DFS Alerts
Ball Striker with Good History at East Lake
Casey has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in nine straight events. That kind of ball striking is so impressive, especially when you consider the type of fields that he plays in. In this field, he’s in the top five off the tee and on approach and he has plenty of experience at East Lake. He has played here each of the last four years, posting three top five finishes and a T11. If he repeats that this week, he will easily pay off his salary. On long, challenging golf courses, I will always side with the good ball strikers and hope that they can have a good week on the greens.
Elite Golfer Priced at a Huge Discount
Rose wasn’t great at the BMW Championship, but I’m not overly concerned. He lost five strokes putting for the tournament and he lost four strokes on approach in a single hole. If you take out the two water balls and say that he gained one stroke on the greens (which is more typical of Rose), he ends up at 14-under par which would have put him in the top 10. He’s been a top 10 machine all season and he’s actually a better putter on bermuda than on any other surface. The real reason to like him this week is his price point — he’s $6,900 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel. I’ll take a class golfer at this price no matter how many strokes he’s behind to start the tournament.
Five Top 10 Finishes in his last Seven Starts
Scott is starting the tournament at three-under par, which means he’s only two shots out of a top five finish. Many will treat this event like a Sunday showdown contest, but keep in mind that the finishing points are for the entire tournament, not just the first round. The mid-range is loaded with stud golfers that are underpriced solely due to the fact that they are starting six or seven shots back. Scott missed the cut at the Open and backed it up with a mediocre T40 finish, but has otherwise been in tremendous form. He has five top 10s in his last eight events and he has plenty of experience at East Lake. He’s posted back-to-back top 10 finishes here. He’s solid in all aspects of his game outside of the putter, but that’s an area that he’s improved this season.
Priced at a Premium for a Reason
Thomas will start the tournament with a two-shot lead and he’s coming off of a three-shot victory at the BMW Championship. Check out his approach numbers over his last five events — +7.7, +6.1, +5.2, +4.5, and +6.1. He finally got the putter going last week and like we’ve said over the last two months, as soon as that happens, he’s going to win. The downside with Thomas this week is that he’s by far the most expensive golfer in the field. There are enough cheap golfers to fit him rather easily, but you miss out on the mid-range options that feel underpriced. Thomas is very safe, as it would take a truly bad week for him to fall out of the top five and even a decent week could see him winning the $15 million paycheck. If he can get off to a hot start, he’ll be tough to catch.
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
There is no major news to report ahead of the final regular event of the season. The news this week surrounds the health of Tiger Woods. After pulling out of last week’s event, Woods went on record as saying he felt way better this week. It’s worth noting that Woods has two wins in his career at Medinah. With no tee time draws or cut to worry about this week weather should not be a factor in terms of picking golfers. There is a chance of rain on the weekend, but overall the weather for golf looks pretty decent. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello returns to action after birth of his child
Rafael Cabrera Bello missed last week’s Northern Trust to be with his wife as she gave birth to their daughter. With mom and baby, healthy RCB returns to action this week as he barley snuck into the top 70. Needing a top 3 or better finish to make it to East Lake RCB will have his work cut out for him at Medinah. From a DFS standpoint, RCB at his price point would prove to be very effective with a top 20 type of finish. Currently projected to be right in the middle of our projections in terms of Pt/$/K, RCB could be a sneaky pick in terms of exceeding that projection. Making a ton of bridies has not been the issue for RCB of late, it’s been the bogies and big numbers keeping this talented golfer from playing the weekend. With no cut this week and really no big pressure to speak of we can look at RCB being the type of player to crush his value in light of a strong finish position. In his last start ( also a no-cut event) RCB crushed his value for the week and ended up being one of the top points per dollar golfers despite only finishing in a tie for twelfth.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Paul Casey set to return after a week off
In a vacumn, Paul Casey could be viewed as a frustrating roster option this year. Untimely missed cuts at The Players Championship and The Masters, combined with an injury withdrawal at Colonial could have burned quite a few in the DFS community this year. Looking instead at Casey’s whole body of work for the season will provide a better sense of Casey’s game heading into the final two events of the season. Casey ranks inside the top 10 in most strokes gained ball striking metrics this season and comes into this week with a chance to improve on what has been a very good season. The Copperhead course at Innisbrook is gaining traction as a good corollary course for this week, and as we have seen by his back to back wins at The Valspar, Casey really likes that type of course. With 13 top 25’s in 20 starts this season Casey stands out as a great mid-range option for the week.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Tiger Woods appears ready to play this week
After his play and subsequent withdrawal from last week’s Northern Trust, there was a strong doubt that Tiger Woods would play again this year. Tiger played nine holes this morning in the Pro-Am and appears on track to play in The BMW Championship. Tiger will have a press conference after the round, so we should know more about the state of his game later today. The big if’s surrounding Tiger’s game has more to do with health than skill, so if he can play this week there is a chance that the defending Tour Champion from last year can make a return to East Lake. Currently ranked in the 38th position in this year’s race, Tiger will need a good week to advance in the playoffs. Tiger has the track record at this course and knowing that he has to hit less than driver seems to be a perfect fit for his game at the moment. With both a discount in price and low projected ownership, Tiger if healthy could be a great GPP option for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Surprisingly Solid Around the Green
Benny An went nearly a year without missing a cut. He then missed a few in the early part of summer, but has since bounced back in a big way. He nearly won at the Wyndham Championship and he backed it up with a T38 at the Northern Trust. His ball striking has been solid in each of his last seven events and while many compare him to the likes of Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak, and Emiliano Grillo, there is one key difference — he’s ranked first in this field in strokes gained around the green. I love his upside and his price in a no-cut event like this one.
