DFS Alerts
This Rose Doesn't Have a Thorn
Rose has always been a golfer that we could rely on to gain strokes in all facets of his game. He’s long and straight off the tee, he’s solid with his irons, he rarely loses strokes around the greens, and he’s an above-average putter. He hasn’t been a name on the collective DFS radar even though he’s posted four straight top 20 finishes. Most of his wins on tour have come on bentgrass and he’s one of a handful of golfers that played Liberty National in both in 2013 (T2) and in 2009 (T41). I really can’t find a knock on Rose this week and I love his price across the industry.
Buy Low While You Can
This is the biggest wild card of the week. To put it simply, Gary Woodland is far too cheap at $7,800 on DK and $9,700 on FD. There’s no reason for him to be priced below the average salary we have to spend per golfer. Sure, the recent form has lagged a bit, but it was no surprise to see him struggle after posting top tens in each of the last two majors, including a win at the U.S. Open. There’s a natural let-down factor there, plus his wife was impending labor with twins. Certainly, Woodland had a lot on his mind over the past few months. Now that the twins have been successfully born and he has had a week off from golf, Woodland should be ready to roll in the playoffs. Now, we can question how much sleep he has been able to get with newborn twins, but I am not going to pretend like I know what’s going on there. Woodland is a top tier ball striker who ranks eighth in that department this year, and he should be able to thrive on this layout. He loves the course and finished second here in 2013. At this far too cheap salary, I’m buying.
A Star in the Making
Out of all the new college graduates coming onto the PGA Tour, none has impressed more than Morikawa. That’s saying something, too, as both Matthew Wolff and Viktor Hovland have enjoyed immediate success in their own right. Morikawa’s iron play is downright ridiculous. He doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify statistically yet, but the results speak for themselves. He has made the cut in all seven PGA Tour events in which he has appeared, with 36th being his WORST finish in the bunch. He has posted three top five finishes and has already won an event. Even though it was the weak field Barracuda Championship, he showed impressive closing ability by finishing with three straight birdies. If not for a ridiculous finish by Wolff, Morikawa could have won the 3M tournament as well. Many DFS gamers might ignore him at this price in a strong field, and while this is a step up in class, don’t forget that he also played well at the U.S. Open when he was still an amateur. He is a great GPP play in this spot.
A Fine Spot for a Rebound
Matsuyama has missed cuts in two of his last three starts, which is shocking for a player who went nearly a full year without missing a single cut. However, he missed the cut on the number a week ago, so it’s not like his form is that far off. Look for him to get back on track on a tougher track, where he can lean on his elite ball striking (ranks 9th on Tour). While he’s never been the best putter, his around the green touch is solid (ranks 33rd on Tour). Many people will be scared to go back to the well with his sketchy form, but I like the thought of hopping on Matsuyama at certainly lower ownership in this spot. Class golfers figure it out in the long run, especially on tougher tracks. Expect Matsuyama to get back in the mix this week.
Solid Win Equity at a Reasonable Price
Cantlay doesn’t get the national media attention that some other elite golfers get, but his game plays anywhere. His last missed cut in a stroke play event was at THE PLAYERS back in March, so it has been nearly five months since Cantlay has missed a weekend. He has six top 15 finishes in eight starts since then, and his somewhat limited schedule does not seem to affect his performance when he does tee it up. He is plenty long off the tee, he scores well on par fours, and he ranks inside the top 12 on Tour in strokes gained on approach and around the green. His price tag is also a bit cheaper than the other elite options, and I think Cantlay brings almost as much win equity as any golfer in the field. That makes him one of my favorite point per dollar plays on the entire board.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello is no longer in the field
Rafael Cabrera Bello is no longer in the Northern Trust field. With his wife days away from giving birth to their child RCB will skip this week’s event. He will not be replaced in the field.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter
Northern Trust projections are live and Jim Furyk stands out as a great point per dollar play
Jim Furyk went through almost a two year stretch of playing through injury. Now healthy this former FedEx Cup champion is in a great position to make his first Tour Championship since the 2015 season. With only limited data available on Liberty National Golf Club there will not a ton to gain in the way of course history. That being said, Furyk is one of the few players in this field who should know this course very well. In addition to being an assistant captain at The 2017 Presidents Cup, Furyk has two top 15 or better finishes at Liberty National Golf Club. Furyk enters his week having made six straight cuts including 4 top 30 or better finishes. The combination of his form and the dip in price has Furyk in the number one spot in our projections model in terms of Pt/$/K. Currently ranked inside the top 40 in FedEx Cup points, Furyk will need to play well if he has any hopes of making it to East Lake. In terms of a course fit, Furyk will benefit from Liberty National being a second shot course. While some golfers will still try to overpower the course, short hitters have done fairly well at Liberty National in the past.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool MDF Rule in play for The Wyndham Championship
Eighty-three golfers will tee it up for Saturday play at the Wyndham Championship, but due to the MDF rule only around 70 players will compete in Sunday’s final round. The MDF rule comes into play when more than 78 players make the cut. In order to speed up play for network television, the PGA Tour will make another cut on Sunday closer to the top 70 and ties. When making roster choices for the weekend slate, keep in mind that only seventy or so players will participate in Sunday’s final round. The cut line fell at -4 and there are currently 41 players between 4 under par and 6 under par. The weekend DFS golf scoring system does not reward points for players finishing position. Typically we are looking to roster players who can make a ton of birdies on the weekend. When building rosters for the final full-field event of the season please keep the MDF cut in your roster-building process.
