DFS Alerts
Potential Rebound Spot
The form has been relatively poor of late for Molinari, as he has not posted a single top ten finish since The Masters. He closed with rounds of 75 and 74 last weekend, which doesn’t inspire much confidence. However, Medinah is the type of course where he can really shine, as Molinari generally excels at keeping the ball in the fairway on longer holes moreso than some other golfers. This is mainly a speculative play based on low ownership and Molinari’s history, as his 2019 statistics are undoubtedly lagging. However, some of the statistical metrics grade out worse than his actual play, as Molinari tends to play in the more difficult events. The fact that this is a no cut event also helps with taking more of a risk/reward approach. If you want to play the motivation angle, Molinari also sits 34th in the FedEx Cup standings right now, so he needs a good week in order to make the finals.
Embracing The Villain Role
In the span of about a year, Kuchar has seemingly gone from one of the most liked golfers on Tour to one of the most hated golfers. Everyone was sharing the social media post about Rory roasting Kuchar last week. It seems like DFS interest in Kuchar is also lagging, as we currently have him projected at 6% pOWN on DK and 8% pOWN on FD. A few months ago, he was three times higher owned than that despite carrying higher price tags. Sure, the form has fallen off a bit, and he didn’t play well last week on his way to a missed cut. However, he still ranks 19th on Tour in ball striking and fourth in bogey avoidance. He hasn’t suddenly turned into a different golfer in two months. With everyone hopping off the bandwagon, this is a fantastic time to buy-in for GPP formats at a lower salary and lower ownership.
Potential Winning Upside
Rahm let a potential win slip away at The Northern Trust, but Rahm has consistently been in the mix all summer. His last four events have included two majors, a WGC event, and the first playoff event. All four have resulted in top twelve finishes. The fact that Rahm will likely wield the driver often does add some risk on this tree-lined course, but he will also gain a ton of strokes off the tee if he is able to find the fairways. Rahm is up to 13th in ball striking and second in strokes gained off the tee this year. Given his current form, I’m banking on him hitting it well again this week. The GPP upside is obvious, and he’s one of my favorite overall plays for the tournament.
Jason Day to part ways with Steve Williams
After only two short months of time together, Jason Day has decided to part ways with caddie Steve Williams. Searching for answers Day hired Williams ahead of The U.S. Open with hopes of turning his game back into the right direction. Day will have longtime friend David Lutterus on the bag this week at The BMW Championship. Currently, in the 50th position in this year’s FedEx Cup race, Day will have to play very well if he hopes to make it to East Lake next week. With, The Presidents Cup team also on his mind, Day currently sits one spot out of an automatic bid to make the team. This former number one player in the world will have plenty to play for his week as he prepares to keep his 2019 season alive.
As reported by: The Golf Channel
Kevin Na will not play this week
Kevin Na has decided to take a pass on The BMW Championship. Currently ranked outside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings Na’s 2019 season is over. He will not be replaced in the field.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter High winds and rain moved through Liberty National on Wednesday afternoon
A pretty good storm moved through the New Jersey area late on Wednesday afternoon. The grounds crew will be able to get the course ready for round one tee times, but due to damage that occurred to spectator areas the gates for The Northern Trust will not open on time. Early morning golfers will play with no spectators as the gates will not open until 10. Players like Rory and Tiger will play close to nine holes before they see any spectators. For now, it appears the course is ready to go and there is no other major news to report. ResultsDB will be up shortly after roster lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!!
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter Vaughn Taylor is once again a good source of value
Vaughn Taylor ended up being one of the more popular golfers in cash game formats for last week’s Wyndham Championship. While his top 40 finish did not exactly exceed the expectations needed to pay off his salary, Taylor’s play did very little in terms of hurting your lineups. Priced-down in this strong field, Taylor is a player you can look for as a source of salary relief for the week. Looking to play his way into next week’s BMW Championship, Taylor will need a made cut and a decent finish if he hopes to improve his current ranking ( 63rd) in this year’s FedEx Cup race. Taylor has made 8 straight cuts since the start of May and with 4 of those finishes coming inside the top 25 or better this former Ryder Cup member could end up being a sneaky point per dollar play for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Weather update for The Northern Trust
Kevin Roth’s weather report for the year’s final cut event of the season is up in the main forum. For the second straight week, it appears that while there will be some weather to contend with it will be very hard to guess if any tee time wave will have an advantage. As the day progresses on Thursday golfers could see an isolated shower or two, but nothing of great alarm. For DFS purposes we are more concerned about high winds and with projected winds of 5 to 10 mph ( gusts at 15mph) there is a major concern of wind creating an edge for one wave this week. For the most part wind conditions will be very similar on both Thursday and Friday. Tee time wave staking is always an option for GPP’s but there is no need to avoid players due to the predicted weather this week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Hideki Matsuyama looks to bounce back from poor recent form
Missed cuts and Hideki Matsuyama are things we often won’t see in the same sentence. Since he started playing The PGA Tour full-time Matsuyama has only missed more than 2 cuts in a season twice. Since the start of the 2014 season, Matsuyama has played 136 events while only missing the cut 12 % of the time. With two missed cuts in his last three starts, Matsuyama will look to bounce back from an uncharacteristic stretch of poor golf. Priced-down due to his recent form Matsuyama stands out as a great buy-low option for the week. Recency biases could be very large against Matsuyama, but despite his poor recent form he still rates out as a great fit for this course. Historically an elite ball-striker Matsuyama should find Liberty National to his liking this week.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Back stiffness limits Tiger Woods ahead of The Northern Trust
Tuesday’s practice round went as planned for current Master’s Champion Tiger Woods. With the operations too numerous to count, there is no doubt that Woods back will always be an issue moving forward. Some days are better than others for Woods, and today was one of those not so good days. Tiger considered pulling out of the Wednesday Pro-Am with back stiffness but decided to play through nine holes before just chipping and putting on the back nine. Woods is hopeful that tomorrow he will wake up and feel better, but for now, it’s worth noting that the back could be an issue. We will keep an eye on Tiger news up until lock tomorrow morning.