Discounted Ball Striker in Bad Form
Something seems a little off with Matsuyama right now. After an incredible run in the summer, he missed the cut at the Open Championship, he struggled on the weekend at the WGC St. Jude, he missed the cut at the Wyndham, and he had a middling performance at the Northern Trust. His ball striking hasn’t quite been as sharp recently. While that’s a concern heading into this week, he’s just too cheap to ignore. This is a ball striker’s course and there are few that do it better than Matsuyama. He is currently 33rd in the standings, so he’s going to need a solid week to advance to the Tour Championship.
Best Point Per Dollar Play of the Slate
Casey is in the same boat as Cantlay. Everything is lining up for a great week and he’s underpriced compared to his peers. Much like Cantlay, he’s going to be heavily owned in all formats. As I always say, we shouldn’t worry about the ownership of a single golfer, we should worry about the aggregate exposure of each lineup. Casey has one of the best tee to green games on tour and his best putting surface is bentgrass. Unlike most of the field, he took last week off to rest and get ready for the final two events. I see that as a positive, as many will be a little burned out at this stage of the season.
Number Two in my Model, Number One in my Heart
There are plenty of studs to choose from this week, but Cantlay feels a bit cheaper than the rest. He rates out as the second best play in my model this week, which says a lot given how stacked this field is. He led the field in birdies last week at the Northern Trust and despite losing strokes on approach for the first time in a long time, he posted another top 15 finish. He gains strokes in all facets of his game and he really only plays in the most prestigious events at this point. In fact, his field of strength for the season is the third best of any golfer to tee it up this week. He’s going to be popular, but we can look to differentiate our lineups elsewhere.
Bryson DeChambeau looks to get ahead of slow play issue
Slow play has been an issue on The PGA Tour for many years. Thanks to the advent of social media it’s become a lot easier for PGA Tour players to vent how they feel about the issue of slow play. This past weekend Bryson DeChambeau took some heat both on and off the course for his very deliberate style of play. In a post-round press conference, DeChambeau took offense to the issue by standing behind the way he plays the game. While many players were critical of DeChambeau he did not quite get the harsh treatment that J.B. Holmes received at The Open Championship. Already a five-time winner on tour, DeChambeau is possibly the biggest name associated with the slow play issue. After meetings with players such as Brooks Koepka, DeChambeau has decided to try and improve the pace of his play. Looking to take the high road, DeChambeau took to Instagram to vow an improvement to the issue at hand. Hopefully, DeChambeau can put this behind him as he prepares to try and make this year’s Presidents Cup team.
As reported by: ESPN Vaughn Taylor looks to finish the season strong
If you are new to DFS golf, or to just golf in general than you might not associate the game of Vaughn Taylor to that of a player worthy of making a Ryder Cup Team. With a win during the 2005 season and 17 top 25 seasons in the 2005 and 2006 seasons combined Taylor played in the 2006 Ryder Cup team as a captain’s pick. Since that time Taylor has done little to earn that type of recognition in his game. Currently, in the 62nd position in this year’s FedEx Cup race, Taylor will need a special week if he hopes to make a trip to East Lake for the first time. Entering this week with having made 8 straight cuts including 4 top 20 or better showings, Taylor is a player that has consistently outperformed his price. With yet another low price tag for this week’s BMW Championship, Taylor sits near the top in terms of Pt/$/K in our projection model for the week. Looking to have his best season in quite some time, Taylor is in a good spot to once again be a top value option for the week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Banking on Positive Trends
If you sort last week’s results by strokes gained on approach, Harold Varner was your surprising leader at a blitzing +9.5 strokes for the week. That is some elite iron play, which should have him brimming with confidence heading to Medinah. He’s also playing with house money after rising from 102nd to 29th in the FedEx Cup standings, so he is suddenly on the verge of being able to make the final 30. His game is notoriously inconsistent, as he often falls down leaderboards thanks to one bad round. However, in the event that he puts four rounds together (like a week ago), there’s sneaky potential. I like the trends here, and I’m more than happy to roll with Varner as a solid value, especially in a no cut format.
