DFS Alerts
Still Priced As A Great Value Option
Lebioda’s price continues to be a source of value every single week. His numbers the past few months have been incredibly steady, making 5 of 7 cuts since April. His ball-striking numbers have really been intriguing during this time, averaging 72% GIR and 65% of Fairways with a 300.5 yard average Off-the-Tee. He really hasn’t shown the upside we want at 7k but the big finishes are coming.
Tour winner coming in with some nice iron numbers.
Adam Long will continue to be on my shortlist of sleepers every week until his price gets too high or his approach numbers begin to turn around. His driver can certainly be his crux, but the TPC Deere Run is slightly less-than-driver and offers some of the most forgiving fairways on Tour averaging 71% Fairways Hit last year. With his driver under control he has been really hitting his irons well, ranking inside the Top 10 in 2 of his last 3 starts with wProx inside 24’. Long is certainly a risky play, but I really do like his prospects on this type of course coupled with this weak field.
Course History - Exhibit A
ZJ is not having the best of seasons, but his course history at the John Deere Classic is rivaled by only Steve Stricker (who is not competing this year). Johnson is an Iowa native who treats this event like another major, and he has made the cut all eleven times he has played at the JDC. That perfect mark includes six top THREE finishes. Throw in a field that seems even weaker than normal, and you have a nice recipe for a bounce-back performance. The stats are undoubtedly ugly, but that is reflected in the fact that he is no longer priced in the $11,000 range on DK and the $12,000 range on FD. You’re getting a bit of a discount on a player with elite course history, and I’ll take my chances that he gets it locked in this weekend. Just look at his history at this event over the his 11 years – 16-5-34-3-2-2-1-3-21-2-69. Incredible stuff.
Save with Svensson
Svensson came through for us last week in a big way. Exactly as his form had been shaping up, he continued his strong ball-striking numbers yet lost over 5 strokes putting. Still, this was good enough for a made cut and added upside with a 15th place finish. I am going right back to the well this week with another great price tag on him. At this point it doesn’t seem his putting will really turn around to match the Tour Average, however with the numbers he is putting up Tee-to-Green, he has plenty of upside to pay off his price tag if not contend for another Top 15.
Sneaky Potential
After an impressive second place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Redman was a popular value play last week at the 3M Open. He proceeded to miss the cut after a dreadful start on Thursday, and that is going to have DFS players shying away this week. In GPP formats, that makes this a great spot to zig when everyone zags. All the other elite young golfers have been priced up dramatically this week, but Redman is still sitting with a value price tag despite that runner up finish two weeks ago. This is recency bias at its finest. He might not have the pedigree of Wolff, Hovland, or Morikawa, but Redman is no slouch. The missed cut leading to low ownership has me salivating about this spot. Remember, Wolff won last week at 3-4% ownership as a result of his missed cut the week prior. That’s interesting food for thought.
Solid Value
Merritt is quietly playing some of the best golf of his career these days. He has four top 25 finishes in his last eight starts on the PGA Tour, including a breakout top ten at the 3M Open a week ago. The scoring has been there, as he made 21 birdies and an eagle in those four rounds, and I am rooting for him to keep it rolling. The statistical metrics are there, too, as he ranks 29th in total driving, 19th in birdie or better percentage, and 53rd in strokes gained tee to green this year. Those all rank near the top of the field, and he’s priced like a value. I’m in.
Great Form, Great Fit
One of my favorite plays this week, Tringale has had a mixed bag of finishes here at TPC Deere Run, however his form leading into this week is perhaps the best of his career. He has made the cut in 6 of his last 7 events, finishing inside the Top 25 in four of those. Tringale is a good driver of the ball, but he actually has been hitting his irons really well, averaging about 74% GIR, which has led him to my rosters every week since the Byron Nelson Championship. His upside here looks favorable with a 9th place finish back in 2011, but has only played the event twice since then.
Another Elite Young Golfer
Wolff and Morikawa had their coming out party last week, battling down to the wire before Wolff pulled out a win with his incredible eagle on the final hole of the tournament. That will have those two garnering more DFS attention this week, especially since Hovland is at the same or a higher price tag on almost every site (Hovland is $100 cheaper than Morikawa on FanDuel, but that difference is negligible). Recency bias will make some lean toward Wolff and Morikawa, and this is a spot where I really like Hovland. You know he is hungry for a debut win after what Wolff did in Minnesota, and Hovland has been playing well in his own right, with six straight cuts made on the PGA Tour. That includes solid performances at The Masters (32nd) and the U.S. Open (12th), with back-to-back top 15’s on the resume since that U.S. Open finish. Hovland was over 80% in driving accuracy and greens in regulation a week ago, to go along with plenty of distance off the tee. He doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify for full season statistics just yet, but rest assured that he is the real deal.