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
There is no major news to report ahead of the final regular event of the season. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Weather update for The Wyndham Championship
Kevin Roth’s weather report for The Wyndham Championship is up in the main forum. While it looks like rain could be in play on both Thursday and Friday, there does not appear to be an edge to stacking a tee time wave based upon weather this week. In terms of DFS golf, we are really looking more at the wind than the rain and there is almost no wind to speak of as it relates to causing concern in the playability of a golf course. The unpredictable timing of the showers further complicates trying to predict which tee time group really has an edge this week. As always its never a bad idea to stack a few lineups if you are MME a GPP, but it appears the tee time draws will be pretty equal this week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Shawn Stefani is a value play trending in the right direction
Currently, in the 134th position in this years FedEx Cup race, Shawn Stefani will need another good week if he has hopes of playing in the playoffs. Having played the last 3 seasons around on the cut line for keeping his card Stefani is no stranger to this type of situation. Coming into this week Stefani has made five straight cuts including 4 top 40 or better showings. Stefani can also lean on a decent bit of course history as he has made three of last four cuts at The Wyndham Championship. This week will most likely boil down to how players perform from the fairway, and Stefani has gained strokes on approach consistently in the last two months.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Nick Taylor stands out as a good source of value
Nick Taylor enters this week riding a six made cut streak. Currently ranked in the 114th position in this year’s FedEx Cup standings, Taylor should be in a good spot to retain his PGA Tour card for the second straight year. With only one top 10 in 26 starts this year, Taylor is not the type of player who we can count on to win us a GPP. He does, however, have the consistency we are looking for in a value relief play. Taylor has made his way into the 25 to 45 finish position range sixteen times this season. At his value-based priced we will gladly take another mid-range finish and hope our top-end golfers perform well enough to finish high in a GPP. Taylor arrived this week without clubs as they had been lost in luggage, but as of late last night, he had all of his luggage and appears ready to play this week. Making his 5th start at The Wyndham Championship, Taylor will look to improve the T8 finish from last years tournament.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Rory Sabbatini looks to make a deep run into the playoffs
Looking to make his first Tour Championship in almost 10 years Rory Sabbatini continues to play consistently great golf. Currently ranked in the 44th position in this years race, Sabbatini has been a surprisingly steady pick for all formats over the majority of the season. In 23 starts this season Sabbatini has made 19 cuts finishing inside the top 25 nine times. Currently projected to have an ownership level lower than 10% Sabbatini makes for an interesting pivot off other golfers in the same price range. Sabbatini has two top ten or better finishes in his four previous starts at The Wyndham Championship.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Aaron Baddeley is no longer in the field
Aaron Baddeley has removed himself from the field. He will be replaced by Domonic Bozell. Due to the timing of this move, there is a good chance we will not see Bozelli added to the pricing pools.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter Other tagged players: Dominic Bozzelli Great Statistical Fit for Sedgefield
It is a bit odd that we have only seen Piercy once over the last six weeks, but he did parlay that start into a top 15 finish at the 3M Open. He has also played well at Sedgefield in the past, rolling four straight made cuts with finishes of 8th, 12th, 63rd, and 45th on his Wyndham resume. He also grades out surprisingly well statistically for this course, and he rises to the level of being one of my favorite point per dollar GPP options. From his elite par four scoring (ranks 5th), to solid accuracy (30th), and ball striking ability, there isn’t a major weakness other than his occasionally wobbly short game. Piercy is capable of scoring with the best of them if this turns into a shootout, as well. Give him a look as a sneaky upside target.