DFS Alerts
Patrick Reed looks to build on a strong week
It was not that long ago that many in the golf world considered Patrick Reed a lock for any future Presidents or Ryder Cup. Prior to last year’s Ryder Cup Reed had a reputation of being a player that could get considered to join a team via a captain’s pick. Poor play this season combined with a poor showing at the last Ryder Cup has Reed in that exact situation as we head down the final stretch of The Presidents Cup race. Currently ranked in the 20th position in the race to make the team, there is a strong sentiment that Reed will have to make the team on his own merit and can’t rely on being one of the captain’s picks. Looking to build on last week’s strong showing, Reed is not a golfer who pops in any models or expert rankings for The 3M Open. If there is one thing we know about Reed is that he seems to relish the underdog role. Once again the underdog, Reed makes for a sneaky play this week despite his lack of respect in the industry. Motivated and playing good golf Reed needs a handful of strong showings if he wants any chance to play in Australia as a member of this year’s Presidents Cup Team
As reported by: PGA Expert Rankings
Ryan Moore looks to bounce back from a missed cut
Ryan Moore ended up being one of the more popular 9k GPP plays at last week’s Rocket Mortgage. Known for his ability to hit accurate irons and the propensity to take it low had Moore on the radar of many in the DFS community. Poor play at high ownership is always a good place to look for in terms of a bounce back play and, Moore struggled to find his form over the first two days in Detroit last week resulting in a disappointing missed cut. Just like last week this new venue figures to yield low scores and Moore is the type of player that has a proven track record of going low and making a ton of birdies. Currently projected to have an ownership level of less than 8%, Moore has a proven track record needed to make him a great GPP pivot for The 3M Open.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Jason Day makes small changes to his game with hopes of improved form
Over the last month, Jason Day has taken some much-needed steps in order to get his game back on track. Since the departure of his swing coach as a caddie, Day has been often disappointing in comparison to his talent. Day decided to keep Collin Swatton as a coach but thought it was time to get a new person on the bag. After a few different caddies, Day is now with high profile caddie Stevie Williams and has begun to show signs that his game is progressing the right direction. At the suggestion of Williams, Day and his coach have taken steps to lower his ball flight in order to improve accuracy. Look for day to hit more three-quarter type of iron shots in order to improve his ball flight and control. Over a small sample size Day is showing some improvement in his strokes gained data with is iron play. Golfers like Day can always hit the ball high when he the need fits, but the ability to control trajectory should lead to an improved chance to hit irons closer more often. Motivated to get back in the form that saw as the worlds top golfer, Day is in a good spot to contend for his first win since May of last year.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays One of the most consistent Values since January
Blixt has quietly amassed a spectacular run this year, playing in 13 events since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, making 10 cuts and 4 Top 25 finishes. Looking through this stats, there is not a lot to pick apart. He has lost strokes T2G only once in his last 5 starts, and looking at last weeks wProx numbers, he was inside 24 feet 52% of the time, and inside 6 feet 10% of the time. Blixt seems like a solid cash/single entry option this week, as well as an option in deeper field GPPs.
Jaeger provides value with T2G stats
I had a close eye on Jaeger last week as I ended up not needing to play him in many lineups, but knew I would have interest in him this week at TPC Twin Cities. He technically disappointed by missing the cut, but was very encouraged to see his numbers stay consistent T2G. He lost 2.5 and 1.9 strokes putting on Day 1 and 2, respectively. His OTT numbers are also extremely encouraging when going to a longer course like this, and with his approach numbers maintaining this level of consistency, hitting over 60% of his approaches inside 24 feet, I do not have any issues hopping on board this week.
No reason to jump off early
The next guy to make the list is a lesser-known player in terms of PGA Tour DFS: Doc Redman. His resume is actually quite impressive, winning the 2017 US Amateur and then going on a pretty strong run here in 2019. His results are mixed between PGA Tour and Web.com events, but has certainly been “Feast or Famine” in regards to finishes, but the underlying stats have been very consistent all season on both Tours. He currently has 70% GIR and DA, and Strokes Gained stats at a similar elite level. He has played 2 PGA Tour events this year, making the cut in both and averaging 6.4 SG:T2G. Redman is not a flash-in-the-pan, feel comfortable playing him again this week on a similar scoring course to Detroit Golf Club.
