DFS Alerts
Elite Ball Striker with Course History
Grillo picked up his first and only career win at this event back in 2015. It was his rookie season and he started it off with a bang. In three appearances since, he has never missed a cut and has two top 30 finishes. I’m loading up on ball strikers this week and taking my chances with below-average putters in hopes that everything can line up just right. Grillo is ranked 11th in this field in strokes gained off the tee and first in strokes gained approach. Scrambling here has been fairly simple over the years, which could help Grillo since that’s not the strongest part of his game. A T39 finish last week isn’t going to jump off the page, but his ball striking was great. He lost 5.6 strokes putting, which is abysmal even for a bad putter. He seems to be comfortable on the poa greens in Napa, as he’s gained over a stroke putting his four appearances combined.
Is this the Week?
Benny An has won an event on the Euro Tour, but is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour. He came so close again last week, ultimately finishing just outside of the playoff between Sebastian Munoz and Sungjae Im. He was ranked inside the top 20 in every strokes gained category, so his game is clearly trending in the right direction. You can’t afford to make bogeys this week in Napa because this will be a birdie fest. It should bode well for An, who is ranked first in the field in bogey avoidance and second in strokes gained around the green. We know he’s a great ball striker that is going to gain strokes off the tee and on his approaches, so it really all comes down to the putter. It’s only a matter of time before he breaks through with a win and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it happen this week on a course that should fit his game nicely.
Still Far Too Cheap
It seems like the masses are forgetting about Doc Redman, and I’m not really sure why that is the case. His price remains extremely affordable everywhere, and the ball striking has stayed intact despite a few hiccups elsewhere in his game. Redman gained four strokes on approach ones again last week at the Sanderson Farms, and he ranks 25th on Tour in ball striking through two events in the 2019-2020 season. Yes, this is an absurdly small sample size, but he popped with his approach game at times over the summer as well. The layout of this course should suit his game nicely, and I’m loving him as a value play for this event despite the fact that it is his first trip to the venue.
A Fine GPP Mid Range Play
This is a really interesting spot for Varner. It doesn’t profile as the absolute greatest course for his game, but I get the feeling that this might be the year where we see Varner develop more consistency. It was often one poor round that hurt him in events last year, and the upside is definitely there if he can make those “blow up” rounds happen with a little less frequency. He basically graded out in the middle of the pack statistically (ranked between 60th and 90th in ball striking, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained on approach) last year, but his good rounds are really good — while his bad rounds are really bad. I like the fact that he is playing here for the fifth time, too. He has made the cut in each of his first four visits with a pair of top 20 finishes. That kind of course history is enough for me to climb aboard with a golfer of his talent level, especially at reasonable price tags everywhere.
Elite Talent
While I think it’s prudent to try to start with Justin Thomas in some lineups, I’m all on board the Morikawa train. His ball striking is absolutely elite, and this course is a perfect fit for his skill set. He grew up in California and is familiar with these poa greens, and he won the Barracuda Championship last year… in Nevada on poa greens. That win doesn’t get discussed much because it is an alternate field event, but Morikawa is thriving at a young age on the PGA Tour. He’s a phenomenal talent who should have a great season, and the only reason he’s not popping in a ton of models is because he didn’t have enough 2018-2019 rounds to qualify in a lot of statistical metrics. Don’t let that scare you away. He’s the real deal.
Knocking On The Door
A victory is absolutely coming soon in Benny An’s future. He fought his way into contention last week before falling just one stroke short of the playoff, and he actually gained strokes in every aspect of the game — including on the greens. If An can be even remotely competent with the putter, it could be a phenomenal season for him. He ranked well ahead of field average in ball striking, strokes gained on approach, and birdie or better percentage last year, and the current form makes him even more intriguing. Even though this is his first trip to wine country for this event, I’m only hoping that scares other people away. Ride the wave.
Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
There is no major news to report ahead of the first round. There is a chance that we have a weather bais draw that favors early Thursday and then late Friday. From a showdown slate perspective, you could take advantage of this potential draw by stacking some early wave golfers this morning. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Weather update for The Sanderson Farms Championship
Kevin Roth’s weather forecast for this week’s PGA Tour event is up in the main forum. According to Roth, there is a chance to gain an edge in terms of predicted weather this week. While the edge is not “groundbreaking” it looks like golfers who play Thursday AM and Friday PM could have less weather to deal with over the first two rounds. Rain and higher winds move increase through late Thursday afternoon. Forecasted winds ( 10mph) are expected to drop as the day progresses on Friday. By no means is this a scenario where you fade players in a draw due to weather, but you could make a case for staking either wave this week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Monday qualifiers now have projections and are available in LineupHQ
Both DraftKings and Fanduel have added the Monday qualifiers to their pricing pool for the week. All four of the golfers above have been added to LineupHq and are available to use in builds for the week. Monday qualifiers playing well ended up being a great storyline during the 2019 season, and with three of the four qualifiers for his week having a decent amount of tour experience it would not be a major surprise to see that happen again this week. Stephan Jaeger stands out as the player most likely to have a strong week. As a multiple winner on The Korn Ferry Tour, Jaeger is a player who many feel is overdue to finally start to perform well on the PGA Tour.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Other tagged players: Chip McDaniel, Adam Svensson, Garrett Osborn Harris English will look to build off a good week
The wrap-around season provides players a chance to get a jump start on the new year. After finishing in the 149 spot on last year’s FedEx Cup list, Harrish English narrowly missed securing a PGA Tour card for his year via the Korn Ferry Tour finals. Early in the year players like English ( partial tour status ) will have a chance to improve their standing in terms of tournament eligibility moving forward. With his third-place showing at The Greenbriar last week, English is now in a great spot to possibly play his way into a position that will gain him entry into more events the rest of the year. As a winner of multiple tour events, it’s never easy to consider having limited status on tour, but it appears that English is ready to face the challenge head-on, and has all the motivation in the world to play well again this week. Despite an excellent showing last week, English is a player not gaining much interest in terms of projected ownership. Playing with a bit of confidence, this two time PGA Tour winner is someone you can look to attack as a mid-range pivot off other popular players in the same price range.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Justin Rose withdrew from from The BMW Pro-Am
For those playing Euro DFS Golf this week, please take note of Justin Rose’s health prior to roster lock early Thursday morning. Rose hurt his knee last week and is considered doubtful to play in The BMW Championship. Although he has been getting treatment for the past week, the inability to play in the Pro-Am does not bode well for Rose’s chances to play this week. We will keep an eye on the status of Rose up until roster lock.
As reported by: The Golf Channel Doug Ghim looks to build on a solid start to his rookie season
Doug Ghim and Scottie Scheffler battled together as teammates for the Texas Longhorns. The line between who was a better player while teammates at Texas was always very thin. Ghim played his way to the number one ranking in the world of amateur golf toward the end of their careers, but both players enjoyed high levels of success as an amateur. Fast forward some 15 months later and Scheffler is by far in the lead in terms of making an impact as a professional golfer. That being said, Ghim is still a great talent and is a player we can roster at both a great discount in price and in ownership. His style of golf is not flashy, but Ghim is an all-around player that should cut out a niche on Tour. Looking to improve on a top 35 finish in his first event as a Tour member, Ghim is still very cheap this week and is a great option to find value in a wide range of roster builds.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Nick Taylor returns to the site of his only PGA Tour win
Poor finishes towards the end of the 2019 PGA Tour season left Nick Taylor just barely inside the top 125 in the year-end FedEx cup standings. Looking to get make the most of this newly extended wrap-around season Taylor will look to build on an excellent course history at The Country Club of Jackson. Like many other golfers in the field, Taylor has a price that we are not used to paying for, but the overall low price is a steal in comparison to others in this field. In addition to his win at The Country Club of Jackson, Taylor has three top 26 or better finishes. With only 1 round out of 16 over par at The Country Club of Jackson, Taylor has gained almost 30 shots tee to green in this tournament over the last four years. Taylor started off the season with a top 25 finish at last week’s Greenbrier event and should be in a great position to play well again this week. Currently trending at a very low projected ownership number Taylor stands out as a great play in all formats for the week. Again he is priced higher than we would normally like to pay, but his excellent course history provides enough merit to give this PGA Tour veteran roster consideration this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Johnson Wagner stands out as a great source of value
Weak field events always create a strange pricing dynamic. We usually end up with a large number of golfers overpriced in comparison to a normal field which leaves very few standout value plays for the week. Priced way down on a site like DraftKings Johnson Wagner projects as a top play in terms of Pt/$/K in our model for the week. Looking to improve on his status moving forward this PGA Tour veteran is simply too cheap in comparison to golfers in his price range. Wanger ended up making the cut last week but will need a better showing if he has hopes of improving his reshuffle number. Wagner has gained 10 shots tee to green in his last 4 starts at The Sanderson Farms Championship. With three top 35 or better finishes at The Country Club of Jackson, Wagner is in a position to meet or exceed his projection for the week and makes sense as a great source of value for GPP’s
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Elite Value
While it is Scheffler earning all the accolades, let’s not sleep on Robby Shelton as a potential breakthrough candidate in the 2019-2020 season. Shelton actually finished ahead of Scheffler on the Korn Ferry Tour money list last year (they finished 2nd and 3rd). Like Scheffler, Shelton finished in a tie for second place at the Greenbrier last week. However, Scheffler is getting a ton of buzz, while nobody is talking about Shelton. The latter is significantly cheaper on every site and doesn’t have nearly the same odds to win. However, it is my opinion that the sites are under-pricing Shelton here. This is a talented golfer who made a whopping 23 birdies a week ago. That type of scoring ability will play anywhere. Shelton is my favorite value of the week.