As reported by: ESPN Presidents Cup race heats up as FedEx Cup playoffs start
In less than a month from now, Presidents Cup Captian Tiger Woods will have a few very tough choices to make in terms of his picks to make the 2019 team. As the season winds down the last three events could have a big impact on who makes the team. With his strong performance last week Webb Simpson made a big push to make the team by moving into the sixth place spot in the current standings. Captian Woods had an impromptu meeting with hopeful team members yesterday at The Northern Trust. The group took a picture at that meeting, but one staple of past National Teams was not in the picture. Jordan Spieth who will almost certainly need a pick to make this year’s team was not in attendance. Not currently in the top 8 automatic spots, Captian Woods is rumored to take a spot as a playing captain this year. With plenty of points still up for grabs, you should keep an eye on Presidents Cup standings over the next three weeks.
As reported by: The Golf Channel Other tagged players: Jordan Spieth Jason Day trending towards a low ownership number
With less than spectacular recent results, it will be easy for many in the community to get off Jason Day. Outside of a 5th place showing at this year’s Masters Day has really not played well in the big events this season. Day now has Steve Williams on his bag and is in the process of recommitting himself to whatever it takes to become the number one golfer in the world. Still, a very talented golfer Day at both low ownership and a decreased price screams GPP upside this week. In terms of course comparisons, there have been quite a few correlations with Augusta National. Par five scoring and accurate iron play will be big this week, and Day can certainly excel in both areas. If you like the narrative angle then Day can lean on his caddie Steve Williams a bit more this week. Williams was on the bag for Tiger second-place showing in 2009 and Adam Scott’s win in 2013. Despite his poor overall play this season Day still ranks inside the top 10 in DraftKings scoring in this field over the last 50 rounds.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership New Twins... No Sleep or Baby Swag?
The final core play of the week is another golfer that’s been in poor form recently, but is far too cheap across the industry. After winning the U.S. Open, Woodland has unsurprisingly struggled to stay motivated. Perhaps brand new twins and $15 million at stake can help get him going. In an interview, he likened Liberty National to Pebble Beach (where he won the U.S. Open) and said that he practices here all the time when he’s in New York. In better form, he would be $1,500 more expensive on each of the respective DFS sites. We know he’s going to make a lot of birdies, so he just needs to beat out 45 golfers or so to make the weekend and he should easily pay off this salary.
Take the Discount on Ownership and Price
I know that his form has been a little suspect in his last three events. He missed the cut at the Open Championship, he faltered after a solid first round at the WGC, and he missed the cut on the number at the Wyndham Championship. However, he’s still one of the best ball strikers in the world and we get a steep discount in both price and ownership this week. Who would have thought Hideki would be $1,000 cheaper than Webb Simpson at half the ownership? Even with the recent struggles, he’s still ranked 19th in the field in strokes gained off the tee and fifth in strokes gained approach. He’s always been good in strong fields and he typically plays well in the playoffs.
I Always Love a Good Sale and this Golfer is Discounted
Cantlay is number one in my model this week and yes, I double checked all of my weights and formulas. The dude has been an absolute machine over the last few months. In his last eight events, he has a win, two thirds, four top 20s, and a T41. Like Rose, he gains strokes in all four areas of his game — off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting. If you see his statistics above, he’s top 10 in this field in basically every category. I’m always a fan of golfers that offer safety (cut equity) and upside (win equity) and we aren’t paying a premium for that with Cantlay. He’s clearly in better form than most of the golfers priced above him.