Great Bounce Back Spot after a Missed Cut
The final core play for me this week is Mr. Straka, who has been very popular in the DFS community over the last few weeks. Anytime a golfer strikes the ball well for a few tournaments in a row, DFS players will quickly pick up on him because like myself, many are constantly studying ball striking trends. While I expect him to garner ownership this week, hopefully a missed cut will keep it at a reasonable level. He’s not a good putter, but like Niemann, he actually gains strokes putting on the field when he’s on bentgrass. He has gained strokes off the tee in seven of his last eight events and he has gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight events. Scrambling here shouldn’t be an issue for anyone, so it really comes down to his putter.
This Golfer Made me Think the PGA Model was Broken
When I first ran my model this week, I thought I made an error. Taylor graded out as the number seven golfer in the field. I made some small adjustments to my weights and expected a different result. He moved up to number six in the model. It’s hard not to like that value when he’s the 30th most expensive golfer on DraftKings and the 37th most expensive golfer on FanDuel. He has done two things very well recently — strike his irons and putt. Over his last six events, he has gained 14 strokes on approach and 19 strokes putting. He’s a tremendous fit for the course and his recent form suggests he’ll play very well this week. He has plenty of experience at TPC Deere Run and has two top 35 finishes here in the last two years.
Elite Putter that has Gained 20 Strokes on Approach in his Last Six Events
Malnati has been a regular feature of my article over the last few weeks. Throughout his career, he has been known as a great putter. In fact, he has finished in the top 20 in strokes gained putting in each of the last four seasons, which is incredibly tough to do. That type of consistency with the flatstick is encouraging, especially when that golfer starts to strike the ball well. While you don’t want to bleed strokes off the tee or around the green here, most strokes at this course are gained with irons and putting. Malnati has now gained strokes on approach in six straight events (+20 strokes cumulative) and he’s playing the most consistent golf of his career, making 12 of his last 13 cuts. He offers a high floor, a high ceiling, and cut equity — all at a reasonable price point.
Dreamin About Niemann and his First PGA Tour Victory
This is one of those events where you expect a young golfer to get a breakthrough win or a veteran golfer to pick up a win that helps revive his career. We haven’t seen many elites win here and it’s worth noting that we don’t have any in the field this week anyway. Niemann is my favorite of the young phenoms this week. You certainly can’t go wrong with Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, or Matthew Wolff, but Niemann’s game has been trending in the right direction over the last few months. He has gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the greens in five straight events. He’s not known as a good putter, but he prefers bentgrass and actually gains strokes on the field if you look at that specific putting split. His last three events on tour are T23, T5, and T5. Of the four young guys that I’ve mentioned, Niemann is the only one that has seen the course before. He played here last season and posted a respectable T23 finish. Niemann is a strong DraftKings play and he actually made the betting card this week at 25/1.
Twenty minutes until roster lock and no major news to report
Twenty minutes until roster lock and there is no major news to report. For the most part weather over the first two days looks to be pretty equal. There is a chance of rain throughout the first two days of play, but by no means is there a clear edge to one tee time wave over another. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Weather update for The 3M Open
Kevin Roth’s weather report is up in the main forum for the inaugural 3M Open. Overall the forecast appears to be pretty equal for both days so there is not really an edge to be gained in terms of stacking a tee time wave. TPC Twin Cities has seen a ton of pre-tournament rain and could be in for an occasional storm over the first two days. With similar winds, both days players should face the same conditions, and if the already wet course gets any more rain then we could really see the landing areas widen due to soft conditions.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Field update for The 3M Open
Nate Lashley was the last man into the field at The Rocket Mortgage and ended up having a life-changing week. While we can’t expect that kind of result to happen with any kind of frequency, late additions to the field have played well at times this season. As the season progresses we have seen the sites become more proactive with adding new players to the pool after initial salaries have been released. All of the players tagged in this alert have been added to LineupHQ and are available to use in roster builds. Chad Cambell, Doc Redman, and Matt Every are familiar names that could be looked to as GPP dart throws. Redman is a PGA Tour rookie that earned temporary member status via his second place finish at last week’s Rocket Mortgage.
As reported by: LineupHQ Other tagged players: Chad Campbell, Nyasha Mauchaza, Mark Baldwin, Arjun Atwal, Brian Dwyer, Matt Every