10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 22nd
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 22nd.
Friday, June 22nd
1. Against right-handed hitters this year, Sean Newcomb has a .256 wOBA, a 24.5 percent strikeout rate, and just 26.3 percent hard hits allowed; he’s one of only two pitchers in MLB (min. 30 IP) who has posted that combination this year, and the other guy on the list is pretty good: it’s Chris Sale. Newcomb’s elite curveball – in which he’s allowed just two extra-base hits in 442 pitches thrown for a .062 ISO against righties – has allowed him to neutralize platoon splits. On Friday, he’ll square off against an Orioles lineup that should be comprised of almost entirely against right-handed hitters, but given that Newcomb has held his own without the platoon advantage, and given that the Orioles rank 26th in wOBA (.294), 24th in ISO (.130), and 26th in wRC+ (83) means this is still a near-perfect matchup for Newcomb. The control issues are still there for Newcomb – his 11.0 percent walk rate this year is tied for fourth-highest among 92 qualified starters. If he can limit the free passes, though, Newcomb is in line to be one of the top scorers of the slate at pitcher.
2. Jose Quintana has four straight games of 50 percent ground balls; the last time he strung together four such starts was in May-June 2015. This is noteworthy because, while the results have been better for him over the past four games (2.38 ERA), he’s still getting hit very hard (38.6 percent hard hits over this stretch) and being aided by the Cubs’ stellar defense and a .218 BABIP. Not known a a groundball pitcher, Quintana will need to keep this trend going and induce as many grounders as possible on Friday, as he visits It’s also noteworthy because on Friday, he’ll need as many grounders as he can get as he visits Great American Ball Park, one of the best home run parks in baseball. While the matchup is not perfect (the Reds rank ninth in MLB in team wOBA against lefties), Quintana has the luxury of an extreme pitcher’s umpire in Jeramie Rehak. He’s also priced very affordably given his long track record of consistency. He’s one of the top cash games options on the board on a weak slate for pitching.
3. Let’s play a game of blind resume. Take a look at some of this year’s DFS-relevant numbers of two starting pitchers:
From a numbers standpoint, these pitchers are very similar, with Pitcher A having established himself over a larger sample. Player B appears to have better control, with a lower walk rate, while allowing a few more hard hits. If you believe in the predictiveness of SIERA, though, Player B has been the better overall pitcher this season.
Player A is Blake Snell, who has fully entered the elite tier of starting pitchers this season. Player B, it might surprise you to learn, is Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has been excellent since rejoining the Cardinals’ rotation, and on Friday, he takes on the Brewers at Miller Park. It’s not an ideal scenario for the young hurler, as the Brewers have been given a hefty 4.34 implied run total. But there are strikeouts to be had, as five of the Brewers’ projected starters have strikeout rates north of 20 percent against righties, per PlateIQ. This comes down to upside, as there are so few arms with real strikeout stuff on Friday’s slate. Flaherty is one who does, which means he belongs in the conversation for both cash games and tournaments.
4. In his last start, Wade LeBlanc held the Red Sox scoreless over 7 ⅔ frames, striking out nine and not issuing a walk. The last pitcher to do that to the Red Sox in a game? Mike Mussina, way back in 2001. It’s easy to dismiss that start as a fluke, and while it may have been a best-case-scenario start, LeBlanc has legitimately turned a corner in 2018. The 33-year-old reliever-turned-starter has quietly been one of the best stories of 2018, and since joining the Mariners’ rotation, he’s posted a 2.06 ERA and 27.7 percent hard hits, numbers only matched by Jacob deGrom, Ross Stripling, and Justin Verlander over that frame. The Red Sox, for their part, have been shockingly bad against lefties in a small sample this year, ranking 27th in MLB in team wOBA (.294), ISO (.136), and wRC+ (81). Listen: LeBlanc could easily get blown up on Friday. The Red Sox are one of the most potent offenses in MLB. But at just $6,400, he’s at least tempting for tournaments.
