a great place to look for mid-priced value this week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool John Oda Monday qualifies for the second week in a row
Monday qualifying for PGA Tour events is perhaps one of the most challenging things for a professional golfer. With only 4 spots available for 144 or more golfers, there is no room for any mistakes. Fresh off Monday qualifying for last week’s Safeway Open, John Oda posted a bogey-free 64 to make his second straight PGA Tour start. Oda and the 3 other Monday qualifiers have been added to LineupHQ. Oda made the cut last week finishing inside the top 45. Joining Oda as Monday qualifiers are fellow professionals Andrew Novak and Dylan Wu. Standford senior golfer and number 11 ranked amateur in the world Isaiah Salinda also shot 64 and will play in this week’s event.
As reported by: LineupHQ Other tagged players: Dylan Wu, Isaiah Salinda Home Game Narrative
Wise didn’t go to college at UNLV like many of the golfers in the field, but he does live and train in Las Vegas. So essentially, this is still a home game for him. He’s a very talented young golfer that already has a win on tour. He fell off the map a bit after his first win, but that happens with many young golfers. He’s traded in his upside for consistency lately, making six straight cuts but finishing no better than T35. It seems to be a different part of his game that lets him down at each event. I see that as a positive because all four parts of his game could easily come together at the same time, especially on a course that he clearly has taken a liking to. Wise has played here each of the last three seasons, posting finishes of T15, T32, and T10. I’m expecting a big year from Wise and will be playing him early and often in DFS.
A Great Putter that has been Great Tee to Green Recently
Harman is my second favorite point-per-dollar play of the week, trailing only the golfer listed below him in this article. For the longest time, Harman was a golfer that was bad off the tee and bad with his irons. He would make up for it with an elite short game. I’m not sure what happened along the way, but it’s basically flipped over the last six months. He’s been very good tee to green (gained at least five strokes on the field in seven of his last 10 events), but hasn’t had much success with the putter. If he can continue this new found ball striking and have a good week with the putter (which we know he’s capable of), he could not only contend, but win here in the next few weeks. He has three top 15 finishes in his last four events on tour and he posted a T15 in his last appearance at this event (2016). He’s too cheap across the industry, both in terms of his price in DFS and in terms of his betting odds.
Ball Striking has been on Point
This should be a good course for Kokrak, but he’s never had much success here (to be fair, he’s still made four of his last five cuts at this event). Perhaps he likes to party it up in Vegas or perhaps this is the best he’s played in his career so it’s a little unfair to compare his recent results with ones from many years ago. Statistically, he’s a perfect fit for TPC Summerlin. In this field, he’s ranked ninth in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in strokes gained approach, 11th in greens in regulation, and 24th in birdie or better percentage. He missed the cut his last time out (Greenbrier), but it was right on the number and solely due to his putter. He actually gained over four strokes ball striking in only two rounds. Before that event, he had posted four straight top 20 finishes. His putter will always be an issue, but his inability to scramble should be negated by easy to hit greens and great weather in the forecast this week.
Good Course History and Ready for a Breakthrough
Has Finau won on tour? Technically. Does anyone treat the Puerto Rico Open as a real win? Absolutely not. I’ve long said that his first real PGA Tour win is going to come on bentgrass greens and/or at the U.S. Open. This is the closest event to his home (Utah) and unlike many in the field, he’s not going to be swayed by the distractions of Vegas. He has played here in each of the last five years and he’s never missed a cut. In fact, he has never finished outside of the top 45. These are bentgrass greens and this is a course that rewards elite ball striking. The only knock that I can find on Finau is that he’s played the last two events over on the Euro Tour. While he played well in both the BMW PGA Championship (T51) and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (T10), that’s a lot of travel and golf in a three-week stretch. Clearly, this event means enough for him to make the trip back to the states.
Ryan Moore enters the week in a great bounce back spot
When FanDuel released prices last week it’s almost as they knew Ryan Moore would end up missing the cut. Priced at the bare minimum for last week’s Safeway Open, Moore was a plug and play on FanDuel for the week. Unable to get anything going over the first two rounds Moore missed the cut and enters this week as a potential low owned bounce-back candidate. This former UNLV standout and current Las Vegas resident will have a home game this week and despite his poor play at The Safeway Open Moore is someone you can target as a good bet to bounce back this week. In addition to winning this event in 2011 Moore has made 11 of 13 cuts at TPC Summerlin. Always a good iron player, Moore has gained almost ten strokes tee to green in his last five starts at this event. Currently projected at sub 5% ownership Moore makes for a great player add in terms of mixing in value golfers for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Graham DeLaet set to return after a long layoff
Graham DeLaet has not played a round of PGA Tour golf since October of 2017. Forced to miss this extended time with a back injury, DeLaet will make his return to tour action via a major medical extension. Needing to earn less than 300 FedEx Cup points in his 24 starts a healthy DeLaet should have no problem securing his card via that medical extension. Prior to his injury DeLaet was a golfer who you could feel comfortable targeting as a value option most weeks. Much like Bo Van Pelt at last week’s Safeway, we should take a wait and see approach with DeLaet.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Phenomenal Top-End Play
Cantlay is the top option on this week’s board. To suggest any other golfer as the top overall option in this field seems somewhat foolish — despite the presence of Brooks Koepka in the field. After all, this isn’t a major tournament, so Koepka can’t win! (Note the sarcasm font). As for the actual point, Cantlay has played here in each of the last two years — finishing first and second in those two visits. That’s not too shabby, is it? His game is a fantastic fit for TPC Summerlin, and we know he can go low with the best of them. Cantlay ranked 6th on Tour in the 2018-2019 season in birdie or better percentage. He also ranked 10th in strokes gained on approach. He should be rested and ready to go for a new season. It would surprise nobody if he found his way back to the winners’ circle.