No reason to jump off early
The next guy to make the list is a lesser-known player in terms of PGA Tour DFS: Doc Redman. His resume is actually quite impressive, winning the 2017 US Amateur and then going on a pretty strong run here in 2019. His results are mixed between PGA Tour and Web.com events, but has certainly been “Feast or Famine” in regards to finishes, but the underlying stats have been very consistent all season on both Tours. He currently has 70% GIR and DA, and Strokes Gained stats at a similar elite level. He has played 2 PGA Tour events this year, making the cut in both and averaging 6.4 SG:T2G. Redman is not a flash-in-the-pan, feel comfortable playing him again this week on a similar scoring course to Detroit Golf Club.
Underpriced 2019 Tour Winner
Homa continues to be a staple on this list every single week, and at a slight price decrease, he provides a nice amount of savings and upside. As I mentioned last week, Homa ranked third in both wProx and SG:APP per Round at the Travelers Championship, and last week gained strokes on 50% of his approaches. He’s not the most accurate driver on Tour, but these fairways do seem to provide some extra landing room for the longer hitters as compared to the past 2 events, so his Driving Accuracy numbers are not concerning for me here.
Confident Player on an appealing Course
Another guy in the mid-tier value but he has to be in consideration again this week is Tringale who has been playing incredibly consistent and on this course that should reward distance even more than last week, he seems like a “good” play regardless of price. Averaging about 74% GIR while gaining strokes on 57% of his approaches last week, there are no signs of him slowing down.
Iron Game is still Elite
Let’s get a couple of these mid-priced values out of the way early before we get to the super cheap ones. Dufner is another similar case to Hoffman where his iron game has been on fire the past few months and even after a missed cut last week, his price is more than fair for his ball-striking stats he showcased. For reference, Dufner gained 0.9 SG:APP per round which matched most of the players at the top of the leaderboard last week.
Double Bounce-back Spot
Charley Hoffman was first on my list last week and burned us for the second straight week. Looking further into his numbers, he really struggled with the putter but his ball-striking stats were mostly intact. You may be slightly biased to go back to him again for a third week but I certainly won’t be jumping ship. Hoffman has the distance to excel here and the iron game has been exceptional, gaining strokes on approach in 9 straight events. Unfortunately, he has lost SG:Putting in 4 straight weeks, but that can come around for him this week.
Josh Teater in need of another good week
It’s the time of the season where the race towards the FedEx Cup starts to really take shape. Currently ranked outside the top 175 in this year’s race Josh Teater is in need of another good week if he has any hope of keeping his tour card for next season. Over the last five seasons Teater has spent the majority of his time competing on The Korn Ferry Tour. Teater played well enough last year on The Korn Ferry Tour to earn his card for this season, but poor play for two-thirds of this season has Teater facing a strong prospect of returning back to the familiar grounds of that tour. Entering this week on the heels of four straight made cuts Teater appears to have found his game and could still challenge to keep his tour card. Still priced down due to his poor start this season, Teater is a value play we can attack in stars and scrubs builds for the week. Teater has gained 10 shots tee to green over his last four starts and can more than pay off his salary for the week with a top 35 or better finish.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Best Ball Striking Performance in Four Years
Day is coming off of his best ball striking performance since he took down the PGA Championship in 2015. At the Travelers, he gained 3.9 strokes off the tee and 6.3 strokes with his approaches. Day is known for his short game, so when he flashes form with his ball striking, we should immediately take note. His game has been trending in the right direction since hiring Stevie Williams (Tiger’s old caddy) and he sounds motivated to get back to the world’s best golfer. We know the short game is immaculate, so Day could easily be back in the winner’s circle if his ball striking continues.
This Golfer Hasn't Missed a Cut in a Year
Matsuyama rates out as the best golfer in my model this week and it’s easy to see why. He’s been a model of consistency this season. He hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s Open Championship and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 35 since January. He has yet to pick up a win this season, but he has been knocking at the door time and time again. I know he feels a bit overpriced, but we have a weak field this week and sometimes it makes sense to pay up for safety. His made cut equity is higher than anyone else’s in the field. In terms of statistics, he’s ranked eighth or better in off the tee, approach, birdie or better percentage, opportunities gained, and my hole by hole breakdown stat that I created.
On Paper, this Course was Built for Mr. Burns... Excellent
Look, this is a new course on the PGA Tour, so we can only take guesses on what type of golfer will fare well this week. However, I see 40 yard wide fairways, little rough, par fives that are only reachable by the longer hitters, and potentially two drive-able par fours. I’m looking for length off the tee, birdie makers, and putters. Burns fits the mold perfectly. He’s ranked in the top 10 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, driving distance, and birdie or better percentage. He has gained strokes putting in 10 of his last 11 events on tour and he hasn’t missed a cut since February. We get all of this at sub-10% ownership (at least as of Tuesday afternoon). Dollar for dollar, Burns is my favorite play of the week.