5. Take a look at the pitchers who have allowed the lowest average exit velocity over the past month:
Chris Sale – 82.6 MPH
??? – 83.2 MPH
Kenley Jansen – 83.3 MPH
Who’s that mystery pitcher sandwiched between arguably the best starter (though Max might have something to say) and the best closer (though Edwin Diaz might have something to say) in MLB? It’s none other than C.C. Sabathia, who seems to have found his groove after some early-season struggles. In his last start, he showed that, occasionally, he still has the strikeout stuff to be relevant for DFS, fanning 10 Rays batters. On Friday, he faces the same Rays team, and while it’s unlikely he reaches double-digits in strikeouts again, his ability to generate soft contact combined, the Rays’ weak lineup (.149 team ISO against LHP, ranked 24th in MLB), and the likelihood of earning the win make him an interesting cash game option, particularly if the ballpark scares you off Jose Quintana.
6. Ian Desmond’s ISO by month:
March/April – .158
May – .256
June – .305
This month, he’s started looking like the Desmond of old, and while some of this is a result of HR/FB luck (something tells me he won’t keep homering on 75 percent of his fly balls moving forward…), he has reduced his ground ball rate significantly from the 73.3 percent rate in March/April, which made him tough to play, even in Coors. On Friday, he gets an excellent matchup against Miami lefty Wei-Yin Chen in Coors. This year, Desmond is doing his best to show that Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story aren’t the only lefty mashers in Colorado, posting a 153 wRC+ against southpaws Has a .338 ISO that’s at least in the same ballpark as notorious lefty killers Story (.356) and Arenado (.419). Make no mistake: Story and Arenado are top plays in all formats against the fly ball tendencies of Chen. But Desmond isn’t too far behind.
7. Here is the complete list of players in MLB history with 224 home runs and 178 stolen bases in their first 1,000 games: Mike Trout, Mike Trout, and Mike Trout. Oh, and don’t forget Mike Trout. Trout is never a bad play, but on a slate where we’re not forced to spend up on high-end arms, Trout enters must-play territory. The only caveat is that we’ve got a bad left-hander (Chen) in Coors, which could actually lower Trout’s ownership a bit for tournaments. I mean, we’re not talking single-digit ownership here; it’s still Mike Trout. But against Toronto fly ball pitcher Marco Estrada, it would surprise no one if Trout outscored all of the expensive Coors bats.
8. The MLB leader in wRC+ in the month of June with a 328 mark is not Mike Trout, or Paul Goldschmidt. It’s Joc Pederson (as long as you’re willing to adjust the filters a bit to include Pederson’s small sample of 38 plate appearances). Pederson has eight home runs this month, he’s likely hitting out of the leadoff spot, and he’s priced at just $2,400 at FanDuel, making him one of the top point-per-dollar plays of the slate on that site. The park situation is not perfect, but we’ve seen what Pederson can do when he’s locked in (#JocJamz), and he’s in a winnable matchup with Zach Wheeler. Lock him in at FanDuel if he’s batting leadoff.
9. Entering this year, Brian Dozier had ISOs of over .200 in each of his first six seasons in MLB. This year, he’s experienced a precipitous decline with an ISO of just .133 (not to mention a career-low 73 wRC+). While some of it is BABIP-driven – Dozier is being saddled with a career-low .229 BABIP this year against lefties that is – there are real causes for concern. His 2018 hard-hit rate of 24.5 percent against lefties ranks 168th of 179 qualified hitters, just below Miguel Rojas. His line drive rate has plummeted from 21.4 percent last year to 8.2 percent this year. All of these are in a sample of 68 plate appearances, though, and I’m willing to take the discount and bank on Dozier returning to his lefty-masher ways sooner rather than later. At just $3,600 and in a matchup against Rangers lefty Mike Minor, Dozier is an excellent use of funds at second base on Friday.
10. In the month of June, Lewis Brinson has a .316 ISO, not to mention a 60.0 percent hard hit rate…the same as Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman over that stretch. While the strikeouts will always be a part of Brinson’s game, he’s gradually brought his strikeout rate down this year (35.2% in March/April; 29.6% in May; 25.4% in June), and he’s finally showing some of the power that made him one of the top outfield prospects in the game entering the season. Even at Coors, it’s scary to roster this guy in cash games, especially when Jon Gray is on the mound. And if you do roster him, know that a golden sombrero (four strikeouts) is a real possibility. But don’t be afraid to take some shots on Brinson in tournaments, especially if he continues to bat out of the six-hole, as he has the upside to obliterate his $3,300 tag at DraftKings.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!